blandy

Not exactly, no. From his point of view ( not one that I necessarily share) he might claim that the best share price he can negotiate benefits all the shareholders. His motives for getting the best price may or may not be entirely selfish, and to some extent you can't blame anyone for asking whatever they want for something they want to sell. However on planet capitalism, reality has to set in, and a reasonable price be agreed if a sale is to be agreed. I would suspect that Ellis would like to have certain "priveleges" as part of any deal for his shares. If these personal demands prevent any deal, then he would be acting against the best interests of the shareholders, but (bizzarely) could claim they were in the overall best interests of the club (retain board position...experience...benefit new people...) Whether people see him as a deluded fantasist, a selfish egotist, or a genuinely charming and delightful man, or a mixture of all 3 and more is entirely up to them. I know what I think.

So let's have a recap. Look at the sequence of events and what we can deduce: The Ray Ranson thing opened the way to an extent, in moneyed circles, but Ellis wouldn't accept the offered (or suggested) 47 million price. Nevertheless, that someone had been interested, and a guide price in excess of 47 mill was now known. Neville and the Comers got in touch with Ellis, basing their contact on a possible 64 million formal offer (subject to...etc) Ellis said "OK" Talks about possible future role for Ellis.... agreeable to Ellis (Big step at the time) The there seem to have been 2 issues - 1 - the part of the consortium seemed to be having some second thoughts, and the price, on closer inspection of the books, and general direction being taken by Prem League football seems to have pointed towards a consortium view that the price was too high. Ellis meanwhile was drawing in the expenditure, keen to see the club's outgoings minimised in order to bolster the "asking price" in terms of Due Diligence (hence the no spend on transfers or loans) This suggests he was keen to sell at the price and consitions tentatively discussed. - I've said all this last year, sorry Then the thing began to falter. As the money people started thinking seriously about the exact value, Ellis would have perhaps held the view that he was on to a good thing. The price is way more than the club is actually worth in LSE terms, and he would get to keep a position where he could still Lord it about. But the Comers would perhaps have started to see that the price originally intimated, and on which the discussions had been based is too high. Neville, as a fan is keen to plough on, so the due dilligence starts in earnest, and there;s various "all OK' utterings from him. Ellis gets wind of the nervousness of the Comers and having let the thought of all that money and some peace and respect and whatever settle in his psyche, starts getting more anxious. At this people around him start to be a little bolder, despite the experience of previous "perhaps you should seek a buyer" proponents, Ansell and Langham. SO Ellis starts to fret that really these Irishmen need to get a move on. Buit they don't. They keep schtum, leaving Neville to soothe. Ellis isn't having it. Comers are feeding the irish media "about to pull out, too expensive..." (bargaining chip, or just the truth?) Ellis responds with what he can "Someone Else interested" rumours and gentle "deadline hints" Eventually it seems to me, Ellis has played his last card - "Appointing someone respected to seek other bidders" This is the last part of the dance. He's saying "enough - Put up or shut up - The club's here for sale, I want to sell, the Price is 64 mill, take it or leave it, I'm not backing down." I doubt the Comers will back down either. So we're about to see whether Ellis is lucky. If he is someone else will be found, willing top pay 64 mill. If he's not, they won't and he will not be able to sell the club. Something which he has set his mind on. No doubt he is in 2 minds some of the time, when he's feeling good, he wants to stay, but mostly he feels tired and wants to get it over with, now. Now the club is formally for sale, he's done for. All the cards played. If the Comers walk, no-one else will offer him both money and a chance to stay on in some way. He won't get his third of 64 million and he won't be at Villa much more. Catch 22 - do what he hates - back down on a price, break his own delusions of his master negotiator status, shatter his own delusions, or lose the money. He's now a goner, in reality. It's hit home. When someone is disappointed and feels defeated, they become more susceptible to illness. How hard can it be to swallow your pride, when washed down with say 17 million quid instead of 21 million? When the alternative is nothing and nothingness? If he drops the price, then he can still claim to be doing so for the good of the club and emerge with some of his self esteem halo intact. If it falls through he's gonna cop some flak, get no money and soon be a footnote. Which is the better next Club announcement for Ellis "the club advises that following completion of the AVIL due dilligence process, an agreement, subject to shareholder approval..sold.. .(say) 53 million quid...to AVIL..Ellis...life President..allows club to progress.... " or "Club announces that following board meetings, Mr Ellis..steps down...AV continues to seek buyer...ill health" followed weeks later by "minutes silence following the death of...."

IF the takeover is blown out by Ellis, I'll be joining the stay away from VP people till Ellis is gone. I'll settle for away games only. The club is not being run properly. It's hardly being run at all. No plan, no properly constituted board, no fecking clue. The decision making part of the board, the executives are ellis - sick, weak, befuddled and wanting to sell, and career administrator Steve Stride. Capable enough as a club secretary, but.... No finance director, no chief executive. And guess what, we've no idea more than day to day cut backs, no planning, no vision, no money and a on / off takeover. They've had my money for decades, now they can do something to earn my continued custom, as one of the people they "market" their wares to. I'll support the team at away games, and Villa can have my money if/when they show they have the feintest clue what to do with it.

turn it all around, Gareth - i.e. Can you seriously see Aston Villa without Ellis...etc. Maybe, that's the mindset he's in? he's 82 and suffering from the passages of time and ill-health Maybe that's how he looks at it? And the rest follows....

You may be right, but I think if it is, it's a forlorn hope, I reckon. Ranson at 45/6 million was maybe a tad low, but only a tad, and 64 is too high, he's got someone apparently in the right region, price wise, he's got "other issues", apparently. He's not daft.

This makes sense, but I wonder if it hasn't changed a bit. By that I mean that, if (no if about it) he has had another medical procedure, albeit one we are told was, you know, nothing much, nothing malignant...well, if that was me and I was 82, I would, I suspect, after a major major heart op in the summer, and a recent prostate cancer battle, maybe not be of the same mindset I used to be (in his shoes). It wouldn't be about money, it would be about some self respect - wanting to behave decently, to my own satisfaction. i.e. maybe if we accept that he is willing, and indeed keen to sell, then it's not so much the price that would be the issue, as a kind of kinship and mutual acceptability in the deal. Am I selling to the right people? will they (ahem) look after "my" property as "well" as I did? I might be thinking that completing the deal will happen, as long as "they" behave well. Are they the "right sort" The price - 20 million to me, or 15, is kind of immaterial. These things, call them foibles, or whatever, will maybe be the crucial ones, from Ellis' viewpoint. Basically he's in the end game, isn't he. He has some control over matters, but not the power of control he used to have. We all know this. The board know it to, as do the media. Thinking about it tonight, I feel more confident, rather than less that the deal will happen. Which isn't perhaps saying much, as I have been very, very, sceptical all along. To me it depends if he will accept a lower price, and if so how much lower. Maybe 5.40 would be his aim, now, realistically Maybe the Comers will be looking at around 4.80 as their ideal price. Split that, and you have around 5.10, or 56-7 million quid. We'll see.

Yes. Exactly right. It's that I meant by "reap what you sow".

we do have "short term debt". The last figures are now 6 months old - before all the recent spend, obviously. Last time turnover fell, and it will do so again. Training ground is on top of the transfer spend. No I'm not happy about it either, Ian, but the worry is not the lack of spend, it's the lack of revenue. And it's getting worse.

There's a great deal wrong with the premise of that question, Ian, I would wager. "No debts" - I think this is wrong. "cut the wages" - will be wrong again "can't afford" - not true either. Won't afford is more accurate "spending 8 mill on a training ground" - around 3 mill a year for 3 years (total of 8 ) might be part of the reason. Or to put it another way In April, the club (Ellis) promised 20 million for new players in the summer. Then didn't spend anything before the season ticket deadline - cue massive drop in season ticket sales, and big drop in gates. = Much reduced income. The late spend on bouma and Baros took the overall net spend to 10 million by the end of August, and the wages will have gone back up again, after last years drop. So basically outgoings are much higher, income much lower = Big losses. Capital spend on the Training ground = more losses That's why. The financial results I'd say will be a "reap what you have sown" thing, showing Ellis's approach to have utterly failed. Add in the takeover and Ellis's reluctance towards debt and borrowings and you've got a mess. Of course Bruce Langham will be able to...Oh, I forgot, he f*cked off too. 'nuther half a mill doen the pan, and no proper executive planning or vision.

Anyone ever bought or sold a car? Anyone ever said "I just can't afford 600 quid, look I've got 500 cash, in my pocket here, now..." and then waved the cash around to show you have it? is all this any different, really? The test is whether it works, or whether it gets blown out. We'll find out soon enough who is keener - Ellis to sell, or Comers to buy. As I said at the start of December "If after considering the resuts of the due dilligence rummage through the workings and books of the club, the group decide they still want the club, I am of the view that the price will need to come down for it to go ahead. And come down a fair bit."

All that is very true. Equally, though, to follow the Car sales analogy, how mnay punters go into a showroom "expressing an interest" and how many actually buy a car - it isn't all down to the salesman each time. I'm not in the habit of defending Ellis, normally, and I'm not going to start here. But WE DON"T KNOW what is or isn't going on. All of our posts are pure supposition. I've said all along that I'm sceptical, that the alleged price is too high and I'd be surprised if a deal happens on the terms reported. Again, just guessing, if say, an approach is made talking about 5.80 a share, (which IMO is too high) and then it turns out after closer examination that the original 5.80 suggestion is too high, then none of that is Ellis' fault. There's a huge bundle of evidence with which to condemn Ellis, and JC did a grand article on the front page putting a lot of it forward, but I'm unsure that w know yet enough about this alleged takeover thing to blame Ellis on anything more than instinct (though that may well turn out to be a good call)

There's a lot of chatter - 30 odd pages of it - on something most people would (with conditions) probably like to see happen. The thing is none of us actually know much. As far as I can tell what we do know is that Neville/Comers have approached Ellis and Petchey with an interest in maybe buying them out. Both appear to have rsponded with a cautious "OK" Petchey because he would get his profit on his investment and Ellis because he would get 20 million quid and (bizzarely) get to keep his "job". We also know that no formal offer has been made. We also know that the Comers/Neville are looking at the books. Due Dilligence is a 2 way street, however, in which both sides of a deal check to make sure that what they think they are getting out of the deal, really is what they will get. We don't know whether the hold up is down to Ellis/Petchey or down to Neville/Comers. The club has said almost nothing and the Prospective New owners not much more. Maybe this is all down to LSE regulations on take-overs and share price sensitivity, or maybe one or both sides have a vested interest in keeping their cards close to their chest. That the club has said "yes we've had an enquiry which we are taking seriously (plus some bluster about Ellis...best interests of Villa..take the club forward...etc) and Neville has said "Ellis..nice to deal with...next week...no not next week, maybe another 2..." can lead you to read whatever you want into the situation. Some think Ellis must be holding it up, some that Neville/Comer are chancers, or are out to asset strip, or are doing things entirely properly... It's disappointing perhaps that as shareholders and/or fans we are not being told more about any potential plans the new lot might have for the club, but our time will come. IF Petchey and Ellis do sell, then the new guys will be required to offer the same terms for our chares, and there are a lot of us - than 25 million quids worth of us (approx). If as fans we are convinced they have the good of the club at heart, and will put money in, are here for the long term betterment of the club, then a good number of us (and a lot of money) will not need to be spent on buying our shares - i.e. a lot of us could say "no ta, we'll hold on to the shares, saving you having to pay for them, and the money can go to bettering the club, in line with what you've told us" On the other hand, if they don't tell us what they are up to, we may sell - and they have to buy, and then they're 25 million quid worse off than they would have been (at the extreme). There may be other ways of looking at it, but I think that the silence will need to end soon, from Neville/Comers if they are to to a) save themselves some money, and be trusted. Equally, a statement from the club, detailing the current situation, and informing all the shareholders as to what is up would be an exercise in good communication. But, still, no offer has actually been made. I'd like to know what the reason is. Price too high?, or potential for earnings not as good as believed? or what?

He's a strange old mix, Ellis. There's the half truths (the 100 grand was a loan, but he doesn't say that) and delusions ( he may have "played", but not as a league professional player - he's also claimed to be a table tennis champion, a boxing champion the inventor of [oh, you've heard that one].) And then he claims to be hurt because we think he's a serial bullshitter, selfish and mediocre. A few years ago it appeared arrogant, utterly self-centred and frankly ridiculous, now it just seems sad.

Hold on a mo'. Isn't the dealine one imposed by the club? I heard that it was the club getting frustrated that the comers/neville are taking a long time, not the other way round. I'm no Ellis fan, and want the bloke out, but I don't think, from the scant facts that we have that Ellis is the one delaying things directly. It may be that the Comers/Neville are not quite as convinced as they might be that they should go ahead, at the price. It may be that Neville is keen, but the real money men are not quite as keen. It may be that Neville has said what he did as a "lubricant" to soothe the worries of Ellis. I'm not convinced, myself, that Ellis isn't implicated in the reported "complications", but that's just me not trusting Ellis maybe. I do wonder whether the apparent desire to keep Ellis on contrasts with the financial considerations to make money back on the deal for the biggest investors. I mean, to get more revenue in, to increase expenditure, to increase capacity, to increase the marketing and merchandising - these are all things Ellis is largely responsible for inadvertently hindering by his attitude and philosophy. I bet Ellis is keen to sell, to get 20 million quid and stay where he is. I wouldn't bet that people considereing spending 60 million quid would be quite so sure that they were doing the right thing given the league position, refused planning permission, reduced TV revenues, and all the rest. Ellis may sweet talk Neville, but can he sweet talk cold hard cash?

Wahey! will you lead, or shall I? And Al's tune will do Tremendous news.

ta, and that's perhaps because not much changes under Ellis.

here sir have some free train tickets... :wink: Done (actually I voted for you anyway, but thought it worth going for an other extras that might come my way

I can see Al and Chris in there, but not me. Case not proven.

Corruption - that's disgraceful! power to the people 'cus the people want peace. (note to mods - My vote can be bought for a small consideration. Start the bidding please)

I've made one wahey! and it works - take that all those who think I'm a numpty and can't work a computer. Luddites. There's no pictures or 'owt. just some old reports and articles from off here (wot I wrote), er, actually, so, there's not much to look at. Um, sorry.

Except for the fans/takeover. I don't give that one much credence, Rob

I'll sit on the (dividing) fence :)

Do you wear glasses, N? Beautiful? SB? Eh? It's nothing of the sort (though i respect eye of the beholder etc..) It's a combo of a nasty 1970s triple decker stand, with terrible views from the lower tier, and 3 sides done in a 1990's identikit homage to money and glass and those yellowy bricks they use. Get help.

I voted for theme park anfield. Spurs is decent, Newcastle impressive, Old Trafford, er, big and red, Sunderland's is decent, but a bit identikit. Arsenal is OK, but the atmosphere is crap, and the away end view is poor. So Anfield wins, by dint of being a "proper" football football ground, still. Crammed in amongst the houses and pubs, on it's day it's a tremendous place, and it retains the link back, to an extent, with their great sides of the past. And the fans are alright, too.

Feck knows what all this is about, but zooming in on the rissok picture in the top left reveals that a visit to "make up" might be in order. You're looking a bit rough, dude.