KentVillan

1 minute ago, villalad21 said:

So why did we only have 2 wins out of 13 games without Jack?

We had 7 draws as well... half the squad were signed in January... we had other injuries... and all the other stuff we've been repeating ad nauseam on this thread, but you seem determined to ignore?

14 hours ago, Dave J said:

I think you are right - we are dependent on Jack - be this as a result of his creativity with a football  or even from a psychological perspective from the team - but it's plain to see imo.

Every club in this league misses a fit Jack again imo 

Yes, and that's the point. Of course we are a much, much, much better team with Jack in the side, because he is the best player in the division.

But to say "DS is dependent on Jack" is nonsense (I know you're not saying this, but others have). DS had loads of other stuff to sort out, and he has mostly achieved that. We now look solid defensively -- his critics said DS teams always shipped goals. We regularly dominate the shot count -- his critics said DS teams dominate possession with no end product. These improvements were happening well before Jack returned.

Now we've thrown Jack back into the mix, and we're playing some of the best football I've seen at Villa for years, with good game management and end product on top of attractive football.

DS's influence on Jack shouldn't be underestimated, anyway. In a fairly short space of time, he has converted Jack from a Number 10 to a much deeper central midfielder who is able to influence every phase of the game. I don't remember any other manager getting this kind of tune out of him. Unfortunately, that's why he now leaves a bigger hole in the team when he's injured.

Jack is an unusual player. Most fast, technical players don't have the mental attributes to play in centre mid; most players who know how to play centre mid don't have Jack's technical and athletic attributes. That isn't just within the Villa squad, but across football more generally. A genuine like-for-like replacement for Jack is going to cost £££ and probably already plays at a higher level.

So DS needs to have two completely different systems, depending on whether Jack's available, or he needs to find a like-for-like replacement. That's a big ask for a manager to sort out in half a season, with one January transfer window, while also fixing a leaky defence, trying to squeeze out results, etc. IMO he's done a decent job since he arrived, and as another poster said, is probably the best thing to happen to this club in years.

I don't buy this "Smith is dependent on Grealish" thing either. We're obviously a much better team with Jack playing, but DS was very unlucky with some of the results when Jack was out injured.

We still often dominated both possession and shot count - e.g. in all of these games where we only got 5 points:

• Preston (A) 1-1
• QPR (H) 2-2
• Hull (H) 2-2
• Shef Utd (H) 3-3
• West Brom (H) 0-2
• Stoke (A) 1-1

DS definitely deserved more than 5 points out of that.

(Cue "bla bla it's a results business", "there's only one stat that matters", etc.)

22 hours ago, Hobbit Feet said:

Does anyone else find it strange that Jack is allowed by the club to wear such small shin pads and his socks so low? I know he’s always done it but he’s our prized asset, we’re paying x amount per week and we’ve seen how much his presence impacts the club. The amount of times he gets fouled you’d think he’d be more likely to get injured, his latest injury was a impact shin injury. It could potentially cost us millions if god forbid he got badly injured by either going up or selling him on? I saw Petrov write a comment on his post earlier saying pull your socks up which made me think about this. By the laws of the game you have to wear them so you could argue it’s the same as wearing PPE at work, I wouldn’t be allowed on site without a hard hat? Anyway not to be downbeat he’s still amazing and matured so much lately maybe he will decide to pull them up himself.

I don't think his shin pads are unusually small. He just wears his socks low, which is probably fine.

On the transfer debate, I wonder how much Euro 2020 will figure in his thinking? Spend a full season playing with Kane, Alli, Trippier, Dier, Winks, and Rose and surely you're in contention?

Returning to the shin injury thing - I wonder if he would also get a bit more protection in the Premier League. In the Championship, putting a few reducers in on Jack has become a bit of a cliche. I can't see that happening in the Premier League, where teams will be less scared of him, and the refereeing is a bit tighter.

Point is basically: we need to go up this year.

35 minutes ago, Stuartc445 said:

You do understand football don't you?  You do realise the scoreline is the only stat that'll determine where we end up in the league you can analyse the game all you want but the only thing that matters in football is we scored 1 to the oppositions 0.

Also for the record I have criticised Smith in the past and was right to do so when he made errors in our poor run but I will also praise him when he gets things right, which imo he did vs Blues, he didn't change the side that destroyed Derby which was the correct decision because it says that he'll pick on form and not just his favourites.  Whelan did a good job he kept things tight you say he could have cost us the game I don't see how because despite Blues having lots of the ball they didn't really do anything with it and we had the best of the chances.  Then when Blues had tired out he put McGinn on and they just didn't have the legs to deal with that.  Smith got the line up and sub spot on Vs Blues. 

 

In the long term, yes, the score is all that matters. In the short term, if you just use the score to measure the ability of a manager, you will miss a lot of the nuance -- was his team being dominated, was there an unlucky bounce, or a bad refereeing decision?

This focus on short-term results is how Alex McLeish has a Premier League Manager of the Month award.

You also seem completely deluded that Dean Smith's bad results have been mainly down to his bad decisions, and his good results mainly down to good decisions. That's a dramatic improvement over the course of a month isn't it? Or maybe, just maybe, football's more complicated than the "FFS PASS IT FORWARD" fans realise.

**** them. Player just back from injury and he's gone in to maim him. Braver ref would have given him a red.

Sadly, Paul Mitchell isn't the first thick, scummy, inbred word removed to violently assault Jack while he's looking the other way. Happens every **** game.

Doubt the charge will have any major consequences though? Small fine? Will pay for a nice evening out for the FA boys.

1 hour ago, villalad21 said:

Didn't we have 2 wins in 12 games without Jack? That's relegation form.

Our record was W2 D7 L4 Pts 13

Stretch that over a season and you have 46 points, which isn't relegation form. It's not great, but there were a lot of mitigating circumstances.

Take Nyland's blunders out of the equation, and you'd have been looking at more like 19 points, which would have you on ~67 points if stretched across a whole season - so around 10th/11th. As I said, "respectable" form - especially with your star player out. Even top managers go through spells like this when their squad is depleted.

(Also, this reminds me - why is everyone in football associated with Win % when you also get points for draws? If a manager has a depleted squad and is facing a close rival away from home, then a draw is an important result.)

1 hour ago, LondonVillian said:

Sorry to piss on the parade but I'm still not convinced by Smith - 3 good results doesnt make up for the 3 months of  dire tactics / results. 

We are very lucky to be back in with a chance of making the playoffs. My worry is that if Grealish leaves - he doesn't know how to get results without him. If we don't get promoted I think Grealish would be forced to leave for his career (hope he doesnt ofc)

Not saying that DS is awful willing to give him some more time but the jury is still out for me. 

It's not just 3 good results, though, is it? He's actually got a respectable record since he joined. All managers drop points when their star player gets injured. It's not like we were showing relegation form without Jack, but we had no natural replacement for him, and his absence exposed weaknesses in other players (especially Hourihane).

Several previous managers have had Grealish and better players across the squad, and haven't achieved this kind of form, so DS must be doing something right?

On 03/03/2019 at 01:57, KentVillan said:

UPDATED!

• 6. Derby County.........P 37 Pts 56 GD  +2
• 7. Bristol City.........P 36 Pts 55 GD  +7
• 8. Aston Villa..........P 37 Pts 54 GD +11
• 9. Preston North End....P 37 Pts 54 GD  +7
• 10. Nottingham Forest...P 37 Pts 53 GD  +8
• 11. Sheffield Wednesday.P 37 Pts 52 GD  -5

Fixtures (I've marked in red any team that were above Villa when I first did this):

• Derby County: ROT (H), BRE (A), BLA (A), BOL (H), BIR (A), QPR (H), BRI (A), SWA (A), WBA (H)
• Bristol City: SHU (A), MID (A), WIG (H), WBA (H), AST (A), REA (H), SHW (A), DER (H), MIL (A), HUL (A)
• Aston Villa: MID (H), BLA (H), SHW (A), ROT (A), BRI (H), BOL (A), MIL (H), LEE (A), NOR (H)
• Preston: BIR (H), REA (A), SHU (H), LEE (H), WBA (A), IPS (H), WIG (A), SHW (H), BRE (A)
• Nott Forest: IPS (A), SWA (H), ROT (A), SHW (A), BLA (H), SHU (A), MID (H), QPR (A), BOL (H)
• Shef Wed: BLA (H), STO (A), AST (H), NOT (H), LEE (A), NOR (A), BRI (H), PRE (A), QPR (H)

Updated race and fixtures. I can't see Wednesday doing it with -5 goal difference and that string of fixtures. They could definitely take points off us, though.

Bookies odds shortening massively again (top 6 finish on Betfair Market):

• Bristol 7/5
• Villa 19/10
• Derby 12/5

Factoring in bookies' margin, that's putting us on about 30-35% chance of 6th place I reckon. I actually think Bristol are overpriced because they have so many nasty fixtures, and am more worried about Derby, despite their form.

Betfair odds for Top 6 finish:

• Bristol 7/5
• Derby 19/10
• Forest 14/5
• Villa 3/1

Factoring in bookies' margin, I think that puts us on about a 15-20% chance of 6th place now. A lot shorter than it was a couple of weeks ago.

We're definitely in the mix.

And as for Dean Smith's PPG with Grealish - bear in mind he has also significantly improved the defence since he last had Grealish available (Axel's injury notwithstanding), so we could easily be looking at even higher than the 2.1 PPG mentioned above. The "tough" fixtures don't bother me, because several of them offer chances to take points off competitors for 6th place, and I think we're at our weakest in games we expect to win.

Summary: no, we probably won't go up. But it wouldn't be the craziest thing that's ever happened.

I think one of the most important roles of a DM is to hold the team's shape - always be available to receive passes at the back of an attack, or from short passes out from the defence, and be in a good position to tackle and intercept. Whelan does that pretty well imo, and certainly a lot better than anyone else we've tried in that position this season. He's calm receiving the ball under pressure, which you can't say for most of our midfielders.

On the flip side, I also agree that his pace and general signs of ageing make him a limited footballer. We need to look around for a younger, sharper DM this summer, but for now I think Smith is using him appropriately.

His immediate reaction to the pitch invader was an example of why we benefit from having him on the pitch. He immediately realised that there was a risk of one of our players getting sent off -- possibly even arrested -- and made sure that didn't happen. Imagine if one of our lads had been able to really swing a few punches at him and bust his face open or knock him out? Part of us wishes that had happened, but we know it wouldn't have ended well.

On 03/03/2019 at 01:57, KentVillan said:

 

• 6. Bristol City.........P 34 Pts 54 GD +8
• 7. Derby County.........P 35 Pts 54 GD +2
• 8. Small Heath Alliance.P 35 Pts 50 GD +8
• 9. Nottingham Forest....P 35 Pts 50 GD +7
• 10. Hull City...........P 35 Pts 50 GD +2
• 11. Aston Villa.........P 35 Pts 48 GD +8

Fixtures (I've marked in red any team above Villa):

• Bristol City: LEE (H), IPS (H), SHU (A), MID (A), WIG (H), WBA (H), AST (A), REA (H), SHW (A), DER (H), MIL (A), HUL (A)
• Derby County: SHW (H), STO (H), ROT (H), BRE (A), BLA (A), BOL (H), BIR (A), QPR (H), BRI (A), SWA (A), WBA (H)
• Small Heath: AST (A), MIL (H), PRE (A), WBA (A), LEE (H), SHU (H), IPS (A), DER (H), ROT (A), WIG (H), REA (A)
• Nott Forest: HUL (H), AST (H), IPS (A), SWA (H), ROT (A), SHW (A), BLA (H), SHU (A), MID (H), QPR (A), BOL (H)
• Hull City: NOT (A), NOR (A), QPR (H), IPS (A), REA (H), WIG (H), MID (A), WBA (A), SHU (H), SWA (A), BRI (H)
• Aston Villa: BIR (A), NOT (H), MID (H), BLA (H), SHW (A), ROT (A), BRI (H), BOL (A), MIL (H), LEE (A), NOR (H)

Just updated my previous post with the Derby-Wigan result.

If Bristol lose to Leeds, then you'd probably have Derby as favourites for 6th, because their run-in is so much easier. Betfair have got us at around 12/1 for 6th place, so it's unlikely for now.

Need Brucey to do us a huge favour on Saturday 

14 hours ago, Tomaszk said:

Laursen was right footed. You could even argue he was actually head-footed.

You're right, my memory was playing tricks on me.

21 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

You reckon it makes that much difference? I might be wrong but I bet the majority of CB pairings are both right footers. 

It does make a bit of a difference with the natural out ball, the switch / diagonal passes, and with recovery tackles (a right-footed RCB and a left-footed LCB will tend to hook the ball out towards touch).

Mellberg (right-footed) and Laursen (left-footed) was a good example. Edit: my memory is playing tricks on me. Laursen was right-footed.

But plenty of examples of successful same-footed partnerships:

• Vidic and Ferdinand both right-footed
• Terry and Carvalho both right-footed, but as we know, Terry was almost two-footed and usually played LCB
• Adams and Bould both right-footed
• Pique (right-footed) has mostly partnered other right-footers at Barcelona (Puyol, Toure, Mascherano)

I think it depends on the individual players. Some CBs have no strong preference, while others feel uncomfortable on the "wrong" side. I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.

19 hours ago, villalad21 said:

With 4 teams above us having a game in hand, you have to keep that in mind.

We're still miles off

Two of those teams are irrelevant (Sheff Utd and Middlesbrough). All that matters is sixth spot, and I think Bristol City can be caught (and will be caught by someone, because their fixtures are brutal).

• 6. Bristol City.........P 34 Pts 54 GD +8
• 7. Derby County.........P 34 Pts 51 GD +1
• 8. Small Heath Alliance.P 35 Pts 50 GD +8
• 9. Nottingham Forest....P 35 Pts 50 GD +7
• 10. Hull City...........P 35 Pts 50 GD +2
• 11. Aston Villa.........P 35 Pts 48 GD +8

Fixtures (I've marked in red any team above Villa):

• Bristol City: LEE (H), IPS (H), SHU (A), MID (A), WIG (H), WBA (H), AST (A), REA (H), SHW (A), DER (H), MIL (A), HUL (A)
• Derby County: WIG (H), SHW (H), STO (H), ROT (H), BRE (A), BLA (A), BOL (H), BIR (A), QPR (H), BRI (A), SWA (A), WBA (H)
• Small Heath: AST (A), MIL (H), PRE (A), WBA (A), LEE (H), SHU (H), IPS (A), DER (H), ROT (A), WIG (H), REA (A)
• Nott Forest: HUL (H), AST (H), IPS (A), SWA (H), ROT (A), SHW (A), BLA (H), SHU (A), MID (H), QPR (A), BOL (H)
• Hull City: NOT (A), NOR (A), QPR (H), IPS (A), REA (H), WIG (H), MID (A), WBA (A), SHU (H), SWA (A), BRI (H)
• Aston Villa: BIR (A), NOT (H), MID (H), BLA (H), SHW (A), ROT (A), BRI (H), BOL (A), MIL (H), LEE (A), NOR (H)

That looks like a lot of potential for points to be dropped - significantly more than the 6-point gap we need to close.

Bristol have 7 stinkers to look forward to.

Derby have by far the easiest run-in, but their squad has been decimated by injuries

We have three very tough games coming up, and if we can get 7 points from these then I think we have a chance. We then need to beat the teams below us, and win the six-pointer against Bristol. It's a very big ask, but I think it's doable. As others have mentioned, those last two games against Leeds and Norwich might be more winnable than they look if both teams have secured automatic promotion.

There's no like-for-like replacement for Jack in the squad, so him being out disrupts everything tactically. Hourihane doesn't like being the focus of the opposition press... when Jack's in the team, he gets more time on the ball to use his obvious talents. The whole thing just comes together better.

Should also point out:

• Bristol City losing 1-0 to Preston
• SHA losing 1-0 to Hull
• Forest losing 1-0 to Stoke

If these results stick then we are right back in the mix for 6th place.

Recent results for Bristol City mean 6th place is doable.

Bristol City have Leeds, Sheff Utd, Middlesbrough, and West Brom coming up in next few matches. Plenty of scope for more dropped points.

SHA, Derby and Forest are all within our sights already. So with Jack back, Hourihane seemingly back in form, and 11 matches to go, I don't think we should write off this season just yet.

12 minutes ago, jim said:

Because Brentford is a very different set up to Walsall, he was a small cog in a very large coaching team.

No doubt DS benefited from a very good setup at Brentford, and people tend to overstate the impact of individual managers and coaches on football clubs.

But calling him a "small cog" is ridiculous. He picks the team!

Also, it's DS's willingness to operate within this kind of structure that made him attractive to Villa. We don't want a manic egotist who demands full control, and then leaves a mess behind when they resign, or keeps attacking the board in the press. Remember how many expensive flops MON left to rot on the bench? Managers who have full control and no job security can't be trusted to sign and develop players for the long-term - it's too tempting to sign an expensive 30-year-old who'll give you a couple of good seasons before retiring, or to gamble on an injury-prone player because your job's on the line.

But on a matchday, there's no real difference between a head coach and an old-school manager. We can't just put all of Brentford's results down to Anybody-But-Smith.

It seems pretty obvious to me that if DS can get regular mid-table finishes with a small club like Brentford, then he can probably get somewhere near the top of the Championship with Villa. We have more money, more fans, etc. Even with FFP, loss of parachute payments, etc. etc. we're still in much better financial shape than most teams at this level.

These Barnsley fans all have Hourihane in their top 5 Barnsley midfielders of all-time!!?!?!: http://barnsleyfc.org.uk/threads/best-ever-barnsley-midfielders.273213/#post-2203785

Quote

2 - Conor Hourihane - Started out as a Howard/Butterfield, a number 10. Left as a complete midfielder. The definitive closest thing to Redfearn we've had since. By the time he departed (and we cried), his tackling and defensive skills were the stand-out moments for me, not the world-class set-pieces. A leader of men, ultra professional beyond belief, trust me. One of a kind. Seeing him lift that trophy at Wembley (Oxford) is my second favourite memory behind the '97 promotion.

So what has gone wrong? The player I see at Villa is a budget Gylfi Sigurdsson - very talented on set pieces, long shots, etc. but ineffective in open play. Good highlight reels, no tenacity, bad link-up play.

I don't think these fans can all be wrong. Of course, they mostly saw him in League One, but he did well for them in a decent chunk of a Championship season.

Before someone jumps in, I also don't think we can blame Smith here - Smith has started him in game after game, and tweaked the formation and selection several times to try and accommodate him. Most of the problems are mistakes and bad execution - misplaced passes, soft tackles, lack of tracking, etc.

I don't want to go too deep into his relationships or family life, but I don't think he has settled down yet, and has previously dated a Miss Britain who now appears on TOWIE. Is he easily distracted by the perks of being a footballer? Has someone screwed with his head? He wouldn't be the first footballer to go down that road.

So I just wonder if something is up with him mentally. Either he's decided he wants out very early into DS's tenure, or he's got some other issue going on that is affecting his play. We definitely haven't seen what those Barnsley fans have seen.

Whatever it is, I really hope he finds some form again soon.

Just watching JT on Sky's League Cup Final coverage, and he's talking like someone who has been discussing things behind the scenes with Chelsea staff and players. Think there's a strong chance of him getting involved next season. But as I said above, I don't think we can judge this until we have tangible evidence that he's neglecting his Villa duties.