leviramsey

Gabbert notches his first outdoor road win

I never thought I'd see the words Gilbride and genius in proximity in this thread...

I do think the points system is slightly unbalanced. If a clean sheet is worth 6 points for a defender, a goal conceded should be more than -2 points, it makes it the equivalent of a save at 2 points or making 2 tackles. Especially is a chance created is worth 3 points. 

If the clean sheet is worth 6 then conceding a goal is effectively -8 for the first goal conceded.

Basically. One flaw in the article is using college conversion rates and NFL win probabilities.

College football teams run more plays, due to a combination of faster tempo and the clock stopping for around 10 seconds after first downs.

The biggest takeaways for me are that in general, you should always call a timeout when in FG range on 2nd or 3rd down, but on first down the 5 yard deficit is easily overcome. Also, that inside of 10 yards on 2nd or 3rd down you should call a timeout in the 4th quarter for practically the entire length of the field. Certainly not what I expected.

If the Panthers lose to the Saints and the Falcons beat the Buccaneers, Carolina can clinch a playoff berth by getting rid of one team between ARI/SEA and MIN/GB, the teams that could catch or beat them as a wild card at 11-5. A Seattle loss or tie gets rid of one team, thus that gets the Panthers in. If Seattle doesn't lose or tie (meaning Minnesota lost), that combined with Arizona and Green Bay losses sets off a domino effect of games including ARI-MIN, ARI-GB, ARI-SEA, MIN-GB that clinches a spot in the top-six seeds for the Panthers.

For the Patriots, Buffalo can't catch them for the division title, since New England has swept the Bills and Buffalo can't use the Jets in a three-way tie to overcome that H2H deficit. That leaves the Jets, who can still beat the Pats on overall record and can split H2H if they beat New England in Week 16. The Patriots really just need one more division win to clinch that tiebreaker at 5-1 vs. 4-2, but they don't play within the AFC East until the final two weeks of the season against the Jets and Dolphins. New England can actually lose their next four games while the Jets could win their next four (each team would be 10-5 with one week to play) and the Patriots would only need to beat the Dolphins in Miami to still win the division (or have the Jets lose at Buffalo).

Having said that, the Pats can clinch the division this week with a win and a Jets loss in a similar fashion to Carolina above, as New England needs to win on overall record for now. It should be noted that if the Patriots win this week against the Eagles (non-conference) and then lose out and both the Pats and Jets end at 11-5, the Jets would beat the Patriots on conference record 8-4 to 7-5. If New England had a division game this week, they could clinch the title with a win this week.

On the playoff clinching side, the Patriots need to get better than 10 wins (win or tie this week) and have the five-loss teams like the Steelers and Chiefs take a hit.

Cincinnati can clinch a playoff berth this week with a win at Cleveland and a number of the five-loss teams losing, which gets the AFC South down to only the division champ that can catch the Bengals and creates another domino effect, with the Steelers likely needing to win out to beat the Bengals for the division, which gives the Broncos a loss and so on and so on. More to come on this.

Tiebreaker notes:

• The Giants' loss to the Redskins this past week was key as, although they split H2H, the Giants are now fall behind the Redskins on division record (2-1 vs. 2-3) and conference record (5-3 vs. 4-5). Any tie between these teams would likely give Washington the edge.
• Cowboys fans would have to see their team win three of its last five games (without Tony Romo) to even stand a slim chance of winning the division at 6-10, as wild-card chances are slim to none. Can that happen?
• The Vikings have a one-game lead over the Packers but Green Bay has that H2H win in hand with a big clash between these two ahead in Week 17. As long as the Packers can stay within one game of the Vikings through Week 16, they control their own fate for the division title.
• If the Falcons lose at the Buccaneers this week, you can likely write off Atlanta despite being tied with Seattle for the sixth seed at 6-5. A loss would give TB a sweep of Atlanta and drop the Falcons to 0-3 in the division and 4-5 in the conference. No bueno.
• The Seahawks are the No. 6 seed if the season ended today (conference record over Atlanta) and have a huge game at the Vikings this week that could determine wild-card seeding and the NFC North title. It's better for Seattle if Green Bay wins their division, since the Seahawks lost to the Packers in Week 2. Seattle would try to reel in the Vikings and secure the No. 5 seed.
• The Jets are on the outside looking in of the four 6-5 wild-card combatants based on conference record, and they don't have H2H games against that group other than a loss to Houston. With two of their next three games against NFC teams, they just need to keep winning and hope others take some conference losses.
• The Steelers are the current No. 8 seed at 6-5 and a win this week against the Colts would go a long way to gaining a wild-card berth. Pittsburgh has already lost to the Chiefs and has a tough two-game stretch following the Colts with a visit to the Bengals and hosting the Broncos.
• There is renewed hope for a wild-card team to come out of the previous laughingstock AFC South, with both the Colts and Texans at 6-5 and the Texans currently the No. 6 seed. Houston does have losses to Kansas City and Indianapolis already, so wins in the next few weeks, including at the Colts in Week 15, will be key.
• I continue to say that the Chiefs are looking more and more like the eventual No. 5 seed and could overtake the Broncos in the division, although Denver's great comeback win over New England last Sunday took some of the steam off that story. The Chiefs have remaining games against Oakland (twice), San Diego, Baltimore and Cleveland, none with a winning record, and three of their opponents have three wins or less. It's not murderers row, by any means.

Week 13 playoff scenarios

Patriots better result than Jets: Patriots win AFC East

Patriots better result than Chiefs: Patriots clinch playoffs

Patriots better result than Steelers: Patriots clinch playoffs

Bengals win & Colts loss & Texans loss/tie & Jets loss: Bengals clinch playoffs

Bengals win & Colts loss/tie & Texans loss & Jets loss: Bengals clinch playoffs

Bengals win & Colts loss & Texans loss/tie & Chiefs loss & Broncos win/tie: Bengals clinch playoffs

Bengals win & Colts loss/tie & Texans loss & Chiefs loss & Broncos win/tie: Bengals clinch playoffs

Panthers win/tie: Panthers win NFC South

Falcons loss/tie: Panthers win NFC South

Seahawks loss/tie: Panthers clinch playoffs

Cardinals loss & Packers loss/tie: Panthers clinch playoffs

Cardinals loss/tie & Packers loss: Panthers clinch playoffs

Analysis

Going to 2 divisions of eight in each conference might make things better: you play seven games (alternating home and away year to year) against your division, five of the eight (based on standings) in the other division in your conference, then a 2-year division rotation through the other conference where you play the team that finished in the corresponding place and the three out of seven you've gone the longest without playing.

AFC East: Patriots, Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Ravens, Steelers, Browns, Jaguars

AFC West: Bengals, Colts, Titans, Texans, Chiefs, Broncos, Raiders, Chargers

NFC East: Giants, Eagles, Washington, Panthers, Falcons, Bucs, Saints, Cowboys

NFC West: Lions, Packers, Bears, Vikings, Rams, Cardinals, 49ers, Seahawks

Most "win big, lose close" QBs over the past 35 years (difference in win percentage where they didn't have a 4th quarter comeback/game-winning drive opportunity vs. those where they did)

1. Aaron Rodgers: 70-10 vs. 13-32
2. Russell Wilson: 31-0 vs. 17-19
3. Philip Rivers: 70-19 vs. 25-50
4. Chad Pennington: 35-13 vs. 11-28
5. Seneca Wallace: 4-3 vs. 2-13
6. Rex Grossman: 17-5 vs. 10-19
7. Bill Kenney: 27-16 vs. 7-27
8. Kurt Warner: 62-23 vs. 14-30
9. Joe Flacco: 61-15 vs. 24-37
10. Kyle Orton: 33-16 vs. 9-24
11. Cam Newton: 32-12 vs. 10-21-1

And on other games (author is a Steeler fan)

The annual regular-season game of the year in the AFC did not feature Peyton Manning this time, but again it was his Broncos against Tom Brady and the Patriots as NBC had another instant classic in the snow. The 30-24 final is misleading for the top two scoring defenses coming into Week 12, as each team had 15 possessions and there were multiple short-field touchdown drives. This was a defensive game with an offensive ending.

When Brady threw a 63-yard touchdown to Brandon Bolden to start the fourth quarter, the Patriots had a commanding 21-7 lead. At home, they never lose in this situation, but on the road has been a different story. We had the stat earlier this year on how the Steelers are 170-3-1 since 1992 when leading by at least 11 points at any time in the game. I didn't have time to add up the number of wins (it's somewhere between one and 243), but this is actually the 17th time Bill Belichick has lost a game after leading by at least 11 points. It is the sixth time he has lost a 14-point lead with the Patriots. I never paid much attention to New England fans that fear playing at Mile High, but the Broncos are indeed 16-3 against the Patriots in Denver since the 1970 merger.

New England got the ball right back with 4:12 left for some four-minute offense. Gronkowski converted one first down, but the Patriots made a strategic error that almost derailed the season. No one throws the ball on first down in the last four minutes, protecting a one-score lead, more than Brady. He has done it six times this season; the rest of the NFL has eight such attempts combined. His five attempts on second down are also a high in 2015. You would want to throw high-percentage passes to keep the clock moving in this scenario, which is what the Patriots usually live on anyway, but Brady's career completion percentage is below average in these situations.

Here he failed to connect with Gronkowski on first down, and Gronkowski was writhing in pain after the play. The injury initially looked really bad, but fortunately Gronk should be back soon. However, his night was done and Brady threw another incompletion on second down before gaining 7 yards on a third-down screen. Keep in mind, Denver only had one timeout left. New England absolutely should have run the ball on first down, still allowing Brady two chances to throw. Smarter management of the clock could have helped the Patriots walk out with a perfect record and a healthy Gronkowski.

Brock Osweiler had 2:31 left to drive 83 yards for the go-ahead touchdown, a situation new to him in the NFL. We have a lot to learn on what kind of quarterback this kid is, but one thing he has not been so far is much of a deep passer. Coming into this drive, Osweiler was 1-of-11 with two pass interference penalties on passes that traveled more than 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. He picked a good time for his second completion. Demaryius Thomas picked a good time to make his lone catch of the night after a horrific 0-for-11 start, pulling in a 36-yard gain over Logan Ryan, who gave him fits most of the night. At this point Osweiler should have just taken his time, cautiously leaving Brady little time to answer. However, young quarterbacks just cannot seem to help themselves in these moments, and he went deep again with a 39-yard strike to Emmanuel Sanders.

From the 8-yard line, Osweiler ran out of bounds on a quarterback sweep that was just an odd play all around. On second down, he was buried on a sack that would have brought up a very interesting third-and-15 situation. Again, the Patriots were basically hosed on a penalty that did not need to be called as two guys were competing. Patrick Chung was penalized for holding against Thomas, but both players had a hold of each other. You have to let those plays go. From the 4-yard line, Osweiler threw one of his best passes of the night to Andre Caldwell against Ryan for the go-ahead touchdown with 1:09 left.

(Ed. Note: I hope Scott doesn't mind if I butt in here with a thought on the officiating Sunday night. Fans are constantly looking for conspiracy theories when it comes to the Patriots. Pats fans think the league is out to get them. Pats haters think the Pats constantly get the benefit of calls. But there's a pretty simple explanation for the questionable, one-sided officiating in the fourth quarter. Officials tend to subconsciously favor the home team. It's not about any franchise in particular. -- Aaron Schatz)

Brady got the ball back with 69 seconds to get a field goal. With all New England's injuries, this is basically the Scott Chandler and Brandon LaFell offense now. They made all three catches on the drive and we learned that an "excess timeout" for injury is not really a timeout, as the clock kept running. Instead it is just a temporary pause, as the clock will wind on the ready-for-play signal. Learning something new every week. Stephen Gostkowski is an excellent kicker, and he proved his worth again with a 47-yard field goal to send this to overtime.

Two years ago, Belichick took the wind in overtime against Denver's record-setting offense with Peyton Manning and it worked out. The game was ultimately decided on a muffed punt. Belichick should have put his defense out there first again in this one. Yes, Denver had just finished a 17-point quarter, but you have to trust your defense to not give up an 80-yard touchdown drive to an offense playing conventional three-down football with an inconsistent quarterback. At full strength, you give the ball to Brady, but this offense is not the same with all the injuries. New England had just one drive longer than 60 yards all night.

Naturally, the Patriots had a quick three-and-out, with the pressure amped up on Brady. The drive even lost 7 yards thanks to a Von Miller sack, so the Denver offense got to start at its own 43, only needing a field goal. On third-and-1, C.J. Anderson got the ball on a toss, and with Patriots diving at his feet, he ran 48 yards for the game-winning touchdown to end another perfect season bid. This is only the second time in modified overtime that a team won on a second-possession touchdown.

Denver can still realistically think about the No. 1 seed now. For the Patriots, this is only the 15th fourth-quarter comeback allowed in the last 15 years. That is remarkable given that we talk about a proud team like Seattle allowing 15 since 2012 alone. Given the injuries both teams have had, the Patriots have to feel good about a rematch with Denver -- but not so much if that rematch takes place in Mile High, their house of horrors.

The only other game in NFL history won on a walk-off blocked field goal return was Denver against San Diego in 1985, a game the Broncos won 30-24 in overtime. Does that score sound familiar? What a crazy ending to another wild week of football.

Football Outsiders looks at the Giants-Redskins game

An awful performance in late November that deals a big hit to the loser's playoff chances? For any team but the New York Giants, that would lead to gnashing of teeth and gnawing of fingernails. Eli Manning throws three interceptions (and makes an impressive effort to add a couple more) against the No. 26 pass defense by DVOA? Right tackle Marshall Newhouse gets turnstiled repeatedly by the No. 23 line by adjusted sack rate? Safety Brandon Meriweather lets DeSean Jackson get 5 yards behind him for a 63-yard touchdown? Sounds concerning, but then you remember that this is the boom year in the four-year Super Bowl cycle, so the Giants are supposed to look like they don’t belong before somehow squeezing into the playoffs and then beating the Patriots to win it all.

 

Well, this week the Giants certainly did look like they don't belong. Sunday night, the Patriots suffered a fumble luck-driven six-point loss in overtime that didn’t tell us much about their championship chances. (That game is now covered in depth in Clutch Encounters.) But earlier in the day, the Giants’ 20-14 loss showed as many warning signs as a six-point loss could. The 20-0 lead that Washington held into the fourth quarter came from a hail of Eli Manning mistakes that suggest his closest counterpart in the NFL today might well be the frequently turnover-prone quarterback he went up against on Sunday.

 

While no single game should change the perception of Eli Manning at this point, Sunday’s game was a reminder that a turnover machine still lurks in that No. 10 jersey, even if it generally remains caged. Manning’s three interceptions didn’t even include some of his worst throws.

[GIFs omitted]

 

Sunday’s careless Manning (in fairness, these throws did come in a game situation where risk-taking made sense) has appeared much less frequently in the last couple of years than in 2013, when he led the league with 27 interceptions. Sunday was just Manning’s second three-interception game in the last two seasons, after five such games in 2013. But while Manning now throws fewer interceptions, he has not gotten much more efficient in general. Manning throws shorter passes -- after averaging 9.78 air yards on his passes in 2013, that number dropped almost two full yards to 7.88 yards this season -- and takes fewer chances, but he has been almost exactly a league-average quarterback over the last two years.

 

The two-year increments for Manning show that he has a pretty standard career trajectory for non-elite quarterbacks. He peaked in his very late 20s and now appears to be on a downward slide that has not been halted by the shift to throwing shorter passes. Manning’s completion percentage has gone up, but his effectiveness has gone up at most only a little. That Manning has felt the pull of gravity towards zero DVOA despite gaining a receiver who defies the laws of physics adds more reason to doubt that Playoff Eli -- that guy who came out of nowhere to be dominant in January of 2008 and 2012 -- will reappear this year. It could happen again, but the odds against it are even stronger than in those years before Manning turned 30.

 

As we enter December, it’s hard not to keep thinking about the Giants as the team with upside behind an up-and-down quarterback. But if one of these two teams makes any noise, the better bet might be Washington, a team that several of us pegged as a candidate for the No. 1 overall pick before the season.

 

Sunday’s game felt like much more of an ass-kicking than the 20-14 final score, and DVOA calls it that way, too. Washington outgained the Giants by 75 yards and won the turnover battle 3-0. Despite losing by only six, the opponent adjustments push the Giants’ rating down to the second-lowest total of the week, ahead only of the Eagles.

 

The opponent adjustments also push the Giants’ offensive rating down to the second-lowest total of the week, just ahead of the Cowboys’ disaster on Thanksgiving.

From the comments: 1986, 1990, 2007, 2011 -> 2028, 2032

Apparently it's just a bruised knee for Gronkowski.  Likely will not miss a game.

Apparently, "football move" is basically an invention of the TV commentators: it's not actually in the rulebook.

They refuse to make the rules black and white because every option for making them black and white results in things which are undesirable (e.g. making a black and white catch rule will increase fumbles).

If anyone ever doubts how important fumble luck is, just show them Patriots-Broncos.  Belichick owned Kubiak and Phillips about as much as it's possible to (of course, Belichick has been owning Kubiak and Phillips for years now), but that don't mean a thing when the fumbles bounce.

Great comment seen elsewhere: "RG3 (owed $16.5 million if he's on the opening day roster next season, and with only one year left) only has trade value if Chip Kelly is still in the league."

Will Gruden be the longest-tenured coach in the NFCE next season? Coughlin's probably not coming back, Kelly is a dead man walking, and you have to wonder if the injuries will be not enough of an excuse to save Garrett.

Panthers clinch playoffs with a Steelers win or tie.

Patriots cannot clinch playoffs tonight (they could have if the Jets or Chiefs lost).

Over the past 5 games, Rodgers is averaging 4.88 net yards (counting sacks) per attempt.  Splits happen and all that, but the only other starting QBs to have season averages below 5 in the past 5 years are named Gabbert, Tebow, and Bradford.

Games between teams in different tiers today:

• Vikings (tier 3) win @ Falcons (tier 5)
• Bengals (tier 2) win v Rams (tier 5)
• Texans (tier 4) win v Saints (tier 5)
• Colts (tier 4) win v Bucs (tier 5)
• Chiefs (tier 1) win v Bills (tier 4)
• Raiders (tier 5) win @ Titans (tier 6)
• Giants (tier 4) lose @ Washington (tier 5)
• Jets (tier 4) win v Dolphins (tier 5)

8-1, with Cardinals (tier 2) @ 49ers (tier 5), Steelers (tier 3) @ Seahawks (tier 4), Patriots (tier 1) @ Broncos (tier 2), and Ravens (tier 5) @ Browns (tier 6) still to play.

From the odds, the expected record was 4.8 - 3.2.

The ratings weight more recent (since Week 8 currently) results more highly.  Since then the Chiefs blew out the Lions (tier 4 and recently hot), Broncos (tier 2), and Chargers (tier 5).  Before that, they beat the the Steelers (tier 3) and Texans (tier 4).  As for their losses, only away to Bengals (tier 2) approaches a blowout, and the 1-point home loss to the Bears is a lot less embarrassing than it was a month ago. Combine with how poor the Patriots have looked recently and the Panthers not playing that hard a schedule of late, and the Chiefs rate very slightly better than the Patriots.

Grading Chiefs performances at scoring and keeping their opponents from scoring (for a rough idea of the scale, +4 means elite offense with elite defense (or possibly one unit so good it doesn't matter how poor the other unit is), -4 means in the running for worst team of all time), with the Patriots corresponding grade in parentheses:

• 33-3 Chargers: +3.22 (20-13 Bills: +0.88)
• 29-13 Broncos: +3.15 (27-26 Giants: +0.29)
• 45-10 Lions: +2.67 (27-10 Washington: +1.32)
• 23-13 Steelers: +1.45 (36-7 Dolphins: +2.32)
• 10-16 Vikings: -0.95 (30-23 Jets: +1.19)
• 17-18 Bears: -0.34 (34-27 Colts: +0.87)
• 21-36 Bengals: -0.73 (30-6 Cowboys: +2.23)
• 28-38 Packers: -0.76 (51-17 Jaguars: +2.72)
• 24-31 Broncos: -0.74 (40-32 Bills: +1.03)
• 27-20 Texans: +0.44 (28-21 Steelers: +1.29)

If the Chiefs keep up their current form, they'll be at least 10-6 and probably be the #1 wildcard in the AFC, and should easily dispatch whoever comes out of the South; they'd have a chance in Foxboro in the divisional round.

Massey's ratings (a restricted version of his ratings was used in the college BCS; his ratings are still consulted by the CFP selection committee) have the Chiefs as the sixth best team in the NFL (and I don't believe his rating weights for recency; his are 1. Patriots, 2. Panthers, 3. Cardinals, 4. Bengals, 5. Broncos, 6. Chiefs).

Halfway through the season now (in general, I'd pick a team in a higher tier to win home or away over a team in a lower tier)

1. Broncos
2. Patriots
3. Bengals, Packers, Panthers
4. Cardinals
5. Steelers, Jets, Eagles, Raiders
6. Vikings, Rams, Seahawks, Chiefs
7. Falcons, Giants, Dolphins, Saints
8. Ravens, Bills, Washington, Cowboys, Browns, Colts, Texans, Chargers, Bucs, 49ers, Bears
9. Jaguars, Lions, Titans

Through Thanksgiving (by request)

1. Chiefs, Patriots
2. Panthers, Broncos, Cardinals, Bengals, Packers
3. Vikings, Steelers
4. Seahawks, Giants, Bears, Bills, Texans, Lions, Jets, Colts
5. Rams, Raiders, Falcons, Washington, Ravens, Bucs, Saints, Chargers, Eagles, 49ers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Cowboys
6. Titans, Browns

So with Romo out, the Eagles in disarray, and Washington down a starting corner, New Englanders are getting a little nervous.

Half can't end on a defensive foul. It can end on an offensive foul, though.

Life after Brady-Manning?

Very interesting article, though perhaps too long to quote.

Though one good part:

Sundquist has a list of organizations that he feels have the stability and leadership to nurture a young quarterback into a truly special player: the Packers, Steelers, Giants and Patriots top that list. Spot a trend? They all have quarterbacks over 30, still playing well, tied to long-term contracts. The teams that can find and develop great quarterbacks have already found and developed theirs. Perhaps that's why there was such a dearth of young quarterback talent a few years ago: Disorganized organizations burned through prospects who might have turned out better if supported by better coaches and teammates.

The Panthers and Bengals have become highly stable organizations in recent years, which is one more reason Newton and Dalton have been allowed to blossom. The Raiders look much more prepared to give Carr what he needs than they were a few years ago. Lovie Smith is not exactly a quarterback guru, but he provides a no-nonsense culture that should help Winston develop. The Seahawks don't appear to have all the answers like they did two years ago, but they are still smart and Super Bowl-tested.

48 minutes ago, kurtsimonw said:

What's the official rule on substitutions? A few Bills fans on another forum complaining that the Pats went no huddle, but a few Pats players entered the field of play, which meant they put on the matching package of defenders. The Pats players then left the field and they snapped the ball quickly resulting in a penalty for Buffalo. 

Official Rules

Just looking at the rule, the Patriots exploited the fact that the rule hasn't been adjusted to account for no-huddle.