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Captain Comeback Week 8: More Tricks than Treats

Cold, Hard Football Facts for November 01, 2011

By Scott Kacsmar

Cold, Hard Football Facts Trend Tracker

Defense has returned to the NFL. It took nearly half a season, but the blistering offensive pace at the start of the season has settled down into the more conventional type of production we’ve seen in the last few years.

That means another week with no 400-yard passers, and five quarterbacks went over 300. That also means comebacks are slowing down, with the exact same number of comebacks (2) as Week 7. There were four game-winning drives, and seven games featured a comeback opportunity.

Sunday was a day of unusual events, including the Ravens falling behind 24-3 to Arizona before making the largest comeback in their team’s history. It marked the 5th time this season a team came back from 20+ points down to win a game, already a single-season record.

In perhaps the upset of the season, the Saints went from a 62-7 rout of the winless Colts to a 24-0 deficit against the winless Rams. Even the winless Dolphins had a 14-3 lead over the Giants before losing in the fourth quarter. As for the Colts, well they’re still hopeless in Indianapolis.

The “practically midway point of the season” count:

Fourth quarter comebacks: 35

Game-winning drives: 40

Games with 4QC opportunity: 73/116 (62.9%)

10+ point comebacks (any point in the game): 23

20+ point comebacks (any point in the game): 5 (single-season record)

Drive of the Week

New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins

Winner: NY Giants (20-17)

Type: 4QC/GWD

Largest Deficit: 7 (17-10)

Quarterback: Eli Manning (17 4QC, 21 GWD – table)

They don’t run the ball well (85.6 yards/game - 30th in the league). They don’t stop the run well (130.1 yards/game – 28th in the league). They are 5-2, despite outscoring their opponents by just 10 points this season. Injuries have been piling up. They rely on their defensive line and the quarterback leading game-winning drives in the fourth quarter.

Since when did the New York Giants turn into the Indianapolis Colts?

As the only active Manning this season, Eli is off to the best start of his career. It’s the type of season that would have his brother Peyton in MVP consideration, which is what Eli deserves to this point. The Giants have not been a dominant team, but they keep finding ways to win, and Eli’s fourth quarters have been a big factor. His 119.4 passer rating in the fourth quarter is the highest in the league.

After getting Tebowned last week against Denver, the winless Dolphins didn’t look like a great challenge for the bye-week rested Giants, but as we learned with their loss to Seattle, you never know what you’re going to get.

The Dolphins were game enough to grab a 14-3 lead in the first half. They led 17-10 after three quarters, and that’s when Manning went to work. On the two fourth quarter scoring drives, he was 8/9 for 121 yards, including the 25-yard game-winning touchdown pass to Victor Cruz on a 3rd and 12.

It was Manning’s 11th game-winning touchdown pass of his career. The 45 pass attempts were the most he’s ever had in a win.

After the Giants failed to run much clock, the defense shut Miami down, forcing an interception on a desperate 4th-and-23 throw by Matt Moore. It secured Miami’s 10th straight loss dating back to last season. The Dolphins have scored more than 17 points in just two of their last 12 games (1-11 record).

The schedule now gets extremely tough for the Giants, starting with a trip to New England. The Giants will need Eli to keep up this type of production against the better opponents.

Eli Manning’s Fourth Quarter Wins: How many?

It was only two weeks ago when Tom Brady’s fourth quarter wins for the Patriots lapsed into the semantics mess. Now it’s Eli Manning and the Giants’ turn. Fittingly, these two teams will meet in Week 9.

Fans of the Giants (should) know Eli has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league in this area, but how many know exactly how many times he’s done it?

The Giants themselves actually aren’t doing that bad of a job here. In their weekly media releases they list Manning with 17 “Game-Winning Drives”, which they describe as “victories in which Manning rallied the Giants from a fourth-quarter deficit or tie to win.” That is the same kind of language the Patriots use in their guides, except the word “comeback” does not appear here.

On Twitter the Giants did in fact update the number to 18, and avoided the word “comeback” altogether. They also mentioned it was the fourth time Eli had done it this season, which is true.

All the Giants are doing is counting game-winning drives in the regular season, and they aren’t expressing otherwise. Of course the Patriots and several other teams include the playoffs for their quarterback’s total.

Eli became the only quarterback in NFL history to lead 3 game-winning drives in the same postseason in 2007, so they’re not doing their franchise quarterback any favors here by excluding them. Basically the Giants seem to follow the same methods the Colts use, which just happens to be the team Peyton Manning plays for.

The problem is in the interpretation of this data. People instantly want to convert that “from a fourth-quarter deficit or tie to win” into one word: comebacks. But we know they aren’t all comebacks, as winning a game after it was only tied (such as the winning drive against Buffalo two weeks ago) is not a comeback.

This leads to all kinds of reports of Eli having his 18th comeback, and his fourth comeback of the season. Start finding sources that would use Brady’s playoff wins to enhance his total, while keeping Eli’s to the regular season, and it’s about time for an aspirin to sort through it all.

You can get to 18 comebacks for Eli without even using the numbers from the Giants, which is what Ralph Vacchiano of the New York Daily News did. He included in his own personal list New York’s 2007 victory over the Buffalo Bills, a game in which Eli, down 21-17, fumbled on the first snap of the fourth quarter. Two plays later the Giants intercepted Trent Edwards for the go ahead touchdown. The Giants do not count this game, nor is it counted at pro-football-reference due to the lack of an offensive score.

“Many don’t count it,” Vacchiano said of including such a game. “It's not an official stat so there's no standard. I choose to count them all because [the] line is undefined.”

We know all too well about the unofficial nature of these stats, which is why standardization is so important if people are going to continue using them for these quarterbacks.

As always, the solution is simple: Eli Manning has 17 comebacks and 21 game-winning drives in his career. If you want to include the 2007 Bills game as a footnote, have at it. The work’s already been done.

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EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. -- New York Giants running back Ahmad Bradshaw has a cracked bone in his foot, a source told ESPNNewYork.com on Thursday.

A source told ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter that the injury is not considered serious and that Bradshaw "should play Sunday" against the Patriots. The source said that surgery will not be necessary, and coach Tom Coughlin said no decision has been made regarding the need for surgery at some point.

Week 9: Giants at Patriots

Big Blue is bound for Foxborough to face the Patriots. Giants Center » Blog »

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Asked if he could at least confim the broken foot, Coughlin said, "I really don't know anything more than what you've been told."

Coughlin also would not say if Bradshaw would try to play on Sunday. . He left open the possibility that Bradshaw would seek a second opinion on the injury.

"In the past he's played with a crack, or whatever you want to call it, a stress crack in his foot, he has played that way in the past," Coughlin said. "I don't know what the determination will be just yet. We will just have to wait and see ... what the doctors decide to do."

Coughlin noted that the players participating in practice will play Sunday.

"Well, he is not on the practice field," Coughlin said. "As long as he is not on the practice field, the guys that are out there will perform as if the responsibility will be theirs."

Bradshaw originally suffered the injury in the third quarter of the Giants' win over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. He returned to the game in the fourth quarter. X-rays after the game showed no structural damage and Bradshaw believed it was nothing serious.

"I got a screw in my right fifth metatarsal two Februarys ago and I think the head of it is just aggravated right now," Bradshaw said after Sunday's game. "I think it will be fine."

In the past, Bradshaw has been able to play on Sundays despite missing practice time during the week due to foot injuries. The fifth-year running back developed a crack in the fifth metatarsal bone of each foot in 2009 but played through the pain to rush for 778 yards in 15 games. He had offseason surgery to put a screw in each foot, as well as to repair bone spurs from his right ankle.

He returned in 2010 and ran for a career-high 1,235 yards and eight touchdowns.

If Bradshaw can't play in Sunday's game against New England, embattled back Brandon Jacobs will get the start.

Jacobs was booed last Sunday at home after running for just 10 yards on four carries. He dropped a pass and fumbled early in the game against the Dolphins, just days after complaining in a magazine article about his role on the Giants.

On Tuesday, Jacobs said the boos didn't bother him. He also believes fans will see a new Jacobs for the rest of the season, starting with the New England game.

"You're going to see a change, man. You're going to see a change," Jacobs said.

The running back believes that there is a chance that Bradshaw can play Sunday. "It may not be out of the question as far as I know. I just know he's done right now and that's it. I just hope everything heals up good and he gets back out here," Jacobs said.

Bradshaw's injury was first reported by the Newark Star-Ledger.

Ohm Youngmisuk covers the Giants for ESPNNewYori.com. Ian Begley is a frequent contributor to ESPNNewYork.com.

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Awesome!

Adam Schefter is reporting he still plays, i doubt it! Get the feeling Nicks might sit also and if thats the case we will find it very difficult. I mean its not like Brady has won 30+ at home in a row....... oh wait!

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Nicks, Bradshaw, Bass, Prince out. Barden and JPP will play though.

JPP and Prince news coming from Charley Casserly so not 100% official. Nicks, Bradshaw and Bass were all left home though.

No Bradshaw and Bass in the running game, over or under 60yards rushing this week? Im taking the under.

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Eli: A Giant among men.

It's eerie. Way too eerie.

Giants-Patriots, Super Bowl 42, fourth quarter, New England up 14-10, 1:15 to play, third and five, Giants' 44. Eli Manning, pressured, looks downfield for No. 85.

Giants-Patriots, Sunday in Foxboro, fourth quarter, New England up 20-17, 1:07 to play, third and 10, Giants' 39. Eli Manning, pressured, looks downfield for No. 85.

There's more.

Super Bowl 42: David Tyree hauls in the highly unlikely Velcro Catch with Rodney Harrison in close coverage. Gain of 32. First and 10 at the Patriots' 24. Fifty-nine seconds left, timeout Giants.

Sunday in Foxboro: Jake Ballard hauls in a one-handed catch, bending back with Tracy White in close coverage. Gain of 28. First and 10 at the Patriots' 33. Fifty-nine seconds left, clock running.

And more.

Super Bowl 42: Four plays after the drive-saving Tyree catch, Manning coolly finds Plaxico Burress in the left side of the end zone for a touchdown. Giants by three, with 35 seconds left.

Sunday in Foxboro: Four plays after the drive-saving Ballard catch, Manning coolly finds Ballard in the left side of the end zone for a touchdown. Giants by four, with 15 seconds left.

And finally ...

Super Bowl 42: After the Patriots return the kickoff 17 yards, Tom Brady throws three desperation passes to no avail. The Giants upset New England 17-14.

Sunday in Foxboro: After the Patriots return the kickoff 17 yards, Brady throws two desperation passes to no avail. The Giants upset New England 24-20.

"It's hard not to think about it,'' Manning told me from the locker room, after his biggest victory, all things considered, since that Super Bowl. "But in a way, before then, it was the complete opposite. Last time, it was the Patriots giving us the ball with three minutes left, up four. Today, after we took the four-point lead with three minutes to go, we're handing the ball to Tom Brady. And that's not a very good feeling.''

He's right. Four seasons ago, Brady threw a touchdown pass to Randy Moss with 2:45 left to give New England a four-point lead. And Sunday, Manning threw a touchdown pass to Mario Manningham with 3:07 remaining to give the Giants a four-point lead.

What made this Giant drive so interesting -- and, in some ways, tougher for Manning -- is that it came on the road instead of a neutral field, with noise and some of his mainstays out, hurt. Two guys Manning never heard of 20 months ago, Victor Cruz and Ballard, were his go-to receivers on this drive. And to go to Ballard twice ... it shows not only how undervalued the 6-6, 275-pound Ballard was coming out of Ohio State after being a blocking tight end and going undrafted, but also how adaptable and user-friendly the excuse-free Manning is.

The way he managed his receivers on this drive, and the comfort he showed with all of them, shows why Manning is such a terrific player (and why, wherever he watched the game Sunday, the GM who dealt for him, Ernie Accorsi, had to be nodding knowingly at his cool demeanor and laser accuracy) and why it surprised no one with the Giants that he was seven of 11 with two touchdown passes in the last seven minutes of the game.

On the throw to Ballard, Manning said it was a simple seam route and Ballard got over the linebacker, White, and he thought there was a tiny window to make the throw. What he didn't see was Patriot safety Patrick Chung charging into the play almost the way Harrison did four years ago. The ball was high, a smidge to Ballard's left, and he had to reach for it awkwardly, bringing it in with one hand to the other. A great catch. Not a Tyree catch, but what is?

"Huge,'' Manning said. "Jake's got great hands. He made a great catch there.''

Four plays later, at the Patriot one, the Giants had a third-and-goal. No timeouts left and 19 seconds to play. "You almost have to throw it there,'' Manning said. "If you run, and you don't make it, then you run your field goal unit on the field while you're unpiling, and it's chaos. Their guys laying on our guys, untangling the pile. You might not get the field goal off. So you've got to throw.''

"You audible?'' I asked. "Or was it the called play you ran?''

"No audible,'' he said. "Just a play-action, off the run. We sold it, and I saw Jake with a step on his guy.''

Not to dramatize the throw, but FOX had a camera in the corner of the end zone focused on Manning's throw. There was no wavering. In the Super Bowl, he had to place the ball deftly over a New England corner into Burress' hands. Here, Manning had to rip it, and he did. It was a perfect dart.

Manning is not his brother, the precision player and the prototype. But I believe Eli is a better clutch player than Peyton. No knock on Peyton. But look at the moments Eli's had. His 2007 postseason is one of the best any quarterback has ever played, winning three on the road (including beating Favre at Lambeau in minus-18 weather) and then upsetting the 18-0 Patriots in the Super Bowl. And Sunday, with 80- and 85-yard drives in the final seven minutes to beat Bill Belichick and Brady.

They don't make many like Eli Manning, and if you're a Giants' partisan, you've got to be thrilled he's yours.

MMQB

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Jake Ballard: 23 receptions, 395 yards, 17.2 average and 3 TEs

Kevin Boss, Marcedes Lewis and Zach Miller - COMBINED: 34 receptions, 433 yards, 12.7 average 1 TD

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Coughlin named coach NFL players least want to play for

With half the season finished, Sporting News’ network of correspondents asked 111 players from 31 teams everything you want to know about what has happened—and will happen—in the 2011 season.

As always in our midseason poll, players were not allowed to name their team, teammates or head coach for any of their answers.

Which coach would you least like to play for?

Tom Coughlin, New York Giants—22

Tony Sparano, Miami Dolphins—21

Bill Belichick, New England Patriots—15

Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks—6

Todd Haley, Kansas City Chiefs—5

Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers—5

Rex Ryan, New York Jets—5

Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions—4

John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens—2

Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals—2

Mike Shanahan, Washington Redskins—2

12 coaches received one vote

“Coughlin is that old school, Bill Parcells, my way or the highway type. He won’t bend at all. That’s not the kind of coach you’d like to play for.”—Bears DT Anthony Adams

“Looking at it from the outside, I don’t know that any player in the league would say they’d want to play for Tom Coughlin. I wouldn’t.”—NFC defensive player

“Tony Sparano. They’re not winning, things aren’t going very well down there. It doesn’t look like they can turn it around. It’s just not a very good situation, not the kind of thing people like to be a part of.”—Bears CB Tim Jennings

“Bill Belichick. People speak bad of him. He's just a different type of coach. He's not understanding. He's not a players' coach."—NFC defensive player

A lot of Parcells/Belichick guys on that list: Coughlin, Sparano, Belichick, and Schwartz....

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Shows how a lot of the players are just fat lazy slobs there to cash a cheque. Especially Anthony Adams who has precisely 0 Super Bowl rings, 0 Pro Bowl appearances and is most renowned for

during pre game.

Apparently he is worthy of quoting when asked who he would and wouldn't like to play for though!

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