terrytini

8 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

Lewis Goodall has been one of the few voices in the media focusing on the terrible situation in care homes. Here's an extract of his wider stuff tonight from Newsnight that I would encourage people to watch:

Here's a Twitter thread where he lays out some of the dynamics at play in what is becoming an increasing crisis in the care sector that could see parts of it collapse in the near future. It's long-ish, but it's worth reading:

 

Thanks id not seen the interview.

Sadly I’ve no doubt whatsoever it is actually significantly worse than even he is finding out.

I have direct knowledge of a Care Home using unscreened, untested, agency staff drafted in from domiciliary care ( but still doing that aswell). No assessment whatsoever is carried out on these workers, where they’ve been, how many domestic premises they visit, what precautions they take. When visiting in the Community they have no PPE. Theses same careers are aware of what they think are Co-vid related deaths amongst their clientele - but the lack of Post Mortem mean there is no record in some cases, and even where there is a PM the Carers are not necessarily informed of Cause of Death.....they only hear on the grapevine.

The possibility of transmission back and forth is clear.

Within the homes, protection is rudimentary. It’s always been clear social distancing is impossible with many residents, especially where there is dementia and other diseases......so PPE and Testing are absolutely critical. Testing is so rare as to be virtually non existent. 

Residents who get hospital treatment - for whatever reason - return to the home without being tested.

I know of Care Workers in my own general locality who have contracted the virus, and who have lost family members.  One has lost three family members.

I am as convinced as I’ve ever been of anything that the situation with cate Home deaths and deaths in the community is catastrophic.

(* and as for illnesses ........)

6 minutes ago, Wainy316 said:

Well most of them are thick as pig shit so they’re a lost cause anyway.

Surely he’s not going to hold onto the swing voters now?

Im not sure of anything any more. But that exercise in narcissism and self aggrandisement should’ve turned the stomach of all decent people. ( even those who think what he said was true).

That awful awful man has absolutely no sense of shame or decency.

The suffering of Americans has barely merited a mention in a Press Conference which has been exclusively about how fantastic he is.

Sickening. And I’m afraid I’m also sickened that anyone can support him. 

42 minutes ago, Genie said:

So you’re saying that counting the amount of free beds we have is too complex for the NHS to be expected to report? Very odd indeed, especially in a pandemic that has led the government to create thousands of extra beds because they know they will come under severe pressure...

 

No I didn't say any such thing.

I thought this was very funny. Although since the guy who said it is part of a behavioural science team advising the Government, maybe it isn’t ( from the Guardian)

“One solution would be for landlords to ration how much beer they serve, to two or three pints, he said. Customers would then be politely asked to go home.”

...yeah right, that’d work

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/27/coronavirus-easing-uk-lockdown-require-tough-enforcement-rules?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

3 hours ago, VILLAMARV said:

Perhaps, if the above post is true it would suggest the forces have been drafted in to fulfill this role, which in turn would suggest there was previously no such mechanism in place. 

Don't forget in England the various trusts are in competition with each other over care provision. It's not necessarily one organisation as per the company model you cite.

That's before I throw the question back to you of define 'in use' does that mean occupied? With a patient in it receiving treatment? With a dead body in it? After the sheets have been changed? And define 'critical care bed' is that on an icu ward? A bed with a ventilator next to it? etc.

It's not a binary thing that's easily defined. Hence its a burgeoning multi million pound industry. 

You are quite correct. Beds. How many. What type. What staff. Staff absentee/ illness levels current and forecast. What equipment. What medicines. What ancillary staff. What Porters. What current occupation/vacancy level. What occupation in 6 hours. More ? Less ? Factor in the weather forecasts. What % emergency provision held in reserve. How does this correlate to the next Hospital along. What about that Private Hospital. Where is the next best spillover location. Ambulances. Paramedics. Morgue capacity. Crematorium capacity. Coroners availability. 
 

And much more. Then add in Care Homes, sheltered housing etc. Then multiply it by 80, in the case of Wales ( 80 hospitals) and multiply it by god knows what for the Homes, Private facility’s and even surgeries. Co-ordination is required across all that.

And through the pharmaceutical supply chain and much more.

Then , the daily results of that need to be considered with the relevant ones from elsewhere, then decisions taken on resource distribution and the effect of these decisions monitored.

I have no idea what the answer is to the original question, but the “ admin” is rather complex to say the least. Which is why Senior people are involved.

26 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said:

 

I assume we have posters here who could confirm or deny such things but are contractually obliged not to.

The nhs in Wales, overseen by public health wales, is comprised of hundreds of different organisations. It's more complicated than a simple phone call to the department of health.

I have ( very) close family members in more than one of the Forces and can’t say much. But I can say I know of at least one fairly senior member of the armed forces who does nothing but collate and coordinate such data for an area the size of North Wales. If that helps.

( I say ‘nothing but’.....the data is used for many things, resource planning/ allocation and much more)

11 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

I wonder if 'think of the children brigade' will continue to be used as a term to mock others?

I won’t comment on that specifically but I will say the whole point many have tried to make repeatedly is that very very little is known for certain about this Virus, ( and next to nothing about what may happen over time) which is why so many Doctors, epidemiologists, and governments, have seen the need for extraordinary steps to be taken.

So, whilst in two years we may look back and say some things were overdone, it is just as possible that in two years we will look back and consider everything that’s being done to be massively insufficient.

I know which I’d prefer.

Just a cautionary note - whilst the Journal is legit, and the Paediatric Intensive Care Society is aswell, no report I’ve found links directly to the original alert, so for the sake of certainty, let’s say this ISNT fully confirmed as yet.

However, a glance through various medical professionals Twitter Feeds suggests it is believed by them and, sadly, confirms what they have begun hearing from other countries.

“[In the] last three weeks, there has been an apparent rise in the number of children of all ages presenting with a multi-system inflammatory state requiring intensive care across London and also in other regions of the UK.

“There is a growing concern that a [Covid-19] related inflammatory syndrome is emerging in children in the UK, or that there may be another, as yet unidentified, infectious pathogen associated with these cases.”

https://www.hsj.co.uk/acute-care/exclusive-national-alert-as-coronavirus-related-condition-may-be-emerging-in-children/7027496.article
 

edit : decided to leave this here but see my Post a bit further down page

3 hours ago, DCJonah said:

He claims this is an authentic email doing the rounds. Obviously not confirmed anywhere and potentially could be complete bullshit but thought I'd share with the 'fake news' warning. 

It’s not fake. It’s real, and could be very disturbing.

EDIT - still unconfirmed actually

7 hours ago, snowychap said:

Therein lies the problem.

You seem not to be getting the difference between saying that there's overlap between the groups at risk of death from coronavirus and death due to other reasons and saying that those who died would have died anyway (with whatever qualifier people deign to add - fair chunk/largely, for example).

Thank you.

7 hours ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Why? 
 

It is an absolute fact that some will have, how many we don’t know of course but it’s 100% correct that some will have.

It’s sad, tragic in some cases, no one wants specific individuals to die but it’s a guaranteed eventuality for all of us, I don’t know why an adult conversation can’t take place on this.

 

It’s very ‘think of the children’ to just dismiss it so readily.

The clue is I said “ ideas”. 
 

I didn’t say “ I can’t believe we are still hearing some people would have died anyway.” 
Because as you say it’s a simple fact.

I was referring to the  use of this simple fact in the development of ideas questioning the veracity of the virus, and the reaction to it.

I am sorry I really did think that was obvious ! Ah well, it is now.

7 hours ago, Seat68 said:

Weren’t you an early adopter of the old and infirm being nothing more than collateral damage. The arguments then are the same now. 

Thank you ....I assumed we all knew what I meant, and what I meant had nothing to do with the obvious fact that yes, some people who died would’ve died anyway.

4 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

Yep, I get that now, it's what I didn't realise an hour or so ago - I'm naively assumed that you died, got a death certificate and that certificate was then counted for the next day - which I think was Sharky's original point about people (like me) not understanding the data. 

I'm now just trying to understand the figures that Sharky had mentioned and the NHS charts - according to the NHS charts we know about 105 deaths yesterday so far - that figure will rise significantly over the next week or so, makes sense to me - I'm just wondering if I'm missing anything in the NHS charts where Sharky had originally said 350.

 

For completeness I’d add that not all deaths are Post Mortem’d and checked for Co-Vid, the existing requirement was relaxed a few weeks ago. 

Can’t believe we are still hearing the “ would’ve died anyway” ideas

26 minutes ago, sidcow said:

No, a conservative estimate is a working approved vaccine by September this year. Oxford University hope to have 1m by then and have started manufacturing them NOW to hit that figure gambling that they have got it right and the human tests they are already undertaking work out. 

Late 2021 is a pessimistic estimate. 

 I will let the two of you debate what is optimistic and pessimistic, but reality is as follows ;

They ARE aiming to have 1m doses available by September, true. They are producing them without knowing whether they will work. 

And they are hoping - in a best case scenario - to have the efficacy results of the Third Phase of Trial by the Autumn, and have expressed an 80% confidence these trials could show the vaccine protects against the virus.

If all that pans out, they hope to then have the ability to provide vaccine for emergency use.

Their own publications on the issue stress these are highly ambitious best case time frames and subject to change.

Theyve not made a prediction for a best case time frame of sufficient quantity for general vaccination of the population.

2 hours ago, Stevo985 said:

Yeah I think that’s a lot to do with it. 
 

People are realising they can get away with travel and trips out and the like. 
 

I said it before. People are inherently selfish. Half the country are more bothered about what they can get away with than what will make the virus worse

If you add ignorance to that selfishness you have the problem in a nutshell.

The most informed debate I’ve seen anywhere outside CNN has been in this thread, and even in here there is a huge spread of awareness as to the severity of this virus. I’ve tried to keep my own family informed but even within that there are huge gaps in their understanding.

The sad truth is the ‘lockdown’ here will basically melt away before being loosened by Government in Mid May. 
 

And by August we will be back where we started ( albeit with some better infrastructure in place).

3 hours ago, DaveAV1 said:

No work related stress, more healthy and if you love your missus you’ve got it made Terry 

Yes indeed ...joking ( and the awful gravity of the situation) aside I consider myself personally very lucky and very content.

Particularly as being socially isolated is my ideal way of life. I literally miss nothing other than the Villa......

......and to be honest that was pretty crap half the time

2 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

love to 'come into close contact with at most a handful of people'

(this is actually from Burnley, can't find one from VP)

You could always get a Season Ticket for the Blues

2 hours ago, bannedfromHandV said:

They defo haven't experienced going for a piss at half time...........the splashback alone results in coming into contact with about 30 people.

 

There’s no way a virus could survive in those bogs.

4 hours ago, Paddywhack said:

Where? I can't see anyone.

Quite brilliant