Awol

Russia’s Ambassador to the EU back to blaming the UK, the “you did it to yourselves” defence. Apparently he missed the briefing from Craig Murray that the Iranians/Uzbeks/Mysterons were responsible.

Tsk. Who do they think they are? Driving around in a convertible like they own the place...

Holy shizzle, there is no precedent for a former CIA Director to address a sitting President like this. He clearly knows exactly what’s coming and when Meuller unloads it’s going to be an event without historical parallel. It might even end the Republican Party as we know it.

Supporting Ukraine against the Russian invaders of their country isn’t a difficult call. Ever read a history book? The Russians killed more Ukrainians than Hitler killed Jews, but they were never held to account for it & now they’re back. The shame of the West is that we’ve ignored it, just one of the reasons Putin believes he can act with impunity now.

Craig Murray has descended on twitter into the usual redoubt of the hard left and is blaming the Israelis. Quoting the guy as a credible source is like repeating the witterings of David Icke, imo. Meanwhile the Russian government has said Novichok doesn't exist, then said it might have been made by UK to kill Skripal, but in so acknowledging the agent does exist. We know it exists because the defector scientist Vil Mirzayanov who coined the term “Novichok agent” told us that he’d invented out and gave us the formulas. Then he wrote a book about it. The Russian embassy in UK acknowledged this by quoting an interview he gave stating he’d given us the formulas!! The OPCW has confirmed the Novichok family the Russian CW agents was never declared to them, putting Russia in breach of the treaty, so they held this back - illegally. This pattern of Russian behaviour is called disinformation, or ‘BS’ in Anglo-Saxon talk. At this point I really fail to see how people are engaging in this willful dissembling over what has happened. Finally why on earth should we start providing samples to Russia and engaging further in their charade? I’d much rather we supplied Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine so they can chew up the non-existent armoured vehicles of the non-existent Russian army that isn’t currently sat in the east of their country following a non-existent invasion. We know the Russian invasion never happened and those soldiers aren’t there because Putin said so, & the first rule of international relations is Putin isn’t a lying, murdering, gangster bastard who authorized the use of chemical weapons in the UK. It’s like living in a parallel universe sometimes.

Yep. Award winning stuff, I thought.

Yep, but to be fair negotiating with Trudeau would be like kicking a puppy around. Nice guy seemingly but wetter than the Atlantic. Bizarrely, given the self-immolation of the Republicans and now open goal for the Democrats, Hillary has been spouting that women who didn’t vote for her were influenced by husbands, male relatives or other unspecified rotters. Not a very helpful tone to take, imo.

Fair do’s, I’m avoiding a horrible essay... Mate I’ve been on the Brexit train since the Lisbon Treaty, if not a little before. If that’s delusional in your view then that’s cool, but I got there all by myself through reasoning, not brainwashing by the shower of excrement that led the Leave campaign. I don’t accept the premise that Brexit is good for Russia, there’s a strong argument for the opposite. The UK will focus more on strengthening NATO, while simultaneously removing the barrier we had become to much greater EU integration as they drive on to their superstate.

Funny thing, you edited out all of the really good bits of the response May should have made and left in the one bit she couldn’t! Cancelling or indefinitely postponing Brexit (no way the EU would wear the latter) would cause chaos in the public square and in politics - by ending her Premiership and bringing down the government. I think the author was making great points right up until he let his own prejudices/desires cloud his analysis.

That was the argument advanced for why Litvinenko was targeted, but even assuming that was true of Skripal (seen nothing to suggest it is/was), there are ways of going about it. This looks much more like strategic communication saying different things to different audiences. The protocol, such as it is, appears to be that those people involved in swaps are subsequently left alone by the other side. It’s really not common for countries to bump off each other’s spies, for obvious reasons of reprisal/reciprocation. There’s some interesting open source analysis online about ‘Reflexive Control theory’ as developed by the Russians. Not just propaganda (or info’ ops in the modern lingo), but guiding an opponent down an already thought through path to a desired end state by tailoring an event to illicit those responses - then introducing certain stimuli to prod them along. Basically engaging in conflict using means other than war to achieve a goal/end state. Some analysis of the US election interference cites it as a classic example of this, whereby it’s not about who gets into the Whitehouse, it’s about putting the opponent in a cognitive box and keeping them there. The election interference wasn’t the operation, it’s the box within which to trap the opponent - and the operation is ongoing. Worth considering whether Salisbury is a similar play, what reaction it’s supposed to illicit and what the other side’s desired end state is.

This one seems to have legs. If it happens then very likely the Iran deal gets canned. Also don’t know if it’s been mentioned previously but the New Yorker article on Christopher Steele and the Trump Dossier is incredible journalism. Well worth a read.

#MeToo but the difference seems to be Iraq was about believing in the existence or a WMD programme without firm evidence, whereas in Salisbury the evidence is lying in a hospital bed.

UK has shared the intelligence with Germany & France satisfying them of Russia’s responsibility for this act. Neither country has an interest in escalating tensions with Russia by standing with the UK, but they are. Trump has appeared to favour Putin so heavily he’s regularly referred to as the Manchurian Candidate. Yet, UK shared the intelligence from Salisbury and the US has now fallen in behind the UK position. The Russian backstory and penchant for murdering people who cross them is well known, this poisoning fits their MO. Their general response to the story through domestic media basically boils down to a schizophrenic combination of “the Brit’s did it” and “yeah, so what?” Aside from a few er, eccentric characters like Craig Murray & Jeremy Corbyn their doesn’t seem to be much argument over what’s happened. I’m struggling to understand the reluctance to acknowledge the obvious, unless the paradigm is “Western colonial oppressors = bad, Anti-Western forces = good.” Is that what’s all about?

First use of a nerve agent in Europe since the Second World War... again, I’m fine with ‘huge’.

Germany is massively dependent on Russian gas, we’re not. It’s true they’ve been using London as a giant washing machine, question now is whether national security interests will override narrow financial interests. In normal circumstances that’s depressingly easy to answer. These are not normal circumstances, so we’ll see what happens.

Seems to be a trail of military-grade, Russian produced nerve agent half way around the centre of Salisbury. I’m fine with calling it a chemical weapons attack & am very suspicious of people trying to brush it off as no big deal. It’s huge.

I’m not expecting much practical support from other countries, Merkel blocked a unified EU response to the Litvinenko murder when we were still paid up groupies of Brussels & Trump appears to be hopelessly compromised. Even so I do think we will react to this. Targeted sanctions, diplomatic expulsions and asset freezes are a no-brainier but I have a feeling it’ll go further - probably something cyber related. Putin is trying to humiliate the UK & even a PM as weak as May will be forced to react or she’ll be ex-PM May in short order. HMG cannot let a chemical weapons attack on UK soil slide, it’s just too big to ignore.* *Standing by for her to collapse like a wet paper bag and prove me completely wrong...

Oofff!

‘Faaaamily’. He’d get mugged off by Billy Mitchell. Seed.

On your first para: Travel is not immigration. I expect visa free travel between the UK and 27 so people can simply fly into Heathrow, rather than leopard crawling through the fields of South Armagh. It’s the automatic right to work that is the control mechanism, anyone visiting any country can chose to overstay illegally if they wish.

Sorry, should I have said ‘provisional’ deal? Clearly the EU were satisfied in order to make ... “sufficient progress”. I appreciate that anything less than remaining in the EU will disappoint some people, particularly if they are living in the 27.

Thing is staying in the single market means no control over EU immigration and no influence over the making of laws we must obey. Basically become an EU colony which is the worst possible outcome and one not even Labour are pushing. Politically that’s a dead duck.

We’ve made a big show about wrangling over money, in effect simply fulfilling our moral obligation to pay out the existing commitments under the EU financial framework out to 2020. The deal on citizens is a good one and UK is committed to not establishing a hard border in Ireland - what the Irish do one their side is up to them. But... the money is conditional on UK getting what we want on trade and the 27 will now fight for their own national interests in the future relationship. Objectively we are in good shape to negotiate a good deal in phase 2, imo - however delusional you may think that is.

I think the broader point is those favouring Remain are still arguing on the basis of arguments (proven or not) that failed to carry the referendum - i.e. economic. The arguments that won the referendum were about political autonomy and control (whether one agreed with them or not). To turn Brexit around those are the arguments that need to be addressed and won by Remain, not refighting lost battles with the same failed strategy. In that sense Remain aren’t even on the pitch, imo.

500,000 extra unemployed vs record levels of employment. Recession vs growth. Collapse in FDI vs increased FDI, increased manufacturing levels, all ‘despite Brexit’. At best it’s too early to call the accuracy of project fear’s predictions of doom.