cyrusr

Nah I've not really seen any posters and not had anything save for a Labour leaflet (Birmingham Erdington FWIW). To be honest, it'll be Labour come what may as its basically been Labour since 1974 (when recreated) and even in 2019 it remained Labour. According to tactical voters it should be a Labour but really doesn't need it. Even taking into account all of the above, it is interesting that the Tory candidate is not the local councillor who has seemingly got a good reputation, lives local and got a lot in both the general and by election. It seems he didn't fancy it for some reason. Instead they some unknown guy from Derby who doesn't appear to have any connection to the area and I have not seen any real campaigning for (almost certainly will not be in the Tories 80/20). I expect a pretty big drubbing for the Tories.

If you go into the actual seat, it suggests that this is a Lib Dem target seat so for local reasons this is the target seat https://www.getvoting.org/constituency/E14001197 Stop the Tories also has this a Lib Dem recommendation as well so probably a good shout. Edit: Also Lib Dems came 2nd in 2019 so that will be probably be another reason for it to be the recommendation.

Thanks for this. So I've been looking at https://stopthetories.vote/ for tactical vote which has been endorsed by Carol Vorderman (amongst others). I like the way Best for Britain breaks down why they are making the recommendation. Obviously both seem to be working on the same principle it just would be bad if they are making different recommendations. Comparing the 2 though on some, I can see that they are suggesting the same on both which is good but do you know of a particularly tight race for the tactical vote out there to see if there is a difference of opinion?

Possibly. I mean we are talking such record lows for the Tories their system may not just handle it anymore. It'll be interesting come the final results just how close the MRPs really are and whether they need to amend their models or not. I don't know enough about the Plaid potentials (apart from what read on this forum from you and @chrisp65) so will trust you on that. It will also not be able to fully account for personal popularity of specific candidates either so that's why I thought the Clacton one was interesting as although suspect Reform will do well there (hence Farage sitting) the % seems really high still and I suspect that is more to do with the person rather than the party.

Latest prediction from Electoral Calculus https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html Current Prediction: Labour majority 272 Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Low Seats Pred Seats High Seats CON 44.7% 376 21.9% 42 80 236 LAB 33.0% 197 41.4% 321 461 504 LIB 11.8% 8 10.8% 34 63 77 Reform 2.1% 0 14.8% 0 1 7 Green 2.8% 1 5.6% 0 2 2 SNP 4.0% 48 3.5% 6 20 38 PlaidC 0.5% 2 0.7% 1 3 5 Other 1.1% 0 1.5% 0 2 3 DUP 8 7 SF 7 7 SDLP 2 2 UUP 0 1 Alliance 1 1 Prediction based on opinion polls from 05 Jun 2024 to 13 Jun 2024, sampling 19,426 people. That 1 predicted seat for Reform also appears to be for Mr Farage in Clacton.

Its because it is looking like it could swing Labour (although it is close): - https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?postcode=b73+6da Party 2019 Votes 2019 Share Pred Votes CON 31,603 60.4% 39.2% LAB 12,332 23.6% 40.0% LIB 6,359 12.2% 6.3% Green 2,032 3.9% 4.3% Reform 0 0.0% 10.2% CON Majority 19,271 36.8% 0.8% LAB Maj See overview of other seats in West Midlands. Chance of winning CON 48% LAB 52% LIB 0% Green 0% Reform 0%

If the rumours are true of them not getting any donations, then they can't afford the actual leaflets.

At least he’s only having to deal with only 1 person interrupting. And yeah he’s struggling massively with the funding point.

Nah, he’s one of them. He didn’t have Sky…

He’s too much of a lawyer trying to explain the answer before giving the answer. The whole tax issue could have been easily answered straight away “not raising NI, Income Tax and VAT” and 3 of the main taxes would have actually cut through. His lines of dad is a tool maker etc. are also not landing (could have told his team before the 1st debate anyway).

@Mandy Lifeboats I posted this link the other day in this thread: - https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/latest-news-and-research/publications/lessons-not-learnt-the-2015-2017-2019-general-elections/ This sets out alternative methods of PR including the MMP/AMS (Additional Member System). There are ways in which you can still have a "go to MP". Alternatively, if you want to keep the MP selection "high level", you could potentially give more power to local councils in order to deal with more local issues and that is where your "go to politician" is. I also breakdown the potential outcomes under PR options of the last 3 elections which TLDR probably still have meant the Brexit vote but we probably wouldn't have endorsed the Tory way forward in both 2017/9. I was reading your posts in the general election thread, and whilst I get the concerns about PR, for there to be effective "strong government" also requires competent government. Since 2010 we have had Cameron/May/Johnston/Truss/Sunak as PM and Miliband/Corbyn/Starmer as opposition. I would suggest there are more incompetent leaders there than competent and without any real doubt since 20150 (where we've had non-coalition governments) the country has got worse. All it has done is maintained a government which the majority of people do not want. With PR it will lead to coalition, but do not forget both Labour and Tories are effectively "coalitions" already. I generally think part of the issue is the mindset of coalition is bad, where rather if politicians actually put country before party and worked together, does that not provide more stability for the country rather than swinging left/right every 10/20 years?

That’s more than I expected to be fair

That is is the lowest percentage in all the age groups for reform though, so at least they are brighter than the rest of us. For what it’s worth, I don’t see there being a major issue. By 16 years old most people are making most of their choices for themselves and do all the stuff already mentioned so yeah, giving them the vote isn’t going to suddenly cause the end of civilisation (although might have just been enough to stop Brexit).

Look, if Labour aren’t 50 seats up by 10.15pm, I expect King Charles to walk into the dressing room at half time to sack Starmer and take charge for the remainder of the campaign.

From a man that thought this year would be a good year to be a Tory candidate…. I mean, the plan is moronic. It relies on him “battering” everyone who will just shoot some fish in the barrel. All that is going to happen is reducing the Tory party seat size from double figures to a single figure. To be fair, it’s as hair brain a scheme that he has been running to date so probably going to happen.