The House Price Crash Thread

[mykeyb]

I bought my house to live - yes it has gone down in value and at some point will no doubt go back up again.

If I decide to sell I will get less than I would have done 18 months ago, similarly the house I would want to buy has gone down in value too.

What is there to panic about?

[ender4]

The panic comes if you can't afford your mortgage.

also, those people who bought multiple 'buy-to-let' properties, who are finding the rent doesn't cover the mortgage. Idiots!

also, those people who wanted to make a fast buck from increasing house prices, and bought purely for the capital appreciation!! hahaha....

[ianrobo1]

The panic comes if you can't afford your mortgage.

also, those people who bought multiple 'buy-to-let' properties, who are finding the rent doesn't cover the mortgage. Idiots!

also, those people who wanted to make a fast buck from increasing house prices, and bought purely for the capital appreciation!! hahaha....

yep for them but you also have the people who got made unemployed etc.

thing is property has sepculation is a market condition I think few of us have sympathy for those who got caught.

and I said before I have little sympathy with those who have mortgages should have got proper and independent advice.

thing is for a few years property speculation will die off but the next round will happen and fuelled by programmes like grand designs, property ladder etc. it will satrt again because we never learn.

[drat01]

I bought my house to live - yes it has gone down in value and at some point will no doubt go back up again.

If I decide to sell I will get less than I would have done 18 months ago, similarly the house I would want to buy has gone down in value too.

What is there to panic about?

Mike - I agree with you in respect to my house.

[Gringo]

I bought my house to live - yes it has gone down in value and at some point will no doubt go back up again.

If I decide to sell I will get less than I would have done 18 months ago, similarly the house I would want to buy has gone down in value too.

What is there to panic about?

You may not have noticed, but the crash in the property market has led to the biggest economic crisis since the 30's. What's the panic indeed.

[ender4]

yep for them but you also have the people who got made unemployed etc.

yes, i feel sorry for those people who circumstances suddenly change (unemployment, illness, etc).

Generally, most people should just ignore all the credit crunch alarmist media, and just carry on doing what they were, just tightening their belts a bit, and the storm will pass in a couple of years.

If you have the money in the bank, now is probably a good time to be looking to buy cars, household goods, etc... as you can probably get good discounts.

[mykeyb]

I bought my house to live - yes it has gone down in value and at some point will no doubt go back up again.

If I decide to sell I will get less than I would have done 18 months ago, similarly the house I would want to buy has gone down in value too.

What is there to panic about?

You may not have noticed, but the crash in the property market has led to the biggest economic crisis since the 30's. What's the panic indeed.

or vice versa

[ianrobo1]

totally agree mate now is the time for bagrain hunting and for some that is already happening

however it is a fact for those with mortgages coming out of fixed deals the next few years will be difficult

[Gringo]

Housing market 'far worse' than figures suggest

Online estate agent says latest figures underestimate fall in prices by two-thirds

House prices across the UK have already fallen far further than official data and market indicators suggest, Rightmove, the online estate agent warned yesterday, as it revealed that up to 300 estate agents were quitting its service every month.

While the latest figures from leading mortgage lenders such as Halifax suggest that prices are down by 15 per cent from their peak, Rightmove said the falls were up to two-thirds higher.

Miles Shipside, the commercial director of Rightmove, said: "Estate agents tell us that the actual prices that are being achieved [initially between buyers and sellers] for property are down by about 20 to 25 per cent beneath peak asking prices. That has not come out in the national indices."

His revelation suggests that house prices have not only fallen much further than the highly regarded surveys of Halifax and Nationwide, which both track house prices based on agreed mortgages, but could also be lagging behind the situation on the ground.

Short and shallow?

[snowychap]

Mortgage lending increases by 7%

Mortgage lending increased by almost 7% in October but remains well below last year's level, figures showed today.

The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said gross mortgage lending totalled £18.7bn in October, up from September's record low of £17.4bn.

Despite interest rate cuts in October and November, which have brought the Bank of England base rate down to 3% from 5%, the market was still stymied by a lack of mortgage funding, the CML said.

As a result, the gross lending figure, which does not take into account repayments and redemptions, remains the second lowest this year and is 44% lower than last October when lending totaled £33.4bn.

The CML's direct general, Michael Coogan, said the outlook for the mortgage market remained weak and more government action was needed to free up lending.

...more on link

[Jon]

Housing market 'far worse' than figures suggest

Online estate agent says latest figures underestimate fall in prices by two-thirds

House prices across the UK have already fallen far further than official data and market indicators suggest, Rightmove, the online estate agent warned yesterday, as it revealed that up to 300 estate agents were quitting its service every month.

While the latest figures from leading mortgage lenders such as Halifax suggest that prices are down by 15 per cent from their peak, Rightmove said the falls were up to two-thirds higher.

Miles Shipside, the commercial director of Rightmove, said: "Estate agents tell us that the actual prices that are being achieved [initially between buyers and sellers] for property are down by about 20 to 25 per cent beneath peak asking prices. That has not come out in the national indices."

His revelation suggests that house prices have not only fallen much further than the highly regarded surveys of Halifax and Nationwide, which both track house prices based on agreed mortgages, but could also be lagging behind the situation on the ground.

Short and shallow?

maybe. :winkold:

Mortgage lending increases by 7%

TBH it hasn't been that shallow it seems, but hopefully, once the mortgage companies start lending money again, it could be shorter than some fear.

[ianrobo1]

if they start lending there are some right bargains out there but as they start to lenbd again a further problem is people not taking them out due to job security

[Gringo]

if they start lending there are some right bargains out there but as they start to lenbd again a further problem is people not taking them out due to job security

If you've got 30% deposit you can get 5% deals. If you've got 25% and a sparkling clean credit history, you are playing the 5.5%+. Less than 25% deposit you are struggling - there are offers out there, but lenders have tightened up their credit scoring to an extent that they can refuse most of the business whilst still pretending to honour their pledge to the govt to make the same amount of funding available.

[PaulMcgrathsknees]

About a fortnight ago:

Here are the current rates loan to value 90%

Lloyds 6.69%

HSBC 6.58%

Nationwide 6.59%

Northern Rock 7.69%

Interesting to check back next week! The housing market needs 10% deposit first time buyers to get it going again.

This week:

And ten days later.......

Lloyds - 6.59%

HSBC - 6.99%

Nationwide - 6.59%

Northern Rock - No mortgages offered

So a 1.5% base rate cut means:

0.1% cut

0.41% increase

nothing

or downright rufusal respectively.

You can forget house prices surviving in 2009 too. Minimum 10% further drop to come yet. And I think that is optimistic.

My views posted on one of the other threads. Probably sits better on here

[snowychap]

Repossession of homes up by 12%

The number of properties repossessed by mortgage lenders rose by 12% to 11,300 in the third quarter of the year, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said.

The number of borrowers in arrears also went up compared with the previous quarter, by 8% to 168,000.

The number of repossession orders made by the courts in England and Wales rose by 3% to 29,516 in the same period.

The figures suggest that many more people are likely to lose their homes as the economy falls into recession.

"The government is taking action to protect the most vulnerable families from repossession," said the Housing Minister Margaret Beckett.

"[This includes] a new court protocol to make sure lenders are exploring all avenues before making a claim in the courts, a £200m mortgage rescue scheme, more free legal representation in county courts, and more free debt advice."

Worsening picture

CML director general Michael Coogan said its forecast of 45,000 repossessions this year had not changed in the light of the figures, but it would be "premature" to predict what might happen in 2009.

.......

While the number of homes being seized by lenders has started to rise steeply in the past few years, they are still nowhere near as high as in the depths of the last property slump in the early 1990s.

The number of repossessions this year now stands at 30,200.

This is higher than the 26,200 for the whole of last year, and far higher than the figure of just 8,200 in 2004.

By contrast 75,500 homes were taken back in 1991.

...more on link

[ianrobo1]

well a bit of a shock today, who would have thought that the government would in effect have a mortgage protection scheme the Troies got rid of in the 80's

that was one out of the blue

[Gringo]

Well, this thread stared nealy exactly a year ago with the simple premise

Will the average house be worth more or less in real terms in 12 months time

The average house price in January 2008 was £183,959

The average house price in January 2009 is £156,828

judging for inflation that means the average house price has fallen (in real terms) 20.8% in the past calendar year.

So for all those keeping count, anyone who voted "More" -200 points, all those taking the easier option of "Less" get +10 points.

Anyone want to start a house price 2010 thread or all too depressing? I'm sure there are some miserable people out there that just want the misery to keep on rolling. So bring it on.

[ianrobo1]

can ot believe it will be another 20% fall but who **** knows what the next 12 months may bring

where is the floor ?

at leats in terms of multiples of average income it looks better at about 5/6 times rather than 7/8 is the floor whene average is 4 times average salrary say £120k another 20% fall then ?

[Gringo]

can ot believe it will be another 20% fall but who **** knows what the next 12 months may bring

where is the floor ?

Some analysts say the world has lost 40% of asset value in the world in the past 12 months - which would mean that the floor is far below what we currently have (that would hint at a further 25% fall to come).

Me don't believe that all that much. The average house (ie the one you are living in) still has a rental yield of +6%.

The problem lies in all the unsold shoeboxes built around town/city centres. If the govt takes them off the books and into social housing the price will settle in 2010/2011. For this year, lack of mortgage funding will keep driving house prices lower by 10-15% (real terms) this year.

That is of course if the NWO maintain control. If the riots spread then asset value becomes a nonsense.

[trimandson]

About a fortnight ago:

Here are the current rates loan to value 90%

Lloyds 6.69%

HSBC 6.58%

Nationwide 6.59%

Northern Rock 7.69%

Interesting to check back next week! The housing market needs 10% deposit first time buyers to get it going again.

This week:

And ten days later.......

Lloyds - 6.59%

HSBC - 6.99%

Nationwide - 6.59%

Northern Rock - No mortgages offered

So a 1.5% base rate cut means:

0.1% cut

0.41% increase

nothing

or downright rufusal respectively.

You can forget house prices surviving in 2009 too. Minimum 10% further drop to come yet. And I think that is optimistic.

My views posted on one of the other threads. Probably sits better on here

A little late on this, but what would you prefer? You're quoting SVRs, not trackers, and it you sit on an SVR you get what you deserve, it's common knowledge how mortgages work, especially if you have one.

And another thing, even if they are tracker rates, surely you'd sooner a bank be prudent about the business they take on then they go bump and lose all your savings pensions etc? Banks don't want the business, the whole market is a threat at the moment because of poor media reporting, panicing idiots, and fat cats taking too much cash.

If a bank can make £1b net in a year, a bank should have resources for TEN years of this kind of shit. I work this shit every day, I see the figures, the exposure, the truth about the whole situation for one of the biggest building societies, in the (now) biggest banking group in Europe.

Figures and situations are not as clear cut as you may think, people would be wise to rent for a bit in my opinion.