leviramsey

6 hours ago, BOF said:

Catch rule is mental. Because there isn't one. It's **** up. Every week in here we see controversy. There is no sane benchmark where that wasn't a catch. I was fully sure it would be reversed and couldn't believe when it wasn't. I don't suffer from myopia when I'm watching a game. It benefited us but it shouldn't have. Although I don't think it changed the outcome.

Listen, folks. I have about a 97 percent accuracy rate on these catch rulings. Here are the rules: 1) When in doubt, it's not a catch; 2) When even remotely questionable, the call will stand. It always works, give or take a Golden Tate touchdown. We just have to get over our individual ideas of some "pure" definition of a catch, as well as our love of going nutso on Twitter every time a call is semi-controversial.

That said, the NFL will change the rule to something equally unsatisfactory in the offseason, and we will all be back to square one.

You cannot call what Beyonce and Bruno Mars did to Coldplay "upstaging" when Coldplay worked so darn hard to blend into the background like the coffee-house soundtrack band they have always been. (There. I said it.) It reminds me of the old story of the 1950s Giants, who had Tom Landry coordinating defense and Vince Lombardi offense. When asked what he did, head coach Jim Lee Howell would say, "I inflate the footballs."

Coldplay inflated footballs at halftime.

2 minutes ago, Milfner said:

Oh man. Error after error after error.

Ends up being no worse than a punt.

Anthony Hopkins...

Still would though.

(Unless Jay-Z would kill me/have me killed)

James Brown could have put on a better halftime show tonight than Coldplay.

Halftime shows for the West Coast Super Bowls are normally shit becuase the sun is still out.

5 minutes ago, villa4europe said:

So far I wouldn't say either are...

Strange game in that it's been interesting so far because both offences have been so poor

10-4 edge on first downs...

Broncos offense is just not good enough.

3 minutes ago, Tegis said:

Was that really worth the last challenge?

It's not quite Andy Reid or Mike Martz.  It's defensible for it's potential effect on field position.

Good matriculation down the field.

Halftime show could be worse.

It could be Nickelback.

I've been told by the more Windowsy folks on my team that Mobaxterm is a pretty good ssh/sftp/X client for Windows.  Won't help if it's a firewall issue, of course.

The Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers reached Super Bowl 50 by way of two very different paths. To understand who will arrive at their destination, you have to understand the journey.

Four Years of Last-Ditch Efforts

John Elway faced a rapidly shrinking Super Bowl target at the end of last season.

The Broncos general manager/living legend had just watched his team endure an ugly 24-13 playoff loss to the Indianapolis Colts. The previous season, the Broncos' championship hopes were pulverized in a humiliating 43-8 loss to the Seattle Seahawks in the Super Bowl. The year before that, the Broncos suffered a fourth-quarter defensive lapse that allowed the Baltimore Ravens to force overtime and win a wild 38-35 divisional-round showdown in Denver.

Their 38-10 regular-season record over those three seasons was little consolation. Elway's Broncos kept getting stopped short of their goal, and that goal was starting to get further away. So Elway swapped out head coach John Fox in favor of Gary Kubiak.

"This is why we made the decision," Elway said Monday of the team's mutual parting of ways with Fox after last season. "We had a good regular season but struggled in the first round. So the goal—what our owner [Pat Bowlen] wants—is to win a championship. That's why the decision was made last year to go in a different direction."

It was the latest bold decision in four years of bold decisions. The Broncos took a risk on damaged-goods superstar Peyton Manning in 2012. It's easy to forget how daring that move was. We spent the 2012 offseason tracking Manning's flights from suitor to suitor, then spent the preseason watching every practice rep for signs of lost passing velocity.

After the Super Bowl XLVIII debacle, Elway invested heavily in his defense so it could ease the burden on the offense. The Broncos acquired DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib, T.J. Ward and others. These were expensive short-term investments, particularly Ware. Elway doubled down on the Manning window of opportunity in 2014, only to see Manning falter down the stretch.

Hiring Kubiak looked like a hedge against Manning's age; Elway even negotiated a few million dollars in cap relief from Manning himself. But it was really a triple down. Kubiak brought a system that would have shackled the young Manning but provided increased pass protection for the old Manning. His system was also friendly to Brock Osweiler when the fourth-year pro had to take the reins; Kubiak's scheme has always been friendly to young guys with cannon arms.

Most importantly, Kubiak came with defensive wingman Wade Phillips in tow to supercharge the defense.

Elway kept piling chips on the table for 2015 through August, when he signed veteran guard Evan Mathis for $2.5 million plus bonuses to spackle the offensive line.

He was like a homeowner in the last stages of a major renovation: Money doesn't matter anymore; just finish the damn job. It has been a remarkable four-year feat of short-term planning. Quick fixes rarely work in the NFL, but Elway kept using them to get lasting results.

After Super Bowl 50, Elway will likely find himself low on cap space, out of Manning encores and out of bold moves. The Broncos are in need of one last finishing kick. Elway must hope they did not use it to get past the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots in the playoffs.

Gettleman's Homestyle Cooking

Dave Gettleman did nothing this offseason.

No, that's not really true. The Panthers general manager popped some budget friendly free-agent tags, signing tackle Michael Oher and veteran cornerback Charles Tillman, bringing back Ted Ginn Jr. and making some other under-the-radar transactions.

But Gettleman stood mostly pat after his Panthers fell from 12-4 in 2013 to 7-8-1—though with a weird playoff coda—in 2014. Even when star wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin tore an ACL in training camp, leaving the Panthers receiving corps frighteningly thin, Gettleman stayed the course instead of calling Wes Welker or Terrell Owens or somebody.

Staying the course had been Gettleman's core philosophy since he arrived from the New York Giants in 2013 and inherited a head coach with a pair of losing seasons under his belt, a quarterback with a reputation (then earned) for immaturity and a salary-cap boondoggle.

Most general managers would start their tenures by making wholesale changes. Gettleman took a different approach.

"I just made up my mind that I was going to give everybody a chance," he said Monday.

It was a slow-building philosophy he said he learned as a scout for Marv Levy's great Buffalo Bills teams of the early 1990s, an approach that carried over to his tenure in the front office of the Super Bowl-winning Giants teams of 2007 and 2011.

"Just think about it," Gettleman said. "If you've got somebody working for you, and you fire him and bring the next guy in, how long is it gonna take you to train the next guy? It takes time. It doesn't happen overnight. In the time it takes to get the next guy ready, you lost three or six months."

Gettleman retained Rivera. He was forced to make some difficult cap decisions—releasing Steve Smith Sr., most notably—but he kept many holdovers from Marty Hurney's era as general manager. Jonathan Stewart, Greg Olsen, Charles Johnson, Thomas Davis, Dwan Edwards, Josh Norman, Ryan Kalil, Luke Kuechly and, of course, Cam Newton were already on the Panthers roster when Gettleman arrived.

Maybe young players like Newton, Kuechly and Norman would have developed under a different coaching staff. Gettleman didn't want to find out.

"More often than not, 99.9 percent of the time, the guy's going to come in with his offense and his defense," Gettleman said. "Now, can you fit? How much turnover are you going to have?"

Gettleman isn't conservative to a fault—the way Ted Thompson of the Green Bay Packers has become. The Panthers traded for pass-rusher Jared Allen to upgrade their defensive line after this season's strong start. They pulled veteran cornerback Cortland Finnegan off the waiver wire when Tillman and others were hurt in the secondary.

But like Thompson and the Bills and Giants executives he learned from, Gettleman takes a developmental approach to turning late-round picks into role players or, in the case of Norman, superstars. Gettleman admitted Wednesday to fearing that the Panthers took a step backward this year when Benjamin got hurt, saying he thought he entered training camp with an 11- or 12-win team but, "You'd have to be an idiot to think that" after such a major loss. Still, Gettleman opted to let Ginn and Devin Funchess grow into adjusted roles, a decision every bit as risky as Elway's pricey acquisitions—but in the opposite way.

It's a slow-cooking approach to roster management. On Sunday, as Newton might say, the collard greens are finally ready.

Ghosts of XLVIII

Elway's Broncos and Gettleman's Panthers provide a fascinating contrast in styles: urgency versus patience, Last Chance Saloon versus the Birth of a Dynasty.

Ironically, the team with the 39-year-old codger at quarterback is the hare, while the hyper-athletic, demonstrative Newton helms the tortoise.

It's easy to paint Super Bowl 50 as Manning's last gasp against Newton's first Super Bowl appearance of many to come. But as has been pointed out several times this week, Dan Marino never reached the Super Bowl again after his second season, and we have been counting Manning out since 2011.

Still, one look at the game tape, or the stat sheet, or just the trajectories of these franchises, leads to an inevitable conclusion: The Panthers are going to win Super Bowl 50.

That may be why the shadow of Super Bowl XLVIII looms over the Broncos—and over our perception of this game.

"What I hope—as a broadcaster who is doing the game both on radio and TV—all I want is a really good game like we got in [Super Bowl] XLIX," Boomer Esiason said early in the week. "I don't want what we saw in XLVIII, because if that happens, everybody loses interest, no matter how well Cam plays. I hope Peyton can keep it close."

But Boomer, what about Manning's experience, the lessons the Broncos learned two years ago and the urgency that comes with the specter of retirement?

"If Peyton were 27, I'd say yeah," Esiason said. "But he's going to be 40 [in March]. He's playing against an awesome defense—39 turnovers in the regular season, plus-20 turnover differential—he's got a lot of heavy lifting. And this is not the Peyton Manning offense. This is the Gary Kubiak offense that we saw in Houston. This is the Gary Kubiak offense that John Elway won a couple of Super Bowls with, but they don't have those same types of players. They don't have that offensive line. They don't have those types of running backs. You have a 39-year-old living-legacy quarterback going against a top-notch defense."

That's a pessimistic evaluation from an individual who knows his way around a Super Bowl and is in the business of being as balanced as possible. But it represents a majority opinion of just about everyone I have spoken to in the bleachers during Senior Bowl practices and in the aisles of Super Bowl radio row. It's the obvious conclusion no matter how much you dig and sift through the statistical matchups; the Broncos have some advantages (cornerbacks against receivers, special teams consistency), but the Panthers have all the big ones, like being the team capable of scoring more touchdowns and forcing more turnovers.

The Panthers are still improving. That's why they were so easy to misjudge all season. That's why Newton is still fighting his way through perceptions. They have so many key players—Newton, Kuechly, Norman, Kawann Short—who are still in the process of peaking. The Broncos are led by many players who are at or past their peak (with notable exceptions like Chris Harris Jr.).

No wonder this game feels like Super Bowl XLVIII: The Broncos are older and wiser than they were two years ago, but they are past the point where trading age for wisdom is a good thing. And they are facing a team so good that it doesn't know its own strength.

The Broncos must stack every possible advantage up to win this game. They need a strong performance from C.J. Anderson and a running game that has waxed and waned all season. They need the defense to play lights out (no problem) and penalty-free (more of a problem). They need Brandon McManus to turn short drives into long field goals. And, of course, they need Manning to throw each pass as if it's his last.

All the Panthers need to do to win this game is show up and be the Panthers. If that happens, this is a mismatch.

It's amazing that Elway, Manning and the Broncos remained this good for this long. For the second time in three years, however, they are about to give way to a rising powerhouse built from a newfangled offense around a millennial quarterback, but also built from some old-fashioned ideas of how to win a championship.

I've lumped on: Panthers -7, over 50.5, and under 38.5 (the last two are value plays; I think we either end up with a defensive struggle or a Panthers blowout).

The Rams are moving back to where they were when Rugeley started following them, though.

All it needs is for the provider of the VPN to know how to be their own CA.  Then it's just a case of signing a server certificate and distributing the CA's public key and signed client certificates to the users (e.g. through an installer).

It's trivial to secure an OpenVPN-based VPN from MITM, though it does require setting up one's own CA.

Whether any of the commercial VPN providers do that is another question entirely.

I think the best comparison is with Super Bowl V.

The Colts made it to the game with a legendary QB who was past his best days and prone to turnovers, but managed to win games with a defense that created turnovers and a backup QB who could come in and win a couple of games.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, came in after being playoff underachievers for a few years with a love 'em or hate 'em brashness.

It was a transitional Super Bowl: the AFL and NFL completed their merger that season.  The Dolphins and Steelers were just showing glimmers of being good for the first time.  Lombardi died right before the season started.  The game itself was filled with turnovers (a record 11, 7 by the winning Colts (a record for a winning team)) and punts.  The Colts won with a last minute FG, but the MVP was a Cowboys LB (the only losing player to win MVP), though he refused to accept the award.  Likewise, Colts DT Bubba Smith refused to ever wear his ring due to how terribly the Colts played.

12 hours ago, BOF said:

The recent swapping of the Pro Bowl and Superbowl is a God-send for the likes of Manning who will need the extra week to rest up.

The Super Bowl has (with rare exceptions when the calendar would put the game into February or force week 1 to Labor Day weekend) normally been two weeks after the conference championships.

Gostkowski's record for consecutive makes is safe for a long time.

Tanier's previews

Brady-Manning I did not have that much to do with Tom Brady. Oh sure, it was Brady's first start, but he completed just 13 passes in that historic 44-13 victory. Ty Law and Otis Smith returned interceptions for touchdowns. Brady's longest completion of the game was a screen-and-run by Antowain Smith, who provided 152 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns that day.

The young Brady was a system quarterback bulwarked by a great defense and a ball-control offense.

On Sunday, in what could be Manning's final start, your buddy Fate has turned the tables. Manning now has the defense that provides return touchdowns: five of them this year, plus a punt return touchdown. Manning also has the kicker with semi-divine powers. I didn't need to apply any English to Brandon McManus' pre-halftime sidewinder last week. Just as Brady was a no-name kid who needed the complete support of his teammates in 2001, Manning is the codger who needs to play within a system and let C.J. Anderson, Von Miller, the secondary and the Mile High home-field advantage rise to the occasion to win the day.

See how carefully fate stacked the deck? The Broncos defense is essentially at full strength, except for Chris Harris playing with a bum shoulder. (Brady's receiving corps is also nearly healthy, with Julian Edelman expected back from a late-game injury against the Chiefs. Brady-Manning XVII won't be primarily about injuries.) The Broncos defense is well-suited to stop the Patriots: Football Outsiders ranks them first in the NFL in many categories—but specifically in stopping the short passes that Brady uses to surgically eviscerate opponents. Manning gets all the advantages Brady received in 2001, because now he's the one who needs them.

I [(Fate) have] been toying with the Manning family since before Peyton was born. I doomed Archie to life as NFL history's most dignified, respected loser. I gave Eli Super Bowl rings in his brother's shadow but a life sentence in the New York media market. Poor Cooper Manning was relegated to civilian life as a successful businessman and family man instead of getting to spend his autumns being criticized by millions of total strangers. Wait…how is that a punishment? Nevermind.

Peyton has always been my favorite. Brady wears greatness the way Alexander the Great did. Manning, great as he is in his own right, is always more interesting when he trips 10 feet from the finish line. How could I resist nudging him into position for one final sprint? It's all I can do to not stick my foot out.

I have played all my hands. Fate doesn't determine the final outcome, folks; I just set up the board and watch like you do. Destiny is not the same thing as fate, and perhaps Manning is destined for one last laugh against Brady, one last opportunity to reshape his place in history. But ol' Fate has a feeling Manning missed his best chance, and that I will have to bide my time for the next decade or so by messing with Cam Newton.

Patriots 30, Broncos 24

The Cardinals gain 38.62 yards on their average offensive drive, the highest figure in the NFL. They allow just 27.62 yards per drive to their opponents, the fifth-lowest total in the NFL. (Drive stats are compiled for Football Outsiders by Jim Armstrong. All stats include regular-season games only.)

 

That means the Cardinals enjoy a net gain of 11.00 yards per drive over their opponents. That's the highest differential in the NFL by an amazingly wide margin. As the table shows, the Seahawks are in second place, the Panthers third, but the Cardinals net more than twice as many yards per drive as the next-best teams. They spend their games quickly backing opponents against the wall and pinning them there until the final gun.

 

The Cardinals' yards-per-drive differential is downright historic, as the next table shows. Armstrong and Football Outsiders have tracked drive statistics since 1997. The Cardinals have the sixth-highest figure in recorded history, placing them on a list with teams like the 2007 Patriots and the Greatest Show on Turf Rams.

 

It's an impressive list, though if you look closely you see just one Super Bowl winner. Yes, the 2007 Patriots and 2001 Rams lost Super Bowls by razor-thin margins. But there is also a pair of quirky teams on the table. The 2010 Chargers had some of the worst special teams ever for an otherwise championship-caliber team. They missed the playoffs due to blocked punts and Norv Turner's inability to win close games. The 2004 Broncos were just another very good Mike Shanahan Broncos team. Despite their ability to sustain drives and stymie opponents, they went just 10-6 and lost in the first round of the playoffs due to a minus-9 turnover differential. Jake Plummer threw 20 interceptions that year.

 

There's more to winning games, particularly playoff games, than moving the ball and keeping the opponent from moving the ball. Namely, there's special teams, turnover avoidance/generation and red-zone efficiency. The Cardinals have a big edge in net drive production, though the Panthers are very good in that category. Do the Panthers have enough other advantages to close that gap?

Special teams: The Cardinals have poor overall special teams. Opponents average 11.8 yards per punt return. Kicker Chandler Catanzaro was 0-for-2 beyond 50 yards this season and delivered many returnable kickoffs. Other than one David Johnson kickoff-return touchdown, they have gotten little from their return units.

The Panthers have allowed kick- and punt-return touchdowns this season but are more consistent in coverage, and Graham Gano is more reliable on field goals and kickoffs. Football Outsiders ranks the Panthers 23rd in the NFL on special teams, the Cardinals 29th. The Panthers have a small edge here.

Turnovers: The Panthers led the NFL in turnover differential with 39 takeaways and 19 giveaways for a net difference of plus-20. The Cardinals generated 33 turnovers but coughed up 24 for a net difference of plus-9.

When examining turnovers, it's always wise to look at fumbles that did not result in a change of possession, because once that ball is on the ground, anything can happen, and some teams just get lucky pouncing on their own mistakes.

The Cardinals and Panthers each cause a whopping number of total fumbles: 28 for the Panthers (15 recovered by the defense), 31 by the Cardinals (14 recovered by the defense). But the Panthers fumbled on offense 12 times, losing nine of them. The Cardinals fumbled 23 times but lost just 11. Palmer fumbled six times but lost only two of them, Newton five times but lost four. David Johnson has fumbled four times but lost just one. The Cardinals, quite frankly, have enjoyed a little luck in the bouncing-ball department.

Not only do the Panthers have a turnover edge, but they have a hidden one as well, because the Cardinals are more fumble prone than their giveaway totals suggest. This could be a significant advantage for the Panthers.

Red zone: According to the official NFL stats at NFLGSIS.com, the Panthers rank second in the NFL in red-zone efficiency and sixth in goal-to-goal efficiency. The Cardinals rank 12th and 14th in these categories. Flip over to defense, and the Panthers rank 10th and ninth in the NFL in preventing red-zone and goal-to-go touchdowns. The Cardinals rank 14th and 29th.

Circling back to those drive stats, the Cardinals led the league in yards per drive by a wide margin. But the Panthers led the league in points per drive, with 2.57. The Cardinals were second at 2.54. Considering the Cardinals traveled 11 yards further per drive, those numbers suggest that they have a nasty habit of cruising down the field and settling for a field goal, while the Panthers excel at milking touchdowns out of their possessions.

That's backed up by the tape. The Panthers have an option-flavored offense full of pistol formations, designed quarterback runs, designed fullback touches for bruiser Mike Tolbert and a robust role for tight end Greg Olsen. Near the goal line, they run their complete offense and can power the ball into the end zone a variety of ways.

The Cardinals are built to force your safeties to play 20 yards off the ball. They have no option package, no real fullback, journeyman tight ends and a rookie running back. When the defense can use the back of the end zone as a free safety, the Cardinals just aren't as dangerous.

Stack the advantages atop each other and it becomes clear how close this matchup really is. The Panthers reached 15-1 not just by riding the talents of their marquee stars (Newton, Olsen, Luke Kuechly, Josh Norman), but also by doing dozens of little things very well. The Cardinals blew opponents away with big plays on both sides of the ball, but they are average, at best, in the detail areas that tend to add up in late January.

So one of two things will happen Sunday:

• The Cardinals will score a few long touchdowns by attacking the weak links in the Panthers secondary (every cornerback but Norman) with their five-headed receiving corps, take running and options out of the Panthers playbook, and spark a rout.
• Or the Panthers will peck away at the Cardinals with field position and offensive balance, hold the Cardinals to some field goals, set up short touchdown drives with turnovers and hold on for dear life in the fourth quarter the way they so often do.

Either scenario feels equally likely. Game Previews is going with the second one, but we won't be shocked if the first one unfolds Sunday night.

Panthers 26, Cardinals 24

NFL player contracts are irrelevant in the playoffs, as postseason pay comes from the league, not the team. Pay is identical—and relatively small—for every player, regardless of impact on team performance. These are the (cumulative) per-player payouts this year.

• Wild card round (division winner): $25,000
• Wild card round (wild card team): $23,000
• Divisional round: $25,000
• Conference championships: $46,000
• Super Bowl (loser): $51,000
• Super Bowl (winner): $102,000

Note that teams earning a bye week for the first round—Panthers, Cardinals, Broncos and Patriots—were not paid for that week of practice. Let’s now compare that to a couple of examples of regular-season pay.

Peyton Manning is actually one of the few players in the NFL with postseason incentives in his contract—a $2 million incentive for both winning this weekend’s AFC Championship and for winning the Super Bowl. Manning only has those incentives due to the fact that replaced a secure $4 million his scheduled $19 million salary in a negotiated pay cut. Taking his revised salary of $15 million, here is his pay for the last four weeks, the final three weeks of the regular season and the first three weeks of the postseason:

• Weeks 15, 16, 17: $882,000 per week
• Week 18 (Wild Card): $0
• Week 19 (Divisional): $25,000
• Week 20 (Conference): $46,000

Thus, Manning made $2.646 million for the last three regular-season games and 2.7% of that ($71,000) for his current playoff run, for which the most he can make (minus incentives) is $173,000.

Going beyond a franchise quarterback, here are the four-week earnings of Richard Sherman, top cornerback and fellow columnist at The MMQB, whose 2015 salary was $10 million:

• Weeks 15, 16, 17: $588,000 per week
• Week 18: $23,000
• Week 19: $25,000

Thus, Sherman made $1.178 million for the last two regular-season games and 4% of that, $48,000, for his two playoff games.

Even a player making the lowest salary allowed, the NFL minimum of $435,000, made almost $26,000 per week this season, still more than any player in the postseason made in the Wild-Card or Divisional playoff round.

6 hours ago, Brumerican said:

We are going to go all out on Defense in FA and the draft. ( We have a mountain of cap space ) Even a slight improvement on that side of the ball will have us competing in the AFC South.  We would have won it this year if we had a kicker FFS.

Bortles

A ROB

Allen Burnz

Julius Thomas

TJ Yeldon

The offense is legit. Just need to get them on the field more often.

Not to mention, with the dumpster fire that is the Titans, playing the AFC South means a playoff berth isn't out of the question.

The reason QBs kneel in the victory formation to end a game

That was the culmination of the worst 15 years in Giants history, and the fans immediately began protests at the stadium.  That offseason, the Giants brought in their first GM (owner Wellington Mara had filled that role since the 30s) and hired Bill Parcells as an assistant coach.

That's the dark side of not taking sacks...