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leviramsey

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Blog Entries posted by leviramsey

  1. leviramsey
    YTD: 15-34, -127.44 units (-27.47%)

    Hull +2 +200: 10 units
    Norwich DNB +110: 8 units
    Evian DNB +110: 5 units
    Guingamp +2 -120: risk 8 units to win 6.66
    Hannover DNB +110: 5 units
    Hertha Berlin to win +280: 7 units

    Added picks for later will be in the comments...
  2. leviramsey

    Picks for 21 September

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 44-65, -127.68 units (-12.98%)

    Liverpool to win -170: risk 6 units to win 3.52
    Liverpool -1 +110: 6 units
    Hannover to win +155: 7 units
    Hannover DNB -115: risk 11 units to win 9.56
    Bayern Munich to win -181: risk 5 units to win 2.76
    Bayern Munich -1 -110: risk 5 units to win 4.54
    Udinese DNB -105: risk 5 units to win 4.76
    Maritimo DNB -135: risk 7 units to win 5.18
    Barcelona -2 -115: risk 5 units to win 4.34
  3. leviramsey

    Picks for 22 September

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 51-70, -102.53 units (-9.48%)

    Moncao +0.5 +115: 10 units
    Vitoria Guimaraes to win +550: 6 units
    Getafe +2.5 -103: risk 6 units to win 5.82
    Sevilla DNB +162: 5 units
    Trabzonspor to win +175: 8 units
    Zorya/Chornomorets Draw +230: 7 units
  4. leviramsey
    YTD: 14-28, -97.44 units (-23.32%)

    PSV to win +425: 6 units
    PSV +1 -135: risk 7 units to win 5.18
    Shakhter Karagandy to win +1000: 6 units
    Shakhter Karagandy +2 -145: risk 7 units to win 4.82
    Lyon DNB +190: 7 units
  5. leviramsey
    YTD: 13-23, -57.98 units (-15.72%)

    Fenerbahce to win +650: 8 units
    Fenerbahce +1.5 -135: risk 10 units to win 7.40
    Ludogorets to win +470: 9 units
    Ludogorets +1 -110: risk 8 units to win 7.27
    Dinamo Zagreb DNB -110: risk 5 units to win 4.54
    PAOK DNB +175: 9 units

    Betting on a number of sides with control of the ties to not put in more than a cursory effort...
  6. leviramsey
    YTD: 18-42, -160.64 units (-28.95%)

    Liverpool to win +140: 6 units
    Liverpool DNB -125: risk 11 units to win 8.80
    Roda +1 +130: 7 units
    Nacional to win +145: 6 units
    Nacional DNB -130: risk 9 units to win 6.92
    Rioa Ave DNB -180: risk 6 units to win 3.33
  7. leviramsey

    Picks for 24 September

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 53-74, -101.03 units (-8.99%)

    Spurs DNB -180: risk 8 units to win 4.44
    West Ham DNB -180: risk 7 units to win 3.88
    Evian +1 -115: risk 5 units to win 4.34
    Atletico Madrid to win -450: risk 9 units to win 2.00
    Atletico Madrid -2 +110: 8 units
    Real Sociedad +2.5 +100: 10 units
    Levante DNB -175: risk 13 units to win 7.42
  8. leviramsey

    Picks for 14 September

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 26-52, -174.91 units (-25.06%)

    Arsenal to win -145: risk 8 units to win 5.51
    Arsenal -1 +127: 7 units
    Chelsea DNB -150: risk 7 units to win 4.66
    Hannover +2.5 +110: 8 units
    Real Sociedad DNB -150: risk 8 units to win 5.33
  9. leviramsey
    Since I didn't want the football betting thread I started in "Other Football" to turn into a clone of Mister_Master's Portuguese league thread (i.e. a logn string of posts by me), I figured I'd move these posts to my blog here.

    I do post these picks on Google+, also.

    The picks in the linked thread went 7-12, +3.67 units (+2.03% of risk)

    Being that I'm from North America, I generally use North American notation, most notably in the form of moneyline pricing. Conversion of positive moneylines to decimals is easy (divide by 100 and add 1 (or add 100 and divide by 100...)), but this converter may prove handy.

    My basic philosophy is value, which generally means that I pick underdogs, especially when I'm getting the benefit of a handicap.

    On with the picks for 25 August!

    Genoa -0.5 +440: 8 units
    Genoa +1 -150: risk 9 units to win 6.00
    Cagliari -0.5 +145: 8 units
    Cagliari DNB -140: risk 9 units to win 6.42
    Chievo/Parma Draw +235: 6 units
    Chievo +0.5 -105: risk 6 units to win 5.71
    Udinese -0.5 +310: 10 units
    Udinese +0.5 -110: risk 8 units to win 7.27
    Gil Vicente +2 -120: risk 7 units to win 5.83
    Vitoria Guimaraes -0.5 +250: 8 units
    Vitoria Guimaraes DNB +165: 9 units
    Sevilla -0.5 +115: 10 units
    Sevilla DNB -170: risk 10 units to win 5.88
    Shakhtar Donetsk -0.5 -133: risk 7 units to win 5.26
    Chornomorets -0.5 -117: risk 9 units to win 7.69
  11. leviramsey
    YTD: 23-47, -158.96 units (-25.28%)

    Atromitos to win -175: risk 6 units to win 3.42
    Atromitos -1 +105: 6 units
    Platanias to win +215: 6 units
    Platanias DNB +130: 9 units
    Estoril to win -181: risk 5 units to win 2.76
    Estoril -1 +100: 5 units
  13. leviramsey
    For the past few years, I've endeavored to periodically post results of Monte Carlo simulations of the remainder of the season. The process is essentially analogous to repeatedly running the BBC predictor and seeing how often various events come up.
    I've decided that with the new site, it perhaps makes more sense to have this as a blog series rather than regular comments.
    5th0.1%6th0.1%7th0.2%8th0.3%9th0.6%10th0.8%11th1.3%12th2.2%13th3.4%14th5.2%15th7.4%^^^ upper quartile16th10.3%17th13.0%18th16.3% median19th18.1%vvv lower quartile20th20.7%By my reckoning, as things stand it's about 50/50 whether we finish between 19th and 16th, with above that range being about as likely as 20th.
    The table that came up most often in the simulation was:
    1. Man City2. Chelsea3. Leicester City4. Spurs5. Everton6. Man United7. Swansea8. Arsenal9. West Brom10. West Ham11. Southampton12. Watford13. Crystal Palace14. Stoke15. Norwich16. Bournemouth17. Liverpool18. Villa19. Newcastle20. SunderlandRelegation chances
    Sunderland 61.8%Newcastle 55.5%Villa 55.1%Liverpool 48.5%Bournemouth 33.6%Norwich 22.9%Stoke 11.1%Watford 3.0%Southampton, Crystal Palace 2.4%West Ham 1.3%Swansea 1.0%West Brom 0.6%Arsenal 0.4%Man Utd 0.3%Everton 0.1%
  14. leviramsey
    Has the bleeding stopped?
    9th 0.1% unchanged10th 0.1% unchanged11th 0.2% -0.1%12th 0.6% +0.1%13th 1.2% +0.2%14th 2.4% +0.8%15th 4.3% +1.5%16th 6.9% +1.9%17th 10.2% +1.3%^^^ upper quartile18th 14.8% -1.4%19th 22.3% -4.9% Medianvvv lower quartile20th 36.9% +0.6% Maximum likelihoodDespite the increased chance of finishing rock-bottom, our overall relegation chances decreased:
    Villa: 74.0% (-5.7%) Sunderland: 60.2% (-23.8%) Newcastle: 52.4% (+22.6%) Bournemouth: 40.0% (-15.0%) West Brom: 35.3% (+27.7%) Watford: 22.7% (+11.9%) Liverpool: 9.0% (-10.8%) Norwich: 3.7% (-0.3%) Stoke: 1.0% (+0.9%) Chelsea: 0.9% (+0.8%) West Ham: 0.5% (-0.3%) Swansea: 0.3% (-6.2%)
  15. leviramsey
    13th 0.1% -1.1% 14th 0.2% -2.2% 15th 0.4% -3.9% 16th 1.2% -5.7% 17th 3.5% -6.7% 18th 12.1% -2.7% ^^^ upper quartile 19th 30.0% +7.7% 20th 52.5% +15.6% Median, maximum likelihood Barring major change, I think we're nailed-on for rock-bottom.
    Aston Villa: 94.6% chance of relegation Sunderland: 90.8% Bournemouth: 68.2% Norwich: 16.7% Watford: 10.1% West Brom: 8.5% Liverpool: 7.5% Newcastle: 3.3% Swansea, Stoke: 0.1% Of course, it only takes one emphatic win to change the assessment, as Newcastle ably prove, but do we honestly see that sort of result coming from this incarnation of Villa?
  16. leviramsey
    The Monte Carlo results as of 30 October. The current results, Round 11, will follow in another post soon.
    15th 0.1% -0.3%16th 0.4% -0.8%17th 1.2% -2.3%18th 3.5% -8.6%19th 11.4% -18.6%20th 83.4% +30.9% Median, maximum likelihoodVilla: 98.3% Sunderland: 58.6% Bournemouth: 53.9% Newcastle: 41.5% Norwich: 25.7% Liverpool: 13.7% Watford: 3.5% WBA: 3.0% Chelsea: 1.1% Everton: 0.4% Swansea: 0.2% Stoke: 0.1%
  17. leviramsey
    It's not looking great at Villa Park, is it?
    9th0.1%10th0.1%11th0.3%12th0.5%13th1.0%14th1.6%15th2.8%16th5.0%17th8.9%^^^ upper quartile18th16.2%19th27.2%median, maximum likelihoodvvv lower quartile20th36.3%I suspect that this is the most pessimistic Monte Carlo run I've ever had; right after our loss to Hull last season, our relegation probability was only around 65%. The "maximum likelihood" refers to our finish in the table that came up the most often.
    Relegation chances:
    Sunderland: 84.0% Villa: 79.7% Bournemouth: 55.0% Newcastle: 29.8% Liverpool: 19.8% Watford: 10.8% West Brom: 7.6% Swansea: 6.5% Norwich: 4.0% Palace: 1.5% West Ham: 0.8% Stoke, Southampton, Everton, Chelsea, Arsenal: 0.1% This is the first run of the simulation with no results from last season.  Of course, last season, Leicester were projecting to a higher chance of going down than we currently project to, so...
  18. leviramsey
    These numbers assume no dramatic improvement in quality of play (including, for instance, tactics), nor any new manager bounce. Additionally, as can be seen in the recent yo-yoing of the Tyne & Wear clubs' chances, it only takes one sufficiently good result to cause things to look (at least for a time) a lot brighter.
    16th 0.1% -0.3%17th 0.3% -0.9%18th 2.1% -1.4%19th 10.8% -0.6%20th 86.7% +3.2% Median, maximum likelihoodVilla: 99.6% (+1.3%) Sunderland: 84.9% (+26.3%) Bournemouth: 67.7% (+12.8%) Norwich: 25.9% (+0.2%) Newcastle: 14.5% (-27.0%) WBA: 3.3% (+0.3%) Chelsea: 1.9% (+0.8%) Liverpool: 1.8% (-11.9%) Swansea: 0.5% (+0.3%)
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