Silent_Bob

Well, relegation means loss of a lot of money which is somehow compensated through parachute payments. But it also means playing maybe a year without matchday income. But I don't think anyone is debating being relegated based on a normal season. It has more to do with being relegated without a fair chance of ensuring survival. There are six clubs trying to avoid relegation, three of them will succeed, three of them won't. Those that won't will potentially lose £200m. What we see now is a snapshot where our season is 73.6% done while the teams around us have completed 76.3% of their season. We would be outside the relegation zone if we won our game in hand. Yes, we are Aston Villa and if we do go down based on finishing the season in a fair way, well that's how it is. But it doesn't mean that we shouldn't insist on a fair chance of avoiding relegation. We shouldn't accept to be forced to play what's left just because some top teams want their money. Giving away the huge advantage of having 6 home games and only 4 away. And we shouldn't accept to play if player and staff safety isn't met. But it's not only that. It's more...how much effort will clubs with nothing to play for put in? How will their players cope with unimportant games played BCD during the summer? What will happen if someone get Covid19? This will also affect those a bit higher up on the table as well. I mean the entire Southampton or Newcastle squad can get this and then they will have to finish the league with kids. Yes, they do have a gap between the relegation zone right now, but they could be back in a relegation fight after just two more rounds. If they're not mentally prepared for that or have to play with kids, then who knows what might happen. Then you have the obvious questions concerning safety and there is also a next season which is much more important. For me this season is already ruined. There won't be a festival of football in June/July even if we avoid relegation. It will be a farce and one that will also do long term damage to the reputation of football. What will it look like if Kane, Kyle Walker, Van Dijk or Salah actually get Covid19 and die?

Good. He takes the moral high ground.

Well, to be fair...if the squads are tested and are negative, there is no reason for a 2 week isolation. It's more what if we have Jack, Mings and McGinn all testing positive and ruled out for the season, would that be fair? As long as they cancel relegations I think we should be ok if they decide to play. But it won't be the Premier League. It will be the £750m summer tournament which would be the preseason for 2020/21 and nothing else. Liverpool will play to get the points they have to get, and after that it's kids and squad players. The same goes for a lot of the other clubs as well. Especially if there is no relegation.

Well, that's what I call integrity. It means we will have 92 games which won' serve any purpose whatsoever, except making sure the PL get some cash. Can't wait until this Festival of football begins.

This season will be voided once it become obvious that they risk even more TV money if not next season go through as planned. There is no opportunity to play also next season well into July, which means there need to be room for domestic and european competitions, finish in good time before the Euros and some extra time as well, since it might be that there will be more Covid 19 issues during 2020/21. Which means 2020/21 need to start in August. Before that there need to be 3-4 weeks of proper training, 9 league games and time for a summer break and a preseason. So if the 2020/21 season start late August, preseason need to start late July or very early in August. Which means 2019/20 need to finish at the very latest around July 10th. To be able to do that, the league need to restart late May or very early in June. And if there should be at least three weeks of proper training, they need to start normal training within the next two weeks. That's a thight schedule and is only possible if there isn't an outbreak of Covid 19 in one or more squads. Then you have big question marks on if people think it's ok that they play BCD and big question marks if the players can accept to be exposed for the extra risk. So in my mind we are about 1-2 weeks away from voiding the season. They won't do it before it's obvious that that is the only choice.

Once the season is voided we would be qualified through alphabetical order.

Yes there is. Void the season, give Liverpool the title and all leagues get twice as many UCL spots than they usually do. No clubs get's automatic qualification for the group stage, there is one extra round of qualifiers. But use UEFA seedings, which means the best leagues get an advantage. No relegation, but all domestic leagues have two more teams next season. Each league decide by themselves who they promote. That means Sheffield United is in the UCL, although they need to quailfy for the group stages on behalf of some minor teams. UCL will probably have even more clubs from the big leagues, which I think UEFA would like.

FIFA medical chief recommend no more fotball until end of August. It's becoming more and more difficult to finish this season I think...

That list from Sky doesn't include loans. We will also lose Drinkwater and Reina.

Just a comment on the greed of the Premier League clubs. 33% of the clubs are actually loosing money as it is. Many clubs show a profit, but some of them only show a profit because their assets have a value. Those assets are mainly their squads. But if less money is paid into football, the value of their squads are reduced as well, because other clubs can't afford to pay the asking prices. In our society very few have enough money to pay for future expenses, as they plan to cover those with future income. If future income suddenly goes down to zero, then there is trouble. So I think greed maybe isn't the right word. I think panic is a better word. I'm sure the moral compass of everyone in football isn't completly broken, it's just that their survival depends on getting the cash in. I'm quite sure that everyone would think voiding the season would be the best idea as long as the Premier League itself went and borrowed the money and gave it to the clubs as they would have done if this season was a normal season. Then they could repay that loan by a slight decrease in TV money for the next few years, which all clubs probably would be able to adjust for. Then all what was lost was income from 4-5 home games and that's that.

But our owners might be having trouble themselves. They don't have their fortune in cash. The Adidas share price has gone down by 22% since three weeks ago. They might not have £100m in cash lying around to invest in us. I hope they do, as I'm sure there will be many possible bargains this summer as a lot of clubs will be short of cash.

No. That's the whole idea with herd immunity. A disease can't spred if a lot of people are immune, either through vaccination or through immunity after being sick themselves. It kind of dies down if around 50% is immune to it. One person, meeting 10 people will infect 10 if there is zero immunity. Only 5 if the immunity is 50%. Next step will se 25 people infected vs 50 if zero immunity. Next step will se 125 people infected vs 500 if zero immunity. Next step will se 625 vs 5000, 3125 vs 50K, 15625 vs 500K, 78K vs 5 millions and so on. Eventually the virus has no new hosts and it will end. But in reality you don't meet 10 strangers who then each meet 10 different people. A lot of this people will be the same people. So it was just a mathematical example.

I think you are partly right, but also partly wrong. In order to fight this virus there's more than one weapon that's being used. We can't lock society down until a vaccine is ready. That will take 12-18 months from now. In order to prevent the health service from a complete breakdown, it's important to buy time by reducing the ratio that people spread the virus. If it's 3:1 then one person means three the week after, nine two weeks after, 27 three weeks after, 81 four weeks after, and so on. If that happens the healthservice will break down in a couple of weeks. Socitey won't be closed down until a vaccine is available, but herd immunity should also play a part. Which means we actually need people becoming sick, but only the right people. Those that won't die from it. And simultaniously they need to improve treatment, so that the amount of time people spend at hospitals is reduced. So it's likely buying time now, before lifting some, not all, restrictions on some groups of people that probably will survive. But people that are infected should still be in isolation, even if they only have mild symptoms. But people will still get sick. You can't play in the Premier League if you have corona, and even players will get it. And in a few weeks time there will be a lot of people infected, especially if restrictions are lifted. As far as I understand players haven't had normal training for a couple of weeks already. And that will continue for some time. To even consider playing some kind of Festival of Football with unfit footballers in July is just stupid. At best they are unfit since they haven't been training properly. At worst they will have had or is currently having a serious respiratory infection. Some of them might even die. It won't be a Festival of Football, it will be more like a Freak Show.

While I think you're mostly right, I doubt football in general would like a PR shitstorm if they break or are close to breaking health guidelines. Fair play is still something that people care about and to relegate clubs or let them qualify for UCL based on 29 games or 29 games, plus 9 played with unfit players behind closed doors. Should we survive, I still would feel a lot of sympathy for a club relegated if they had to play without key players due to corona, expired contracts or whatever. Sky hasn't got a licence to just print their own money. They need to sell a product that people actually want. And I very much doubt people want anything except a normal 20/21-season. That includes a preseason, where players actually get up to speed. And it includes a silly season which won't happen if the clubs find out in the middle of July which division and tournaments they should play in three weeks later. I think a normal preseason will be difficult enough as it is.

Olympics and Euros are major international events that will not take place behind closed doors, so maybe not fair to compare. But it gives an indication. I think the UEL and UCL qualification will solve itself by UEFA adding 1-2 extra rounds of qualifiers to allow teams outside the current top 4 to have a fair chance of qualification. One thing is which clubs will qualify from the Premier League, but football dosen't look likely to restart any time soon in Spain, Italy and Germany either. If these leagues are voided, then I think it will be easier to do it for the Premier League as well. They will face a lot of pressure if they insist on playing behind closed doors if it isn't in line with whatever health advise that exist at that time. If leagues below Premier League start to void their seasons, I think at least it decreases the likelyhood of us getting relegated. Who should be promoted from the Championship if their season is voided? And if that actually happens, why should the Premier League insist of playing close to 200 games behind closed gates just so Liverpool can win the title? I think the main concern is not having a winner and clubs qualified for UCL. Ultimatly it's the customer that will decide this. Do those that actually pay want a proper 20/21-season or not. The Premier League will be in a PR shitstorm if they don't follow health guidelines and insist on finishing a season if other major European leagues will be voided. When it gets closer to summer, people will start more to look forward to the next season. I think the majority would prefer as normal 20/21 season as possible, a silly season and so on rather than having to watch the 19/20 season in July, on telly, being finished with unfit and not motivated players.

Maybe. But why not start the season as we start any season? No point in ruining another season becuase this one is ruined.

What they CAN do is a kind of positive discrimination. And that is to add a round or two with UCL qualification. Which means teams high up on the table get a fair chance of qualifying. They could also choose to promote teams without relegating teams. But the best thing is to scrap this season and have a proper 2020/21 season. Even if it has to start with the opening games being played behind closed gates. Greed is on the side of voiding this season in exchange for a proper 20/21 season. But if they do it now it means refunding season ticket holders, refunding Sky etc. So greed is also on the side of not taking the obvious decision today, but play for time and pretend they will finish the season for the time being.

Why do you think it's their priority? I think what you're hearing now is a mix of people talking about things they know very little about (football pundits) and people saying what they have to say (Premier League officials). The problem Premier League is facing now is their sponsorship income and TV income. They can potentially be sued by Sky and a lot of others for voiding the season, which means a lot to them to avoid for obvious reasons. The problem they will face in the future is to be sued by clubs like ourselves if they decide to relegate with 10 games left or played under unfair circumstances. The easy way to avoid all of this is to wait for a while and claim force majeure when the time comes. And that is probably what will happen. And to be honest, I think they are much more concerned about the top end of the table than about the bottom end.

Well, it disadvantages us regardless if a game is to be played in July. Reina won't play and I doubt Heaton would be ready by then. It disadvantages us and quite a lof of other clubs that we won't know which division we're in until perhaps late July. Should we cash in on Grealish to prepare ourselves for the Championship or should we spend another £100m on July 1st to have a chance of survival? Who knows which of our players will be unavailable due to Corona, who knows which of our opposition players will be unavailable? Maybe we're facing the Liverpool Youth team, maybe we need to rely on our Youth team to save us from relegation? Doesn't seem fair either way. But I doubt that there will be anything final on this for the time being. To much money involved, so it's easier to say it's postponed rather than voided.

Remember, they are football 'experts', not health experts. So far I have yet to see or hear a health expert saying we should re-start the football sesason in May. I hope nobody will play football just because the likes of Gary Neville think it's safe. I think at best they will play a couple of games so Liverpool can win it. And to be honest, I think they are far more concerned about having a winner than they are about relegations/promotions.

That's correct I think. They won't announce to the world on March 17th that the season will be voided. They are not health experts and can say little about what the situation will look like in June. And the same goes for everyone else. But it would look very strange if UEFA cancel their tournament based on domestic leages should be able to finish, and the very same day the FA and Premier League decide to void the season as they don't think they will be able to play games in June/July. But the season will be voided at some point in time as it will be impossible to finish it. They expect the Corona to reach epidemic stages in May, which means players will have it and whole squads might be in quarantine. The easy solution to this is to void the season, have the transfer window opened on July 1st and let everyone play 20/21 in the division they currently are in. That season should start when it's supposed to start, even if it means some early games would be played behind closed doors. They will have enough trouble as it is by organizing the 20/21 season and don't need to add another 10 games. However, they won't admit that today.

But even wealthy owners will be hit by this. Can you imagine sales of Adidas products going through the roof at this moment? There are not that many companies that can survive if their cash stream is turned of instantly. And that's what's happening in many industries. There will be less tourism and people will stay more at home, creating problems in other industries as well. With an uncertain situation, people will also be more careful with how they spend their money. What would happen to Villa if the owners run out of cash, we're relegated and have to play games behind closed doors? It's a worst case scenario of course, but clubs depening on wealthy owners could easily find that their owners don't have quite the same amount of cash to invest. What is needed now is stabilty. There will be economic long term effects on this Corona virus which is far more important than just getting a winner and relegating three clubs. Having said that, I think we're one of the more fortunate clubs because our owners have deep pockets. But they are also involved in other companies who might need a lot of cash.

Sorry, but spending the summer to finish the season won't work. Players are not immune to Corona, and there will be individual players and perhaps whole teams that can't play. That will influence both the strenght of the team and if a game can be played or not. Even if it's played behind closed doors. That's unfair. There is a summer transfer window to come. This is when players change their jobs. Should we spend like a Premier League club, only to start the season in the Championship? Should the transfer deadline be delayed? What about players with contracts expiring on July 1st? I think starting a season in August will be difficult enough, but by July 1st clubs and players should know which season they're supposed to start in. Do an extra playoff round or two to decide European qualification, void the season and let's hope that by July 1st the situation is as close to normal that clubs can prepare for a new season.

How hard can it be to bring players in? We are talking about a striker that will serve as backup until the end of the season. He can be old, he can be a loan he can be whatever. He just needs to be better than AEG as a striker. Even loaning Benteke and paying 100% of his wages between now and the end of the season would just cost around £2m.

I think we will be swooping from high altitude.