NormandyVillan

It took me a minute or two to work out what that graph means because there’s no explanation, but I think I’ve got it now. The y-axis is the average number of points per game from the last five games played. The 5-game rolling average at the end of last season was in fact 0.6. Under McLeish we finished with a sequence of DLDDL, i.e. 3 points from 5 games giving an average of 0.6. The 0.4 at the start of the graph actually represents a slight dip from this, because it takes into account the first game of this season (the West Ham defeat) to give a 5-game sequence of LDDLL. If we draw the next game against Southampton the current sequence will be LLLDD and the rolling average will be down to 0.4 again (equalling the lowest point at any time this season or in the previous three seasons). If we lose against Southampton we’ll have LLLDL and the rolling average will be down to 0.2, the lowest since 2009 (corresponding to the sudden slump after going third in the League in February under O’Neill). If we took into account goal difference over each 5-game period (which would be -16 at best if we lost to Southampton), we would surely be on our worst 5-game since.... I would guess the last time we lost five in a row! I don’t remember the last time we lost 5 in a row. Was it a few decades ago... or perhaps even never??? If the answer is “never”, then losing to Southampton would not only lead to a new low on that graph, but we would also have just had the worst five-game sequence in our entire League history! I hope we win to bring the average up to 0.8 again, although that would still clearly be relegation form. Not trying to be negative, mind. Just saying...

Really? We are currently joint lowest scorers in the Premier League with 17 goals in 21 matches. If we carry on scoring at the same rate we’ll finish with about 30 or 31 goals for the season, the worst in our entire history (easily beating last season’s all-time low of 37). I’d say that suggests we quite desperately need to improve our attack. That doesn’t necessarily mean new out-and-out strikers. Maybe more like more creativity in midfield and wide players who can create danger. I’m still hoping a fit and in-form N’Zogbia could improve us in that department, but at least one new signing to give us more attacking options looks very much called for.

Well, that goal difference hasn't actually happened yet. It's just what will happen if we carry on scoring and conceding at the same rates. But yes, if it did happen, it would be quite embarrassingly bad. It would be the worst goal difference in the Premier League since that famously bad Derby team of five years ago (the one that ended the season with 11 points).

Neither of those changes would affect any of the records I mentioned. Our points per game record is currently 'only' the worst since 1986-87, when 3 points per game had already been in use for several years, although it's true that if it drops any lower you would need to adjust the data to compare with years before 1981-82. Hopefully it won't so there won't be need any need to worry about that statistical problem. Goal difference should strictly be adjusted for the number of games played in a season, but in any case we have never had a season in which it has been more than -1 per game as it is at present (-24 in 21 games compared to the previous worst of -34 in 42 games), so we are clearly currently on course for our worst ever goal difference, both in absolute numbers and relative to the number of games played. None of the other statistical criteria I listed are affected by any changes since the League started in 1887.

With so much doom and gloom around here at the moment, I reckon there’s nothing like a few interesting statistics to brighten the mood! So after reading a few comments here about this current Villa team being the worst they have ever seen, I wondered whether this could in fact be backed up by hard figures. I therefore decided (as you do) to compare our record so far this season with our complete league history since 1887. Actually, interesting as they may be, the results of this quick comparison might on reflection be considered to make rather grim reading, but so be it... We are only just over halfway through the season, of course, but IF things carried on as they are THEN this would in fact be one of our worst seasons ever on a number of counts. We would then have: Points per game: 0.90 (worst since 1986-87 relegation season) Goals scored per game: 0.81 (worst ever) Goals conceded per game: 1.95 (worst since 1966-67) Goal average: 0.41 (worst ever) Goal difference (projected over 38 games): -43 (worst ever) Win percentage: 19.0 % (second worst ever, “beaten” only by McLeish’s 18.4 %) Home win percentage: 20 % (worst ever) Home goals scored per game: 0.80 (worst ever) (actually some of those exact current figures are not mathematically possible over a 38-game season, but you get the picture: we’re currently a wee bit below par by our standards). So it looks like there could in fact be some statistical evidence for these “worst Villa team I have ever seen” claims. For instance (if results do not improve), by the end of this season probably only fans in their fifties or older will have seen Villa let in goals at such a rate, nobody ever will have seen us scoring so few, nobody ever will have seen us concede so many goals for every one we score, and nobody ever will have seen us win fewer games at Villa Park. In fact, given all of the above, I don’t know which is more surprising: the fact that we are not actually in the relegation zone, or that over 33,000 people still turn up to watch us lose 3-0 to Wigan! None of these figures are definitive, of course. There are still 17 games to go, and it’s how the record looks after 38 games that matters (and most particularly whether we can somehow scrape together enough points to stay up). However, the worrying thing is that we have seen little to make us confident that we will improve over the rest of the season. In fact, the performances over the Christmas period seem to suggest that things are more likely to get even worse in what is already on course to be one of our worst seasons ever. Has anyone heard that Randy has the odd £50m to spare? It looks like it could be needed.

Great result! something to get excited about at last! And a 4-1 win at Norwich brings back happy memories of the start of the glory days under Ron Saunders. In the last week of the 1974-75 season, we won 4-0 at Sheffield Wednesday to clinch promotion, then beat Sunderland 2-0 at Villa Park in front of 57,000 (thereby promoting Norwich) and finally (having done Norwich enough favours) went to Carrow Road and won 4-1, completing a run of eight wins out of eight at the end of season. Happy days! We also won the League Cup that season, beating Norwich in the final. Let's hope there's a lucky omen in there somewhere.

Looking at the League Table, I can't help noticing what a dramatic effect a single bad half of football has had on Villa this season. If we'd simply held on to a half-time lead at Southampton, there would be a bottom three of QPR (6 points), Southampton (9) and Reading (9) adrift of the rest, with Villa sitting fairly comfortably on 17 points and looking in no immediate danger. It's the second half collapse there that has put us in trouble ever since. That's not to say we're too good to be in a relegation fight. I don't think we are. But it's a good illustration of various clichés about it being "a thin line" and so on.

Wow, not a bad result after being mauled at Southampton three days earlier! This kind of inconsistency is at least a step up on last season's consistency (i.e. the same level of dullness and crapness game after game). BTW, when was the last time Villa beat a "big" team in a cup match? I can't remember but I'm pretty sure it was a long time ago.

Why would that quote be appropriate? He's obviously been asked some questions about what he aims to achieve at Villa, and he's answered them. Should he just have said "no comment"?

An aerial threat at the other end? How many did we score from corners last season? Collins is useless in front of goal. Well he's scored more than Dunne. It's all relative.

To be honest, I'd rather see Dunne shipped out than Collins. Despite his failings (positioning and mobility when facing quick strikers), Collins can be a tower of strength in some games and an aerial threat at the other end of the pitch. I don't see any redeeming qualities in Dunne these days.

That's so so terrible it's funny that you'd even post it If Vlaar actually comes, I suggest a new Villa Defence Song (to the tune of “Blue Suede Shoes”): Well it's Ron Vlaar and Dunney, 2 we don’t know, 3’s a steady Eddie and Given’s in goal But don’t you give us the Warnock blues, I can take anything except those Hutton and Warnock blues.

I think "Rock the Casbah" might catch on if both El Ahmadi and Villa perform well. The Casbah = the old walled citadel in Algiers or other Arab towns. “Rock the Casbah” at home = getting our citadel (Villa Park) rocking. “Rock the Casbah” in away games = going into another team’s citadel and shaking them up. Could sound great away at Man Utd or whoever, if Villa are actually “rocking their Casbah”. And you wouldn't need to have a degree in Arab history or even know what the Casbah means. Everyone would basically get the message.

Agree. Funny how people are though. Paint the Mona Lisa and people queue up to say how it might look better with slightly thicker eyebrows If he's crap at shooting, all the more reason for it to be crossbar. You could be right there, although I did have another thought. If someone called Barry can be “Bazza”, why can’t someone called Karim be “Kazza”? Then you’d have: “Karim El Ahmadi. Rock them Kazza! Rock them Kazza!”

Rock the corner flag?

because rock the casbah has **** all to do with football? Well, the song is something about people in the Muslim/Arab world defying repressive religious authorities to sing and dance in the streets. For Villa, that could be seen as an allegory for breaking free of McLeish's defensive fundamentalism to jive around the previously forbidden territory of the opposition half of the field. The Casbah is a metaphor for Villa Park, which hopefully will be rocking again. Just an idea... Jesus wept he was a bad manager not an evil dictator. Get a grip But I’ve spent hundreds of hours studying the UN Declaration of Human Rights and international case law, specifically in the field of “intentional or negligent infliction of emotional distress”, and I believe there are firm grounds for bringing charges not just of “Crimes against Football” but also of “Crimes against Humanity” against Villa’s most recent former manager. It would be a crying shame if all that hard work went to waste. In fact I absolutely live for the day when the news finally breaks that “a 53-year-old Dorridge man has been arrested on charges...” Disclaimer: No, I haven’t actually done that. I’m just kidding. 8)

because rock the casbah has **** all to do with football? Well, the song is something about people in the Muslim/Arab world defying repressive religious authorities to sing and dance in the streets. For Villa, that could be seen as an allegory for breaking free of McLeish's defensive fundamentalism to jive around the previously forbidden territory of the opposition half of the field. The Casbah is a metaphor for Villa Park, which hopefully will be rocking again. Just an idea...

Why not just stick with "Rock the Casbah"? His North African origins make it appropriate enough.

Smashing it In off the underside of the crossbar would be fine, but I can't think of a way of specifying that in the chant without it losing a bit of its snappiness.

I think Stoke should be allowed to play in the Euros. I'd love to see Spain v Stoke.

starting to think we are 4th best team in Europe Looking at it that way, I'm thrilled to think that Villa have players like Given and Dunne with the world-class quality to play in that team.

I’m wondering if it’s any consolation to Ireland fans to know they were actually in the toughest group in this tournament (both finalists plus Croatia, who were quite close to knocking out either Spain or Italy in the last round of group matches). In hindsight, it looks like that was the real “group of death”.

never thought would ever read or hear this You can't help liking this Italy team because they combine real passion (starting with the way they sing the anthem loudly to fire themselves up before each game) with good enterprising football. That's what fans want to see. As regards the anthem, I think Spain are at a bit of a disadvantage having one with no words, although they could try humming it determinedly.

To be fair to Italy, I thought they showed a lot of attacking intent against Spain in the group match, which was a good game with chances at both ends. That said, I wouldn't guarantee that they won't revert to type if they reach the final.

vs France and Portugal are arguably 2 worst games of tournament Yes. Spain v Croatia might qualify as one of the worst 3 as well. The pattern seems to have been the same for ages now. The other team plays very defensively to contain Spain. Spain dominate but are careful to keep their own defensive shape and not get too many players forward. Spain eventually win a dull, low-scoring game. Repeat in next round... I thought Spain v France was going to be better after Spain scored relatively early on, but the game seemed to get even worse after that. France made some token efforts to get back into it, but seemed to lack real purpose and ambition, Spain stifled them quite easily while not seeming too bothered about scoring any more, and by the end the crowd was simply "watching in hushed awe" (i.e. falling asleep).