I think as an upward trend finishing around 10th would show great progress, considering the way Lambert is changing his squad people shouldn't (but can if they like, it's not a bad thing) get too ahead of themselves in terms of how we finish. For example in O'Neill's first two seasons we went from 16th to 11th to 6th, in those two season we spent (don't quote me) around £35 million on 13 players of which 4 were free (including Carew swap for Baros). Some of these players were experienced and needed no time to "bed in" to a team aiming to push up the league. This is surprising similar to Lambert spending (again don't quote me) £34 million on 15 players of which possibly two were free (one not even bought by him), the difference being these players are generally younger, have less experience than O'Neills' signings and may not fit into the league immediately. So a slower form of progress should be expected in my opinion.
I am optimistic, uncharacteristically so, but don't want to get too ahead of myself in the event that we don't do as well as people are expecting. I'll be as pleased as anyone to see us finish higher than 10th though.