terrytini

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/03/11/in-china-the-worst-could-be-over/#6d3195c74ee4

Quote

 

“Throughout the entire nation of China, which has 1.42 billion people, there are roughly 16,300 cases left, based on data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
 

That’s 0.001% of the Chinese population who are known carriers of the disease.

After three and a half months, of which one month was spent ignoring the disease entirely, China is healing.”

It’s good that we are all taking this extremely seriously, and that the Government finally seems to be waking up.

But see the above article ( I’m not good with fonts so it was all coming out wrong so I’ve put my associated comment here, I though5 it worth it to get the article seen).

Its just as vital to keep a sense of perspective. 
 

Of course China coukd go backwards etc......of course other places could be as bad as feared. 
But it’s not set in stone

1 hour ago, maqroll said:

WHO saying some people who have recovered have up to 30% diminished lung capacity

Not as scary as it sounds.

The little I know having suffered a Pulmonary Embollism which collapsed part of my lung....

Many people once they are 50 and above will have undergone a 50 % reduction in lung capacity.

Indeed our lungs are very cleverly designed - even an athlete in a race will only use 70% lung capacity.

Thats all I know - onto guesswork .... I’d imagine if someone WITH severely reduced lung capacity lost an EXTRA 30% that could be more significant, which takes us back to pre existing conditions.

Just now, Kingman said:

An NHS consultant speaking on Sky News just now said that 70 to 75 year olds have a 15% chance of dying if they contract the virus. 

Which is correct based on the current data...BUT.....the great majority of those in that age group who have died are reported to have had severe existing illness, particularly cardio and respiratory.

So it’s bad if you are old,  but it’s better if you aren’t ill.

18 minutes ago, sne said:

WTF is going on in Italy?

More than 15000 infected but even more worrying the number of recoveries is only slightly higher than the number of dead.

More than 1000 dead in Italy and only about 1000 recoveries.

There isn’t enough data to be sure but the most likely explanation I’ve seen so far is the high average age of those infected.

1 minute ago, maqroll said:

CDC in America projects that as many as 1.7 million people will die here.

Might

27 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

To be honest, whether wilfully allowing or not you can’t really stop people from congregating, this is where individuals need to step up and make personal choices for the better of all.

Agree which is why I said “ allowing needless large gatherings”. Whilst people will still go about their business it’s not likely that without the football 40, 000 people would’ve descended on Aston tomorrow.  Or indeed 3 or 4 people on Small Heath. Those large gatherings which are ( a) needless and (b) preventable, should be prevented.

22 minutes ago, sne said:

Wouldn't surprise me if there is a million people infected in China tbh.

They say they've stopped it but might as well just have stopped reporting stop people from panicking and to hold up the illusion of the party having control of things.

Obviously hope they have in fact stopped it.

I’m not sure I agree with the scepticism about China. Although I do agree they will have a million infected ( and probably many more). It has to be remembered though that “ infected” doesn’t mean “ seriously ill”. 

Of course they may play things down...all governments do, and will, and that’s probably just as well ( panic and fear are going to be just as much a danger as the virus) ....but they took massive action and I’ve no doubt they won’t want to undo the benefits of that, nor return to it. If they are saying they are working, they probably are in my view.

What woukdnt suprise me - is that they may be more ready to try unproven vaccines on selections of the population than we are. 
The calculation will be, “you are old, and sick, we can’t help you in hospital, try this “....something we couldn’t do here.

Additionally they will be very aware that it’s crucial not just to get back to work, but to do it sustainably. They know that the First Nation to “ get well” will have an unbelievable head start economically.

13 minutes ago, Chindie said:

The government's 'plan' is to let this hit the population, in the hope of forcing herd immunity naturally. To achieve that they basically want people to go about as they normally would.

The other side of the coin is they want to avoid doing anything that severely impacts the economy until they have to. Firstly just to keep the wheels turning for as long as possible, and secondly because they believe the measures to severely limit gatherings etc are time limited and that people won't stick to them for extended periods.

And couple that to the usual Tory bias of not getting government involved without clear force of need, relying instead on companies to do their own thing (which most companies won't until they have to, not least of which because a tonne of them would potentially be signing a death warrant)...

Because of all that, we're not getting any government mandated enforcement until there's absolutely no choice but to do so.

Agree.

But it’s basic incompetence at its root.....else why not given the kind of detailed advice I’ve briefly mentioned above, why not have, at the very least, local authorities who each are responsible for emergency planning, have control systems in place for visitors, particularly to care and health premises, but all over.

15 minutes ago, Kingman said:

My gut feeling is that the longer you can delay it, the better. It gives us a chance to a range of things, from manufacture more ventilators to testing on effective therapies to developing a vaccine.

All of this is going on now, no doubt, but the UK approach does seem a little fatalistic. It may prove right in hindsight, but if it doesn't then we are looking at possibly hundreds of thousands of avoidable deaths.

I guess what it comes down to is whether or not they think containing now will lead to a worse outcome if/when it resurges. It is hard to believe that it will. Either that, or they are putting the economy ahead of the populace.

Couldn’t agree more.

The virus is completely impotent without our help. You and I can’t get infected just by existing, it depends upon what we DO.

Therefore the very first step should be, don’t do anything you don’t NEED to do. On a personal level there’s a lot.
Do you open your mail/ parcels  ? Wash your hands (WH)  after.  ( evidence is unclear about the extent of transmission by objects...why take a chance ?)

Do you visit anybody, or anywhere, you don’t need to ? Stop it.

Have you nominated the most robust member of your family to do the shopping ? If not, why not ? In a bigger family have you combined elements of your shopping lists to limit who needs to go ?

Do you shop when the stores are emptiest ? Why not ?

When you get the shopping home, decant into your own, washed, food containers. Throw the packaging away. ( might not be necessary..who cares, why not do it ?)

Do you still kiss your kids, or partner ? Stop it. Have a hug. Maintain your safe distance from your own family inside your home as much as possible. Sit in the garden when you chat. Keep the windows open.Goes without saying when you get home, shower. Have separate towels. Outdoor clothes straight in the wash ( might not be needed, why take the risk ?).

Could go on all day.

Dont even get me started on what businesses should be doing.

Without our help the virus is powerless. Everything we do should pass a test....could this help the virus ? If so, is it essential. If so, what’s the safest way to do it.

Let’s remember another few things....

....whilst many will get ill, once they get better, as the majority will, those same people will almost certainly have immunity, and be a great help to those who’s illness is still to come, and in providing services.

.....whilst not downplaying the significance or horror of seeing cluster areas creating areas to bury the dead and so on, cluster areas shouldn’t be the norm. They are more akin to, for example, the location of a plane crash or similar. Not everywhere will be the same.

( based as ever on the current position which could change)...

....not every country that’s been hit has been hit the same as Italy....it isn’t guaranteed we will go that way...

So whilst I am appalled at the lack of basic precautions which should by now be widespread, we can, for now at least, maintain the hope that the worst might not happen.

9 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

I just had the shortness of breath which is why think it was something else. Who knows.
 

Millions of people could have it right?

In the “long“ (?) run yes, at present no.

2 minutes ago, Kingman said:

We are still planning to hold the St Patrick’s Day parade in London on Sunday - 50,000 plus people congregating on the streets together.

All the equivalent SPD events in Ireland and the US have been cancelled yet we are still going ahead with the London event as of now.

As you say what is going on here - why is our approach so different? 

It makes no sense. 
I can understand not placing draconian travel restrictions or enforced shut downs of businesses - for the time being.

But to wilfully allow needless large gatherings, when there is a highly contagious disease probably already widespread in the population is insane.

6 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

I had this on Monday.  it was like I was struggling to take a deep breath when yawning.

I put it down being unfit and playing football on Sunday and really struggling during that too.  By Tuesday morning I was fine.  I doubt it was coronavirus.

For anyone who doesn’t know the latest best available evidence is that the following symptoms show at the percentages given

Fever 90%

Dry cough 70%

Fatigue 40%

Sputum 33%

Shortness of breath 18%

Muscle pains 14%

Sore throat 13%

Headache 13%

Chills 11%

Nausea 5%

Nasal congestion 5%

The runs 3%

So whilst only a guide the more symptoms you have near the top the more possible it’s the virus, the more down the bottom the more likely it’s something else.

33 minutes ago, Kingman said:

This, In 2/3 weeks time we will be on now Italian figures and totally unchartered waters with health services becoming overwhelmed and having to make unthinkable decisions! 

In 3/4 weeks time everybody will know someone who knows someone thats been infected! 

In 5/6 weeks time you will know someone directly who has been infected!

In 7/8 weeks you will have most likely been infected yourself! 

This is now changing hourly, Look after yourselves and those around you. 

May God Help Us!..

This is true but, and terrifying.....but if anyone wants to try to find a “ better” way of seeing it..

In the best case scenario 16/100 people will get ‘just’ poorly.....3 will get very poorly, one of those seriously and possibly fatally, and these 3 will almost certainly have existing severe underlying health conditions. 80 will remain well.

In the worst case scenario 64 of every 100 people will get “ just” poorly..... 10 will get very poorly, 6 seriously so of which  1 or 2 will die. Again, those who get most ill will, for the main part , already be suffering a severe illness. 20 will remain well.

Im not saying that makes everything ok, and we are all going to be affected, and we will all have family members at high risk, but, for me, it helps keep my head okay to look at it this way rather than the other way.

No way on Earth there will be football this weekend. Thank goodness, sense being seen at last.

3 hours ago, colhint said:

But that's the worst case scenario.

Yes. Mark stated “ worst case” and gave that figure. 

41 minutes ago, colhint said:

I can''t find any report suggesting those numbers, That's pretty irresponsible posting stuff like that.

Those numbers are from widely available official figures.

It’s only relevant where there are crowds, so anyone not interested in football but who would like to see a game can go to St Andrews...

44 minutes ago, bickster said:

Mikel Arteta tested positive now, despite the PL saying games are going ahead, will there actually be any games played?

No.

If the Premier League didn’t exist.....and we were in the position we are now medically........how would the suggestion that we hold multiple gatherings of between 25-65000 people up and down the country be greeted ?

Quite.

1 hour ago, a m ole said:

Johnson’s logic re: sporting events is crazy.

Says that on average one person infects two or three others so you have low probability of infecting a large number of people in a stadium as you only infect people close to you.

That’s the whole point, stadiums bring you into very close contact with thousands of people and high volume contact points and massively increases the chance of infecting a higher number of people.

Seems pretty obvious doesn’t it. Car parks, trains, buses, queues for food, toilets........

14 minutes ago, NurembergVillan said:

 

Given that the science suggests breathing the same air as an infectious person is as risky as them coughing on you, ive made my own decision.....I suspect many others will vote with their feet aswell.

1 hour ago, Awol said:

So from that briefing is it fair to surmise isolation now is good from a medical perspective, but advice from “behavioural scientists” is that we can’t be trusted to keep that up for long enough?! Balls to that.

Talked with the long-haired General and decision made. Kids are out of school now until we decide it’s safe enough to send them back.

We don’t have to do what every petty bureaucrat or quack scientist tells us to. Use your own judgement, no one is going to apologise later if they’ve massively screwed this up. You are not subjects to be experimented on. 

Indeed.

It is of course possible that the Governments approach is the correct one.

But equally it’s possible that a Right Wing government would find immediate massive Health and  Care investment, the organising of community responses, and wage guarantees ( at meaningful levels) equivalent to eating Kryptonite.

And also equally possible that a Government full of idealouges, has beens, charlatans and the wealthy might be either incompetent, self serving, or both.

Like you, I am organising my family and making our own arrangements.

My career was all about installing diligence systems. I can’t begin to express how many things could be being implemented that we are hearing nothing of.

A simple example.

My wife works in a Care Home. I asked her what audit has been carried out on those making deliveries, friends and relatives visiting, and staff. Have they visited XYZ in the last month ? Has their family ? Many go to multiple Care Homes...And so on. A precautionary step, but also relevant when it comes to tracing time.

Answer. No. Nothing. Nothing at all. I asked have they at least asked all staff whether they’ve been on holiday to wherever. No. Nothing at all.

10 minutes ago, Enda said:

The “first come, first served” approach neglects that my 74 year-old mother with a bad hip can’t walk to 15 pharmacies.

Anyone who has read any John Wyndham knows where this is going, sadly.

3 hours ago, bickster said:

Government to issue medals... sorry, stickers to survivors

 

It had crossed my mind now would be a good time to get it. ....NHS not yet overwhelmed, get good quality care.....recover, then have ( hopefully) immunity .....be like Superman.

Which did lead me to wonder, has anyone considered paying those that have recovered to have a role in the coming weeks, shopping for at risk groups, helping out in Care or Health scenarios ? 
It’d be a growing army of helpers ?