zak

1 hour ago, colhint said:

Not sure what to make of this but this is not what it says on UEFA

https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/028a-1a386150ed4b-322dff667686-1000--2024-25-uefa-champions-league-who-is-in-the-european-perfo/

don't really know how they got from the 88.1% to 82.5% but here's what they say!

So deffo wasn't an ideal draw

3 minutes ago, jayEm said:

Arsenal - Bayern in the CL quarter finals -- massive game for the coefficient surely?

I mean it's currently 88.1% chance premier league, so Germany need way more than Bayern win

4 minutes ago, TreeVillan said:

Oh god United are getting 5th aren't they?

Statistically unlikely (12.8%), so yeah they probably are

Ignore didn't imbed

41 minutes ago, nick76 said:

85% chance England according the stat dudes.

88.1% I believe 

3 hours ago, zak said:

West ham and Athletico has changed this. It's now 80% change Villa make Champions League.

 

Based on probability alone, Villa now have an 81.7% chance of playing in champions league next year

On 12/03/2024 at 18:42, zak said:

Based on this and the current odds Prem gets extra spot (64.9%) 

Villa currently have 71% chance of being in Champions League next season. So let's get behind the Villa, have trust in Emery.

 

Things are definitely not lost yet.

 

(Calc: 41% + (46.2% x 64.9%) = 71%)

West ham and Athletico has changed this. It's now 80% change Villa make Champions League.

On 11/03/2024 at 14:26, duke313 said:

 

Based on this and the current odds Prem gets extra spot (64.9%) 

Villa currently have 71% chance of being in Champions League next season. So let's get behind the Villa, have trust in Emery.

Things are definitely not lost yet.

(Calc: 41% + (46.2% x 64.9%) = 71%)

5 hours ago, Adam2003 said:

Although to be fair part of the reason the odds favour England is that we are favourites to win the Conference League…!

It's possible but the magnitude of the games don't matter, so a final is worth the same as any other game. If we get to the final, it is unlikely (but possible) that winning or losing woulld shift the coefficient one way or another

1 hour ago, tomav84 said:

When the European games start up again Bailey becomes an immediate rotation risk 

But if we are concentrating on the league, bailey starts league and others start European games?

So who is everyone dropping Jota for.

Can't decide between Luiz, Bailey and Hwang

I think I heard, odds that 5th place goes to UCL is 77% is that correct or am I making shit up?

11 minutes ago, DevonIsAPlaceOnEarth said:

Regardless of a late addition. Feel like we’ve done fantastic business. Kudos to the club, it doesn’t feel like there is any deadwood now.

Nah man, he went to West Ham

4 hours ago, BOF said:

People make a big deal about left-footed players as if they're so specialised, but right-footed players play on the left all the time. Equally, it's possible to have 2 left-footed players at centre back. It's rare, but only because it's statistically rare to have 2 left-footed centre backs fighting for starts in your squad. Not because lefties have some weird genetic blind spot.

I agree that I think people make a too big deal about it. However (likely) all right footers will have played on the left in their careers or before with another right footed partner. However it's highly likely a left footed player has never played on the right as they would have mostly had right footed partners.

For example, I'm a left handed padel player and I do not play on the left ever and so would be far more uncomfortable there than a right hander on the right. I don't even switch sides during serves, while 2 right handed players often do

2 minutes ago, Zhan_Zhuang said:

For those saying he's a DM, he looks like he has an all-round game.

The next Yaya

1 hour ago, duke313 said:

It's unbelievable the change he's implemented in such a short time.  You can actually see the difference on the pitch. With Carlos coming back and maybe 1 or two additions in January, he could have us firing by the end of Feb.

Im pretty sure after rupturing his achilles hes not coming back this season at least

I can way in here a bit as I'm always hoping for Sanson to get on. It's right in saying he hasn't done anything at Villa. But the thought process is he hasn't had the opportunity. He's shown a few flashes of being a smooth player but that's it.

He was a great player in France and came with big expectations. His manager quit after Sanson was sold from under him. 

 It's a little like if Bruno G was bought by Newcastle but then never played.

I'm not saying they're the same standard but Sanson was meant to be a real coup.

1 hour ago, El-Reacho said:

So it is Mancini then??

No Idea, I only know about AVB, and he's a no

3 minutes ago, El-Reacho said:

Hard pass for me on AVB. Bit of ‘Abramovich’s New Clothes’ about him getting the Chelsea job when he did. Not unlike Gerrard getting the Villa job.

Mancini would work for me. Would definitely signal that assurances have been made regarding transfer funds.

again, i can assure you all its not AVB

43 minutes ago, Sam3773 said:

I think there was always a risk in getting our heads in the clouds thinking about Poch and Tuchel. Anyone else looks amateur compared to those, but this is the market we’re shopping in. 

We can go experienced - your Dyches, Rodgers and perhaps AVBs of the world - or we go ‘up and coming’. 

To a certain degree ‘up and coming’ is what we’ve gone for in recent years. It worked with Deano. It didn’t work with Gerrard, but can we say he was employed as an ‘up and comer’, or rather a ‘mate of Purslow’?

Look at those names. Pochettino, came into this league via Southampton taking a punt on an ‘up and comer’. Why can’t we find one?

Nothing is a given though. Watford can attest to that! 

If we’re going ‘big’ and experienced’ but realistic, I’ve made no secret about my love for Emery. But I’d also be happy with AVB. 

I am never ITK about Aston Villa, except this time i do know it will not be AVB

6 hours ago, paul514 said:

Players from all over....

For example I tipped on here.....

Sangare before he moved to PSV for 6m
Koopmeiners before he moved to Atalanta for 9-11m
Kamara - now with us
Bailey - Now with us
Buendia - the summer before he joined us for nearly half the price he eventually moved to us.
Botman - Last summer
Sosa - 2 summers ago

Literally the list goes on, I'm not a professional scout, it isn't that hard and we are an attractive destination for foreign players and Championship players.

Right, and how many did you miss? Or are you 100% accurate 

My thoughts are, even if he wasn't holding out, I'd take the £20m. He has shown he is a great U23 player with loads of potential but wasn't anything special in seniors. There's many players who have been in a similar position and not made anything of themselves. I'll take the £20m, he could be ravel Morrison.

I'm genuinely interested in @sir_gary_cahill and @useless thoughts on this but don't have time to trawl. If you can be bothered please say them again, thanks