Mandy Lifeboats

Elon Musk's Starlink will require 42,000 satellites to provide worldwide coverage. There are already over 5,000 in orbit. How could Russia take out a significant percentage very quickly? I think we can guess. Let's see how the childish Musk reacts to a threat that will. requires the US government to protect his asset. Hopefully the US military will charge him an exorbitant fee.

Wednesday - Russia puts nukes in Space. Thursday - The Clangers apply for NATO membership.

I agree. This is a thread to discuss hypothetical scenarios.

This is the other defence I mentioned. Pershore's was one of the British "stop lines". The stop lines were lines of fortifications built to counter an invasion. Pershore's main defence was centred around the river bridge. The gun emplacement still exists as do the anti tank obstacles. The fortifications were designed so that they could be spun around to face an invasion from the South Coast or the Welsh Coast. https://archaeologydataservice.ac.uk/archives/view/dob/ai_full_r.cfm?refno=9017 If you are in the area to stalk Toyah (she lives in the house by the Zebra crossing in the town centre) have a look at the defences.

As I mentioned earlier in the thread, Aberdovey still has pill boxes that were placed to deter an invasion from Ireland. I spent many a happy hour shooting pretend Germans from these whilst on holiday. It drove the wife mad. https://www.tracesofwar.com/sights/23849/Pillbox-FW3-26-Aberdovey.htm If you are in the area, climb to the top of one of the hills overlooking the bay. You can see all the defences.

It was very much a threat to tie up British Forces. This was the plan - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Green_(Ireland) The other plan was this one that had the support of the IRA. It was even less credible. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plan_Kathleen

@Panto_Villan I have been enjoying the posts so much that I forgot to like any of them. This is a fantastic discussion of "what ifs" but also on the actual history of the time. More!

We are talking a hypothetical situation and therefore we don't know the dates. But let's assume we are talking the later half of 1940. Europe had fallen. We left a large amount of equipment at Dunkirk. The Battle of Britain was underway. The Blitz had begun. The Nazis had not attacked Russia. We were fighting the Italians and Germans in North Africa. Japan was about to begin its campaign against the British Empire. At this point in history I believe our forces were at their very weakest and stretched to the limit. Who knows what would have happened if the Nazis had not invaded the USSR and not declared war on the USA simply to help the Japanese** ** They didn't look very Arian to me.

These are all very good points but the army, navy and airforce units required were already deployed elsewhere. Taking Ireland would have been very easy. Blockading Ireland would have been easy. But we didn't have half the Royal Navy available to do that. Which areas would you have neglected in on order to provide the forces required? The navy was escorting incoming convoys, hunting the Turpitz, Bismark and Graf Spee, hunting u-boats, protecting the channel, protecting the empire, fighting the Japanese in the far east and fighting the Italian navy in the Mediterranean and protecting convoys shipping arms to Russia. This thread is one of hypothetical scenarios. So........let's say we began preparations to invade Ireland causing the Irish to join the Axis. We then used the Royal Navy to cut off Ireland and conquer it quite easily but taking naval loses doing so. We deploy the army to suppress a large and well armed IRA who are still fighting in Ireland and commiting acts of sabotage throughout the UK. As a result, it allows the Italians and Germans to remain in North Africa. They are now heading east towards Egypt, Palestine and Persia's oil fields. What happens next?

Just to get this back onto topic..... The link I posted above mentions that Churchill was worried that Ireland joining the Axis would give U-boats a massive advantage.

The hilarity of being a POW in Ireland Well worth a read https://forthelifeofme-film.com/2019/07/30/the-most-bizarre-pow-camp-during-wwii-curragh/

It's slightly off topic but here's my favourite WW2 story regarding Ireland. Many British and German aircrew and sailors found themselves POW in Ireland. They were treated very well and received their normal pay from their respective governments. Their imprisonment was very relaxed and they were able to leave the camps if they made a written statement promising not to escape. A US pilot fighting with the RAF promised to escape but then escaped and returned to the UK. This was unsporting and he was subsequently returned to Ireland. He made the best of things by taking up foxhunting. He was subsequently repatriated to the US just in time to join the US airforce for the rest of the war.

Even 10 U-boats in Irish waters could have done significant damage to any invasion fleet. At this point of the war we were figting the Axis in North Africa and the far east with limited success. Invading Ireland and then occupying it just wasn't feasible. Consider how much effort we put into defending the UK from the IRA when there wasn't a war on. Now image the IRA much, much bigger and armed with a plentiful array of weapons.

So......let me pose some hypothetical questions to you. Russia stages a small chemical attack on UK citizens. Would NATO declare war? Russia stages another small chemical attack on UK citizens. Would NATO declare war? Russia shoots down a South Korean airliner filled with Dutch Citizens. Would NATO declare war? A Russian pilot lock's onto an unarmed RAF plane and fires. The missile fails. Would NATO declare war? A Russian pilot intentionally collides with a NATO surveillance drone International airspace. Would NATO declare war? Russia moves a border post on the Estonian border 2 mm towards the west. Should NATO declare war? 3mm? 2cm? 20cm? 2m? 3m? Before you answer, let me remind you of Trump's recent comments that he would encourage Putin to do as he wished to a NATO country if they weren't paying their way.

The UK had suffered a massive defeat in Dunkirk and was fighting the Germans and Italians in North Africa. Had the UK begun preparing an invasion of Ireland it could have prompted Ireland to simply join the Axis.

The real threat was the Nazis would invade neutral Ireland and use it as a stepping stone. Aberdovey beaches still have the defences we put in place to defend an invasion from Ireland. Pershore still has anti tank defences that are designed to defend an attack from Wales. A succesful Nazi invasion of Ireland leads to some interesting hypothetical dilemmas. Liverpool docks wouldn't last long. Could the RAF defend attacks from 3 sides?

I couldn't disagree more. Russia won't be stupid enough to launch a massive attack on NATO. But that's not how they work. Russia might try to snatch a small piece of a NATO country and test NATO's willingness to go to war over 20 square miles of Estonia. There's many examples of this tactics being used during my lifetime. Most notably Russia's original invasion of Crimea.

I have written about this before. NATO has a long-standing and well developed plan to beat a Russian invasion. 1. Let them come forward 2. Only defend areas with massive defensive advantages 3. Use special forces, helicopters and attack aircraft to destroy the Russian supply lines 4. Wait for the forward momentum to cease due to lack of supplies Ukraine had some success doing this. But they seem to have failed in a few key areas. They don't have the air power to shred the Russian supply lines. But the biggest failing is that they try to defend towns which are of little value and lose thousands of troops in a futile defense. This plays into Russia's hands by making it a war of attrition. Russia likes wars of attrition. Its easy to say "give up land" when it's not your land. But Ukraine should have given up more land in order to retain more troops. Ukraine needs to drop the Crimea bridge in 3 or 4 places. This requires a mass cruise missile attack. I believe that the US would provide the missiles to do it. But without the ability to safely launch those missiles in a large salvo, Russia can (more or less) keep the bridge safe. It's now a war of attrition and something major needs to happen to prevent Russia inevitably gaining 20% of Ukraine in return for peace.

That's not quite the full picture. Russia still has vast superiority in helicopters and attack helicopters. These support ground troops very effectively. The F16 will be deployed with air to air missiles that can take out these helicopters without venturing near Russian planes or air defences. This will force Russia to either withdraw their helicopters further back or move their air defences further forward. Things aren't going well for Ukraine at the moment. Russia is moving slowly forward. Whenever this has happened on the last 2 years it has prompted NATO to hand over better weapons or remove restrictions on the use of donated weapons. The F16 will allow NATO to donate weapons that can be immediately deployed rather than retrofitting things to old MIG aircraft. Storm-shadow has been frighteningly effective. My personal hope is that the US donate equivalent weapons and allow them to strike targets within Russia.

I need my bed.

There's a very interesting rumour circulating from Russian sources regarding Gerasimov. Many are saying that he has defected or was caught whilst trying to defect to the Swiss Embassy in Turkey. It's very much a rumour but it would explain why neither side are commenting on his location.

Vat is your name? Don't tell him Pike.

The home team beat Nottingham 96 to 9.

Amazingly it didn't. The British Army empowers its lower ranks to make decisions based upon what they see and encounter. The Russian Army still requires permission to be sought for any deviations from the generals plan. The example that summed it up for me was thus > The US fires a cruise missiles against a bridge. A video camera on board shows that it misses the target. Another missile will be dispatched within 20 minutes involving 2 tiers of command. The same scenario for Russia takes 2 days.

Russia places its top generals relativepy close to the front lines. That was considered to be a reasonably safe option until storm-shadow arrived. He's either dead or cowering in a bunker well away from Crimea. Either scenario is embarrassing for Russia. I think he's cowering in a bunker. His death "on the front lines" could be spun as a glorious sacrifice.