Mandy Lifeboats

Stairs.

The situation in Bakhmut is getting very complicated. Wagner are trying to storm it but are also trying to encircle it. If Bakhmut were at the centre of clock the Russians control 11 to 7. Their attempt to encircle isn’t going well and they seemed happy to maintain their positions which gave them control over the main roads into Bakhmut. They hoped to cut off supplies. But……those pesky Ukrainians don’t play by the rules and have set up supply routes going across fields and aren’t using the roads. This has been surprisingly successful. But……the earth is hard and spring is coming. That will turn the fields to mud. But…….the mud will also make is hard for Russia to advance and keep its own troops supplied. Wagner loses have been immense and they are now being replaced by regular troops. But……..those troops are mainly infantry. Tanks don’t function well in Urban Areas and Ukraine has ample anti-tank weapons to take out lighter infantry vehicles. But…….tanks do work well in open fields. So what will happen next? Are tanks on the way? Will the regular army try to complete the encirclement using infantry? Will they risk a tank assault with the potential for massive loses on an already depleted force? Will the regular army try to storm the city? Will they just wait to see whether Ukraine can maintain the supply lines when the fields turn to mud? Will Russia launch massive air attacks and risk their air force being as degraded as their army?

I thought the same. But if you look on street view that building has some tall blocks right next to it. I guess the picture is where the body was found.

Did she have an alcohol problem caused by the menopause? Did she have dog?

Here we go again....... "Top Putin war official plunges 160 feet to her death from high-rise building" https://nypost.com/2023/02/16/top-putin-war-official-marine-yankina-plunges-to-her-death/

I was in court earlier in the week. A colleague alerted me to an amusing case. Mr X is 24 and lives at home with mom. He has a night out drinking with his girlfriend and they return to mom's house. It's 4am and they are peckish. So they both hop on mom's mobility scooter and head off for the local 24 hour McDonald's. He is driving. She is hanging on the back. They get to McDonald's and decide to park up next to a Police car with two officers enjoying a doughnut based snack. He falls off the scooter and then makes a joke about the officers food choices. They immediately arrest him for drink driving.

I am not suggesting she was pushed. I am saying that even if they find the body it will not stop loons coming up with bizarre theories.

Several people have posted that the Police's disclosure was well intentioned in order to stop people jumping to conclusions, taking inappropriate actions and protect the family from further intrusion. Saying that she was a menopausal alcoholic has not removed the possibility that her husband killed her because she was a menopausal alcoholic. The Police are pretty certain that she went into the river and there was no foul play. Maybe she googled "Suicide methods" or "How long does it take to drown" before she left home that day. Who knows? I doubt that finding the body will do anything to establish why she ended up in the river. Did she jump? Was she pushed. Loons believe the world is flat, the King is a lizard, and SHA are a football team. There is ample evidence to the contrary. Loons will continue to be loons. The Police have achieved nothing other than telling the world personal information that was neither relevant or necessary.

Next week the Police will explain that her haemorrhoids had been bleeding a lot recently.

Fantastic choice of words @sidcow

I can see no reason why it’s appropriate to disclose that she was menopausal or had alcohol problems. Even with the family’s consent it’s inexcusable. She is either dead or alive. The disclosure of her personal information will not help find her in either circumstance. It’s a desperate attempt by the Police to justify their actions and conclusions. It hasn’t stopped speculation. It hasn’t reduced interest in the case. It will not stop people on the internet posting bizarre theories.

Human Rights Act. Everyone has the right to privacy unless it's necessary to remove that right. If the Police believe she is in the water there is no reason to discuss any vulnerabilities in detail.

If my body is found in a remote location it is reasonable for the Police to state it was suicide or that "no other person was involved". It might even be reasonable to state I was depressed. If I go missing It's not reasonable to disclose my private life unless it will help ensure my safety. If I am a criminal and wanted for a crime its reasonable to disclose anything that leads to my apprehension. This could include my alcoholism, depression, description, areas I frequent, state of mind etc. There is no indication that she is a criminal. Nor do I see any reason why knowing she is menopausal and alcoholic will help ensure her safety. It could do the opposite.

The Policce are being criticised for concluding that she fell into the river without any indication that she did. That's unlikely for a perfectly healthy person, especially when the dog was dry. People are asking how they have formulated this opinion. By mentioning the drinking they are hinting that there was another factor.

Morally - yes. She didn't get the help she needed. Legally - no.

I honestly think it's a panic move to give credibility to the theory that she fell n the river. It serves no purpose.

Famous trivia question. The actor Peter Falk only had one eye. But did the character Columbo have one eye?

Why have the Police chosen to release information regarding her problems with alcohol? If she has a problem it's not going to help that it's now public knowledge. Nor would it help find her. She is not a criminal. She is either missing or a victim. Disclosing this information is inexcusable. Its an egregious breach of privacy that is completely unjustified. Data Protection and Human Rights only apply to the living. By making this statement it makes me think that the Police are confident that she's dead.

Why is no-one else talking about this? The dog is called "Atilla". He is a rare breed - A Burmese Assisted Suicide Spaniel. He gave a no comment interview to the Police. Local squirrels say that he has killed before.

Personnel costs are down. That's been the trend for years. Better equipment with fewer people. But the graph is really simple. When adjusted for inflation the latest spend available isn't anything special. There was a peak in the early 80s when we had to replace the equipment and ammunition expended in the Falklands. I am not defending this government, their policies or their spending. In my opinion our folly was paying for 2 aircraft carriers. We need 2 carriers like a fish needs a bicycle.

NATO has spent about 5% of its peacetime budget to support Ukraine. That 5% has ruined Russian armed forces and put them in a position where they will not be a major military power for the next 10 -15 years. Many people think Russia has lost 50% of its ability to wage war. That's money well spent in my opinion.

Here you go. "Uk Defence Expenditure" https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/defence-departmental-resources-2022/mod-departmental-resources-2022#defence-expenditure-outturn-over-time Figure 3 is the key graph. Adjusted for inflation our defence spending isn't particularly high.

This graph is a little confusing but sum up Russia's economic problems. The grey area is the highest and lowest Russian oil has been in recent times for every month of the year. 2022 saw the price steadily fall. 2023 has started worse than 2022. Those figures aren't disastrous (yet) but it shows a clear picture. Russia has lost its affluent customers and is now struggling to sell its oil without massive discounts. That's at a time when it needs huge amounts of money to build gas and oil infrastructure to serve its new customer, rebuild its military and replace the skilled workers who are dead, disabled or have disappeared abroad.

I honestly don't think this was the plan. Russia had no plans for a real fight. They thought Ukraine would capitulate immediately. They also thought that the West would accept the situation due to reliance upon Russian Gas. When that failed, there was no plan B. So they just did what history told them wou,d work. Bombard, show no mercy and force an end to the conflict by treaty that naturally would be in their favour. When that failed......er.......well..........um........let's carry on with the bombardment. That is why it's been such a disaster for Russia.

Wagner aren’t strictly conscripts. But many are volunteers from prison. Their contract is that they get freedom after serving for a period of time. Russia isn’t overly keen to have these murderers and rapists back in civilian society.