leviramsey

Still my choice for best football weekend of all time: the 2003-04 Divisional Round

Panthers beat Rams 29-23 (2OT road win)

Eagles beat Packers 20-17 (OT)

Colts beat Chiefs 38-31 (road win)

Patriots beat Titans 17-14

Of course, the week before was the Matt Hasselbeck "we'll take the ball and we're going to score" followed by pick-6.  The Patriots-Panthers super bowl that year was one of the great ones:

The only knockout competition that consistently matches the NFL playoffs for entertainment value is March Madness (though that's mostly because there's multiple games simultaneously, so there's nearly always a good game on).

I'd put the 2012 Falcons out there as the worst #1 this decade (sub-10.0% overall DVOA while going 13-3).

Am I the only one scratching my head over the Buccs firing Lovie Smith?

They get their QB in the draft. Have 2 stud WR (if VJAX is back), second best RB in the league counting yards. goes from 2 to 6 wins. Coach is a defensive thinker so one would assume he'll get the D in order to match the talent on O. He gets only 2 years.

No, just no, I don't get it

Only hypothesis that makes sense, especially given the timing, which will prevent them from interviewing playoff coaches, is that their OC, Dirk Koetter, got an offer from another team and they need to promote him to keep him for Winston.

Why have the Packers been so up and down?  Is it down to injuries?  Is Rodgers having a 'mare?  Maybe like the Patriots they'll be a different beast in the post-season, but they've shown little to convince me they'll brush past the improving Redskins.  Plus a mate of mine is a long-suffering Redskins fan so I'll be rooting for them.

No ability to pass more than a few yards downfield and a coach who's unwilling to admit it. They got off to that good start because, just like it takes 5 or 6 weeks of game film to suss out a new QB, it took about that long to realize the Packers had nothing but short passes.

Only Conference/Super Bowl futures that look worth playing are Bengals to win AFC at 9-1 (which is really a play on them beating Pittsburgh: if they can beat the Steelers, they'll take care of the Chiefs, Broncos and/or Patriots), Cardinals to win NFC at 9-4, and Cardinals to win Super Bowl at 9-2 (all prices quoted from Nitrogen).  Those are the only teams that lack a really weak link squad-wise combined with solid coaching.

I do think Belichick wanted to avoid the Steelers until the AFCCG, simply because the Steelers main weakness is an atrocious secondary, but they won't get punished for that by the Broncos (who are too vanilla to exploit that) or Bengals, but it's a fatal flaw against the Patriots.

On 1/4/2016 at 15:40, Brumerican said:

Sam Bradford , at a push.

The Browns do have the cap room and the second pick.  If they offered the pick to the Saints for Brees and Payton, the Saints would listen.

On 1/4/2016 at 20:39, Milfner said:

Manziel went out on the lash in Vegas yesterday whilst in the concussion protocol and didn't report to the Browns medical team today. God, I hope he never plays in the league again. Dickhead.

Cowboys will probably sign him to be Romo's heir apparent.

Momentum building for some version of ejection for two personal fouls; if that goes in, it'll be known as the Odell Beckham Rule.

I would probably implement that rule as after two personal fouls, the replay official decides if the fouls were correctly called (the officials do mess up who did what) and if the totality calls for an ejection.

The Packers and Falcons are collateral damage in this. A Vikings loss is very helpful for them.

Seeing some discussion about what the Giants/Vikings point spread goes to, but I don't see much movement likely: you'd have to think that bettors were largely pricing no Beckham. My model will probably tell me to bet Giants on Sunday though...

Jack Del Rio would carry an ax as a warmup/motivational tool ("keep chopping wood").

Regarding the bat, it's funny that no Giants mentioned it on Sunday. Obviously they weren't taking it as a threat, or perhaps the Giants players and coaches have no idea what's going on on the field.

Then again, considering the terrible clock management, play calling, and late game meltdowns this season.

Coughlin saying that he had no clue Beckham was the one being flagged.

Referees are going to know that Beckham is capable of losing it; that's going to mean quicker flags and quicker ejections (look at Suh). Every DB in the league next season will be playing Josh Norman games against Odell in the hope of getting him to go crazy and get ejected. If you have a player you can't beat physically, but you can apparently make beat himself mentally/emotionally, then that's what you do.

They know now that he can't take taunting...

As for the bat, it's interesting that the Giants apparently didn't notice it on game day (perhaps because pregame bats are not an uncommon thing in football).

Norman bitching about it has nothing to do with the suspension.  Norman could have said, "that's football, I was taunting him like a bitch and he showed he wasn't going to take it", and Beckham would still be completely justifiably suspended.

At any rate, whoever coaches Beckham is going to have to work on him taking taunting (even if it is against the rules, it's not all called) without getting off his game.  Every DB in the league knows that he's emotionally fragile.

How does any of this absolve Beckham?

Or alternatively, what's the basis for a successful appeal?

If anything that makes a suspension more likely.

The Concussion movie that comes out on Christmas. The NFL wants the Beckham story to go away by Friday when the movie opens.

• No suspension: all media coverage of the game focuses on Beckham. Terrible PR for the NFL.
• Delayed suspension: all media coverage of the game focuses on Beckham and how the NFL delayed a suspension to appease TV. Terrible PR for the NFL.
• Suspension reduced to fine: all media coverage of the game focuses on Beckham and him getting off, but the NFL gets to blame it on the union.
• Immediate suspension: mentioned occasionally that the Giants are missing Beckham, but he had to be suspended to clean up the game. NFL comes out looking good.
• Multi-game suspension reduced to 1 game: mentioned occasionally that the Giants are missing Beckham; NFL gets to blame the union.

In rough ascending order of what the league will want.

That's irrelevant.  Did Norman go helmet-to-helmet with intent to deliver a kill shot?

If Odell Beckham is a safety, the suspension is not controversial.

The only thing that keeps this from being multiple games before appeal is the Giants being one of the favored franchises (basically the Patriots, Giants, Steelers, Bears, and Packers).

I do have to say that my Moto 360 is one of the best $0.99 (with free shipping) I've ever spent.

(back in June AT&T were offering a 360 for $0.99 with free shipping if you got a Moto X (2014)... no contract beyond paying $22.80/month for the phone)

• Patriots clinch bye
• Bills eliminated
• Bengals clinch division
• Raiders eliminated
• Cowboys eliminated
• Packers clinch playoffs
• Bears eliminated
• Bucs eliminated
• Saints eliminated
• Cardinals clinch division
• Seahawks clinch playoffs
• Rams eliminated

I see a 2-game suspension for Beckham after appeal (1 game for the punch, 1 game for the spear). Goodell may come down with a 4 or 8 game suspension due to the circumstances (mainly the movie), but those shouldn't affect the appeal.

Even if not a league suspension, judging by the reaction from media who have been pretty good over the years at carrying Mara water (King, Carl Banks), Mara may tell Coughlin to bench Beckham the rest of the season.

Please miss this FG...

(I may have put money on Panthers -4)

Playoff scenarios (ignoring ties)

• Patriots clinch bye with:
  • win and Broncos loss
• Bills eliminated with:
  • loss and Jets win
  • loss and Steelers win
• Bengals clinch division with:
  • Steelers loss
• Bengals clinch playoff berth with:
  • win
  • Jets loss
  • Chiefs loss
• Jaguars eliminated with:
  • loss and Colts win
• Broncos clinch division with:
  • win and Chiefs loss
• Broncos clinch playoff berth with:
  • win
• Raiders eliminated with:
  • loss and two of three from Chiefs win, Jets win, and Steelers win
• Cowboys eliminated with:
  • loss
  • two of three from Giants win, Eagles win, and Washington win
• Packers clinch playoff berth with:
  • win
  • Washington loss
  • Giants loss
• Vikings clinch playoff berth with:
  • win and Washington loss and Falcons loss
  • win and Washington loss and Seahawks loss
  • win and Giants loss and Falcons loss
  • win and Giants loss and Seahawks loss
• Bears eliminated with:
  • loss
• Panthers clinch home-field advantage:
  • win and Cardinals loss
• Bucs eliminated with:
  • Seahawks win and Vikings win
• Falcons eliminated with:
  • loss and Vikings win
• Saints eliminated with:
  • loss
  • Seahawks win and Vikings win
• Cardinals clinch bye with:
  • win and Packers loss
• Cardinals clinch division with:
  • win
  • Seahawks loss
  • Bengals win and Saints win and Cowboys lose and Steelers lose (if the Cardinals don't win and the Seahawks don't lose, the Seahawks can only pass the Cardinals by having a better strength of victory; this scenario ensures that the Seahawks have a worse SoV)
• Seattle clinches playoff berth with:
  • win and Giants loss
  • win and Washington loss
  • win and Falcons loss and Vikings loss and Packers win
• Rams eliminated with:
  • Seahawks win and Vikings win

On that note, the latest Monte Carlo puts our chance of staying up at 0.7%.

(That's actually an improvement...)

 

1/12 on with most firms for the drop. 

(That's actually FUBAR)

I'm not saying we're not FUBAR. The bookies are overestimating our chances of staying up (to the point that it's not a bad idea to put 2% of your net worth on us to go down).

However, our chances of staying up are better than they were a week ago.

On that note, the latest Monte Carlo puts our chance of staying up at 0.7%.

(That's actually an improvement...)

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2596986-remembering-the-day-cam-newton-almost-died

Great article

Another Monte Carlo round, and we continue modest improvement: we now have a better chance of staying up than we did when Garde was appointed.