Week 12 - The West Win

[BOF]

It took me 4 or 5 repetitions to realise it wasn't about Manning

[leviramsey]

Those camera guys are showing more fight than the Texans...

[AVFCforever1991]

[packoman]

Saints(-8) @ Falcons 

Steelers @ Browns(-1.5)

Jets @ Ravens(-3)

Buccs @ Lions(-8)

Vikings @ Packers(-5.5)

Chargers @ Chiefs(-4.5)

Bears @ Rams(-1.5)

Panthers(-4) @ Dolphins

Jacksonville @ Texans(-10)

Titans(-1) @ Raiders

Colts @ Cardinals(-3)

Cowboys @ Giants(-2.5) 

Broncos(-2.5) @ Patriots 

49er’s(-5.5) @ Redskins 

 

If you pick the favourite at home and they win, you get 1pt.

If you pick the favourite away from home and they win, you get 1.25pts.

If you pick the outsider at home and they win, you get 1.5pts.

If you pick the outsider away from home and they win, you get 2pts.

 

 9-5 and 13.75pts(I think)

[leviramsey]

Aaron Schatz: Well, Ridley looked really good there for a couple carries. Fumble. TD Denver. Enjoy the witness protection program, Steve. Pats need to find whichever coach taught Tiki Barber to stop fumbling and bring him in here, ASAP.

@Daniels_Ryan: Manning is starting to understand how Brady felt years ago, winning games with dominating defense.

Aaron Schatz: Looked like Brady may have gotten hit in head on sack-fumble, but I think it was head snapping back and hitting his own OL. Ouch.

@WhispersMoCo: Broncos using the intelligent approach: the center of the Pats' run defense is non-existent right now.

Aaron Schatz: The 3 fumble thing is a bit fluky, but unfortunately for Pats you don't get a "flukiness" mulligan to reset the score from 17-0.

Aaron Schatz: OK, that's five. This is ridiculous. At least the fumble luck is now more even! (Most muff punts are recovered by rec team of course)

Rob Weintraub: Winged prediction--Broncos will rue not recovering that last Edelman fumble. Pats make game of this now.

Aaron Schatz: It's almost as if three star players right in the middle of the Pats defense are out for the year or something.

@blotzphoto: These Denver runs look unstoppable right now. It's just the same play over and over.

Aaron Schatz: Trying to figure out how Pats suddenly can keep Von Miller off Brady. Need tape. Looks like Gronk is chipping Miller a lot.

Danny Tuccitto: Love how Belichick takes the wind, and every tweet about it on my TL ends with "...interesting."

@GDFar: Between drops, fumbles, and penalties, the Broncos are the sloppiest team I've seen heavily favored for a 1-seed.

Danny Tuccitto: With the wind, Gostkowski boots FG out of the stadium a la Pat McAfee's "Breaking Madden," right?

Aaron Schatz: Proper ending would be fumbled snap on third down, then Pats hit FG to win on fourth.

Rob Weintraub: Only conclusion to draw from that weather-controlled slopfest was--get ready for the New York Super Bowl!!

Aaron Schatz: OK, I tweeted so many things about this roller-coaster that I'm not sure what I have left to say. This has to be considered one of the all-time classic games in Patriots history. Just insane.

A lot of what's going on here will require re-watching. I'm not sure how the Pats started being able to stop the runs up the middle in the second half, and then how that ability disappeared again. It looks like the breakdown of the Broncos' pass rush after halftime was in part related to DRC's injury. That had Von Miller dropping back more. When he did come, the Pats chipped him a lot more with Gronk.

The DRC injury didn't kill the Broncos at corner because they have good depth there. Quentin Jammer doesn't have much left but if Jammer is your fifth corner, that's a nice situation. However, the Broncos safeties were having trouble with Gronk. A lot of trouble. It looked like the Broncos did better when they had Danny Trevathan on him.

Also, the Broncos were just getting killed by play-action in the second half. Another element of the big comeback.

The refs really allowed a lot of physical play. Lots of plays that could have easily been holding or pass interference, and plays where I would notice holding on one guy only to have it called on a completely different guy because both players were doing it. But they were even calling penalties on both teams and they called the game consistently all five quarters.

I'll let Scott Kacsmar talk about the decision to kick in overtime and my question to Belichick in the post-game press conference. That whole thing is really his baby.

Oh, and when the Broncos went up 17-0 with the three fumbles, I was saying to the other people around me that weird stuff happens in the NFL and the game wasn't over. I pointed out the game two years ago where the Pats were down 21-0 to Buffalo and won 49-21. Ron Borges laughed at me, saying "Yeah, that's not Buffalo out there." Nope, it wasn't. But I was right. Weird stuff happens in the NFL. I was even correct when I told Borges that a Patriots comeback win was likely to involve Brock Osweiler. I just didn't know HOW it would involve Osweiler, apparently.

Scott Kacsmar: "If Bill Belichick can take the wind, I can take the wind."

I doubt that's what the other 31 head coaches are thinking now, but maybe this will help others make that decision in situations where it's applicable like last week in Chicago. I'm not going to spend too much time talking about it as I have plenty to write in other articles, but I think it's a very defensible decision.

This was probably the worst game Peyton Manning's played since a game against San Diego (or Dallas) in 2010. He didn't look up to the task of driving 80 yards into the wind for a game-winning touchdown. Of course I said the same when it was 31-24 and he pulled off an 80-yard drive with his best throws of the night, but force him to try that again while not being able to use four downs. Taking the ball out of Tom Brady's hands seems crazy on a night where he had five consecutive scoring drives in the half, but I think the wind was significant in this one and the New England defense was playing well enough to justify doing it.

It took 34 modified overtime games, but we finally have a coach who kicked off. Of course it was Bill Belichick, but isn't he the one it needed to be if we are to see more bold decisions in situations like this?

As for the game itself, it was crazy. I'm not going to overreact and I don't think much of it will help in a rematch, but I will say there are three troubling things for the Broncos:

1. Jack Del Rio still has few answers for slowing down Tom Brady's offense. That stretch of 31 points on five drives was absurd.

2. The Broncos still have major ball security issues. I know the Patriots had six fumbles (three lost) and Denver had five fumbles (three lost), so the weather was a factor, but Denver's problems have been persistent and tonight were more their own doing than good hits by the Patriots. Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker also had at least five combined drops.

3. The receivers can't get separation when defenses play them tough. For all the talk about New England's banged-up secondary, those guys covered well. Just like in the Baltimore playoff loss, almost every pass Manning threw was contested with a Patriot draped over a Bronco. That severely limits YAC and makes every throw have to be perfect or else it's a dangerous interception opportunity. Even the first touchdown pass was threading the needle. On the Eric Decker interception, I saw Wes Welker get knocked down, which was probably one of the many examples Aaron was talking about in referees letting them get away with contact. For as much as Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth praised the Colts' defense a few weeks back, this looked more impressive to me, even without Julius Thomas active. The Broncos need to find legal ways to get their receivers open more, because every defense should try copying the physical re-routing concepts.

[BOF]

Looking at our remaining fixtures, I think the only game we are at risk of losing is next week's one in Arrowhead. We're then home to Tennessee & San Diego and finish in Houston & Oakland. If the Pats are going to catch us they'll need to run their schedule, which by the looks of it they probably will. Only a heroic effort by Baltimore in Baltimore could beat the Patriots. Everyone else will fall comfortably I think.

[leviramsey]