3 minutes ago, Genie said:

Does it suggest that isolation not necessarily a solution in all scenarios? It’ll be crippling the economy and not offering much in the way of a solution. 
I wonder why it’s being so ineffective in Italy?

I’m leaving the thread but...

one reason that’s been posited is that they had a specific guy in the worst affected region who was ill all through January, in and out hospital but not diagnosed. By the time they identified him he’d had weeks of spreading the virus, to an elderly close knit population.

Which of course could happen anywhere . But might not .

 Ditto the Hotspot in the USA - a Care Home. It’s pretty logical that if you get a insular group, then one infected person could cause chaos ....especially if the people aren’t the healthiest.

So, it’s one thing lots getting it, but lots getting it over a long period should be the norm. It won’t prevent massive hotspots, and those hotspots may provide the bulk of the deaths.

4 minutes ago, romavillan said:

Demographics in the UK aren't radically different to here.

True, but they are different. Again, there is research on the issue that  things I’ve mentioned MIGHT make a difference, which is all I’m saying.

Having posted one post to point out some reasons for hope I’m starting to get bogged down in several debates with people who are telling me the negative side - of which I’m fully aware and have Posted on quite a bit.

Not wishing to have those debates - no future in them other than despair - I will bow out

Just now, romavillan said:

Yeah, 47 year old doctor over here gone today too. The mortality rate definitely gets lower the younger you are but it doesn't seem to disappear.

It doesn’t disappear there is a wealth of data on the deceased and it includes people in their thirties and forties.

But people in those age groups have underlying health conditions too...and they arent always known.

It must be remembered that for a percentage of people ( and I may be one so I’m not minimising it) the virus is ‘simply’ bringing forward a date that wasn’t too far off already.

People with underlying health conditions were going to die every week, and they still are, so some of the numbers are these people.

It doesn’t make it ok, but it is part of seeing the whole picture, not just the worst thoughts.

An overconcentration on the individual stories can only really cause extra anxiety....there is little context.

1 minute ago, leighavfc said:

The only thing I will say about that is traditionally the elders of the family live at home with the rest of the family in Italy. Unlike here where we have care homes and people living at home rather than with family. They think this is major reason why Italy is so bad, as the kids are carrying it home passing it to grandma and grandad and them getting Ill and dying. Obviously it's not the complete story but very different to many countrys.

And significant elderly population. And high proportion of smokers.

Of course we could be as bad, or far worse.

But it isn’t inevitable.

1 minute ago, OutByEaster? said:

Italy is currently at 400 cases per million people - I think it's very likely we'll reach that level of infection - whether the proportion of those that die reach the same levels as Italy is questionable, but it's also almost unimportant - there are projections with thousands of cases per million people in countries where the infection exists, maybe ten times the rates we're seeing currently in Italy - we're at the beginning of this and I think to view Italy as the worst case scenario is unfortunately a very optimistic view.

 

It was intended to be an optimistic view if you read the Post in which I first mentioned it. 
The whole of what I posted to Mark was to present the hopeful side. There’s plenty of the opposite everywhere.

1 minute ago, markavfc40 said:

Unfortunately Italy is happening everywhere. Look at Spain. Our numbers are heading exactly the same way and we will be where Italy are in the next couple of weeks maybe worse given our inaction.

I totally understand most of us will be fine but that doesn't take away from the fact that a lot of people won't be.

I don’t think it is Mark. From everything I’ve read it is almost a worst case scenario. There’s hundreds of countries, they aren’t all like Italy, yet some have been closer to the epicentre both geographically and in people movement.

We might be where Italy are. But we might not.

I agree with your closing sentence. I wasn’t taking away from that, just providing some hopeful ideas.

1 minute ago, tonyh29 said:

I Can’t see anything about what his underlying issues were on the stories I’ve seen ,  but , I’ve been wondering about this as all they seem to be saying is “x died but had underlying health issues”

it would probably be useful to know what these  other issues were so we can help protect those that have  them  ...  

It’s been widely stated it’s primarily respiratory illness, heart disease, cancer, and diabetes. Although, of course, anything which weakens the immune system will increase risk.

Ive suffered with three of those and when I had the flu a couple of years back I was very ill. For 3 weeks I only got out of bed for the loo. Lost a lot of weight. Fevers, the lot. But...

..it WAS bearable. So for those who have not experienced it, if you aren’t made critically ill, so if you are one of the 80% who get infected but “ just” get ill.....it’ll be tough but ( in my view) you’ll get through ok.

If it helps to share these things.....I also had a Pulmonary Embollism ( blood clot) in my twenties that broke off from the vein in my leg, went through my heart and lodged in my lung. Had a bigger piece broke off - kaput.

I can say the resulting pain from trying to breathe was unbearable. It began in the morning, and by the time I was trying to pick up the phone next to my bed I couldn’t. The strain of moving made it impossible. When the girlfriend got in at 6pm she called an ambulance, I was rushed to hospital and put on a drip. It was touch and go.

Two days later I was well on the way to recovery, albeit with a partially collapsed lung.

So, again, take heart.....we are built amazingly well.

33 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

Yes same here. My mom is 75 (dad died 18 years ago) and brother who has kidney issues.  I don't have a clue obviously but you sense this will wipe out millions if we don't get a grip on it. 

Don’t lose heart mate.

Theres other possibilities....warm weather might help, might help a lot......the use of unproven vaccines on seriously ill patients could throw something up......the initiative of the many ( not those we see on Facebook in pubs and airports) in self isolating will play a part.

Every disaster/war looks hopeless at the start........

We will produce more ventilators, more medicine. Those that get ill and recover will help keep things going.

If Italy hadn’t happened, whilst we would all still rightly be worried and careful we would be less frightened, and Italy hasnt happened everywhere.

And, finally, it remains the case that the evidence suggests most who get it will get over it.

I share your fears but just wanted to share my hopes

38 minutes ago, Kingman said:

France is warning people not to take anti inflammatory drugs such as ibuprofen as it may make Covid-19 symptoms much worse.

Anti-inflammatories may aggravate Covid-19, France advises

French minister says patients should take paracetamol rather than ibuprofen or cortisone 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammatory-drugs-may-aggravate-coronavirus-infection

Nobody with respiratory illnesses takes/ should take ibuprofen unless they’ve medical advice to that effect it aggravates all breathing issues.

1 hour ago, hippo said:

I disagree the govts approach so far is self regulation - you want/need rationing do it yourself tescos ....you need security - hire it....

Don't expect the state to bail you out !

I hope people thinking that way are in a tiny tiny tiny minority.

4 minutes ago, Kingman said:

My local Tesco/Morrisons hardly anything left so stopped at local Nisa on way back to get the lotto and got everything i needed! 

All the shelves were full and no queuing up either so i treated myself to a Terrys chocolate orange or 3  

Yes I’m afraid any willpower Ive had to moderate my eating recently has gone out the window. Sod it !

5 minutes ago, leighavfc said:

Heard similar too. Again no info to back it up with either but they are being primed to step in in some sort of capacity. As expected though really... s**t has started getting a little real over the last few days with the panic buying etc.

Yes. The panic buying will almost certainly pass but can cause a lot of fear and worry that it’s Armageddon when pictures first show up. It’ll calm down. 
More than panic buying I’d expect the military to have an input into looking after distribution areas and links. 
Again, in my view it’s welcome.

Just now, leighavfc said:

Heard similar too. Again no info to back it up with either but they are being primed to step in in some sort of capacity. As expected though really... s**t has started getting a little real over the last few days with the panic buying etc.

Yes I mean it’s obvious they will be making preparations for areas to be subject to martial law IF things evolve to worst case scenarios....not as frightening as it sounds it’s only like the U.S using National Guard.

But my sense is that the majority of things will be in ensuring transport functions, deploying camp/ bed/ medical facilities, ( and maybe the more morbid aspects) and all that goes with these things.

Im a little reassured by it. Which helps !

1 minute ago, leighavfc said:

Worrying, I've heard a few people say similar. I work for the family business (small manufacturing company). Fortunately bar me, my mom and dad we only employ one other person as the rest is done by machinery. We have had a massively bumper year so far and are not concerned as yet as we supply across many industries and have still got plenty of orders coming in. Many of our customers as of yet have not had or seeing problems yet either, but we will be keeping constant tabs on this to be on the safe side. Of course all this can change very quickly.

Really do feel worry for those who will get this virus and be losing jobs. Very very testing times ahead for many. Again I just hope the plan of action works somehow.......

I would say that the whole world is going to ‘drop’...so there will a big stimulus similar to those which followed ww2 after (?) this calms down. There will be a lot more coming in the way of income supplements in the short and medium term....there’s no way that every country can just write off so many people’s incomes. So there will be difficulties, some very hard, but this aspect won’t be allowed to get as bad as it currently looks, in my view. 

Just now, markavfc40 said:

Telling over 70's to stay in makes perfect sense. Good to see they will requisition private hospitals and be using hotels as temporary hospitals. Hopefully these actions will be confirmed soon.

I’ve been given no facts whatsoever but I’ve family in the forces and they’ve told me there is a lot of preparation of this nature and similar going on. Lots of extra training to.

1 hour ago, bickster said:

Well hello my two closest supermarkets. There's a Tesco too but I've refused to shop in there for over two decades over a maggots in my mince episode

Tesco been skimping on the maggots AGAIN ?

52 minutes ago, Awol said:

Would love to know how you pulled that off. Got my Mum (early 70’s with COPD) squared away easily enough several weeks ago. Problem is she lives with my sister, a pub landlady just coming out of a 5 yr battle with leukaemia and determined to push through the outbreak like it’s not happening. 

Pointed out the logical flaw in this plan which caused a massive row, now I’m the bad guy - because feelings. 

They’re driving me up the wall, my sister flat out refuses to see reason and she could kill them both through pure pig-headedness. 

I sympathise, genuinely. It’s not been easy, even just from the point of view of knowing that to convince some I had to actually end up exposing them to stuff they’d rather not hear. 
 

Wierdly the wife was one of the hardest, I think because she’s so concerned about me and her mom she had gone down the denial route. 

Got there in the end with all of them, though one daughter ( with three kids) is still borderline in her concerns, she is doing all we have asked.

Having done it, they’ve thanked me for it, now I want to forget it !

I experienced a few rows too....hopefully as mine did yours will see you mean well. Then, sometime later, they will see you were right with their own eyes..good luck.

I’ve been on it for two weeks.

Digested CNN, read all the research, the lot. Chose the time for family info...got the doubters on board. Everyone knows what to do.

With luck, warm weather, and the self care many  people are taking we might keep it on the best case side.

The panic buying will pass as supplies reappear, some rationing is brought in, and people get over the shock. There is lots of evidence from many past traumatic events in many places to suggest on the whole a disciplined calm will set in at some point.

As people get sick, then well, there will be a growing immune population to help out.

Its deadly serious, but not the plague.

Ive 2 kids and a Son In Law in the forces. There’s a lot of preparations underway to alleviate the problems. ( I’ve no idea what).

Italy doesn’t have to be typical.

Im now moving into “ good mental health” stage.....there’s nothing more to be achieved, and constantly reading and looking at the topic can no longer add anything beneficial.  I hope in time most feel that way and speculation and extreme cases get less ‘unnecessary’ circulation.

So that’s me done with news, newspapers, the lot. I’ll keep VT open, but I’ll read very little now. I post this on the off chance it might help one person formulate their thinking. Sorry I’ve gone on. Good luck All

9 hours ago, markavfc40 said:

From today I am going to put my mom into isolation for however long it takes. She is 75 no underlying health conditions but I feel it is not worth the risk of her still going out and interacting with anyone other than me, my wife and eldest daughter who will ensure we don't come into close contact with her and get anything on surfaces in her house etc. Anyone else already doing this with elderly relatives or those with underlying health conditions?

 

Yup.

Done it for myself and for the Mother In Law ( we’ve only 1 surviving parent between 2 of us).

Im going nowhere. She will walk in her local park, that’s all.

Same for both houses..

Systems in place for deliveries, packages, food packaging. Procedure for showering and changing after going out.....only other close family allowed in....they’ve all got the idea re what to do on arrival.

Whole house been disinfected, First Aid kits checked, candles etc.

Mobile phone ‘ policy’....they are germ collectors so need to be treated carefully.

Just in case. It’ll soon be second nature, and hopefully soon become redundant. But worth being a bit excessive rather than regrets later.

Good luck Mark

5 hours ago, Kingman said:

Never thought of starting 19 players before 

You know El and Ghazi is just one guy yes ?

( it’s 18)........

2 minutes ago, Awol said:

The fact China is now trying to blame the US military for the outbreak is chutzpah on another level. 

The people of the UK as a whole are pretty much amazing in a crisis, whatever generation it strikes. Local community groups are self-organising to mitigate the effects, & advertising that help all over social media. 

Our governments’ may be toilet, but don’t ever let any word removed tell you the people of this country aren’t fricking amazing.  

I love ‘em, even the scousers.

 

To be fair Trumps throwing blame around, they all will. I’d prefer to ignore the politics. 

I share your views of the “ common folk” though ( except the scousers ).....but I don’t think it’s just people of the UK. We are genuinely all in it together, all suffering together, all hoping together, all with our share of heroes and villains. 

1 hour ago, mjmooney said:

Some people who've been tested positive saying "Yeah, I felt shit for a few days, but I'm better now". 

But ISTR reports that this is usually a 'false dawn', and it comes back at you a few days later, in much more severe form. 

I hope you don’t mind me mentioning but could you post a link for stuff like this...?

i don’t even know who they are .there’s so much out there it’s important to read what’s been said and by who