ianrobo1 Posted January 9, 2009 Author Share Posted January 9, 2009 the test of active will be seen now the trouble for me is that the result wont be seen until years down track ..same as many people won't have paid for Christmas yet , just in the case of "governments" it could be 10 + years before the damage kicks in Brown has an election to face at some point and needs the "now" ..the country needs a long term strategy that goes for every other major country doesn't it with a globalised economy we can not go alone and tglonalisation is a major cause of this added to that you dod not answer my question did you, what would you prefer to do abotut he situation we face ourselves in, that has to be dealt with (or not) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drat01 Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 .the country needs a long term strategy Tony I dont think you can be so isolationist though to say or to imply that it is a this country thing (if that makes sense - I know it probably doesn't read well). As said the worlds countries are all bumping off each other at the moment, look at the impact in Turkey for instance that a squabble between Russian and Ukraine had. A successful country or group of countries will need flexibility and common grounds to prosper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 Tony I dont think you can be so isolationist though to say or to imply that it is a this country thing I've not done any checking on this but for example , did any other countries cut their VAT rate ? some of the issues may well be global and some solutions will also be .. but ultimately only the UK government will have to pay back what we borrow at this stage remember back in November we were being told "Britain was better prepared than the rest of the world for the forthcoming economic crisis " ... I don't think that is actually the case though ..does anyone ?? I'm sure you've seen gamblers who think the solution to clawing back their loses on the previous race is to double their stack on the next race ..that's kinda where we seem to be ..I was working in the industry when Leeson was running up loss after loss and borrowing more in the hope it would cover the previous loss .. he became a desperate man ..i just can't help but think the current solution is following leeson'onics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 what would you prefer to do about he situation we face ourselves in, taxes should be cut and it should be funded by cutting public expenditure For me , our salvation rests with the private sector creating wealth, creating jobs and paying salaries – yet only the private sector appears to be shedding jobs while the public sector lives in its own privileged and pensioned universe. people working will generate extra revenue for the government , reduce borrowing which will increase the attractiveness of Sterling to other investors ... but I'm no economists so i could be taking us down the same path of doom ..who knows ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianrobo1 Posted January 9, 2009 Author Share Posted January 9, 2009 in that case Tony all major countries are **** !! EDIT : answered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianrobo1 Posted January 9, 2009 Author Share Posted January 9, 2009 taxes should be cut and it should be funded by cutting public expenditure thanks so richard said much the same, it is Tory policy so can I ask how cutting the expenditure of 40% of GDP helps to rest a decline in GDP ? what happens if a large amount of the tax cuts are saved ? this is the reason Labour did not do it I would argue this is the policy in the 80's and 90's that made the recessions worse ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 but I'm no economists I'm not sure you're one let alone two. :winkold: so i could be taking us down the same path of doom ..who knows ?? Going by the scenario you painted, it would depend on which boat one was on. The good ship private sector (having jettisoned those they didn't want) would woosh on to the next jolly paradise. I very much doubt it would wait for the public sector fleet behind it stopping to pick up the millions of strugglers and stragglers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 it is Tory policy is it ? i don't actually know tbh ... ( btw , i thought their policy was to do nothing ??)you asked me my solution and I just tried to throw a few solutions around based on common sense approach really I hadn't read back and seen Richards reply but if it was similar to mine then he's clearly a smart man :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianrobo1 Posted January 9, 2009 Author Share Posted January 9, 2009 it is Tory policy is it ? i don't actually know tbh ... ( btw , i thought their policy was to do nothing ??)you asked me my solution and I just tried to throw a few solutions around based on common sense approach really I hadn't read back and seen Richards reply but if it was similar to mine then he's clearly a smart man :-) it is tory policy, osbourne said it this week, tax cuts to be paid for by public spending cuts always is Tory philosphy in a recession, it always makes them worse a recession is about the decline of GDP onviously, how does cutting some of the 40% of GDP help ? remember most of the major borrowing is now on the banks, you say we should not over borrow so shoudl we not have bailed out the banks because HBOS and RBS were close to going ? BTW remember the german finance minister who had a go at Brown well yesterday they took control of 25% of commerzbank, their 2nd largest one as part of recaptialisation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drat01 Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 For me , our salvation rests with the private sector creating wealth, creating jobs and paying salaries – yet only the private sector appears to be shedding jobs while the public sector lives in its own privileged and pensioned universe. people working will generate extra revenue for the government , reduce borrowing which will increase the attractiveness of Sterling to other investors ... No, No, No for me on that idea The perfect solution is a mix of private and state. The private sector has **** up royally and to think that model is the one to get us out of this difficulty is a wrong 'un. The private sector will go where the money is world wide, e.g. cheap goods from China etc. The trick to all of this is the balance between the state, which has protected a lot of the private sector - which really does oppose your statement of "public sector lives in its own privileged and pensioned universe." The state can look after the country as a whole and with unity with others countries on key factors it makes it easier. The worlds biggest private sector state is one of the main causes for these problems, so excuse me mate if I don't subscribe to theor way of thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 BTW remember the german finance minister who had a go at Brown well yesterday they took control of 25% of commerzbank, their 2nd largest one as part of recaptialisation Did he have a go at him for bank recapitalisation though? I thought it was only about VAT. I'm not sure (hence my question). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drat01 Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 BTW remember the german finance minister who had a go at Brown well yesterday they took control of 25% of commerzbank, their 2nd largest one as part of recaptialisation Damn I meant to post about that. I was in Germany this week and the thought amongst the good people of Munich I spoke to was that the German chappy was an idiot. The German's know that they are living on borrowed (see what I did there? :-) ) time and the big companies are looking further afield for future money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianrobo1 Posted January 9, 2009 Author Share Posted January 9, 2009 totally 100% **** agree Ian, those who adovcate the private sector are the ones who have led to this ... and that includes all governments of all colours the notion of less states control when the governments have had to save numerous large banks is benusig to say the least BTW are we really the worse off country Spanish industrial output fell by 15.1% in November, compared with the same month one year ago, the biggest fall on record and a sign of a deep recession from the bbc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 always is Tory philosphy in a recession, it always makes them worse how many recessions under the Tories have we we had ? Whose to say it made it worse ? , we don't really know what reaction a different course of action would have caused ?? and as prevously mentioned we came out of it strong so you can argue the medicine was worth swallowing ?? a recession is about the decline of GDP obviously, only if you subscribe to what i believe is a flawed yardstick for measuring recession .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianrobo1 Posted January 9, 2009 Author Share Posted January 9, 2009 BTW remember the german finance minister who had a go at Brown well yesterday they took control of 25% of commerzbank, their 2nd largest one as part of recaptialisation Did he have a go at him for bank recapitalisation though? I thought it was only about VAT. I'm not sure (hence my question). well he was on about the whole thing about increased public debt ... Germany clearly will have to do the same as their export markets shrink how many peopel buying BMW's, Merc's etc ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 how many recessions under the Tories have we we had ? There were a couple within about a decade of each other, weren't there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianrobo1 Posted January 9, 2009 Author Share Posted January 9, 2009 always is Tory philosphy in a recession, it always makes them worse how many recessions under the Tories have we we had ? Whose to say it made it worse ? , we don't really know what reaction a different course of action would have caused ?? and as prevously mentioned we came out of it strong so you can argue the medicine was worth swallowing ?? a recession is about the decline of GDP obviously, only if you subscribe to what i believe is a flawed yardstick for measuring recession .... 2 recessions tony and you knwo it, everyone accepts the know measure of two consective quarters of GDP decline what do you measure it by ? Iteresting bit from Rober Peston's Blog The shadow chancellor, George Osborne, today called for a three-pronged strategy to stimulate the flow of credit: state insurance for £50bn of lending to business; a cut in the cost of the capital that's been provided by the Treasury to banks and also a reduction in the fees levied for guaranteeing interbank lending; and a new Bank of England facility to swap corporate loans for cash. This would amount to a substantial extension of the nationalisation of the credit-creation process - and Osborne acknowledges that more draconian nationalisation may yet be necessary. It's quite something when the Tories complain that a Labour-controlled Treasury is being too cautious in rolling back the boundaries of the private sector and too feeble when pumping up the role of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 those who adovcate the private sector are the ones who have led to this well i'd argue It is the result of domestic policies and problems that could, and should, have been alleviated but which were allowed to fester ..but I guess we all have different view points A healthy dose of private sector expertise is required to advise on how to plan and execute major capital spending projects ..IMO .... and that also means aggressive and strategic reform of the public sector, not a cack-handed crack at balancing the books while the economy collapses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianrobo1 Posted January 9, 2009 Author Share Posted January 9, 2009 those who adovcate the private sector are the ones who have led to this well i'd argue It is the result of domestic policies and problems that could, and should, have been alleviated but which were allowed to fester ..but I guess we all have different view points A healthy dose of private sector expertise is required to advise on how to plan and execute major capital spending projects ..IMO .... and that also means aggressive and strategic reform of the public sector, not a cack-handed crack at balancing the books while the economy collapses domestic polcies ?? so we had control over US banks lending to the very poor who would never pay the recession started in the credit crunch in the US the world accepts that private sector so called espertise got us to where we are now ?? BTW Network rail in it;s former guise was a private company they made a complete **** up of the upgrades didn't they ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 everyone accepts the known measure of two consective quarters of GDP decline no they don't , that's very old school and we did it to death in one of the previous threads i'm sure :-) ..as i have said previously it's flawed .. 2 successive drops ..so a 5 % rise followed by a drop of .5 % and another of .5% means you are in a recession ..it's kinda flawed would you not agree There were a couple within about a decade of each other, weren't there? the first recession can hardly be the blame of the Tories can it ..they inherited an economy with inflation of 27% The last recession occurred between 1990-92. Since then the economy has enjoyed the longest sustained growth of national output for over thirty years.. so why are the coffers empty ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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