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Morley_crosses_to_Withe

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Posts posted by Morley_crosses_to_Withe

  1. Betting activity can move a market, and is a factor that definitely can affect pricing, but bookies most definitely calculate odds based on their analysis and conclusion of how likely they believe something is to happen.

    https://www.onlinebetting.org.uk/betting-guides/how-do-bookmakers-set-odds-and-make-money.html

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    Bookmakers and odds traders calculate the real probabilities of something happening based on statistics, form, history and ultimately human opinion (their own opinions, other bookies opinions and public opinion). The more data that is available the more likely the bookmaker odds are going to reflect the real probability, if the event has never happened before or there is less data on the outcomes then bookmakers will be more cautious and their odds will be lower than the real probability.

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    In financial markets if there is more interest in buying the stock of a company then it will go up, if there is more interest in selling stock then it will go down. The same basic principle basic principle is true in bookmaking.

    As I mentioned earlier the real probability of an event occurring is only one factor in setting odds.

    I wouldn’t fancy betting on us to finish in the top half (as it stands) and still anticipate a relegation battle. Not on of those where you need to keep one eye on the teams further below, just in case you get dragged down, but a full on scrap to avoid it. 

  2. On 27/07/2020 at 16:12, ender4 said:

    Elite on Netflix.    Its Spanish (dubbed into English) and has two actors from Money Heist in it. 

    Its like a mix between 13 Reasons Why, Gossip Girl and Big Little Lies. 

    Took about 2-3 episodes to get fully into it, but fantastic 'guilty pleasure' TV once you get to know the characters.

    Excellent show. It explores various interesting, fun, deep (Omar’s relationship with his father) and taboo themes (wildchild Valerio and Lucrecia).
    You develop a slow liking to characters you might initially dislike such as Guzman and the Marchioness (Ester Exposito 😍)

    I just can’t watch it in English dubbing, I found it unbearable. It’s genuinely much, much better in Spanish with English subtitles; the same goes for Money Heist. 

    • Like 1
  3. Three months later and I’m still waiting for my £500 back from Virgin Airlines. It turns out the outbound flight was cancelled and, even though I booked it through Opodo, I’ve discovered the contract is still with Virgin Airlines.

    Good article here that might be of use to others:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/jun/24/get-this-message-over-to-airlines-stop-passing-the-buck-over-refunds

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    It claims customers’ contracts are with the agent, not the airline. This is untrue. Opodo’s terms and conditions, like other booking platforms, make clear that the customer’s contract is with the travel provider. “While the contract is between the customer and travel supplier

    I’m also now being led a merry dance by Ryanair for cancelled flights to Barcelona. 

    • Sad 1
  4. Re: Virgin Airlines.

    I was due to fly with them to Vegas back in April. The kept the flight running (so THEY didn’t cancel it) therefore my automatic right to a refund didn’t apply. This is despite a) citizens of the UK were banned from entering the US  b) The FCO had advised against all but essential travel. 
    I’ve got to go down the insurance claim route or accept a voucher. Given that Virgin Atlantic look in big trouble, I’d rather not take the voucher because I don’t trust the airline will exist by next year. 
     

    tl;dr - If you’re booked with Virgin and they keep the flight running (which could happen), without decent insurance, you’re probably ****. Good luck anyway chaps, I hope it works out. 

    Dem - I think Vegas (or parts of) will be reopened by September but I don’t know how much fun it will be because things won’t be entirely normal unfortunately. 

    • Thanks 2
  5. On 29/04/2020 at 19:12, AVFC_Hitz said:

    Why do Americans say 'Creg' instead of Craig.

    Baffles me.

    There was a study that found that men called Craig are generally the most handsome and have larger schlongs.
    Admittedly, it was my own study on myself, but I think despite the small sample size, it’s rather conclusive. 

  6. On 04/05/2020 at 20:25, Paddywhack said:

    Anyone thought a decent excuse to get out of an evening zoom quiz with friends or family yet? Please share.

    Fake your own death is my advice 

    • Like 1
  7. 5 hours ago, LondonLax said:

    You can see the breakdown for children in the EuroMOMO website. Deaths amongst children 0-4 and 5-14 are well below average at the moment. Unfortunately they don’t breakdown the adult categories into small enough groups to be able to see what is happening there.

      https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

    Also, a study from Australia indicates that children do not seem to spread the virus and are far more likely to be asymptomatic. The infection rates in schools are far below the infection rates seen in the general population.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/safe-as-houses-covid-19-study-clears-nsw-schools-for-student-return-20200425-p54n6i.html

    Whilst this might be true, it’s somewhat of a concern that there’s been an observable increase in children needing intensive care treatment in London. If this trend continues, and there’s a definite link to COVID—19, then this could be quite an insidious development. 

  8. 33 minutes ago, terrytini said:

    “[In the] last three weeks, there has been an apparent rise in the number of children of all ages presenting with a multi-system inflammatory state requiring intensive care across London and also in other regions of the UK.

    “There is a growing concern that a [Covid-19] related inflammatory syndrome is emerging in children in the UK, or that there may be another, as yet unidentified, infectious pathogen associated with these cases.”

    https://www.hsj.co.uk/acute-care/exclusive-national-alert-as-coronavirus-related-condition-may-be-emerging-in-children/7027496.article
     

    edit : decided to leave this here but see my Post a bit further down page 👍

    It just gets worse! What the actual **** is this thing!? 

    Edit: there was article yesterday in the Washington Post that was saying people in their 30-40s are catching it and dying of strokes!!! 😐

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    Doctors sound alarm about patients in their 30s and 40s left debilitated or dead

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/

     

  9. 2 hours ago, Seat68 said:

    But The Strip isnt part of her jurisdiction. Its Clark County "Vegas" is under, so her demented ramblings were a case of this is what I would do. The Nevada Governer, Steve Sisolak also outlined his fairly strict reopening plan, which not as derisive, was pretty vague.  

    You’re quite right. There is more to Las Vegas than the strip, though. So Stevo isn’t wrong there, she has offered up her jurisdiction as some sort of weird and dangerous experiment. I guess she’s hoping to put pressure on Clark County to open up the strip and get things fully going again. 

    • Like 1
  10. 17 hours ago, Xela said:

    There is a used ice cream van at £85k. 

    Wow! You’ve must really believe in the ice cream business or be one seriously committed peado to splash out that much on an ice cream van!

    • Haha 1
  11. Jacob Glanville and his team are the dark horses in all this. He/They don’t seem to get much press exposure over here, but they’re quietly going about their work and hopefully will achieve the desired results. It’s his team who are also close (apparently) to finding a universal flu vaccine. I hope he doesn’t turn out to be a snake oil salesman. 

  12. 12 hours ago, Xela said:

    I don't really know what the point of the deception was. Odd. 

    Nah me neither.

    Btw, if a friend wanted me to ask how long DMs get saved on the server because he sent some photos to ‘Jenny Jones’ that he probably shouldn’t have, what should I tell my friend? :ph34r:

    • Haha 4
  13. 2 hours ago, snowychap said:

    I believe the researcher is a professor of risk management and there have been numerous responses to the articles produced on the back of the research (such as the one above from Portes) or to the paper itself, such as the twitter thread beginning with the tweet below:

    There’s another superb takedown of that research under the original Tweet. Apologies for hijacking your post, but this is also really worth people’s attention. 
     

     

    • Like 1
  14. 32 minutes ago, blandy said:

    That's about as dumb (from the tweeter) as it gets. Let the really irresponsible "what virus" folk spread it to everyone else. Sure some of them will die, but most won't. They'll be the ones causing the responsible folk to catch it and die. If I was picking a group to "let out" it would be those who could be relied upon NOT to be carelss, but to observe seperation rules, to follow the expert guidance.

    You’d hope the Twitter was being tongue in cheek and/or purposely using an exaggerated scenario to make a point (which I kind of get if that’s the angle they were taking).

    But yes - on a practical level, this wouldn’t work. However, as a silly way to make a point, I can what the Twatter poster was attempting. 

    • Thanks 1
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