I voted for 2.
I think we'll see Giles Barnes come in as a new RM, seeing that Derby will most likely be relegated at the end of the season and thus will receive more for him now in January than what they will when they are playing in the Championship.
I also think that we will see a new striker before the end of the window, a striker similar to Carew, brought here as back-up instead of Harewood. No idea who it might be though! Maloney showed that he can play along side Carew at Stamford Bridge and will provide good enough cover in case Gabby gets injured, however Harewood doesn't.
I don't think we'll see a new right back this window, I think MO'N will see out the season with Mellberg & Gardner playing there, then get a new right back during the summer.