Mandy Lifeboats

By the way. If I am wrong and there is a massive nuclear strike on the UK. I'll buy everyone a 2023/24 Season Ticket.

Read this if you are worried about nukes. During the late 80s and early 90s I was part of the Civil Defence. At the first hint of war I had a place at the now demolished shelter in Harborne. It was in Rose Avenue?? Rose Road?? My role was to monitor reports coming in from various places and try to work out what had hit the UK and what it meant in terms of damage, casualties and forthcoming dangers. During my time I took part in many exercises simulating a nuclear attack on the UK. Contrary to what you see from Hollywood, a nuclear war would nor wipe out humanity. The UK is a tiny island with a large population. We would be devastated. But we'd still have a million or two survivors. Other countries would fare much better than us. If Russia launched an attack they would not be able to destroy the military capabilities of all the countries that would now be attacking them. Especially when they would have been devastated. The side that strikes first has a massive disadvantage. China has always said that they would retaliate regardless of where that nuke was fired. Then there is the possibility that your attack will fail. A % of your weapons will fail to launch. A % of you weapons will fail to detonate. A % of your weapons will be intercepted. A % of your weapons will stray wildly off target. Striking first ensures guarantees that WW3 is you versus a very angry rest of the world team. A nuclear strike requires preparation. You need to prepare the attack and your defences. All of those preparations are noticeable to you enemy. Warheads require maintenance. Missiles need refueling. Weapons are moved from storage to operational readiness. This period is very dangerous for you. The enemy might decide to strike with conventional weapons and destroy your weapons on the ground. The UK has a very good intelligence network. If we thought a nuclear war was likely you would see preparations. Assets and resources would be spread across the country. Underground spaces would be kitted out. Key people would disappear from public view. Firefighting equipment would come out of storage. Prisons would be emptied. The public would be asked to limit travel. And much, much more. NOTHING I see happening today suggests we are in danger or that danger is on the horizon. Absolutely nothing.

Calm. Breathe. A missile accidentally falling on Poland isn't likely to cause intervention by NATO land forces, let alone WW3 or nuclear war. Let's assess the sides for this World War. Russia, Belarus and Iran v NATO isn't a world war. Its a walkover. China isn't stupid. Why would they ally with the remnants of Russia's Army? They would effectively be fighting NATO alone. China has been very clear that they will not tolerate the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Russia isn't going to destroy itself to keep hold of land they stole less than 10 year ago. Nuclear war does not just happen. They are prepared and those preparations are monitored. An all out first strike has huge disadvantages. This accident will lead to consequences for Russia. There are a few hundred more steps between here and WW3.

One of the missiles intended for Ukraine has landed in Poland killing 2 people. NATO has just received its justification to enter Ukrainian airspace to prevent it happening again.

Ukraine said it wouldn't use NATO supplied weapons to strike into Russia. They have the capability to do so with other methods. But not to a significant level. But this tactic is exactly what Hitler did and was one of the main reasons for his downfall. Hitler used a limited supply of missiles to bombard London. They killed lots of civilians but did nothing to erode our ability to fight. Every missile used to blow up terraced houses in London was a missile that wasn't hitting the naval dockyards in Portsmouth. Ukraine should stick to the plan. Hit the Russian military and strategic targets like oil refineries, bridges and railways.

At Stalingrad the Red Army had their backs to the Volga. They held out for 5 months in some of the most brutal fighting seen during WW2. The Nazis never got a significant foothold on the east bank of the Volga and were eventually outflanked. The defence of Kherson is an embarrassment.

Russian authorities in Kherson have stated that there are not and never will be any Ukrainian forces on the Eastern Bank. Great news.

Things just keep getting worse for Putin. China and France have reiterated that they would not tolerate the use of nukes in Ukraine. Putin is running out of options.

Russia must have used some of its best troops to cover the withdrawal. I wonder if these guys crossed the river running for their lives and just kept on running? That caused the conscripts in the defensive positions to do the same? It's all very odd.

I think some of the attacks on the southern coastal towns are a diversion. But as @bickster says - nothing is making sense at the moment. Russia seems to have left areas on the East Bank completely undefended. The river is the best possible defensive line for Russia. Why abandon it?

A very rough translation of a recent tweet. Project 773 ship "Yuriy Olefirenko" having landed the landing force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Kinburn spit, demonstrated to the world that the Russian fleet will be a dick. The ship is named in honor of Yury Olefirenko - the commander of the 73rd TsSO, who died in 2015 near Mariupol.

Its definitely all rumours at the moment. There seems to be numerous settlements on the coast that are under attack. It could be HIMARS, Special forces, Partisans or a combination of those. There's plenty of tweets from Ukrainians in those areas suggesting there are boots on the ground. Let's hope some of it is true. If it is.......Ukraine is trying to control the area south of Kherson with attacks from the North, South and West.

Russian propagandist Anatoly Shariy.

Absolutely.

More reports from Russian sources that Ukraine is fighting for control of more costal cities.

Reports that Ukraine is fighting for control of Skadovsk!!!!!!!!!

This is truly amazing. I thought the fall of Kherson was a trap. I am now thinking that the further advances must be a trap. But if its not - the Russian military is either spent or is actively refusing orders. Wow.

Your duty free allowance on "other goods" is only £390. I'd be surprised if you managed to get hold of a Rolex that will turn you a massive profit. That isn't how the watch market works. You might get something like an Omega Seamaster. But they rarely sell above RRP. If you find an Omega Speedmaster Silver Snoopy 25th Anniversary - I'll give you £1000 above RRP.

Your suggestion how to avoid import duty is illegal and it would be against forum rules to discuss. So I will not. Import duty is not a simple subject. You need to check it out thoroughly. In my opinion, your duty free allowance is set at a value much lower than a Rolex. You cou,d sell it on ebay. EBay offer a service where your watch can be verified as genuine before the cash is released to you. Or just go to any independent jeweller and ask them to sell it on commission. List it on Chrono24. Offer it to any shop that retails watches. A few months ago I went abroad for the first time since the UK left the EU. I found an Omega dealer selling watches about 15% below value. They assured me that it was free of any Import Duty. I checked with HMRC who replied the following day. It did attract import duty. It was 20%. Suddenly it wasn't a bargain. Had I tried to import it illegally I risked having to pay 5% over the retail value AND getting on a list that guaranteed I would be pulled by customs in future.

Why? If they did it without consulting other NATO countries, it risked the end of NATO. If they did it after consulting other NATO countries, why keep it a secret? Why blow it up in International waters instead of just breaking the land connections?

The Nord Stream 1 & 2 attacks made little sense to me. Both sides could have lost much more than they could ever hope to gain. But a work colleague has a theory that seems to make sense. US were training Ukrainian Special Forces to attack undersea pipelines. Part of this training took place around the Nord Stream pipelines in international waters. The US did the training outside territorial waters so that they did not have to inform any other country of the training or implicate them. But they did not notify the Nord Stream owners for obvious reasons. Russia became aware of the training and told the US to cease. US deny any training had taken place. Russia could prove the training took place and took the opportunity to blow the pipelines where the training took place. They also had numerous historical evidence of the USA opposing Nord Stream and threatening to take it out. This explains several things. The US planes and ships were in those areas in the weeks leading up to the attacks because they were conducting the training. Russia has evidence that shows US/UK activity related to attacking undersea pipelines. Germany is angry that “their” pipeline was used for the training but cannot publicly denounce the US. The “Thank You USA” tweet wasn’t accusing the USA of undertaking the operation. It was for giving Russia an opportunity to stage the attack and blame others.

Nothing is a risk free investment. Not all Rolex shoot up in value. Search for the exact model on chrono24.com to see what the going rate is. Selling is easy. Remember to check if you need to pay import tax. Its likely that you will. Some people will tell you to just wear it through Customs and they cannot prove you didn’t take it out with you. This is rubbish. They can hold the watch until YOU prove you have paid the duty. If you can't then they keep it. They can also tell by the Serial Numbers where the watch was sourced from.

This seems a logical tactic. Take any opportunity to go across the river and occupy land. If Russia responds you withdraw across the river whilst artillery covers you retreat. This gives Russia a no win situation. They can't ignore it. But if they respond they will take losses.

It seems counter intuitive but all of these incidents suggest massive failures and an inevitable reduction in Russia's ability to gather intelligence. Succesful intelligence gathering should be covert.