The next virus....next week, next month, next year.....could come from almost anywhere.....the focus on China is largely an irrelevant distraction in the wider scheme of things...here’s an article from 12 years ago ..........

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature06536
 

Global trends in emerging infectious diseases

Global richness map of the geographic origins of EID events from 1940 to 2004.....

The map is derived for EID events caused by all pathogen types. Circles represent one degree grid cells, and the area of the circle is proportional to the number of events in the cell.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes

How does coronavirus kill? Clinicians trace a ferocious rampage through the body, from brain to toes

A very detailed study of how the disease works, including the effect it is having on kidney function and the need for dialysis.

An economic shutdown has huge consequences. A social shutdown has huge consequences.

Pretty sure we would all agree with that.

But had we just experienced a devastating nuclear holocaust and accompanying radioactive fallout and the swamping of our Health Service would a return to work/ canoeing/the pub be being talked about after a couple of weeks ?

Well I’m sure we could find someone who would, but my guess is 99.9% wouldn’t....and would follow any advice, regardless of cost, if it meant better prospects of recovery.

In which case, the debate over when to “ end lockdown” is really just a Function of how serious people think this is. Where on the scale between nuclear holocaust (10) and say, measles (1). The closer to 1, the more likely you are to favour an end to restrictions, and frame arguments accordingly. The closer to 10, the opposite.

Nothing more, nothing less, however it is wrapped up.

Personally I’m with the overwhelming number of informed people who consider it to be incredibly serious. The more I study the evidence, the more convinced I am.

Well said 

5 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

A useful read in terms of the timescales we are talking about here, to temper any optimism we might be feeling (ha!):

On timescales:

'There are, practically speaking, three paths out of the coronavirus crisis, to a way of life that resembles the one interrupted by COVID-19. The first is a vaccine. The second is effective treatment for the sick — not just effective at the margin, but so effective that catching the disease becomes a considerably less worrisome prospect for even those with comorbidities. The third is through herd immunity, when enough of the population has acquired COVID-19 antibodies that even with a return to “normal” life, there wouldn’t be enough opportunities for disease transmission for the virus to continue circulating through the population.

[...]

Here are the timelines for each of the three. The most optimistic projection for vaccines is that they begin to be available this fall; other reputable estimates suggest between one and two years from now. A two-year development cycle would be unprecedented speed for any vaccine, and, while scientists are quite optimistic, no vaccine has ever been developed for a coronavirus before; onto each timeline you’d have to add some amount of time for rollout and administration.

The treatment picture is murkier, but the drugs being tested today are repurposed ones, not designed to combat COVID-19 but deployed on the chance they might help. One in particular, remdesivir, is showing some real promise, but in general it is hard to bet confidently on repurposed drugs to be miracle cures of the kind that dramatically change the clinical shape of the disease and its treatment. Serological treatments offer some promise, but testing is only in the earliest stages. And the drugs likely to really “cure” the disease are just notions in a lab, at this point.

That leaves herd immunity. Epidemiologists tell us it requires between 60 to 80 percent of the population to have antibodies. At the moment, though, lack of testing means we don’t have a clear picture of the spread of the disease; a generous rough estimate for how many Americans have been exposed is 5 percent. While there are some reasons to hope that the exposure could be significantly higher, 5 percent would be more than ten times higher than the number of known cases, and would be in line with large-scale serological surveys in Holland (where the disease has been relatively widespread), suggesting that 3 percent of the population had antibodies. Others projections suggest that the U.K. is only 5 to 6 percent through the course of its pandemic, and recent models estimate an immunity level of about 6 percent across seven European countries. And it means, taking that generous figure for disease exposure and the low-end threshold for herd immunity, we would need 12 times more exposure than we’ve had to this point — in other words, that we are only one-12th of the way through this crisis.

That may sound bleak, and there are some indications that the population spread could be much more broad. But assuming no wild underestimate of total asymptomatic cases, one-12th of the way through the crisis is a very optimistic projection, if not quite a best-case scenario. It is possible that even less of the public has been exposed — perhaps one percent or lower. At that level of exposure, we could be only one-80th of the way through the pandemic, requiring 80 times more infection and exposure to attain herd immunity than we have had to this point.'

Excellent article in my view and thanks for posting it.

I find it really disturbing how quickly “ the conversation” has moved onto coming “out” of the pandemic, including amongst my own family despite my best efforts.

It is so typical of the modern way. When we have a plane crash or similar we get a day or two of the horror of the event.....then we move onto a couple of good news stories about how someone escaped or whatever, then a day or so later we are into “ how did it happen/ books of condolence “ etc.....then we move on.

Seems to me much of the population are conditioned to now think this way ( and in this case led by Trump) and that it’s time to “ get it done” and move on.

Whilst it’s of course obvious we can’t stay shut down forever, it’s very early days....and regardless of movement restrictions being lifted there is then going to be a very very long period when life will be very risky, and a great deal of care will be needed....which I can’t see happening.

And without being over dramatic, “it” still won’t be over.......there are plenty opportunities for this virus to mutate, and plenty opportunities for more, of greater toxicity, to develop in the future.

3 hours ago, Brumstopdogs said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52336209

 

The Care Home situation is, and has been for a month, catastrophic.

9 minutes ago, terrytini said:

I must be getting sick.

Just watched the U.S. Coronavirus Taskforce Briefing and it was factual, helpful, coherent and constructive.

Bizarre experience.

Completely coincidentally, Trump wasn’t there.

Oh dear, I spoke too soon ...

21 minutes ago, Chindie said:

If immunity isn't achievable then this has buggered us.

Well all they’ve said is that there “ is no evidence that having had the virus would guarantee immunity”.

Quite right to say so aswell, since it’s too early to have evidence of very much at all yet.

And it’s way too early to say “ guarantee”....in fact it may never be possible to guarantee it. 
 

That’s not the same as saying immunity “ isn’t achievable”.

What America would look like if the adults regained control.

I must be getting sick.

Just watched the U.S. Coronavirus Taskforce Briefing and it was factual, helpful, coherent and constructive.

Bizarre experience.

Completely coincidentally, Trump wasn’t there.

3 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Well, that's pretty frightening.

Must admit I’m almost of the view it might help in the long run....the last thing we want is for Governments to avoid having to Test and Trace by relying on antibody tests and a vague hope that immunity might be significantly more robust than is usually the case.

The support for the Government over this issue isnt much less depressing than the actual virus. At least the virus will be gone one day. That people who think this has been handled well will apparently be in the majority doesnt bear thinking about.

Im not after miracles, or fortune tellers, but a brief read of just this thread alone shows how much was known, and possible, at a far earlier stage. 

I rarely see UK news and prefer other places for my information but the wife was watching Sky a News just now and I caught the back end of a piece saying that the R-naught figure is now believed to be less than 1.

Fantastic news if true, but as yet I’ve not been able to confirm it.

Edit - in particular I don’t know if that figure is purely based on us all being at home ( I imagine it must be) ....in which case whilst still good news it’s not near as fantastic of course.

Just now, brommy said:

More neighbours and louder tonight in my Close and across the estate. Some interesting instruments too - plenty of pots being banged  and even bagpipes played!

Likewise, much more noise, singing, chatting, clapping. 

6 minutes ago, Genie said:

I have to pay the balance on my Spanish July holiday next week. I suspect they will not offer any refunds or free alterations until AFTER they are holding my money.

If it were me I’d read your contract terms very closely so you know the position accurately rather than guessing.

Not being funny but if you struggle with such things send me a copy I’ll have a look....(as an ex Trading Standards Officer I’m a bit out of touch but will do my best ).

Just now, DCJonah said:

My brother in law is set to get married in Cyprus at the end of July. Thats not going to happen right?

The wedding company have told him it will all go ahead, coincidently just as final payments were required. 

He's convinced it will be fine and that 30 of us will be flying out to celebrate it. 

 

Personally I wouldn’t go near an airport or aeroplane until I’ve been vaccinated. No way.

14 minutes ago, LakotaDakota said:

Looks like nearly everyone dying already has something that could potentially lead to their death and this is essentially flipping the switch and causing a worst case scenario for everyone at the same time.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52308783

More than nine in 10 people dying with coronavirus have an underlying health condition, figures from the Office for National Statistics show.

The ONS looked at nearly 4,000 deaths during March in England and Wales where coronavirus was mentioned on the death certificate.

In 91% of cases the individuals had other health problems.

The most common was heart disease, followed by dementia and respiratory illness.

The average number of conditions those who were dying had was 2.7.

 

Interesting, although perhaps not unexpected.

At least 13 Million people in the UK have respiratory illnesses, 8 million have heart related illness, and there’s a million with dementia.

These are just those we know of.

Some of these people overlap of course but that means there is easily 12-15 million, or a fifth to a quarter of the population, that have these conditions. 

As such it’s perhaps not surprising that a virus which primarily attacks the respiratory system would give figures like this.

Interestingly of course, that “fifth to a quarter” also appears to be the percentage of people who get the virus and develop symptoms.....

7 minutes ago, snowychap said:

As someone in the replies suggests, it looks like Cummings is back.

I remain of the view that “they” love the dissatisfaction the public are showing with the Lockdown.

A clamour from “ the people” to be allowed to mix, pursue activities, and get back to work, is like 18 year olds rushing to enlist in 1914.

57 minutes ago, sne said:

Think a lot of places driven by need, greed and necessity will try and re-open in the coming months. Some might even be successful.

For most places thou I think it will be like going from 28 Days Later to 28 Weeks Later and a total disaster. And once the autumn comes most of us will settle in for the long night.

Think it will be at least until the summer 2021 before we are starting to get back to anything close to "normal". And traveling abroad for holidays will be even further away.

Agree. I am increasingly seeing debate about returns to work, whether we will have a bounce, “ passing the peak”, and second waves.

Perhaps it’s the modern way to always subconsciously want to move on to the “ next thing”.

The reality as I see it is - in the absence of a vaccine being developed and widely administered next year at the earliest - that this is  premature.

The UK currently has 100,000 known cases with the current science suggesting 4/5 people are asymptomatic. So maybe 500,000 infections. Let’s be optimistic and say a million. Which could be a million with ( some ?) immunity.

Which means we still have 60 odd million. Getting a million immune in this scenario has cost at least 20,000 lives and heaven knows how many serious illnesses. And needed incredible ongoing dedication from Health workers WITH a lockdown.

I think we are on a roller coaster. We are getting to the top of the first ascent, and lost many overboard. But that sequence is going to be repeated a lot - in fact almost endlessly - before we can get off. And I don’t see any reason why the first ascent is even necessarily the highest one.
I don’t think it’s a “ second wave” that’s the issue yet as much as the duration of what could be a much longer, undulating first wave.

I very much hope I’m wrong !

5 hours ago, Enda said:

Fairly sure komp = kompromat, the quasi-military term for having dirt on a political rival. Putin allegedly taped Trump sleeping with escorts, i.e. the pee tape.

Trump is friends with Ed Glazer, who owns a football club in Manchester.

No idea what the sitcom stuff is about.

Komp also means “ knockout mouse”......the term for genetically altered mice used in labs - including labs experimenting with Coronaviruses and treatment thereof.

I thought it was just me !

Another crazy rant from Trump at a briefing almost totally devoid of facts, during which he said absolutely nothing of value and during which he launched another ludicrous tirade against everyone and anyone, and defended the deaths per head of population in the US as looking worse because pretty much every other Country is lying....all topped off by him declaring “ we (POTUS) can do whatever we want”.

Terrifying.

13 minutes ago, Brumerican said:

Kind of get the feeling that there's still a few days to go before people realise the extent of what's happening right now.

 

 

 

I’m not sure many that still don’t see it will ever really grasp it, either through ignorance or denial.

And it doesn’t help that our media seems light years behind the story.

Mentioned in this thread 3 weeks ago that the Stats were not recording many dying at home, many dying in Care Homes, or others dying in hospital if no Co-vid test performed Post Mortem ( and that Post Mortem were being waived).

A few days ago the press finally catch on to the Care Homes, and now tonight they’ve finally realised there’s loads dying at home and not recorded.....

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/15/sharp-rise-in-ill-patients-dying-at-home-since-coronavirus-outbreak?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Warning as coronavirus outbreak leads to sharp rise in deaths at home

“The A&E chiefs’ minutes said that on the weekend of 4-5 April the number of 999 calls in which someone had had a cardiac arrest rose from 55 a day in normal times to 140. Most of the people concerned died, doctors said.”

“A&E doctors believe that many of the extra deaths from cardiac arrest are due to Covid-19 which, by making it difficult for someone to breathe, puts serious strain on their heart. “Of these 85 extra cardiac arrest deaths a day in London, they must be mainly Covid,” said the head of one A&E department.”

That’s just London. CNN are tonight reporting the same type of story for New York.....I’ve no idea why it’s taking the media so long to get to grips with these stories but it’s essential they do to stop this utter nonsense that the Death Rates etc aren’t so bad after all.