RichW

I didn’t really think Europe was on until after the Newcastle game, after that I thought there was a good chance especially after the performance. Start of the season I just wanted a comfortable season, challenge for the top 10 and to be closer to the top 8 points wise then the big gap that was last season. When Gerrard was sacked if somebody said Villa would finish top 8 I would have bitten their hand off. It’s a bit deflating considering Villa been in the European spots for a few weeks now but realistically with the games in hand teams had/have it wasn’t entirely accurate. Europe is still mathematically on but I just think the fixtures towards the end of the season haven’t ruled in Villas favour this year. Villa will beat Spurs but going away to Anfield after is what is gonna cost us, Liverpool keep churning out 1-0 wins there and feel it will be a repeat of the Man Utd game. Emery has over achieved with the squad especially with injuries had. When players are having a bad game we just haven’t got the depth to bring on players who can change the game. I think teams probably didn’t take Villa serious until the Newcastle result because since then Watkins has been kept quiet, Moreno has been stifled and we’ve been predictable in attack. The big problem since promotion is the first goal in games tend to be important for us, how games in 4 years have we won after going 1-0 down? I don’t think it’s happened too often. Think I saw a stat during the game that when trailing at HT this season Villa have W0 D1 L9 that has to change if want to finish in the top 6 next season. Just going to enjoy the last few games and look forward to what looks like an exciting transfer window regardless of Europe or not.

Problem is we’ve got to go to Anfield whilst Spurs have got a home game against Brentford (who probably be on the beach by then?) so good chance already 3 points behind going into the last day. Gonna be very tough now.

Said earlier in the thread on Saturday I thought Brighton would win the three home games which would probably kill off top 6 hopes but the last min pen feels like a sucker punch. Gotta hope Everton might be able to scrape a 0-0 or something there on Monday but I can’t see it. Just got to focus on matching spurs results now, a loss to wolves the weekend would probably feel like Europe is over but then if Spurs lost to Palace it wouldn’t change so going to have to wait and see. Relying on Palace, Brentford and Leeds to nick something, only concern is Palace could be on the beach now they’ve hit the 40 point mark and surely Spurs will want to make up for the last 2 away performances? Brentford might be on the beach by the time that fixture comes round. Didn’t think we’d be relying on Big Sam a week or so ago!

Last few years have shown it's not really a big 6 now your right. There's a big 6 commercially but not with the league table. With Newcastle now there is already 7 clubs trying to compete for 6 positions. Leicester and West Ham have shown other teams can have a season or two where they challenge but it's so difficult to sustain it over a period of time. Be interesting to see which of big teams will have a poor season next season to open the door.

If Villa get Europe I think Archer will stay as he will most likely feature in them plus the cup games otherwise I expect him to be sold in the summer especially if Villa do sign another striker.

Just looking at the teams West Ham have played in the Conference League. Viborg, FCSB, Silkeborg, Anderlecht, AEK Larnaca and Gent. There's a big gap between group stages and knock outs (November - March which is down to the World Cup) but usually the group stages would be done by end of November anyway right? I just think Emery will use the likes of Duran/Archer/Ramsey/Tim Iroegbunam and some of the squad players (will have to see the summer window before establishing squad players) for the group stages. Any Premier League team that enters the Conference League has a good chance of winning it. We can talk about next seasons potential promising campaign all we want but there's no guarantee Villa will be challenging top 6/7 next season just because we have been in Champions League form this season so we might as well make the most of trying get into Europe this season as it could easily be another long wait for the next chance.

We have to beat Spurs regardless I think. Think they will win both of their home games though Brentford are capable of getting something but then they might be on the beach by then.

I’d be surprised if he plays at all this season, might get a few minutes last day of the season.

Buendia was poor yesterday, like a few players were especially first half. Problem is we have nobody to replace him with when having a poor game. Hopefully won’t be the case next season.

In regards to the teams it probably gives more confidence they will see off Everton and Southampton comfortably. In regards to Man Utd I just cannot ignore their shocking record away to somebody decent this year and Brighton will be up for it after that semi final loss against them. Going to need Man City to not have the league wrapped by that game fingers crossed. I’m still confident Villa will finish at least 7th but if we lose to Wolves (I don’t think this will happen) the weekend it means having to get something at Anfield and I’ve got no confidence in that so would start having doubts.

When looking at the fixtures I had the Wolves game down as a draw but hoping they would be safe so we’d be going there with more to play for but not ideal having to play them after a 6-0 hammering as there will be some sort of reaction. Hopefully Kamara/Cash/Bailey might be fit for the game just so Emery can freshen the team up a bit. Can’t afford to lose to Wolves but I don’t think we will.

Thread might not be pretty if Brighton do go and beat Man Utd Thursday night though! You say Brighton have been patchy recently, their league home form since the World Cup reads W5 D1 L1 so they are good at home. Lets hope Wolves are just as non-interested the weekend.

Couple of months ago I was firmly in the camp that Europe was a season too early for this squad but looking at West Ham and Leicester this season you can just never plan for Europe. Have to take the opportunity when it comes as breaking into the top 7 is reliant on one of the traditional “big 6” to have a bad season.

One thing have to factor in with Brightons remaining games is by the time they play Newcastle and Man City is whether those teams have already qualified for the Champions League or won the league. I’m expecting Brighton to beat Man Utd, Everton and Southampton but lose the 3 away ones but football doesn’t always work like that. That would leave them on 61 going into the final day. Everton could grab a draw there but Brighton are capable of getting a draw in those away games especially if Newcastle/Man City have achieved their objective by then. I think Brighton will just be out of reach by the final day for us especially with the goal difference. I wish Villa could rest our 3 best players and still batter a poor team 6-0. Man Utd throwing away a 2 goal lead the other night is probably the most frustrating thing, even a point advantage over Spurs would have been a bonus.

Well that’s where me and you differ. I would happily take Europa Conference considering we were 11th for months and were miles off the top 7. Not convinced if we qualified for the Conference league instead of Europa it would impact the transfers that much. Difference between Champions League and Europa League yes, Europa and Conference I don’t think so. If the Europa Conference is good enough for Jose Mourinho, it’s good enough for me. I think if any Premier League team took it seriously they would win it and I want to see Villa win a trophy in my lifetime.

Well I’m thinking Brighton beat Man Utd and Everton and Southampton but lose the others but then feel like Everton could easily get a 0-0 there but also Brighton could nick a draw in one of the games I feel like they will lose. I’m just focusing on Spurs as the one we need to finish above the at the moment If we do lose at Wolves then means gotta get something at Liverpool which like today I’m not confident is something we can do. Spurs game at Villa Park is crucial though, lose that then I struggle to see how finish above Brighton or Spurs. They’ve shown today it probably won’t be as easy game as I thought it might be.

I take it you don’t want Villa to play in the Europa Conference then? 5th going to be difficult as can’t see past Liverpool with their remaining fixtures. I’m not looking at just Brighton though, nothings changed with Spurs this weekend from what I can see.

Earlier in this thread I had Villa to be on 58 points going into the last day with Brighton on 61 and Spurs 60. Had Villa to lose today, draw with Wolves, beat Spurs and lose to Liverpool. Even said I expected Brighton to win their 3 home games before they played yesterday so not sure how you can say I’m one who thinks champions league is still on and calling anybody negative when people probably thinking I’m being negative. Villa lost, Spurs lost so nothing has changed. Liverpool will most likely finish 5th and Villa will need to better Spurs results in the next 4 games for European football which was the case before this weekend. It will go to the last day and as I’ve wrote previously, if Villa need to beat Brighton last day of the season for Europe I’m confident they will do it. Next 2 games are crucial, 4 points minimum needed I think. Anything less then that then will be relying on other teams.

What’s changed? Was always going to be a tough game today against team that are strong at home. Spurs are losing 3-1 Liverpool so if anything we could gain on goal difference today.

Todays result hasn’t changed much, I wrote off this game and Anfield beforehand any points today would have been a bonus. Spurs is the big game but can’t afford a loss at Wolves next week.

Buendia can be frustrating at times but his also one of my favourite players to watch in this team. If he was to pick up an injury/suspension and was missing for a couple of games I bet people would be screaming for his return. After Mings, Martinez, Watkins, Kamara his probably the next player we have to have fit as we’ve not got anybody in the squad like him. Coutinho can’t stay fit, and doesn’t really play 90 minutes either.

No idea if it will be 5th, 6th or 7th but only way I can see Villa not getting into Europe is if lose to Spurs which I don’t think will happen.

Well hopefully can get something tomorrow or at Anfield. I’m thinking more likely tomorrow as if villa do get something tomorrow and Man Utd lose to Brighton then Liverpool might think they can still finish top 4 going in our game.

It’s going to go the last day of the season for sure. I haven’t done one of them predictor things but if I was going to predict a worst case scenario for Villas/Spurs/Brighton final fixtures going into the final game of the season. I would think something like this Villa - Man Utd L, Wolves D Spurs W Liverpool L 58 points Brighton - Man Utd W, Everton W Arsenal L Newcastle L Southampton W Man City L 61 points Spurs - Liverpool L Palace W Villa L Brentford W 60 points Villa v Spurs is going to be a must win I feel, but if can beat Wolves and get a positive result against Man Utd/Liverpool could be on 62 points ish going into the last day. Only worry for me with Brighton is if they manage to get anything out of Arsenal/Newcastle/Man City then could be on more points if they do. I don’t see them dropping points in the other 3 games. With Spurs they are probably going to be playing a Palace side on the beach now they have hit 40 points and by the time they play Brentford I can see them being on the beach aswell so good chance for 2 home wins there. Away from home I don’t expect them to get anything and if Leeds need to win to stay up last day I don’t think Spurs will win there. If Villa need a result last day to get Europe I’d be very confident Villa would get it, especially since Brighton will have had to play Man City 4 days before.

Brighton were always gonna show a reaction to the week they’ve had though didn’t expect them to be so comfortable at half time when I saw that line up. Still a very good team. Pretty sure they would have seen these 3 home games as all winnable. Key players rested for them for Man Utd in mid -week so again think they will go and win that game. I will only start worrying about Brighton’s results if they somehow manage to nick a win in them 2 away games against Newcastle and Arsenal as I just don’t see them getting anything there.