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JPAngel

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  1. JPAngel

    Unai Emery

    JPAngel replied to PeterSw's topic in Villa Talk

    Note: I also added a drop shadow because it's very fashionable at the moment.
  2. JPAngel
    I'm not sure if it's just overexposure/oversaturation of so many badges in such a short space of time, combined with the desperation to FINALLY get this sorted, but I'm completely indifferent to the "new" badge now. I couldn't stand it previously but if this is it, so be it. I'll get over it, I guess.
  3. JPAngel
    Only a short update today but it's always nice to add another three points to our PPG tracker which now sees us on course to land 73/74 points. I could definitely see a world in which we get 8 points from our next 4 games in line with our projection but I'd be absolutely stunned if Spurs picked up 11. If they did, and we failed to pick up the points needed to overtake them (6), then they'd certainly be the more deserving team. It's going to be a hell of a run-in.
  4. JPAngel
  5. JPAngel
    We have a psychological edge in having the opportunity to get points on the board for the vast majority of the run in. I'll take points on the board over games in hand any day of the week. Spurs will constantly be trying to catch up with us if we do our jobs and we know how prone they are to bottling it in these situations.
  6. JPAngel
    People are arguing about whether it's better for us to finish in the top four of the Premier League or win a European trophy because, this close to the end of the season, both are still very much in our hands. Just imagine explaining this to our fanbase when we were in the midst of Steve Bruce bringing on Chris Samba to play up front for our mid-table Championship side to try and grab a goal.
  7. JPAngel
    It's just dawned on me that Man Utd haven't been above us in the table since matchday 1 after we lost to Newcastle. That is staggering.
  8. JPAngel
    I've been running my data over a 14 year period in which 71 points on average is enough to get 4th. If we hit 72 points and only land 5th we could consider ourselves incredibly unlucky.
  9. JPAngel
    Okay okay, I know I said I wouldn't include Man Utd in these charts again because they haven't been in realistic contention for a number of weeks but... how funny is this? I've intentionally stayed away from this thread following the City and Brentford games because there were a heck of a lot of knee-jerk reactions floating around and who needs that kind of negativity in their lives? Not I. Anyway, what an incredible weekend. 3 points gained on Spurs and a six goal swing in goal difference. Add to this the way in which Spurs played in their defeat compared to our own performance against Arsenal and it doesn't get much better than that! Now Arsenal and Man City are in our rear view mirror, our end of the season run in looks pretty good compared to Spurs, so it seems ownership of 4th place is back in our hands. If we match their results, Champions League football is ours next term and this news couldn't come at a better time with our English peers all wobbling in Europe.
  10. JPAngel
    It's a fake. Aside from some of the obvious things mentioned above, look at the smearing on the club badge in the upper right corner of each. The stroke around the badge has been smudged to oblivion.
  11. JPAngel
    I'd usually post some kind of chart or stat based findings about the United game last night but that game only served to showcase how utterly crap Man Utd are and that they were nowhere near this race. Despite some bedwetting within the thread, even a win wouldn't have changed a damn thing. The fact is, they are not consistent enough to compete with us or Spurs. This is a straight shootout between the two of us for 4th - enjoy it!
  12. JPAngel
    There have been a couple of comments about the form of ourselves and other teams in this thread which have been a bit off base. You might be surprised at how well we're doing compared to others... Above Man City, Tottenham and Man Utd is not a bad spot to be in at this stage of the season. Also, the folks concerned about Brentford, and I'm by no means discounting them, should take a quick peek at their ranking.
  13. JPAngel
    We all know exactly which pundits are doing this so I automatically and unconsciously read this in Jamie Carragher's accent.
  14. JPAngel
    Ah, so it's a trauma response. Understood!
  15. JPAngel
    Again, Man Utd are a big factor here as four of Spur's points came against them.
  16. JPAngel
    Too right! Just to further illustrate this point (because I am a sadist)... If our PPG dropped to 1 (relegation form), we'd end up on 67 points. Man Utd would then need to accumulate 20 points in the next 10 games to overtake us when you factor in goal difference. They would need to pick up wins against Sheffield United, Bournemouth, Burnley, Newcastle, Brighton, Crystal Palace and then one win (or two draws) against Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal. Man Utd overtaking us would not only require their biggest upswing in form over the course of the entire season, but it would also require us to embark on a run of form far below Emery's worst in his entire Villa career. United can do one.
  17. JPAngel
    We're mentioned on the first page. I hope that helps
  18. JPAngel
    This is heavily skewed by the addition of United. They will be nowhere near the top 5 come the end of the season and pretty much only serve to drag Villa down in this "top 6 mini-league". If you were to only look at the top 5 teams competing for Champions League football this season, we're joint top, I believe.
  19. JPAngel
    One quick update on me on the ol' PPG tracker: First things first, Man Utd are going to be absolutely nowhere near Spurs or Villa. No metric on earth says they're going to go on some unbelievable run so this is the last time they'll be included on this chart. It truly feels like a coin toss between us and Spurs for 4th, however. Our Avg PPG is 1.97, Spurs' is 1.90. This would indicate that we're most likely to finish above them, roughly two points clear but, if football was that easy to predict, it wouldn't be all that fun, would it? One interesting data point is that, if last season's corresponding fixtures were to bear out again, we'd each be level on 67 points after game week 37 going into a final day shootout for 4th place. Yikes. EDIT: I should also point out that three of the fixtures in our "corresponding fixtures" from last season were managed by Gerrard - all of which were defeats against Arsenal, Chelsea and Palace.
  20. JPAngel
    Wow. It looks like a very defeatist attitude but it's strikingly self aware. Admitting that Milan and Liverpool are bigger than them, while feeling they're on roughly the same level as Leverkusen, Marseille, Benfica and Roma is relatively accurate IMO. I can understand wanting to play in the Europa League if your only purpose in the CL is to be the whipping boys. That said, it's still music to my ears. If they don't want the fight then we'll gladly take 4th place!
  21. JPAngel
    It would be the most Southgate thing ever to take Ollie to the Euros and only bring him on for 10 minutes (as we're on the brink of defeat against someone like Croatia in the knockouts) only to play him on the left wing and keep Kane up top.
  22. JPAngel
    We want our club to be a brand that appeals to fans on a global level and this is part of it. I was delighted to see Youri score two last night because of what it might mean for his confidence when he gets back to Bodymoor Heath. That said, it might also have something to do with how much I despise the England team and its management at the moment.
  23. JPAngel
    I feel the most important part of our respective runs is the stint where Spurs play Newcastle, City, Arsenal, and Liverpool. They could quite conceivably lose four games on the bounce and it really wouldn't be that much of a shock. We need to get as much of a buffer in place as possible during that period and ahead of their last two fixtures as anything other than 6 points in those last two would be highly unusual.
  24. JPAngel
    Hopefully this cheers you up: Three of the upcoming games within the "last season's corresponding fixtures" line were managed by Gerrard - all of which were defeats. The games were Arsenal (A), Chelsea (H) and Palace (A).
  25. JPAngel
    A quick update from me, my PPG projections and the projections based on corresponding results last season. Our last result was consistent with last season so we're moving along nicely whereas Spurs projection has taken a hit as they won at Craven Cottage last season. This also sees their PPG take a hit with them now projected to finish on 71 points and Villa finishing two points clear on 73 points. I think people are giving Man Utd a little too much credit at the moment. Their current PPG average for the season is 1.68 which would see them finish on 63 points - a full ten points behind our projection. To overtake us (not taking the massive goal difference swing into account) they'd need a PPG average of 2.68. I know football can't be boiled down to mere projections but, for us to finish outside the top 5, it would require us to embark on a run of form that would be Emery's worst in his Villa career as well as Man Utd hitting a level of form that they haven't achieved all season. It feels like a coin toss as to whether we'll finish 4th or 5th but I'm pretty confident 5th will be enough for CL football this year based on the recent European draws. We've got this.
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