Morley_crosses_to_Withe

An informative thread written by Chris Hopson (Chief Exec. of NHS providers). Some positive stuff, some not so much, and a sprinkling of caveats (such as we need to wait and see..).

4 hours ago, nick76 said:

Sorry just added in my previous post from the above Alex Sigal tweet

This seems like a big hole in the conclusion from the above tweet. So we tested and believe it’s this so we’ll say that but really we have no idea. 
 

If even legit guys are publishing this with low participants, short window, preprint and non-peer reviewed then what hope do we have!

All the things you say are very fair. There is nothing currently scientifically factual about the study. It is indeed a pre-print. I’d expect the findings will promote further studies and hopefully eventually translate into something more conclusive 

It’s been mentioned before that some people now just want to find glimmers of hope and positivity in something, anything.

I’d hope that nobody sees Tweets like that and thinks “Oooh, I’ll run out and lick the surfaces of my nearest COVID ward and gulp in the air cos if I get Omicron, I’ll be immune to Delta”. Those kind of people probably still think the vaccine contains microchips or that COVID is a hoax.

The small glimmers of positivity that are out there might just give some people a slight feeling of hope. Other people will, fairly, dismiss some of it, and need something more solid to lift their own views/thoughts about how things are and how they might play out.

edit: I concede on that Doctor Clare whoever. I didn’t think there was anything fundamentally wrong with that one particular video but, yes, it’s clear she has been shown to have certain views towards the extreme side of bonkers. 

Positive stuff! 

11 hours ago, sidcow said:

That killer vaccine is at it again. 

https://inews.co.uk/news/oxford-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-may-result-in-lower-vulnerable-people-death-toll-compared-to-europe-1371244

Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid vaccine may result in ‘lower vulnerable people death toll compared to Europe’

 

Good article. There’s a longer version of that interview somewhere in which he talks about the robust t-cell response from that “type” of vaccine. It’s likely that MRNA vaccines are better at producing antibodies whereas an adenoviral vector like AZ, although it might not be as effective against initial infection, gives you better overall and longer lasting protection against severe disease.
(I hope he’s right because I had AZ).

Couple of good articles in the Guardian over the last few days. One from Owen Jones of all people (who’s usually a misery word removed). 
 

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Public support for lockdown measures is disintegrating - a new approach is needed
We must take Covid variants like Omicron seriously, but the cycle of panicked, last-minute rules cannot continue

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/22/omicron-covid-restrictions-young-people

And a somewhat positive slant within this one:

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Omicron: bleak new year or beginning of the end for the pandemic?

Scientists are cautiously optimistic that the variant may be a sign the virus is losing its power, despite the high infection figures

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/26/omicron-bleak-new-year-or-beginning-of-the-end-for-the-pandemic

1 hour ago, nick76 said:

Wow, I thought that was a bad video and she’s been talked about before for these kind of messages of putting more people at risk.

I guess it’s done to personal perspective if you want to see everything in a very positive light then this will appeal to you whereas a negative light will see doom and gloom.  I think I’m just left of centre on this and watching doctors explain and slightly more cautious.

I do indeed as may others. Some might not.

She’s just explained the risk based on raw stats from Cambridge University. She hasn’t promoted anyone take risks or not adhere to restrictions. 

Here’s a good, positive video from a doctor who puts COVID risks into perspective in an easy to understand way. She uses data taken from Cambridge University studies.

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US Army Creates Single Vaccine Against All COVID & SARS Variants, Researchers Say

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Within weeks, scientists at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research expect to announce that they have developed a vaccine that is effective against COVID-19 and all its variants, even Omicron, as well as previous SARS-origin viruses that have killed millions of people worldwide. 

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2021/12/us-army-creates-single-vaccine-effective-against-all-covid-sars-variants/360089/

Might be something 

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Is there any good news at all on Omicron? Yes, there are small signs of hope

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https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/dec/18/is-there-any-good-news-at-all-on-omicron-yes-there-are-small-signs-of-hope

With caveats, but a little bit of Christmas cheer from the man himself:

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However, he (Chris Witty) said that cases may begin to fall quickly and that a milder illness may mean people would stay in hospital for a short period, reducing the overall burden on the health service. Fewer people may also need intensive care, he added.

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“I think most people think on the positive side, that there will be some preserved immunity, particularly on the non-antibody side, such as T-cells. Therefore it is likely someone who has one or two vaccines already will have some protection and with a booster considerably more protection against hospitalisation and death.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/16/britain-may-better-omicron-delta-says-chris-whitty/

2 minutes ago, Genie said:

That’s good news.

I feel it’s going to be the amount of people going into hospital in a short space of time which is the going to be the main challenge of this wave. 
If only we had made some overflow, covid specific hospital bed capacity? 

Like the Nightingale hospitals that Boris and his chums opened and then closed? 

This is nice news. It adjusts for age and shows more positive outcomes across all ages. 

3 hours ago, LondonLax said:

People do tend to listen to experts but they often listen to the ones who confirm their beliefs.

For example, on Omicron people who suspect it is not a big deal believe the South African head epidemiologist over the U.K. one. 

 

This is very fair.

It does now seem that there is a clear spectrum of how the data is being interpreted by different scientists/doctors/experts. There are some who view the data available through a negative lens whilst others are managing to identify positives. Personally, I’m just trying to be optimistic and I suppose I am paying more attention to those scientists/doctors/experts who feed into my optimism.
Ahh well. I’ll keep bringing the sprinkles of optimism. Some people might appreciate it. 

First you had Dominic Raab who couldn’t decide if the number of people in hospital with Omicron was 250, 9 or 10.

Then you had Boris saying there had been 780,000 cases in one day. 

And now this hilarious effort….

Same energy as a school kid who is trying to blag the answers because they didn’t do their homework. 

8 minutes ago, bobzy said:

Can you tell you right now that what I’m experiencing is not a “slight cold”  

I’m sure it’s not mate. The doctor himself didn’t say it was a slight cold; Kevin O’Sullivan twisted his comment there.

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We're almost certainly overreacting to the omicron variant

Competent responses to new variants can hardly be expected when data are interpreted and acted on at lightning speed

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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/15/danger-letting-bad-science-force-us-cycle-covid-restrictions/

Just adding another silly bint to the bin-fire. This one is Carl Heneghan: a professor of evidence-based medicine at the University of Oxford and director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine

5 minutes ago, bobzy said:

Nope, that's fair.  Which is why I said...

...and the same guy you've posted stated:

 

It's unknown.  So let's be cautious until we have the data.

Fair. He’s said some commentators are being alarmist (true) and the next day he said we need to be calm.
It’s fine imposing restrictions to manage the spread of the virus, but I do think the message sent out could be managed in a more delicate (and calmer) way rather than sounding the klaxons of impending doom. The worse case scenarios/data always seem to get pushed much harder and there doesn’t seem to be much positive data/many positive scenarios offered as a counterweight. 

19 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I'm of out of this page.  Some of the attitudes are actually getting me proper angry now and I really don't need this shit.

I really worry about this country sometimes.

Some people want to prey at the altar of Chris Witty whilst others do not. It’s not all random nut jobs on Tik Tok/Twitter who are calling for a measured approach. There are other scientists interpreting the data and calling for a calmer response. Is this consultant at the University of Oxford hospitals opinion one of a nut job on Twitter? 
 

56 minutes ago, choffer said:

I saw this post yesterday and some of the replies were worrying. People seeming to genuinely use this as evidence to support their claims that the virus was a hoax because it was impossible to catch a virus that many times. The levels of stupid sometimes are staggering. 

Yup. People do take tongue in cheek stuff way to seriously. 

Here’s a good account. The guy running it has been doing an excellent job at completely dismantling the nonsense coming out of people’s mouths (including the Welsh health ‘expert’ who claimed there were 10K patients in Welsh hospitals with COVID and Lorraine Kelly & Dr Hillary Doom’s claim that 90% of patients in hospital were unvaxxed). He makes it explicitly clear that he’s not anti vaccination but he’s bored of people misrepresenting the facts. 

13 hours ago, sidcow said:

I'm kind of worried about my parents. 

They were in the very first days of the booster so had theirs nearly 2 months ago now.  They're both elderly and my dad has plenty of underlying health issues.   How potent is their booster now after 2 months? 

I saw a report that Jethro was double jabbed AND boosted so even the full house can't stop you dying. 

My brother will be down for Christmas and I guarantee he'll be in pubs and socialising every day he's down here going back to theirs every night. 

I’m pretty sure Chris Witty said yesterday that the most vulnerable will need four jabs. 

Caveat: unsure of the source but….

edit: 

Meanwhile over in South Africa (one of the world’s unhealthiest nations)

https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2021-02-09-is-sa-the-worlds-unhealthiest-country/

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South Africa’s omicron Covid outbreaks may already be running out of steam

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With the delta variant, around three per cent of infections – one in 33 – were resulting in death, but now that figure has slumped to 0.5 per cent – one in 200 – the lowest it has been throughout the pandemic in South Africa and 10 times lower than in September last year.

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At a briefing in London on Monday, Matthew Snape, professor in paediatrics and vaccinology at the University of Oxford, said the South Africa data suggested vaccines and previous infections were giving some protection against the variant.

"In areas where we know omicron has been circulating for a bit longer, such as in South Africa, they are not seeing severe disease, maybe because they actually still have enough cross-reactive antibodies," he said.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/12/13/south-africas-omicron-covid-outbreaks-may-already-running-steam/

We can debate demographics all day but S.A can seemingly give us some hope. 

If Omicron causes serious issues in this country given we’ve double vaxxed a larger amount of the population,  delivered >20M booster jabs, with 95% of adults having antibodies then there really is absolutely no hope. It’s never going to end.

1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said:

It is underfunded.