leviramsey Posted October 17, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted October 17, 2012 DVOA ratings Are you ready for some upheaval? The New York Giants take their huge win over San Francisco (covered in this week's Any Given Sunday) and ride it up the DVOA charts all the way from number eight to number one. The Giants look even more like the best team in the league if you consider that their Week 1 loss to Dallas now looks like an extreme outlier. The Giants had a -40.9% DVOA for that game, but have over 20% DVOA in every one of their games since (including their narrow Week 4 loss to Philadelphia). The Giants weren't the only team to see their placement in DVOA change dramatically this week. A dozen different teams moved up or down by at least four places in this week's DVOA ratings. The Colts and Chargers stand out as the biggest drops, while the Jets, Bucs, and Giants had the biggest gains. This season continues to be defined by two trends: first, a ridiculous number of late comebacks and otherwise close games mean that advanced stats like DVOA rank the teams in an order very different from simple wins and losses; and second, that the NFC is far, far superior to the AFC. Six of the top seven teams right now have at least two losses. Three of them are just 3-3. This is the first time in DVOA history that four different two-loss (or three-loss) teams are in the top five after Week 6. However, it's pretty clear that this close-game thing has been increasing in importance over the past few years. From 1991 through 2004, an average of 1.2 teams per year were in the top five after Week 6 despite multiple losses. There have been at least two of these teams in the top five after Week 6 in every season since 2006. Last week, the Packers were the second-best 2-3 team in DVOA history, and this week they are the second-best 3-3 team in DVOA history (once again behind the 2005 Chargers). The Broncos are the fourth-best 3-3 team in DVOA history, behind the 2005 Chargers, the Packers, and the 2008 Eagles. The flip side of these 4-2 and 3-3 teams at the top of our ratings is that the teams with the best win-loss records are ranked eight, nine, and ten. Eighth-ranked Atlanta has the third-lowest DVOA for any 6-0 team in the DVOA era, behind only the 2000 Vikings (1.2%) and the 2006 Colts (9.2%). I suppose there's worse company to keep; the Vikings made it to the NFC Championship game that year, and the Colts won the Super Bowl after Bob Sanders got healthy and their defense suddenly woke up in the playoffs. (Vince Verhei explains why the Falcons aren't as good as their record in this ESPN Insider article.) To be honest, the fact that 4-2 and 3-3 teams rank so high in DVOA makes me feel more confident about the ratings, not less. If I want to figure out who can make a playoff run in a year with so many close games, I would rather put my faith in teams that have streaks of dominant play -- albeit inconsistent streaks -- rather than teams riding a couple of lucky bounces and three-point victories to the top of the standings. And despite the fact that the win-loss records look all mixed up on the DVOA ratings table, it's interesting to note that only one team is over 0% with a losing record (2-3 Tampa Bay at 0.6%) and only one team is under 0% with a winning record (4-2 Arizona at -6.6%). Of course, not all close games and late comebacks are created equal. Of the four games from Week 6 with big fourth-quarter comebacks, one particularly stands out. From the mention above that the Chargers dropped significantly in DVOA this week, you can probably guess which game that is. Over at Grantland, our old buddy Bill Barnwell does a good job of pointing out that the Broncos weren't really playing that badly when they were down 24-0 at halftime of last night's game. Yes, they had struggles in the first half, but not struggles that would be commensurate with a 24-0 deficit. But the second half was a stomping that requires a thesaurus to describe properly. Should we go with bewildering? Overwhelming? Gargantuan? Monumental? How about "elephantine?" Moving on to the other big trend of 2012, power has gradually been sliding from the AFC over to the NFC over the last couple of seasons, but I've got to imagine this is about as extreme as it can get. Not only are the top four teams by DVOA all NFC teams, but so are 10 of the top 15 teams. Even worse, the bottom eight teams in the league are all AFC teams. The teams ranked 29-31 right now are all from the same division, the AFC South. Of course, everything in the NFL is cyclical. A few years ago, the AFC was perhaps as dominant as the NFC is right now. Check out the DVOA ratings from 2004, when the AFC had the top five teams and the NFC had only two teams in the top dozen. The massive conference imbalance has a major effect on the Football Outsiders playoff odds. Despite a wrenching loss and wins for all three of their division rivals, the Patriots' playoff odds only dropped by five percentage points this week. Even if they lose their division -- which now happens in one-third of all our simulations -- which two teams are going to get past them for a wild card spot? Houston has it even better than the Patriots do. The Texans got clobbered by Green Bay, dropped from second to ninth in DVOA, and still saw their playoff odds drop by less than one percent! It's just really hard to imagine that a loss to an NFC opponent is going to kill an AFC team's playoff chances this year. If DVOA is any guide, there are four teams clearly favored to win the four AFC divisions: Denver, Houston, New England, and Baltimore. DVOA doesn't know about Baltimore's injuries, of course, but Pittsburgh isn't exactly a prime example of health right now either. Because the rest of the conference is so far behind those four teams -- the only other AFC team with a positive DVOA is Miami -- those four AFC teams each have more than a 20 percent chance of making the Super Bowl. The NFC has much more competition, so Atlanta is currently the only team listed with more than a 20 percent chance to make the Super Bowl (because, despite their lower DVOA, they are currently in pole position for the number-one seed). 1. Giants 2. Packers 3. Bears 4. 49ers 5. Broncos 6. Patriots 7. Seahawks 8. Falcons 9. Texans 10. Ravens 11. Vikings 12. Dolphins 13. Rams 14. Redskins 15. Bucs 16. Lions 17. Jets 18. Cowboys 19. Cardinals 20. Eagles 21. Steelers 22. Panthers 23. Bengals 24. Saints 25. Chargers 26. Raiders 27. Bills 28. Browns 29. Colts 30. Titans 31. Jaguars 32. Chiefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtsimonw Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Think I'd have Houston above Denver in the AFC, certainly above New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted October 18, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted October 18, 2012 And the playoff/Super Bowl odds Falcons: 98% to make playoffs, 97% to win division, 48% to make conference championship, 24% to make Super Bowl, 13% to hoist the Lombardi Trophy Texans: 99% playoffs, 97% division, 52% championship, 27% Super Bowl, 12% Lombardi Patriots: 89% playoffs, 66% division, 40% championship, 23% Super Bowl, 12% Lombardi Bears: 83% playoffs, 51% division, 34% championship, 19% Super Bowl, 11% Lombardi Giants: 82% playoffs, 71% division, 34% championship, 18% Super Bowl, 11% Lombardi Broncos: 95% playoffs, 92% division, 40% championship, 20% Super Bowl, 10% Lombardi Ravens: 94% playoffs, 82% division, 43% championship, 21% Super Bowl, 9% Lombardi Packers: 71% playoffs, 36% division, 24% championship, 13% Super Bowl, 8% Lombardi 49ers: 70% playoffs, 51% division, 24% championship, 13% Super Bowl, 7% Lombardi Seahawks: 71% playoffs, 43% division, 20% championship, 9% Super Bowl, 5% Lombardi Dolphins: 55% playoffs, 16% division, 10% championship, 4% Super Bowl, 1% Lombardi Vikings: 37% playoffs, 12% division, 7% championship, 3% Super Bowl, 1% Lombardi Jets: 42% playoffs, 14% division, 5% championship, 2% Super Bowl, 1% Lombardi Steelers: 37% playoffs, 12% division, 4% championship, 1% Super Bowl, 1% Lombardi Redskins: 25% playoffs, 13% division, 3% championship, 1% Super Bowl Cowboys: 13% playoffs, 8% division, 1% championship Bengals: 23% playoffs, 6% division, 2% championship, 1% Super Bowl Bucs: 10% playoffs, 2% division, 1% championship Eagles: 13% playoffs, 8% division, 1% championship Lions: 5% playoffs, 1% division, 1% championship Cardinals: 9% playoffs, 3% division, 1% championship Chargers: 25% playoffs, 6% division, 2% championship Bills: 21% playoffs, 3% division, 1% championship Rams: 7% playoffs, 3% division, 1% championship Colts: 9% playoffs, 2% division Panthers: 2% playoffs Raiders: 7% playoffs, 2% division Saints: 1% playoffs Browns: 2% playoffs Titans: 3% playoffs Chiefs: 1% playoffs Jaguars: 1% playoffs There's basically only 4 good teams in the AFC: 1 of them will almost certainly be in the Super Bowl and even if those are only going to win the game a third of the time (which is roughly a point spread of 7) that still means that the Texans, Broncos, Ravens, and Patriots each have an 8% chance of hoisting the Lombardi. Meanwhile in the NFC, every team that makes the playoffs, and probably a team or two that miss the playoffs, would be favored over most AFC entrants and could pull upsets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtsimonw Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Surely at this point every team should have at least 1% chance of winning it all/making Super Bowl/Championship game/Playoffs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted October 22, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted October 22, 2012 Chargers being investigated for using Stickum in loss to Broncos The Chargers blew a 24-0 lead last week in losing at home to the Broncos, 35-24. And now it looks like that outcome might be the least of San Diego’s problems. FOX’s Jay Glazer reported Sunday that the NFL is investigating the Chargers after the team was caught using a substance that was similar to Stickum — an adhesive that players used to use on their hands to help them catch the football. According to Glazer, a line judge in that Chargers-Broncos game confiscated a towel that one of San Diego’s equipment managers was passing around to players during timeouts. The towel allegedly was covered in the Stickum-like substance. There’s no telling what sort of punishment that the Chargers will face for this transgression — the fact that they lost the game probably won’t hurt their cause. At the very least, San Diego has to expect to be hit with some sort of fine, though stricter penalties like the loss of draft picks or player suspensions could result from the investigation. The NFL banned Stickum in 1981, though some players admitted to using it after that cutoff date. Philip Rivers completed 25 of his 41 passes in the Chargers’ Monday night loss to Denver, while also throwing four interceptions. San Diego had three drops in the game, according to Pro Football Focus, matching the team’s high total for the season. Even when they're cheating, they can't win... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted October 23, 2012 Moderator Share Posted October 23, 2012 The team I love to hate. It helps that Rivers is such a gobby prick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtsimonw Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yep. To think he might've been a Giant, just the thought of it makes me sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts