omariqy

Yeah everyone knows that we are finishing 6th.

Yeah but we wont have to

Bring him on in the final when we are 4-0 up

It's all one league so no playoffs.

That and Dortmund going out, along with us and Liverpool going through. That should be more than enough to see it through.

Each win is 2 points, draw 1 point and round progression is 1 point. The last one (bonus point) doesn’t apply to UECL until the semi final round.

Let’s not forget Villa in the last few years have produced when mattered. 10 games in a row, making up 7 point with 4 games to go, getting 7th out of nowhere last season in a crunch match against Brighton. Believe.

No it doesnt so yes it would be guaranteed at that point.

Posted again so it is all in one place. So I have looked at a few different scenarios Scenario 1 - Man City, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through Scenario 2 - Madrid, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through Scenario 3 - Madrid, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Lille go through Scenario 4 - Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through Assume whoever goes through gets a draw away from home and a win at home Current points totals are as follows Germany - 16.357 England - 16.250 I’ve ignored the points totals of the non German/English teams below Scenario 1 Man City - 0.500 points in total Bayern - 0.571 points Arsenal - 0.125 Liverpool - 0.500 Leverkusen - 0.571 West Ham 0.125 Dortmund - 0.143 Villa - 0.375 Germany - 17.660 England - 17.875 England have 3 teams and Germany have 2 teams through. Man City v Bayern in the semi is the deciding game you would think in that scenario. Scenario 2 Bayern - 0.571 Man City - 0.125 Liverpool - 0.500 Leverkusen - 0.571 West Ham - 0.125 Dortmund - 0.143 Villa - 0.375 Germany - 17.642 England - 17.375 In this scenario you are relying on Madrid to beat Bayern and Villa and Liverpool to get to/win their finals Scenario 3 Man City - 0.125 Arsenal - 0.500 Bayern - 0.143 Liverpool - 0.500 Leverkusen - 0.571 West Ham - 0.125 Dortmund - 0.143 Villa - 0.125 Germany - 17.214 England - 17.5 In this scenario, you only have Leverkusen left who can get a maximum of 1.142 points for Germany if they win the whole thing. You’d be relying on Liverpool or Arsenal to get to the final/win it Scenario 4 - probably the most likely scenario Man City - 0.500 Arsenal - 0.500 Bayern - 0.143 Liverpool - 0.500 Leverkusen - 0.571 West Ham - 0.125 Dortmund - 0.143 Villa - 0.375 Germany - 17.214 England - 18.25 In this scenario, only Leverkusen left with a maximum of 1.142 points available - i.e. max Germany can get is 18.356. England would just need to draw one game to get 2nd place in this scenario. I am discounting France and Spain as they are so far behind. + Just to add a 5th Scenario i.e. if City and Arsenal go out. Scenario 5 - Madrid, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through Assume whoever goes through gets a draw away from home and a win at home Current points totals are as follows Germany - 16.357 England - 16.250 Scenario 5 Man City - 0.125 Arsenal - 0.125 Bayern - 0.571 Liverpool - 0.500 Leverkusen - 0.571 West Ham - 0.125 Dortumund - 0.143 Villa - 0.375 Germany - 17.642 England - 17.500 Scenario 5a - Madrid beat Bayern, Liverpool and Leverkusen get to the final, Villa go to the final Bayern - 0.143 Liverpool - 0.500 Leverkusen - 0.500 Villa - 0.500 Germany - 18.285 England - 18.500 So not all hope is lost if both City and Arsenal lose. It just depends the manner of the defeats and if we can get 2 of Liverpool/West Ham/Villa into the final.

There is. I've just posted it.

Just to add a 5th Scenario i.e. if City and Arsenal go out. Scenario 5 - Madrid, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through Assume whoever goes through gets a draw away from home and a win at home Current points totals are as follows Germany - 16.357 England - 16.250 Scenario 5 Man City - 0.125 Arsenal - 0.125 Bayern - 0.571 Liverpool - 0.500 Leverkusen - 0.571 West Ham - 0.125 Dortumund - 0.143 Villa - 0.375 Germany - 17.642 England - 17.500 Scenario 5a - Madrid beat Bayern, Liverpool and Leverkusen get to the final, Villa go to the final Bayern - 0.143 Liverpool - 0.500 Leverkusen - 0.500 Villa - 0.500 Germany - 18.285 England - 18.500 So not all hope is lost if both City and Arsenal lose. It just depends the manner of the defeats and if we can get 2 of Liverpool/West Ham/Villa into the final.

Not even the top 3 are capable of winning every game at the moment.

Anyways I’ve learnt quite quickly that it is pointless trying to guess what happens that far ahead. My spreadsheet is all over the shop at the moment.

We beat Man City, Spurs, Arsenal in the first half of the season so it doesn’t matter much at this stage. They look open at the back so with them it can be any result. Very hard to call. They could win most of their games or lost most of them.

The stat is that we’ve not gone 3 games without winning a game. That is likely to end this weekend.

Nope

Yeah I think they can get 5/6 out of that quite easily

Almost impossible given their lead and the fact Roma and Milan play each other so they are guaranteed a certain level of points. Fiorentina also favourites to win their tie.

I think he needs a bit of a break tbh. Plus he can go full tilt against Lille.

That's more than Lazy.

Right on to a massive week in Europe. I hate relying on other teams but it is what it is.

As I've shown in my previous posts if Dortmund and Bayern exit then it's all but guaranteed. As long as Liverpool and Us or City go through

Lol

Whether it was 13 points or 12 points. Its neither here nor there. One more win and two draws and it's ours.

Well said Leon. Watch out for those bums.