Amsterdam_Neil_D

27 minutes ago, pas5898 said:

They have withdrawn, but left hundreds or even thousands of soldiers in civilian clothing / moved into abandoned buildings. Russia has also shipped in many TV crews / reporters into the area.

Ukraine will seize control of the "abandoned" city, but "civilians" will be helpfully filmed by RTA and Russia today uprising against the Ukrainian barbarians as proof the "citizens" of Kherson are desperate to be a part of Russia.

This "plan" will only work if Russia has complete command and control of all the defensive positions and they are fully stocked with what they need with a known workable plan.

There is more chance they kill each other by mistake at the moment.  They are clueless,  the new guys are a waste of time.  Not even worth counting as a fighting asset.  Some of them have never shot the gun except a few goes before now.

7 minutes ago, bickster said:

Is Baldrick in charge of this plan?

Russian soldiers might surrender with pencils in their ears at this rate.

They are executing this war by the book,  unfortunately the books pages are in the wrong order and some are missing. 

5 minutes ago, pas5898 said:

They have withdrawn, but left hundreds or even thousands of soldiers in civilian clothing / moved into abandoned buildings. Russia has also shipped in many TV crews / reporters into the area.

Ukraine will seize control of the "abandoned" city, but "civilians" will be helpfully filmed by RTA and Russia today uprising against the Ukrainian barbarians as proof the "citizens" of Kherson are desperate to be a part of Russia.

Surround it & wait is all that can be done short term I think.  See what happens.

They know they are dead if they fight and dead if they don't.  Time to give them a way out maybe,  they have been left to die,  they must know this ?

8 minutes ago, Mr_Dogg said:

Was this their plan all along?

No,  they wanted it all.  Day 1 and 2 they landed paratroopers on an airfield close to Kiev,  didn't go well but they genuinely thought 3 or 4 days. 

That's why they dropped at the airport to ship in troops,  they never managed to hold the airport.  If they had done that properly it might have been all over.

They are just stealing people and looting,  that's what they will end up with ultimately.  They are done long term as a attacking force.  Hold or retreat is their only commands now I suspect,  their logistics are shattered.

1 minute ago, Mister_a said:

Depends on whether you fancy a nice cup of polonium tea for breakfast one of the days though, doesn't it.

I don't drink tea,  but I see what you mean.  

8 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Parts should be traceable.  Someone could get into serious trouble.

Even if they sold them to some unknown party it won't be acceptable.  Whoever is last in the line of the supply chain will be bricking it now.

I think it's called the Grey market where Russia removes all import laws on everything just to see what it can get.

As you say,  if stuff is found with Serial numbers on the Battlefield then they are in serious trouble.

I would create 200 honey pot companies around the world.  Ship them 10 of whatever (Iphones) as proof of passage and quality,  then sell them 10,000 DOA's,  get the Rubles they get nothing.

When it comes to chips and high value stuff this is a valid thing to do,  so for the big order we actually send them boxes and boxes of Oven Chips.  Waste their time and money.  Especially good to do when they really need a part for oil and gas and they are waiting for it to arrive or it all goes wrong.  Just scam them to death,  they are basically going cold turkey now,  capitalise on their desperation and make it worse.

3 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

So do we think the Ukrainians repeating their earlier tactic of absorbing attacks from defensive positions while degrading the enemy ahead of a counter assault? 

I was thinking they might do another "Thunder Run" (Think like Mad Max) but depends on the ground. This is what they did last time,  it worked too well if anything and they went too far.

15 hours ago, bickster said:

This Russian attack on Pavlivka in Donetsk sounds horrendous

It was childlike in its execution.  The town North which Ukraine hold 100% and have Artillery cover and are dug in.

Russia enters on the East side of the town 1st,  the East part have predominately roads that go North to South. 

This is in direct fire from Pavlivka as Ukraine can see right down the roads,  big tactical error (What way do the roads go).  When this went wrong they went West and at the same time tried to Attack Pavlivka across the fields (This is mental is Ukraine has guided Artillery,  they are literally in the open waiting for it).  This obviously failed with almost 100% loss across the fields.  

Pavlivka itself,  they will retreat as (Or die) they have no cover (Sparsely populated houses).   This has been over the last 5 or 6 days I think.

This was their big plan.  Absolute amateurs.  All Russia need to do is a concentrated attack with multiple groups in co-ordination with Air cover to give a 30% chance of success at a guess.  They can't even do that.  They genuinely look like they don't know what to do anymore.

The New Mobilized aren't totally stupid people,  they will turn on their Commanders any time now.

Oil news,  it represented 21 % of their GDP prior to the war at Sales of 3.5 million barrels a day.  It is now down to 2.9 and the majority they are selling to India,  China and Turkey at 35% discount.  Once the EU ban and price cap come into play then they are screwed.

4 hours ago, Davkaus said:

What's your inspiration for it?

Thanks for the great comments.  The inspiration or question was "If the Big Bang had a preview button,  what would the preview look like"

On 01/08/2013 at 14:08, ender4 said:

its taking over the world!

I disagree,  it's the Metaverse now  or Internet 2.0.

It's finished long term.  15 Billion on this so far. 

Legs are coming soon though the absolute knob head.

43 minutes ago, The_Steve said:

The ideal engine. 

"Ivor" ?

Just now, Designer1 said:

@Amsterdam_Neil_D

I really like that 

Thanks very much,  very nice of you mate.

Just now, duke313 said:

but there was no justification for McGinn starting every single week over him

100 % this,  no way should he start or have started as many games.

9 minutes ago, bickster said:

people keep saying that Russia will blow up the Dam

It provides the water to Crimea also,  they will leave it alone I think.  For now anyway,  scorched earth if they look to be losing it all I suppose.

(Can blowing up a Dam be called Scorched earth,  I don't know)

I just watched a video about the red bus and the associated claims broken down.

It wasn't anywhere near 350 million a week,  more like 180.  The total given to the EU a year was really loose change,  hardly anything. 

If the deficit has increased this is wiped out by interest payments ?

On 03/11/2022 at 09:17, villa4europe said:

what is the actual value of the blue tick?

I think it's partly a security system that should work to protect kids from imposters and evil people.

So,  parents and kids know the yare really following (Insert Marvel star for example) then they know its the real deal and not a Twitter user using the name as a method to talk to underage kids "Were you really in the film X" is fine as long as it doesn't get replied to from Bob in a caravan in Alabama using the same name.  If that makes sense ?

1 minute ago, Tom13 said:

Yeah, his lack of a footballing brain will just always hold him/us back IMO. It's frightening the lack of footballing IQ he has.

Not improved over time either with various coaches or managers.  

In the last few weeks Russia has tried to use long range weapons against the population with ever decreasing success (80% +) knock out rate now, with some areas with German hardware at 100% protection.  He has also tried throwing bodies at the problem,  this has also failed.  There is not much left to try,  I don't think they have many support vehicles left or with the supply routes they need.  They have lost the skies IMO also,  they have loads of planes but wont dare fly now.  They can't advance over the river so they are just waiting to die sitting there.  There are Ukraine Special forces active also behind Kherson making it eve more difficult as things blow up and they don't know how anyone knows the stuff is there. (SF direct Artillery to hidden Russia assets way into Russian controlled terrotory.

He may try to hold the line but it will just get hammered by precision artillery over time and will be destroyed,  they also ned to feed and supply the line,  all the time.  Even in peace time as an exercise,  I doubt Russia could do this effectivley even then,  under fire,  no chance.  I think they are done or very close to it.  What would they need to hold or advance,  I just don't think they have whatever that is anymore.

40 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

It never was. If Patton and some of the top generals on our side had actually gotten their way we'd have removed Stalin in 1945 and gotten Russia out of the totalitarian tail spin it's been doing since then. The Red Army was only good because of numbers and American aid.

The only thing that kept Soviet a superpower was the nuclear deterrent. 

And the countries that bought the oil and gas.  After 2014 its genuinely astonishing that they carried on with it.

The missiles fired by Russia are in some part paid for by the EU.  Noordstream 2 was never even allowed to be turned on as it would have been geo political suicide.

46 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Russia will still be able to export gas and oil in massive quantities.   They will still be able to import what they need in expertise and equipment. 

For the Oil and Gas,  they can't reduce the flow of wither of these.  The price may well be capped at some point also but they allready give China / India 30% approx. discount when the price was high (as China / India know they need to get rid).

Once the EU turn off the pipes,  then where does this (70%) of their Oil and Gas go to?  How do they get it there,  as in transport and in what form,  don't forget LNG is not an option at all at this point,   they are 95% geared up to deliver by pipes and any other transport has not been invested in or even thought about by Russia.  Pipes are no a solution here as they are mostly off.  Most of the Oil and Gas is in the Artic circle,  how do they move it to the markets they want to sell in and in what currency taking into account secondary sanctions will kick in at some point ? If they want to use shipping,  that seems perfectly logical apart from there are not enough ships in the world and they cant get insurance or dock anywhere.  Pipes or boats,  Russia will be a target for anyone going forward,  its all fine and dandy until someone blows the pipe or ship up.

They can't import the expertise and equipment they need for the oil and gas industry,  this is only true when the big western companies are involved.  If they could do it on there own they would do,  but  they cant and will never be able to do it.  If the US finds out you have sent parts to Russia you will encounter problems.   

43 minutes ago, sidcow said:

47 minutes ago, Genie said:

I expect his legacy in Russia will be that he was fighting the entire western world and put up a great fight.

Not if he's brought down from within. The new regime will want to paint him as an evil misguided despot to protect their own position in bringing him down. 

By the end of this war Russia will be finished economically.  No imports or exports (of any note).   I have a feeling it will be unworkable,  nobody will want it.  It has a chance the whole thing falls down,  all the little countries might just leave,  there is literally nothing to stop them anymore.

If you replace Putin,  what do you do ? No money and no investment chances at all.  No gas or oil to sell unless capped,  by sea.

Most if not all of anyone with a brain has left.  They can't do the Oil and Gas thing without western help anyway,  they don't have the tools or people to keep it going.

The Demographics of Russia means it was finished anyway,  the war just speeds it up.  

5 minutes ago, MessiWillSignForVilla said:

If you are an Asylum seeker you can not be penalised for the way you arrive in the country, they are a specific exemption to illegal immigration.

I am not saying I agree with it but that is the law as I understand it.

23 minutes ago, bickster said:

Putin is a monster. 

Agreed but he isn't that great at war which will ultimately be his downfall.

I cling to the hope that Ukraine break the line somewhere soon,  once they break through then it could be the start of the end.  Unfortunately a lot of people are going to die to achieve this.  Every single person on the battlefield has a family somewhere,  its sad in 2022 we are back to all this.