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Posts posted by JPAngel
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We want our club to be a brand that appeals to fans on a global level and this is part of it.
I was delighted to see Youri score two last night because of what it might mean for his confidence when he gets back to Bodymoor Heath. That said, it might also have something to do with how much I despise the England team and its management at the moment.
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1 hour ago, alreadyexists said:
I feel the most important part of our respective runs is the stint where Spurs play Newcastle, City, Arsenal, and Liverpool. They could quite conceivably lose four games on the bounce and it really wouldn't be that much of a shock.
We need to get as much of a buffer in place as possible during that period and ahead of their last two fixtures as anything other than 6 points in those last two would be highly unusual.
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7 hours ago, VillaJ100 said:
That 'last season results' line is giving me anxiety. To drop to 1ppg from here would be such a shame.
Hopefully this cheers you up:
Three of the upcoming games within the "last season's corresponding fixtures" line were managed by Gerrard - all of which were defeats. The games were Arsenal (A), Chelsea (H) and Palace (A).
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A quick update from me, my PPG projections and the projections based on corresponding results last season.
Our last result was consistent with last season so we're moving along nicely whereas Spurs projection has taken a hit as they won at Craven Cottage last season. This also sees their PPG take a hit with them now projected to finish on 71 points and Villa finishing two points clear on 73 points.
I think people are giving Man Utd a little too much credit at the moment. Their current PPG average for the season is 1.68 which would see them finish on 63 points - a full ten points behind our projection. To overtake us (not taking the massive goal difference swing into account) they'd need a PPG average of 2.68.
I know football can't be boiled down to mere projections but, for us to finish outside the top 5, it would require us to embark on a run of form that would be Emery's worst in his Villa career as well as Man Utd hitting a level of form that they haven't achieved all season.
It feels like a coin toss as to whether we'll finish 4th or 5th but I'm pretty confident 5th will be enough for CL football this year based on the recent European draws. We've got this.
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4 minutes ago, CVByrne said:City Madrid ffs that is a bad situation if City get dumped out. Dortmund got the easiest draw too
How do you consistently manage to find the most depressing available opinion? It's actually quite a skill
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It’s a shame Leverkusen haven’t gone straight out (still time of course) but I don’t think it’s going to matter that much in the long run. If they can’t beat Carrier Bag, they won’t stand a chance against Liverpool.
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Some of our results this season have been absolutely abysmal and will cost us a top 4 place.
Villa 1 - 2 Wolves
Everton 2 - 2 Villa
Brighton 4 - 2 Villa
Villa 1 - 2 West Ham
Wolves 2 - 1 Villa
Villa 1 - 4 ChelseaOh wait... no... Those are all Spurs results from the last 5 months. Silly me, I'd forgotten it wasn't just Villa that have bad weeks
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Updating this chart stings a bit after Sunday but, as much as a win would've been brilliant, it's just one game and we're still 4th and two points clear of Spurs.
Our overall PPG has dropped slightly below 2 now but we are still on course to finish above Spurs based on our respective performances over the whole of the season. A repeat of all of last seasons results for both clubs however, would now result in a 5th placed finish for us.
I don't think there's a single Villa fan that would've been disappointed if you'd shown them the current table at the beginning of the season. We are still on course for our best season in decades - don't let one result change the narrative or sentiment here.
I think Unai said it best: "We are sad, we are disappointed, but we are fourth".
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Bloody hell, I didn't expect to see these reactions in here.
I thought he played decently well in a tough centre midfield battle in his first start AND it was away to Ajax. The fact Emery trusts a 20 year old youngster to do that in a European knockout game speaks volumes.
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16 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:
Yeah the desire to correct what they see as an act of violence with their own act of violence from one of their players who is renowned for similar acts of violence is very amusing.
It'll be funny when Cash doesn't even play. They'll claim he was scared
I've been thinking this, too.
Emery seems to like Konsa at right back in games against better opposition so it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Cash on the bench. I can already foresee pages of tweets from Spurs fans saying Emery knew "Cuti" would end Cash's career.
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1 minute ago, Aston_Villan4 said:
I know a spurs guy who desperately wants Romero to injure Cash badly enough to force him to retire. Poor guy has lost his mind over it.
My in-laws are Spurs fans and they had the strangest reaction to that Cash challenge.
My Father-in-law, who is a physicist, a lecturer, and an all round wonderful human was absolutely appalled at Cash’s challenge on Bentancur. Said he “knew exactly what he was doing” and that he’d aimed to injure him.
Absolutely baffling.
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6 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:
Been waiting for this
Now taking United into the picture.
To overtake us, due to GD, even if they matched our PPG +1 it still wouldn't be enough.
If we maintain our 2.04 PPG, United mathematically can't catch us.
If we drop to 1.5 PPG (which would mean Unai's worst form for us ever) they'd need more than 2.5 PPG. From 11 games it means they'd need a minimum of 28 points (9 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)
They aren't doing that.
Even if we drop to 1 PPG (meaning we only probably win another 2/3 games all season, they'd need 2 PPG minimum, meaning winning probably 6/11. Also not likely to happen.
Spot on.
While it feels like counting our chickens before they're hatched, it really does feel like top 5 is now guaranteed. And, with CL football likely to trickle down to 5th place, we might as well get used to the idea of hearing the Champions League anthem blaring out of the Villa Park speaker system in the near future.
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Boy do I love updating these charts after a win...
Our PPG average for the season has now exceeded 2 and stands at 2.04 meaning that we're currently on course for 77 points for the season. 14 year averages indicate that this would be enough for a 3rd place finish. However, with City, Liverpool and Arsenal playing as well as they are, I feel as though that won't be the case this season but we shall see.
I've said it plenty of times before - as have many others - but the average requirement for 4th place over the last 14 years is 71 points. Both Spurs and ourselves are on course to exceed that requirement and there's only space for one of us.
Others have said it already but this feels like less of a case of "lets hit X points target to achieve Y goal" and more "match (or better) Spurs results and we'll claim 4th as Man Utd are seemingly out of it.
The most important thing to remember is this is in our hands. We're in the driving seat and 4th place is ours to lose.
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I haven't done one of these since the Forest game and, as the race seems to have whittled down to just three teams, I've tweaked things for a clear picture of the run-in.
If PPG projections are anything to go by, we could be looking at one of the rare occasions that 71 points would not be enough to secure 4th place - and this honour is currently going to Spuds. Our average of 2 PPG would see us finish on 76 points and Man Utd would finish way down on 64 points.
Interestingly, if all teams in the race repeated their results from last season against the same opposition (or those replacing relegated teams), we'd all finish exactly as we are now and 69 points would be enough for 4th place.
With 5th place potentially offering a CL spot, we should be fine and it would take a fairly sizeable collapse for us to drop to 6th. It would also require Man Utd overturning a near 12 point PPG average to overtake us.
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3 hours ago, CVByrne said:
I know this is irrelevant but I absolutely detest the way this guy speaks. I cannot watch their videos for longer than a few seconds.
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45 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:
Really good to see this represented. If it's not too much work, could you do a graph for United? Then it can be visually represented the tear United will likely need to go on to finish 4th.
Good question.
Using all the same averages I've been using this season for the chart on our progress against Man Utd, we get the below:
Man Utd are averaging 1.76 PPG which, across an entire season, would see them finish with 67 points (actually 66.8 points) and would generally be enough for a 5th/6th placed finish. For context, 66 points was enough for 5th place in 50% of the last 14 seasons.
Interestingly, using the results from last season's corresponding fixtures against their remaining fixtures this season would see them land on 66 points which is pretty damn close to their projection. For them to reach the required average points for 4th place, they'd need to earn another 27 points from their remaining games, a PPG average of 2.07. Here are their remaining fixtures where they earned a total of 22 points:
Team Location Previous Season FUL H W MNC A L EVE H W SHU H D BRE A L CHE A D LIV H W BOU A W NEW H D BUR H W CRY A D ARS H W BRI A L - 1
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I haven't dropped one of these charts in here for a while (mainly because I tried not to think about Villa for a few days following a pretty miserable visit to VP for the United game!) but here's a quick update:
For some reason, and this could be blind optimism, but I can't help but feel we've turned a bit of a corner. Chelsea in the cup aside, we played well at Sheff Utd, played some great stuff against Man Utd (but weren't clinical) and earned a well deserved victory against Fulham. If we continue with our projected points for the season, it'd generally be enough for a 3rd place finish - pretty staggering when you consider how we went off the boil after the Arsenal game, alongside the injuries we've sustained.
Of course, that feels somewhat fanciful and I still feel 4th will be the best we can achieve. We need 22 points from the last 13 games of the season to finish 4th (based on 14 years of PL averages).
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Bloody hell, I wouldn’t want to be in the trenches with some of you lot!
We can’t control what happens around us and have to focus on our game tomorrow. Crunch tie. I hope VP is up for this one because we’re really going to need them.- 6
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1 hour ago, Zatman said:
Maybe not hound out soon but online you can feel some idiots turning and dont realise how shit we were when he took over
Naturally would prefer that we have a passion merchant like Pulis or someone similar
Agree with this and it scares me. I've been at so many games where there are constant shouts (expletives removed) of "get it forward quicker!", "mix it up!", "wake up Villa", "get it up the pitch!", "why are we just playing it around the back!?".
Emery has done a lot to educate our fanbase but there are some beyond help.
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We lost in the FA Cup to Chelsea. It's a shame, now let's get over it and get back to our primary focus - the Prem. The overreaction to wins and losses in the football world never cease to amaze me.
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5 hours ago, Wainy316 said:
Real Madrid v Barcelona
It's still a derby. A game between teams in close proximity is a 'local derby'
Yeah, just the short, 7 hour drive between the two
A "derby" is a game between two rivals that are based in areas of close geographical proximity.
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There are some rumblings about a potential sacking for Poch based on their form throughout the season so far. Let's contribute to that with a win, chaps.
Ollie Watkins
in Villa Talk
Posted
It would be the most Southgate thing ever to take Ollie to the Euros and only bring him on for 10 minutes (as we're on the brink of defeat against someone like Croatia in the knockouts) only to play him on the left wing and keep Kane up top.