When will there be a new Prime Minister

[Gringo]

Following a comment by bicks on the party relaunch thread and due to the lack of polls on this site thought it might be worth getting a measure of peoples views. We were discussing this yesteday over lunch yesterday - outlining the possible scenarios, so here are some of them.

Q: Is brown irreperably damaged and if so, how long can he last.

Option 1: Gone before end August.

Would require a cabinet revolt or a large group of MPs resigning the whip and triggering a vote of no confidence as there is no formal route to oust him before the party conference. Such moves could be triggered by losing the upcoming crewe by-election which would make those MPs in marginals rather squeamish about their chances against such a large swing.

Option 2: October revolution

20% of MPs sign a vote of no confidence in GB at the party conference in september triggering a leadership challange and defeat in October.

Option 3: Winter of discontent

If the economy isn't turning round and the polls are still against them could the suits force brown into his successor a full year and two budgets to make his own mark

Option 4: May day massacre

Another disastrous set of local elections forcing him over the edge.

Option 5: Last chance saloon.

At the 2009 party conference the party would have to unite behind their leader or drop the pilot and bring in a fresh face with none of the mess on his hands.

Option 6: The country decides

Brown avoids the knives and leads his party into the next general election but the tories gain control (possibly propped up by cleggs army of absenters)

Option 7: Never

The supreme leader will lead the party to a glorious victory in May 2010 and go on and on and on

[The_Rev]

It will go to the election. And so much could happen politically between now and spring 2010 the result of the election is impossible to call from this far out.

[Awol]

3 - Winter of discontent for me, possibly sooner if the unions start to throw their weight around. Either way I think it will be the unions that do for him, directly or indirectly.

IMO any Labour supporter should welcome his end because Brown will not win a GE - no way in hell.

[bickster]

3- winter of discontent for me

And I'm responsible for another Poll

[Richard]

It will go to a general election as I cannot see anyone in the party formerly known as the socialists wanting it

[thetrees]

General election.

There are too many sinister people in Brown's camp for the party to turn on him