DJBOB

1 minute ago, duke313 said:

Our result and Palace show that there is no point in predicting fixtures, in this league anyone can beat anyone. Just take it one game at a time until we can’t be caught.

It also shows the improbability of winning 5/6 in a row at this stage in the season. We have done enough to secure top 5. 
 
Just a matter of whether we have enough in the tank to hold onto 4th. 

3 hours ago, Chindie said:

Netanyahu wants a war with Iran. The only thing that will prevent him retaliating is Washington pulling the leash.

Israel is a comparatively powerful nation militarily, they have weapons that are better than anything any of their enemies have and they have a lot of them, and they also have nuclear capability. Iran has nothing that can compare with Israel like for like, in advancement or ability, but they do have a lot of decent stuff - similar to Russia really. They don't have a lot in the shape of an air force though, and instead focused on missile development, which are fairly good and they have loads of. Israel, however, has the most advanced missile defence in the world, and Iran would need to overwhelm it to hurt them, which would require a huge massed attack which invariably would also include Hezbollah and other proxies also coordinating attacks to assist. Even so it would be a big ask to significantly harm Israel and the attempt even in doing so would essentially guarantee the end of the Iranian regime - such an attack would force the US and other Israeli allies to retaliate as well which would quickly turn into 'solving the Iranian problem' that's been rumbling since 1980, which would quickly become a debacle bigger than Iraq has ever been because it would it chuck the balance of the Middle East in the bin and you'd have a very large and still influential even when hobbled nation turned into a huge vacuum. And it would cause issues with existing relationships as an Iran brought in from the cold is a very different prospect to now. But it would draw a line under Iranian provocation directly and greatly harm a long term Israeli threat.

2 hours ago, magnkarl said:

I agree, I just don't think it would even need to be a war. The US could bomb Iran's proxies to pieces and dismantle them with ease. A bully thinks you being in pain is funny, someone needs to make sure the bully feels the pain it is causing.

It brings us back to the point about NATO needing Europe to step up. The US are proving an unstable, fascist-infested (maga) mess. It doesn't feel like Uncle Sam cares about democracy and freedom anymore. If China is so dangerous to the US, the US sure isn't giving China many reasons not to invade Taiwan. Biden might trot out his stern language. Scary.

The answer against taking unilateral action may be in @Chindie’s post about the simmering Iran problem, which is not exclusively Israel and the US but also the Saudi’s and UAE. That other nations participated in the defense of Israel whether it’s through radar or information is very significant in the larger scope of cooperation.

The more dangerous actor in all this may be Israel who may take unilateral action to defend themselves. Iran, while encouraging this whole disaster through proxies, knows they cannot win through conventional warfare. 
 
The longer game is reminiscent of a Cold War type effort of proxy wars and maintaining alliances and weapon suprematism. But it’s not exactly a selling message to say, “Wait Iran out, form alliances with your traditional enemies, and then watch them collapse internally.”

 
 After all, the genesis of this current near world war is Iran trying to stop Israel from normalizing relations with the Saudis. 

2 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

I don't get Washington's stance here. Iran is the US' enemy, Israel is essentially willing to do the US' dirty work here, yet the US are holding them back? If this is how much chaos America is going to tolerate Iran causing (boarding ships, stopping shipping, bombing US allies using proxies ++) then what will they allow when or if Iran gets the bomb?

It all feels a bit like the US isn't sure what to do. Iran is essentially getting rewarded by being a massive bully, they've orchestrated the Hamas attack, fed weapons to proxies which have been used to bomb US troops and ships abroad. What more do Iran need to do before the US knocks them properly on the nose?

I presume this all leads back to the US election and Biden being afraid of being seen as too close to Israel. I can't remember a US president more afraid of putting a nation like Iran in its place than Biden.

I wouldn’t presume that this is all Biden led. It has been - since the twin catastrophes of Afghanistan/Iraq - to at all possible - de-escalate and do nothing that will involve US overt commitment, but provide arms in any way possible. 
 
This testing of the waters by both Iran and previously Russia is on the same axis of coordination. You are right that the US essentially is telegraphing their lack of desire in participating in a war while maintaining a “don’t do that”

Instead of speak softly and carry a big stick, it is, “You better not or else we might provide more arms.”

From Obama to Trump to Biden, there is an unwillingness to get drawn to direct conflict but a willingness (to some degree as we’re seeing in Ukraine) to provide arms. 
 
It is an interesting paradigm overall as the US electorate does not want a war but this obvious lack of commitment has emboldened the Russia’s and Iran’s to continue poking and prodding without fear of a true reprisal. 
 
Because a true US reprisal is WW3 and contrary to the commonplace thought, the US electorate does not want war. 

2 minutes ago, TRO said:

Yeah....but their progress, is limiting them.....That's a future target for us.

We have seen how much Rice, has protected Arsenals back line...and West ham have conceded more after 32 games compared with last season.

To me, it indicates the value of the CDM....having one in Kamara, needs to be rectified.....as we miss him dearly.

Well I think being able to afford one of the best CDM’s in the world would improve the side. 
 
We agree on that. 

United are shit and won’t finish 5th

Newcastle have the second largest home/away split in the league and have Palace/Burnley/United/Brentford away. 
 
 

And I thought we had a poor defense!

The situation isn’t 1:1 and we’re in a better situation with our players but look what happened after it fell apart with MON. 
 
It’s not the end of the world if we don’t make it but let’s not pretend it won’t be a big help if we make UCL. 

20 minutes ago, Mantis said:

Was sat in the middle of the Trinity last night so had a clear view of Unai and noticed that when we were 1-0 up in the first half and having a few chances (but not converting them) he just looked really pissed off and agitated, despite the crowd at the time being in good spirits. You really get the sense that he's genuinely not happy unless we're about 4 or 5 goals up.

Probably recognized the big gaps in our shape and knew we needed at least 2, but probably 3 or 4 to make sure we were comfortable.

8 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

Agreed. It’s a weird one for me is the UCL. I almost care more about what comes with qualification than the tournament itself. I mean, I couldn’t tell you the last time I watched a CL game that wasn’t the final - and I miss most of those too. 

Everybody knows there is the potential for us to be very borderline when it comes to FFP this summer and there is talk that we may need to lose a player or two to stay compliant. Nobody can argue against the financial boost the CL will give us and Id feel a lot more secure as a fan knowing we have that money and we may not need to sell players in order to compete with the big boys. Or certainly forced to sell anyway. 

Our revenue is poor and our wage bill is high. If we go out in the group stages, fine, but the cash that comes with qualification is so important in our trajectory. Its fundamental.

From a fan perspective, given we’ll be in the lowest pot, there will be some great days out to look forward to. Madrid, Bayern, Barca, PSG - home and away. Even if we only qualify once, it would be great for the fans to experience the chance to see these teams play Villa.

For me, I’ll be devastated if we don’t qualify. I feel there is much riding on it. 

Yeah we always say Villa are a big club and sleeping giants, but going away to Qarabag or LASK isn't exactly prestigious.

There's still your Shakhtar's of the champions league but with us being low in the pot - we would be in for some blockbusters. Who doesn't want to see Villa vs Bayern again?

I wouldn't necessarily say it was devastating if we didn't make UCL, but I really think people underplay the jump start of funds and recognition (especially with the new format) we could get if we qualified for UCL this year.

The good thing is that we're about halfway through dropping some of these atrocious contracts that have been signed over the years and have locked up long term futures of a lot of key players (Watkins/Emi/JJ/McGinn/Konas/Pau/Diaby). Unai doesn't like operating with a huge squad anyway and likes to give youth a chance so Europa league is not the end of the world.

If we can find a way to move a lot of the dead wood and high wages (sorry Digne!), then I think we can still make 1 or 2 astute signings in the summer.

If you had asked me 3 years ago if there was a possibility that Real Madrid or Barcelona or either of the Milan clubs would be playing at VP next season, I would have called you absolutely delusional. But that's a real possibility now.

So imagine 3 years from now what we could do if we cut the line into UCL and what kind of players Unai could attract and build around. Europa League would still be good and give us a chance at the competition, but I want to reiterate that Unai puts us in a way better position to maintain UCL and continue gaining ground as compared to Howe or Reneiri with Newcastle and Leicester.

3 hours ago, HKP90 said:

Bit of a counterpoint here, and I absolutely love Ollie, but I thought his decision making was lacking a bit last night. There were a few times when he made the wrong choice. The obvious one was the cut back on the left where Ginny was wide open for a tap in and he shot wide. There was another as well where he drove toward the byline and put it in the side netting, when if he'd just held it for another second, support was steaming into the box. 

I don’t think that sort of awareness is really Ollie’s strength. He’s got a bit of tunnel vision for the goal. 
 
Mind you still joint top in assists for the league so he’s got awareness when it’s not on but I have a feeling once he decides to shoot, no one else is getting a pass. 

 Not bad Nanny

For the corner we gave away, I wonder if there was a mix up on who’s supposed to stand where. Typically, Ollie stands at that front corner of the 6 yard box and there’s 3 other zonal players around the 6 yard area with all others man marking. 
 
But for some reason McGinn was standing in the front post area and Duran was…on the post. Can’t imagine they wanted the tall striker standing on the line instead of where McGinn was supposed to be. 

4 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

So best case scenario now I assume is Bayern and Dortmund get knocked out next week?

Or Man. City get through and knock out Bayern themselves?

And we win the Conference league ourselves (or just get through to the SF).

The Italian teams don't really matter as they're the leaders but it would be good if one of them could stop Leverkusen winning the Europa league. Atalanta winning would be an amazing story for what they've achieved and the football they've played in the last five years and if they can win 3-0 at Anfield they won't have any fear of playing anyone else left. 

Roma are also vastly experienced squad and were penalties away from winning it last season so they'll be motivated enough so I think this might be the competition where Leverkusen fall short. West Ham could still win the home leg aswell even if they don't go through.

I think the best case realistic scenario is City, Arsenal, Atletico to go through. Almost a certainty at that point. 

4 minutes ago, omariqy said:

Right let's see where that leaves us.

Germany - 16.786

England - 16.750

Scenario 1 - Probably realistic best case given what has happened

1. Man City v Real Madrid - Man City Win and go through

2. Bayern v Arsenal - Arsenal draw and go through on pens

3. Dortmund v Ath Madrid - Dortmund win the game but Ath Madrid go through on pens

4. Atalanta v Liverpool - Liverpool win the tie but go out 

5. West Ham v Leverkusen - draw and West Ham out

6. Lille v Villa - Draw and Villa go through 

Points Totals

 

Outlook

The maximum Germany can get in this scenario is an additional 1.143 points. That is assuming Leverkusen win both Semi ties and win the final (assume they get a bonus point for winning the final).  That is 18.608 points. That would mean England would need to get 0.697 or (5.576/8) points to move ahead. The lowest maximum we would get from Man City v Arsenal assuming both ties are drawn is 5 points. So we would just need Villa to draw one leg in the Semi final to go through in that scenario. 

Scenario 2 - Probably realistic middle to worst case given what has happened

1. Man City v Real Madrid - Man City Win and go through

2. Bayern v Arsenal - Arsenal draw and go out on pens

3. Dortmund v Ath Madrid - Dortmund win the game and go through 

4. Atalanta v Liverpool - Liverpool win the tie but go out 

5. West Ham v Leverkusen - Leverkusen go through by winning the second leg as well

6. Lille v Villa - Draw and Villa go through 

Points Totals

Outlook

This is where we are relying on us and Man City to get to the final and at least one of us to win it. Assume Leverkusen get to the final by drawing one leg, winning the other then win the final. Assume Dortmund lose both legs and go out. That would add 1 to their score (7 points divided by 7). Assume Bayern draw one leg against City i.e. 0.143 points. That leaves Germany on 19.037. Man City and Villa drawing one leg and winning the other adds another 1 point to ours (i.e 8 points divided by 8). So we are now on 18.661 with 2 English teams in the final. If Man City win and we lose then that is 3 points for England i.e. 0.375 points added - 19.036! We lose out by the barest of margins.

I don't think there is any point doing a scenario where Bayern, Dortmund, Leverkusen all go through and only City go through from the English sides. In that scenario it's done. 

So in the realistic middle to worse case, us and City would both have to win to secure the 5th spot? 
 
@Delphinho123 dream scenario 

Oddly enough, I’m strangely optimistic about the away match up. 
 
Lille are a club that want to play football but Unai refused to let them get into a rhythm with a pretty high trap and the return of the aggressive offside line. 
 
Yes - they had the run at Emi a few times but that’s why it helps to have a world class keeper. 
 
I think it’s to our advantage that Lille continue trying to play progressive football.  

Oddly enough, I’m strangely optimistic about the away match up. 
 
Lille are a club that want to play football but Unai refused to let them get into a rhythm with a pretty high trap and the return of the aggressive offside line. 
 
Yes - they had the run at Emi a few times but that’s why it helps to have a world class keeper. 
 
I think it’s to our advantage that Lille continue trying to play progressive football.  

Sadly enough @Delphinho123 is probably right. 
 
The cosmos is lining up that we have to win in Athens to make the UCL. 
 
The biggest moments require the biggest players. 

Little moment there but really good from Watkins to win a throw he had no right in doing so.

Just now, StefanAVFC said:

Who is supposed to be marking him? Bailey?

I don't think it's any one person's fault. But in general - far too narrow by Konsa. Him, Youri, and Diego are standing right next to each other with not one Lille player nearby.

100% a penalty

Incredible backheel by Ollie