Awol

You’re ahead of me mate, do you have a link to the treaty text?

As the bloke who led the Leave campaign I think it’s fair to classify him as a Leaver.

Not read it yet so can’t offer an informed opinion, but it’s interesting that points that could never be negotiated or removed, like the backstop, clearly have been - confirmed by Barnier. That’s the difference between having a Remainer and a Leaver as PM.

It’s going to get interesting on Saturday. The anti no-dealers will have to out themselves as anti any-dealers. Reckon it’ll be voted down, extension applied for then a GE with clear, unambiguous positions. Corbyn already saying Labour won’t vote for it - despite not having seen it!

Russia is more interested in what’s offshore than onshore - the eastern Med’ is floating on natural gas. If properly developed those fields could offer Europe a viable strategic alternative to Russian supplies, reducing Moscow’s leverage over Germany in particular. Not surprising that Putin’s very keen to either control the project, or act as a spoiler for it if necessary.

Pity the coup against him failed, as quite a few people mentioned at the time. Reuters reporting Erdogan’s latest threats in a televised speech this morning. Apparently if Europe continues to label Turkey’s invasion of Syria as an invasion, he will open the border and drive more Syrian refugees into Europe. Meanwhile the Iranians are mulling sending 1000’s of security force personnel into Iraq to quell the anti-government demonstrations. NE Syria (& our Kurdish partners) are the nexus around which that whole theatre pivots. It effects Iran, Iraq, Turkey & Syria directly. The fact Trump did this after a chat with Erdogan, who has sought & gained Putin’s consent, tells you everything. Bad ju ju.

Media not a great source for this stuff & it’s also pretty difficult for Western governments to admit having built up the loss of the Caliphate as terminal for ISIS. They began preparing a return to waging insurgency even before Mosul was retaken. ISIS are in it for the long haul & maintain support because the underlying social factors that enabled their rise (corruption, political sectarianism etc) remain unchanged in Iraq & Syria. If you fancy digging into it google the Institute for the Study of War, they do great work tracking what’s really happening.

Massive anti-government protests growing across southern Iraq, scores of civilians murdered by security forces & Iranian aligned militias. Turkey preparing to invade NE Syria & smash the US backed Syrian Democratic Forces - Syrian Kurds plus some local Arab tribes. ISIS recovering rapidly, carrying out a devastating assassination campaign within areas it formerly occupied, and is assessed to have the strength to attack and take a major urban centre in Iraq or Syria if it chose to (but more likely to continue rebuilding its operational strength, for now). Far too many plates spinning in the region right now & odds of another major disaster unfolding are shortening quickly.

Those behind the US decision to pull the plug on the JCPOA seemed to believe (against all historical evidence) that ramping up sanctions would push Iran back to the negotiating table - to incorporate their conventional missile programme, support for terrorism & non-state armed groups - & into a new, improved JCPOA. Those sanctions have pretty much closed down Iranian oil exports & the attacks in Saudi are them pushing back against the US by demonstrating they can hold global energy supplies at risk. IMO they’ve got the measure of Trump’s bluster (all fart & no s**t) & are trying to force an end to US sanctions, gambling he won’t risk conflict before the 2020 elections. Concurrently, Iranian, Chinese & Russian naval forces are shortly to conduct joint exercises in the Gulf of Oman, next to the Straits of Hormuz. This bandwagoning of illiberal states (increasingly to include Turkey) is part of a wider challenge to the so called ‘rules based liberal order’, freedom of navigation at sea, etc. FWIW I think things might get quite bumpy over the next few years with lots of possible flash points - Korean Peninsula, South China Sea, Persian Gulf, Ukraine et al. The West is unprepared materially or psychologically to deal with any of it, which isn’t great. Also looks like we might be in for the next round of Arab uprisings, the Egyptians are getting back on the streets demanding Sisi is removed - he’s locked up 60,000 political prisoners since coming to power & is more repressive than Mubarak ever was. I don’t know enough about the internal politics of Israel to understand how that’s gonna turn out, but externally it seems likely they’ll be in a big fight with Hezbollah before too long. That really depends on how it goes between the US & Iran. The IDF hitting Iranian militia & IRGC targets in Iraq (x3) has raised some eyebrows!

Any events in particular? There's quite a lot happening!

Yes we were poor, individual and team performance. But WT actual F happened at the end?? Put VAR in the bin because that was a Farking joke.

Trez challenge for 2nd yellow was a shocker.

Set pieces are shite.

All of this but the likes of Trez & Jack aren’t trying to beat their man, always looking for the pass instead of taking people on. We’re lacking aggression in attack.

Yes & yes.

No signs yet. Deano needs to straighten them out at half time.

No interest in talking to you until you can manage a little civility, Stefan. Cheerio.

Please see my previous reply to you. I haven’t been exploited by anyone, but thanks for your concern. Anyway, there’s a bit too much friendly discussion round here for my taste. Back to the books for a while..

I’ve wanted to leave the EU since the Lisbon Treaty and debated it endlessly on here long before Brexit was a thing. It’s a shame people like you can’t accept others have reasoned themselves into holding the opposite view to you without being duped. Still, at least you only called me stupid, not a fascist. That’s progress.

You’re aware that the actual negotiation was conducted out of the Cabinet Office, not the Department for Exiting the European Union, right? Maybe you’re not.

We disagree about a course of action. Few people on this board care about this country more than I do.

You don’t need the fullstops, Stefan. I can read. The EU Withdrawal Treaty was negotiated by people who didn’t actually want to leave, hence the outcome being so bad it was defeated 3 times by historic margins. That’s not a deal, it’s a failed attempt to negotiate something acceptable to both sides. You may believe no deal now means no deal ever. I disagree.

People will perform whatever mental gymnastics they choose to justify the outcome/position they prefer. What matters (to me) is we now, for the first time, have an executive determined to deliver on 2016. They may not succeed but I’m pretty chuffed someone is having a go.

Cheers for that.

We’ll do a trade deal at some point, if it’s not negotiated immediately then so what? May lay down like a dog & was happy to let the EU walk all over this country. Once we are out the imperative of blocking Brexit dissolves, then we’ll have an election and the voters will decide what happens next. It’s ace.