JPAngel

12 minutes ago, rubberman said:

Crazy to say it, but that looks very pessimistic! Whichever way you look at it I can't see us getting 7 draws - it's not how we are set up. If you extrapolate season to date to the remaining 22, you get W15, D3 and L4, so 83 points. If you look at his entire time with us you still get W14, D3 and L5 for 80 points. And just for completeness, using just last season (which is kind of like-for-like timeframe), W13, D4 , L5 - 78 points. I'm sure someone has a spreadsheet to compare the remaining fixture points vs what we got last season, but I'd be surprised if it gave much of a different picture. 

Maybe injuries, europe/tiredness will come to bite us in the latter stages of the season, but while Newcastle/Spurs are already looking leggy, we're looking brilliantly managed so far. And maybe expectations are getting too high, but to finish mid-60's would be a pretty big drop-off from here.

Yep! I had the same thought process as you but, as 83 points and 78 points both feel like a crazy number to achieve, I tempered my expectations so I didn't get carried away. For context, over the same period (2009/2010 - 2022/2023), the total point averages are:

2nd - 82
3rd - 73
4th - 71
5th - 67

3rd place total points averages are pretty consistent but there's a pretty huge swing when it comes to 2nd place. Examples being 92 points required in 2022 and 97 required in 2019 but only 71 points required in 2016 and 2011.

Whichever way you look at it, we're 100% on course to finish in the top 5 even with a pessimistic prediction of our remaining fixtures.

I'm not sure if this is any good to anyone but I'm far too excited about the prospect of getting into the Champions League and I needed an outlet.

I checked back over the last 10 or so years to get total point averages for finishing 4th and 5th (with 5th seeming likely to obtain CL football next year) to see where our current trajectory stacks up. On the chart below, the X axis is games played and the Y axis is points accrued.

As you can see, our current points total has us above where we need to be to reach the CL by around 5 points. Sometimes it's good to see things in the cold light of a spreadsheet!

For fun, I took a stab at predictions for the rest of the season. I know it's a fools errand but I wanted to see where we'd end up with some very conservative predictions and it puts us right in the middle of the average points for 4th and 5th. For context, I've not been wild with my estimates and have called the remaining games as: W:9, D:7, L:6. Crazy to think that winning just 9 of the remaining 22 matches (along with 7 draws) would see us amass a total of 69 points which would almost certainly be enough for 5th.

Our fans in the ground have definitely grown and embraced the way Emery plays and those rumbles of nervousness when playing around the back seem to have dissipated massively which is great. That nervousness within the crowd definitely makes it's way onto the pitch and doesn't help the team.

My only gripe with some fans, and this may just be me, is screaming at certain players the first time they do something "wrong". I sat by the touchline a few weeks back and a few lads in particular were absolutely battering Bailey with insults about his work rate and I just can't imagine how that could be helpful to anyone. This, coupled with brain dead comments like "switch on!", "wake up Villa!", and "get it forward!" always annoy me.

At 34, this is the best I've ever felt about a Villa team and, while no team is beyond criticism, I'd love it if more fans could just enjoy the moment without hammering certain players like we're back in the Remi Garde era.

The high line will end up being the reason we don't earn a lot of clean sheets this season and there will be teams (see: Newcastle and Liverpool) that have the right players to dismantle it. These are the games where we'll ship goals and "experts" will tear the us to shreds.

However, it will also be a major factor in the vast majority of wins this season as we catch teams offside, compress the pitch and break through teams at incredible speed resulting in scoring a boat load. These are the games where the same "experts" won't even mention the high line as they focus on the individual performances of our forwards.

In short, pundits haven't got a damn clue on what to focus on. It's dangerous but ultimately incredibly exciting and has resulted in our most successful period in years. Enjoy the ride.

7 minutes ago, gwi1890 said:

Not in the Spain squad, needs to play regularly this might change his mind about staying at Barcelona.

Seeing this thread pop up to the top of the list got me so excited. Why would you do this to us on deadline day?

Matheus Nunes with one final parting shot at Wolves in his City interview:

"It's a dream come true, I've always wanted to play for a big club in England." Ouch.

Man City have agreed their deal for Nunes, then. I'm very intrigued to see how they as a club react to this...

1 minute ago, duke313 said:

He joined Sevilla the season after Emery left

Aye, I've just edited my response. Who feeds these guys this stuff 

9 minutes ago, IrishVilla10 said:

Have we ever had a saga like this 

James Beattie, anyone?

This guy feels like a bit of a highlight reel player, to me.

I'm getting some real Allan Saint-Maximin vibes in that he's ocassionally utterly unplayable but is constantly injured so can never be relied upon for a sustained period. I love the idea of this being an internal leak to encourage a deal with Leverkusen for Diaby, however.

I like Diaby a lot but as far as I'm concerned, if he chooses money and goes to Saudi, he's not the kind of player/person we need at the club anyway.

Am I missing something with regard to his scout report? I think a common thread on VT is that people would like a designated defensive midfielder but, based on the below, Weston is not that man.

I think it's a decent top but it's basically further solidified the fact that I just can't get behind a shirt that has CAZOO written on it.

I know it's probably super petty, but it just looks like a bit of a joke. 

If JWP does leave Southampton I will honestly feel a little sorry for them. Losing Vestergaard, Ings and JWP would be identical to the summer we lost Vlaar, Benteke and Delph and we all know how that panned out.

Freakishly similar.

7 hours ago, Kiwivillan said:

There are 9 teams more favourite to go down in a 20 team league. Its basically last season's table. 11th out of 20 is not favourites to go down

By that same logic @alex7783, does that make Leeds among the favourites to win the league?

2 minutes ago, Jbvilla909 said:

I suspect he'll be a big player for us this season, midfield three for Watford (if he's fit) of Mcginn, Marv and Morgan

Correct me if I'm wrong but my biggest problem with this midfield three (or any other combo of Mcginn, Nakamba, Sanson, Luiz, Hourihane or a new DM) is that this effectively means that one of Watkins, Ings, Bailey or Buendia will have to be dropped to the bench.

Maybe my brain can't process all the talent we have on our books at the moment but as soon as we don't have a classic "Number 10", we would have to lose one of those four players. Unless we see Buendia as an 8 and I think that's unlikely (IMO).

7 hours ago, Rossco76 said:

By way of a reminder on what Sanson brings to the midfield...

 

I feel that our fanbase needs to see this video and other pieces on Sanson to realise how important he could actually be for us when he's at full fitness.

The stats on pressures and successful pressures alone mean that he could be super important to our midfield. In games where we're expected to be on the front foot and don't necessarily need constant protection in front of our back four, I feel the below could be one way we could set up to maximise our attacking threat.

While I admit there are concerns around defensive responsibility in the above, it does feel a little bit Harlem Globetrotters with all that attacking potential

While I think he'd be a top class signing, I just can't see Southampton selling him. I think it'd be suicide for them this season.

Hasenhuttl has already intimated that the money for Ings will likely be spent on two players so it's clear they're not in a position to spend big on replacements. Gems aside, we know how tricky it is to operate in that "£10m/£12m per player" bracket.

2 minutes ago, villalad21 said:

Hopefully all this happens

 

Cringe.

10 minutes ago, Made In Aston said:

How would people feel if we signed Zaha from Palace? 

We've just gotten rid of one player who sulks and throws his arms in the air when things don't go his way, let's not replace him with this guy.

36 minutes ago, It's Your Round said:

That’s fine with me LB10

Can't see him playing left back.

2 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

Another positive about Ings is he scores more goals than his xG so he's a quality finisher, scoring more goals than he's expected to from the chances he's had. 

We should get 3/4 good years out of him and he'll always be of use off bench or starting games. Will be interesting to see how he does in a better squad. 

How have you gone from "worst signing in the club's history" to this in 24 hours? Damn, I guess David O'Leary was right