Enda

8 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

If we equal Emery's career worst run of 22 games, we get 25 more points and finish on 60. Decent chance of 7th again.

If we equal our results from last season for remainder of this one (which include six Gerrard/Danks games that got us 4 points), we'll finish on 69 points. We'd be unlucky to not get 5th with this total, and would have a chance of 4th.

If we equal Emery's career average points over 22 games, we get to 74 by the end of the season. We'd be unlucky to not be 4th. 5th pretty much guaranteed.

If we maintain Emery's record over the last 41 games for the remainder of the season, it's an 80 point finish. 4th guaranteed, reasonable chance of 3rd, small chance of 2nd.

11 home games left, 7 of which against bottom half sides, 3 against sides chasing us for 4th in Newcastle, Man Utd and Spurs. We should be banking at least  20 points from those and probably more.

Our remaining away games are tougher, but we might only be needed around 1ppg from those to get 4th/5th. Maintaining our current "poor" away form gets us another 15 points. That plus doing the minimum I'd expect at home gets us to 70.

 

Very good post, Tom.

Implicitly you’re assuming there’s no chance of a disaster, a patch where we are worse than we’ve ever been with Emery.

This is fair enough based on past experience, but it’s not that hard to imagine a scenario where we revert to 1.0 ppg (or worse) for a patch. A straight red card and three match ban for Martinez would do it, for example. An injury to Boubs would hurt us. And obviously a dry spell for Ollie would do it too.

We also need to expect one of the teams behind us, Spurs or Chelsea or Brighton for example, to go on an extended unbeaten run and catch right up with us.

I still think Top 4 is more likely than not. At this stage I think we’ll finish exactly fourth. But 6th wouldn’t surprise me a bit. There might only be a few points between 4th and 6th, and that’s definitely in the range of possibility.

18 minutes ago, Captain_Townsend said:

Separate point, Why do so many villa fans talk their own club down?

Birmingham-gitis.

33 minutes ago, mjmooney said:

I think what we are saying is, OK, nothing is guaranteed, BUT it would take a collapse of MASSIVE proportions for us not to qualify for CL now. And I can't see that happening with Emery in charge. 

I think the world is much more uncertain than some others.

I put the probability of Top 4 at about 60%. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if we came 5th or 6th.

And 5th or 6th would still represent an excellent season for us. Best in years, especially considering the added European games.

Hope I’m wrong. But a little bit of sober judgement will make it easier the next time we get turned over by Forest or whoever.

Does anyone know if City usually face this many shots in one half?

What a half. We are going toe-to-toe with the best team in Europe, and have been the much better team.

I am very proud of us as a club right now.

19 hours ago, Kiwivillan said:

People going out of their way coming up with hypothetical reasons why City will. Pathetic but par for the course. Negative chicken littles. Does it make people feel better to say I told you so if we lose?

We’re just giving our actual assessments of reality. Sober judgment of the facts on the ground. Would you prefer willfully biased, blind optimism??

We haven’t kept a clean sheet in about 5 years. Of course I’d take a draw.

I expect us to get at them though. We’ll probably score too. But realistically they’ll likely just score a bit more more than us. 3-1 loss is my prediction. They are the best team in Europe, after all.

(Prove me wrong, Ollie.)

How much would the Greek number 9 for AZ cost? £20m? He impressed me.

Bournemouth scored twice today. One from an awful mistake/pass by Carlos, and an excellent swivel and finish for their second. But they should have scored at least four.

The ref bottled it. Should have sent at least Semenyo off. And he didn’t and that changed the game. But let’s be honest Bournemouth should have scored at least four and that’s not the ref’s fault.

Cash needed a rest and so the back line was disjointed. A new RB would be preferable to playing Konsa, a top top centre half, out of position.

Martinez man of the match. Watkins with a very impressive finish. Zaniolo looked like a lost child. Tielemens very inconsistent, sometimes excellent (one tackle around 60 mins was pure class) but sometimes muck (loose passes).

Overall we were lucky. Two moments of excellence from our attack, and marvelous saves, earned us a point from an otherwise daily turgid team performance.

The question asks which we'd prefer this season.

I'd love us to win the FA Cup this season. I'd rather that than access to the Champions League cash cow just so we can win the FA Cup a year later

All in due course. We're about three players short of Top 4 imho* and we'll be better able to push on next year.

* We'll get an injury. The drop-off in quality in GK, RB, CM, and Ollie means we'll have a tough patch sometime between now and March. Imho.

Historian Tom Holland (from The Rest is History podcast, not the actor) is a Villa fan.

In a continuing series of Brexiteers having very little idea about international relations, we now have this all-time classic from Steve Baker MP.

The EU can’t do business with these clowns.

1 hour ago, NeilS said:

I need to see it again from a better angle, but if Bailey is not on the goal side of the defender as the defender heads it he can’t be offside, same as if a team mate pulls the ball back to him. I think the ruling was made from Watkins header rather than the defender header, I don’t know if that is correct method anymore. 

My reading was:

- The “shot” is cleared off the line. By this point Bailey is offside because the keeper had strayed a yard out.

- The “save” is by the defender who never gains control of the ball, so it’s like a keeper pushing the ball away.

- Bailey receives the ball, as if he’d been offside from a shot and scored from the rebound. We’d all call that offside.

On the one hand, it’s madness. On the other hand, you have to hand it to the linesman. That’s US Supreme Court level of argument right there.

3 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

When the defender heads the ball off the line, Bailey is behind the ball, so not in an offside position.

Behind the keeper though, wasn’t he?

I’m going to be Mr Unpopular here and say our offside goal was a bloody fantastic call by the linesman. I never would have reached his conclusion. I always think of “last man behind the ball” as the last defender but, in this specific moment, the keeper and the defender on the line have essentially switched places. Very good officiating to notice that, even if it’s a decision against us.

We were quite poor for large parts of the match, but were the better side.

Dougie's pinpoint pass won us the game.

A number of players could do with a rest. Diaby, for example, did very little.

The French Bailey in midfield has been quiet enough.

Bailey been a bit disappointing.

The English Bailey up front has been feeding off scraps.

The commentator is calling all of our black players “Bailey”

Mat Ryan making Olson look cool as ice.

19 minutes ago, MotoMkali said:

What rot are you lot chatting

He's been injured, and emery has probably been asked about him and emery has said yeah he's a world class talent he just needs to make the most of it. 

I don’t think that’s the full truth. Given the stuff with his social media and now Emery says “I don’t know” when asked if there’s a problem, there’s more than enough reason to think there’s been a bit of an argument. Fights happen all the time at football clubs and they’re rarely made fully public.

37 minutes ago, Kiwivillan said:

Rewind a week or so it was get the hell out of my club. What was that O'Leary word?

Lads.

It was lads. “Decent, hard-working bunch of lads.” Every time.

58 minutes ago, Jareth said:

I heard he''s fed up of Duran Duran puns so has changed his surname to Wet-Wet

He feels it in his toes.