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leviramsey

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Blog Entries posted by leviramsey

  3. leviramsey
    A 2-0 loss at home and a pair of clubs near us in the table beating clubs at the other end of the table. Disaster?
    Our chances of staying up actually slightly improved.
    16th 0.1% unchanged17th 0.6% +0.1%18th 2.4% +0.9%19th 12.3% +4.1%20th 84.6% -5.1%Villa: 99.3% (-0.1%) Sunderland: 86.9% (+8.0%) Swansea: 43.4% (+7.4%) Bournemouth: 28.8% (-12.6%) Newcastle: 24.1% (+1.2%) Norwich: 15.2% (-3.2%) West Brom: 1.2% (-0.3%) Chelsea: 1.1% (-0.4%)
  4. leviramsey

    Picks for 10 November

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 75-109, -196.45 units (-11.58%)

    Panaitolikos to win -133: risk 7 units to win 5.26
    NAC Breda +1 -120: risk 7 units to win 5.83
    Roma to win -375: risk 9 units to win 2.40
    Roma -1.5 -115: risk 8 units to win 6.95
    Metalist Kharkiv to win -160: risk 5 units to win 3.12
    Metalist Kharkiv -1 +120: 6 units
  5. leviramsey
    Dead cats apparently have a reputation for bouncing.
    The relevance to Villa after a home loss to Watford may not be clear, but it is perhaps in that light that one should consider this fact:
    Villa's chances of staying up improved despite a home loss to Watford. Whether the change was major (it more than doubled!) or minor (the difference was 0.3%) is a question of the observer's perspective, but the fact remains: the club are in a slightly better place today than last week.
    Crazy, huh? Of course, our chances of finishing rock bottom increased as well:
    16th 0.1% +0.1% 17th 0.4% +0.2% 18th 1.3% -0.8% 19th 6.1% -4.1% 20th 92.1% +4.6% One [possible] reason for this phenomenon: the clubs immediately above us are close enough in goal difference that nearly any scenario where we finish level with them sees us with a better goal difference.
    Villa: 99.5% (-0.3%) Sunderland: 67.6% (-22.2%) Bournemouth: 66.1% (-13.5%) Newcastle: 48.6% (+30.6%) Swansea: 13.7% (+9.7%) Norwich: 3.3% (-5.2%) Chelsea: 1.0% (+0.7%) West Brom: 0.1% (unchanged), Stoke: 0.1% (+0.1%)
  6. leviramsey

    Picks for 9 November

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 73-106, -189.96 units (-11.43%)

    Reims to win +319: 5 units
    Montpellier DNB +111: 6 units
    Borussia M'gladbach to win -158: risk 6 units to win 3.79
    Borussia M'gladbach -1 +112: 6 units
    Real Sociedad +2 -101: risk 6 units to win 5.94
  7. leviramsey
    Despite both Newcastle and Bournemouth notching wins, our chances of staying up managed to slightly improve.
    16th 0.1% unchanged17th 0.5% +0.1%18th 1.5% +0.2%19th 8.2% +2.1%20th 89.7% -2.4%Villa: 99.4% (-0.1%) Sunderland: 78.9% (+10.5%) Bournemouth: 41.4% (-24.7%) Swansea: 36.0% (+22.3%) Newcastle: 22.9% (-25.7%) Norwich: 18.4% (+15.1%) Chelsea: 1.5% (+0.5%), West Brom: 1.5% (+1.4%)
  9. leviramsey

    Picks for 19 October

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 63-91, -161.37 units (-11.83%)

    Hull +1 -105: risk 6 units to win 5.71
    Southampton +1 -125: risk 8 units to win 6.40
    WBA DNB +120: 6 units
    Heerenveen DNB -135: risk 7 units to win 5.18
    Atletico Madrid DNB -275: risk 7 units to win 2.54
  10. leviramsey
    Getting a draw against the league leaders was not enough to dramatically improve the Monte Carlo's estimations, but it didn't dramatically hurt things (not that things could have gotten much worse). This is not really a cause for pressing the panic button. The Monte Carlo's assessment is now just about solely based on the period when you could fairly say that other sides figured out Sherwood. Assuming that the level of performance Remi Garde brought out of the team is the new normal, as some of the worse performances under Sherwood "age out", the story of the next few rounds of Monte Carlos will be steady improvement.
    There was still improvement, in some sense, in the Monte Carlo's assessment: our chances of rock-bottom decreased!
    17th 0.2% -0.1%18th 3.5% +1.4%19th 17.7% +6.9%^^^ upper quartile20th 78.6% -8.1% median, maximum likelihoodVilla: 99.8% (+0.2%) Sunderland: 96.0% (+11.1%) Bournemouth: 82.6% (+14.9%) Newcastle: 6.2% (-8.3%) Norwich: 5.3% (-20.6%) WBA: 3.9% (+0.6%) Swansea: 3.5% (+3.0%) Chelsea: 1.9% (unchanged) Liverpool: 0.8% (-1.0%)
  13. leviramsey

    Picks for 26 October

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 64-97, -207.97 units (-14.49%)

    West Brom +1.5 -140: risk 10 units to win 7.14
    Reims +1 -120: risk 8 units to win 6.66
    Bayer Leverkusen to win -180: risk 12 units to win 6.66
    Bayer Leverkusen -1 -105: risk 13 units to win 12.38
    Twente -1 -135: risk 5 units to win 3.70
    Antalyaspor DNB +140: 11 units
  14. leviramsey
    I want things to be stable, but not this kind of stable... The good: Losing 4-0 to Everton didn't really hurt us.
    The bad: It definitely didn't help us.
    Our relgation chances stay the same, though the chances of finishing bottom increase somewhat.
    17th 0.2% unchanged18th 2.1% -1.4%19th 10.2% -7.5%20th 87.5% +8.9% Median, most likelyVilla: 99.8% (unchanged) Sunderland: 89.8% (-6.2%) Bournemouth: 79.6% (-3.0%) Newcastle: 18.0% (+11.8%) Norwich: 8.5% (+3.2%) Swansea: 4.0% (+0.5%) Chelsea: 0.3% (-1.6%) West Brom: 0.1% (-3.8%)
  16. leviramsey

    Picks for 19 September

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 37-62, -173.50 units (-19.68%)

    St. Gallen to win +155: 5 units
    St. Gallen DNB -130: risk 9 units to win 6.92
    Esbjerg +1 +105: 5 units
    Slovan Liberec +0.5 +107: 7 units
    Rijeka +0.5 +117: 7 units
    Sheriff Tiraspol DNB +105: 7 units
    Tromso +2.5 -105: risk 8 units to win 7.61
    Shakhter Karagandy +1.5 -130: risk 6 units to win 4.61
  19. leviramsey

    Picks for 17 September

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 36-54, -118.00 units (-14.59%)

    Shakhtar Donetsk to win +250: 5 units
    Olympiacos to win +275: 6 units
    Olympiacos +0.5 -135: risk 9 units to win 6.66
    CSKA Moscow +2 -105: risk 12 units to win 11.42
    Viktoria Plzen to win +367: 5 units
  20. leviramsey

    Picks for 15 September

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 33-53, -133.10 units (-17.34%)

    Kalloni to win +225: 6 units
    Hellas Verona to win +110: 6 units
    Hellas Verona DNB -180: risk 9 units to win 5.00
    Rubin Kazan DNB -195: risk 10 units to win 5.12
    Granada DNB -150: risk 10 units to win 6.66
  21. leviramsey

    Picks for 26 September

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 56-77, -113.71 units (-9.61%)

    Amkar Perm DNB -175: risk 6 units to win 3.42
    Betis to win +295: 7 units
    Betis DNB +189: 11 units
    Celta de Vigo DNB +155: 6 units
    Espanyol +1 -150: risk 10 units to win 6.66
  22. leviramsey

    Picks for 18 September

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 37-58, -137.50 units (-16.26%)

    Steaua Bucharest +1 +100: 9 units
    Zenit St. Petersburg +1.5 -130: 9 units
    Celtic +1 -105: risk 9 units to win 8.57
    Ajax +2.5 +100: 8 units

    It's a dog day afternoon for western hemisphere Champions League bettors...
  23. leviramsey

    Picks for 29 September

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 61-87, -149.72 units (-11.42%)

    Panaitolikos to win +265: 5 units
    Heerenveen to win -125: risk 7 units to win 5.60
    Heerenveen -1 +135: 6 units
    Udinese DNB -110: risk 5 units to win 4.54
    Torino +1 +100: 6 units
    Lazio DNB -225: risk 5 units to win 2.22
    Amkar Perm DNB +115: 9 units
  24. leviramsey

    Picks for 28 September

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 58-81, -130.64 units (-10.43%)

    Marseille DNB -130: risk 5 units to win 3.84
    Man City to win -195: risk 7 units to win 3.58
    Man City -1 -110: risk 7 units to win 6.36
    Freiburg +2 -125: risk 7 units to win 5.60
    Napoli to win -130: risk 5 units to win 3.84
    PSV DNB -180: risk 6 units to win 3.33
    Maritimo DNB -175: risk 5 units to win 2.85
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