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Tubby

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Posts posted by Tubby

    The AVFC FFP / PSR / SCR thread

    in Villa Talk

    Posted · Edited by Tubby

    Sinisalo is a candidate for profit imo.

    His reputation is rising already, so add a Championship loan to his experience and he could well be a James Trafford at this time, next year.

    As much as we might like to retain him ourselves, the rules are prohibiting that.

    Enzo Barrenechea

    in Villa Talk

    Posted · Edited by Tubby

    7 hours ago, Leeroy said:

    I've watched clips of him and he looks like he held his own in Serie A last season, albeit for a poor side, he's also good on the ball, I'd be perfectly happy if he's a Donk or Tim replacement but from what I've seen he's a downgrade on Kamara and I'd be worried if he was going to start every game for us in the first half of next season. Hope that is reasonable for you. 

    So, a backup to Kamara is not as good as Kamara. Shocker!

    As you say, the kid held his own in Serie A, in a poor side. There are loads of examples where players have risen to top having started in a similar position.

    How about you let The Master coach him and reserve judgement until you've seen him play in our system, with our players.

    • Thanks 1

    The AVFC FFP / PSR / SCR thread

    in Villa Talk

    Posted

    51 minutes ago, quazzie goat said:

    I think the key from those accounts will be the 24/25 amortisation? The likes of Martinez, Mings, Konsa will now have a nil value and not be factored in? Plus getting rid of Sanson, Coutinho, Luiz will contribute. Naturally there be incoming players amortisation to factor. 
     

    The big one though I think will be the wage total will be slashed considerably to make the club leaner for the years ahead until the commercial side of the business is fully flowing. Few of my own assumptions on amounts and potential departures added;

     

    Sanson: £60k pw - £3.12m pa, Coutinho: £135k pw - £7m pa, Luiz: £75k pw - £3.9m pa - all confirmed (Coutinho close) - £14m a year saved in wages. If we included this seasons loan players of Zaniolo and Lenglet, that’s probably close to £7.5m wages = £21.5m overall saved. 
     

    If we assume a few departures: Olsen, £50k pw - £2.6m pa, Hause: £25k pw - £1.3m pa, Dendoncker: £90k pw - £4.68m pa, Digne: £130k pw - £6.76m pa, Chambers: £50k pw - £2.6m pa and maybe £20m incoming fees? Total roughly £19m saved on bit part players apart from Digne.
     

    Overall c£40m wages pa. There’s also arguments to be had for Carlos, Moreno, Cash and Duran who have had transfer rumours to depart. 
     

    Signings will join naturally, but our wage budget has long been too high and on players that aren’t offering the team or squad enough. Careless contracts issued in the past which I don’t think Monchi will tolerate moving forwards. 
     

    In short, I think we have plans to trim the fat where hopefully we’re not going to be in a position to sell key players again.
     

     

    Is it the case with PSR, that a contract renewal extends the amortisation period?

    I couldn't find anything in a search that confirmed this expressly, but I think I've seen others mention it in this forum.

    If so, which players are getting new 5 year deals, this summer?

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    Summer Transfer Window (2024/25)

    in Villa Talk

    Posted · Edited by Tubby

    51 minutes ago, Tomaszk said:

    Good points you've made around about this.

    Would you agree that we're starting from a poor deal, which could improve to a decent one, then a good one?

    It's all around these guys coming in.

    I personally think that it is a good deal already.

    1. The incoming players are at a fee that is below what it would have taken to purchase them in an open market.
    2. I personally think we will be pleasantly surprised about their quality, even as squad depth options. Berrenechea is certainly better than Dendonker and Tim. Iling Jr adds a nice option in a position of need.
    3. We have navigated the existing PSR issues and improved our position in future seasons.
    4. Doug had two years left on his deal. Valuations of £60m+ are not representative of the position that the club was in there.
    5. His replacement hasn't been signed. When they are, overall the squad will be stronger.

    I'm gutted he's gone, but sentiment doesn't help us navigate the challenges we've faced and will continue to face. 

    • Like 9
    • Thanks 1

    Summer Transfer Window (2024/25)

    in Villa Talk

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Philosopher said:

    I'm happy with the talented young players coming in from Juve, but £42.5m for Luiz is an absolute bargain. That fee should be at least 60m. 

    But it's artificially low, as are the fees for incoming players.

    Big boys sat around a table and worked it all out. We have maximised overall value for, not just the player sale, but the related expenses (Man Citeh clause, taxes etc.) and reduced incoming PSR burden, which will benefit from this time next year.

    • Like 3

    Douglas Luiz

    in Other Football

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, sne said:

    Because I really rate Luiz and the return is unproven at best atm. The money also feels low considering what inferior players have moved for. Fully understand there are other factors involved thou.

    There are many reasons that the fee is low and they have been discussed at length, in this thread and the transfer window thread.

    It's a good deal for the club all around. The incoming players will reach their potential under UE and neither of them are direct replacements for DL.

    Douglas Luiz

    in Other Football

    Posted

    2 hours ago, rjw63 said:

    What the **** did you lot do regarding transfers when there was no internet and only the Evening Mail and Sports Argus?

    Probably not born or still on the teat 😂

    Ceefax

    Douglas Luiz

    in Other Football

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Czarnikjak said:

    I'm not convinced that sell of Dougie alone was enough to clear our 23/24 ffp position (it's only £35m after deducting City sell on clause).

    If that was the case we would have delayed booking profits from Kellyman and Tim until 24/25 accounts.

    Agreed. I could have worded it better.

    Douglas Luiz

    in Other Football

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

    Or the more likely one is that we had a weak position and Juve the strong one and €50m was most we could get them to pay along with the deal to take two of their players they wanted to sell (hence McKennie and Iling Junior). Once McKennie was out because of a Juve issue with his money owed then we got lucky in getting a player they didn't want to sell in Barrenechea. 

    The clubs view was this plan was best, keeping Luiz for the season and selling in the weaker position of June this summer. It probably cost us about £10m in value if we could sell at best price this summer. Additionally he leaves the PL which I expect was a desire also. 

    I don't see this as a desperate sell.

    Juve were also weak due their cash flow issues and in us, they too, found a willing trade partner.

    Summer Transfer Window (2024/25)

    in Villa Talk

    Posted

    Personally I don't see the clubs transfer policy as being one that signs 30+ y/o players, especially on extortionate wages. The priorities seem to be:

    1. Young players with experience and high potential 
    2. Players at, or entering, their prime, for a bargain price
    3. Young players to sell on for a higher value

    The signings we are making are mostly known quantities, that don't contribute to, and don't destabilise, the economics of the club or the performance of the squad. 

    It's a low risk approach overall, where the either the squad benefits immediately, or the club benefits in the long term.

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    Douglas Luiz

    in Other Football

    Posted

    6 hours ago, DakotaVilla said:

    You’ve literally just invented a series of events in your head, with no supporting evidence at all, to suit your narrative- that is pretty much the definition of deluded.

    Many were talking of Luiz as an 80+ million pound player. He has been sold for approx for half of that. If there was any formal interest in him from any other club it would have been leaked because it would have been in our interest to create a bidding war etc. 

    This transfer in itself is a great example. There was no formal announcement at any time but we were literally updated on an hourly basis re McKennie being involved and then not etc. 

    Doug was never going to go for £80m. Not with two years left on his contract and not signing a new one. The fee, at best, could have been £50m-£60m.

    Now, why wasn't the fee in that range? Because the excellent people that run our club have engineered the deal for their benefit.

    1. The fee received for Doug, cleared the PSR requirements.
    2. We pay less Tax on the gains and a lower sell-on to Man Citeh - just the right amount to ensure we don't fall foul of PSR and not do Juve
    3. The two inbound players have both come in at reduced fees too.
    4. That helps us to reduce the burden on our future books
    5. The two inbound players fix squad depth problems, that would have cost us a lot more if attempting to purchase on the open market.
    6. We can now utilise additional funds to purchase Doug's replacement - someone that wants to be here and plays at the same or a higher level.

    So why didn't more clubs bid for him? Perhaps they did, but they were probably told no deal. Juve have proven to be willing partners, Doug himself is following Alisha there and the value created by the deal overall, is a lot better than straight cash.

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 2

    Ian Maatsen

    in Villa Talk

    Posted · Edited by Tubby

    12 minutes ago, villan-scott said:

    His parents really missed a trick not calling him Iaan.

    His dad's name is Maat.

    Ian is Maatsen.

     

     

     

     

     

    I'll get my coat.

    • Haha 2

    Jacob Ramsey

    in Villa Talk

    Posted · Edited by Tubby

    18 minutes ago, Rossi said:

    JJ won’t be going nowhere 

    You've used a double negative here.

    So in an act to cover all bases, I hope you're wrong!

    🙃

    • Haha 2

    Jacob Ramsey

    in Villa Talk

    Posted · Edited by Tubby

    To think we made it to the top four without JJ. Him coming back and playing at his level, will be like a new signing for us this season. 

    • Like 2

    Kosta Nedeljković

    in Villa Talk

    Posted · Edited by Tubby

    3 hours ago, Brumstopdogs said:

     

    Although the links to Kayode are exciting, I get the sense that this kid is special.

    I've no idea how they would co-exist in the same team. It's a nice problem to have I suppose.

     

    • Like 1
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    Summer Transfer Window (2024/25)

    in Villa Talk

    Posted · Edited by Tubby

    Re: All this chatter about UE's preferred formations and types of players.

    He's Unai Emery, he'll bamboozle everyone except himself!

    One week we might be left loaded, the next right or through the middle. He'll even change it mid-game. 

    UE is building a versatile and balanced squad. We'll be able to play; wide; narrow; two up top; diamond; square with two in the double pivot; 3, 4, 5, even 6 at the back. You name it, the players will be in the squad.

    The guy is a genius and I can't wait to watch him cook this season.

    #masterclass

    • Like 5

    Summer Transfer Window (2024/25)

    in Villa Talk

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Isa said:

    Player rotation issue is a fair point as Emery does seem to like to stick upon a settled team. Although I suppose he would argue that he didn't have the calibre of back up options to readily change line-ups game-to-game, as was exposed towards the end of the season. 

    Big concern for me is the #2 GK issue. Martinez has started getting little niggles here and there and they usually get worse with age. I know we were linked with that random Brazilian guy the other week but until we see a few more GK links, I fear we might start next season with it still being Olson.

    The fact Gauci wasn't even played in the dead rubber vs. Palace suggests to me he was signed to be a loan out, sell on kinda signing. 

    re: rotation. I think that is very much the case. Due to injuries, the players on the bench were often academy players, so these moves will ensure that the matchday squads (20 for PL, 23 for ECL) are full of impactful players.

    As a minimum, the team will be playing 50 games next season: PL 38; ECL 8; FA Cup 1; League Cup 1. I can see rotation becoming a feature of UE's game planning.

    Summer Transfer Window (2024/25)

    in Villa Talk

    Posted · Edited by Tubby

    We need quality depth for the ECL. Positions where we could see additional incomings:

    RB (Kayode), CB (Tobido), AM (Baena), CF (Beier).

    We might also see a quality starting CM too.

    Things I like about the moves we are making are:

    • quality of depth is improved
    • young players with potential
    • versatility for multiple formations and in-game changes

    Things that concern me:

    • ensuring all these players get game time - some will be clear rotation options, others will expect to play every week
    • it's an excessive amount of turnover
    • player bonding and matching UE's expectations, will undoubtedly take time, especially with so many young players

     

    image.thumb.png.bf67d1df200883cf860eb3c5f5d4d488.png

    • Like 2
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