DJBOB

I'd be very surprised to see Rico Lewis out on the pitch to face Vinicius. Akanji seems like a better bet.

Lille, I would say, will probably end up being the strongest side we face in this cup.

David, after a relatively slow start (7G+2A), is picking up steam in in 2024 (16G+3A) though 3G/3A were playing a much lower tier side in a cup match.

Chevalier is a very highly rated keeper.

Zhegrova will give Digne or Moreno a run for their money. Tiago Santos overlaps very well with him so our left side are going to have to be up for it. 

I think Unai will go with a slightly more conservative lineup and go in expecting a cagey match on both legs. The problem is the CM area. He needs McGinn in the center but also needs someone more defensively adept playing LM as well. I'm not sure if this will be during the home tie or the away tie but it wouldn't surprise me for Unai to play Moreno ahead of Digne. This is essentially how he ended the City match and mentioned that the last 30 minutes of the City match was for some 'practice'

Emi

Konsa Diego Pau Digne

Bailey McGinn Luiz Moreno

Tielemans Watkins

Might not play but could see him making the bench ala Diego at the end of last year. Even that would be a big boost to morale for everyone.

With only 3 away matches left - we're probably going to end up somewhere in 4th-8th in away form. Our xGD is 9th away (-4.5) which is a decent representation of us as we don't particularly blow away anyone away from home.

In comparison - we will end anywhere between 4th-7th in home form but our xGD is better at home in 6th place and positive (+11.2)

At the end of the day - our away form didn't end up being too poor. Only the title contenders have a positive xGD away which belies their strength in different areas. 

What's interesting is a sorted from highest GD between home and away - you can see the different clubs with a great home effect. I imagine Newcastle has something to do with travel.

1. Fulham - 30
2. Newcastle - 25
3. Villa - 19
4. Palace - 18
5. Brighton - 16
6. Luton - 14
7. Liverpool - 13

I mean let's be real.

It's Villa.

I've said it before - but I think it's still somehow going to come down to the last day either in the league or in conference league. It's not that unbelievable, we've taken the hard route both through promotion and surviving relegation.

It'll come down to either winning away at Palace on the last day of the league or somehow having to win the UECL final to get the final coefficient points for 5th place to qualify.

I can't imagine the VT meltdown if we have to win at Athens to get into the UCL and our first trophy in decades. 

22 minutes ago, Zatman said:

Its a bit embarrassing and worst of all some people have bought into some weird idea that this is a one time only shot. If we dont qualify we will never have a chance again

Champions League is not some miracle that automatically makes us elite. Spurs, Newcastle and Leicester in recent seasons prove that, even abroad Union Berlin have been a shambles since finishing 4th

I do think it will be significantly more difficult.

It's not a panacea to all problems, but again - we have to seize the chance in front of us.

Additionally - I think Unai is better than both Howe and Ranieri at managing multiple competitions, not to mention he has experience doing so.

For me - it is closer to Spurs making UCL and UEL than it is Newcastle (so far) and the Leicester flash in the pan.

10 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

We need another 5 points in my book. It then becomes virtually impossible for anybody to catch us. United as an example would need 17 points from 7 games. 5 wins and 2 draws or 6 wins. No chance.

2 wins Villa, 2 wins. Not even that. 
We should go all out to beat Bournemouth and we’re almost there!

I'm kind of in this boat now. And it might not be the purist way of competing every match but if we beat Bournemouth and Palace, then the best way we can help ourselves with 5th place is to go all in for conference league to keep picking up coefficient points because it's going to end up being very close.

3 minutes ago, Mic09 said:

Man U and Brentford alone would be 5 points? 

Man U loss (3 points) and Brentford draw (2 points). Unless the table considers we gained a point against Brentford as we were behind? 

This table was from last week. But the Brentford draw would bring us to 5 dropped points. But the Liverpool draw would bring them to 6.

Still top of the league and keeping the lead after this weekend’s results. 
 

33 minutes ago, Pinebro said:

Not the end of the world but the problem isn't going away be ignoring it.

Players getting complacent after a 2 goal lead needs to be adressed.

It’s really not. 
 
It reminds me of the same thing when our “away form” was the problem. 
 
It’s not really the problem. 
 
And similarly, I still believe we’re top in the league at NOT dropping points when ahead even after the Brentford result. 

Maybe we should start posting it this way. If Villa don’t win another match, United will need to win 4/7 to overtake us. 

5 hours ago, May-Z said:

Not sure you can say he was slow to react. It was only 9 minutes between all three goals. Neither was it an onslaught. They had three shots on target and they all came from crosses in that period. Wouldn't even say they had sustained pressure. 

Something went on down our right side. Not sure if they pushed Regullion higher up or if Konsa/Bailey just lost their way for ten minutes...I don't think there was really enough time between each goal for us to see a reaction from Emery even if he had tweaked something.

Pretty much all on the players shitting themselves.

 

The first one didn’t warrant a change. The second one, an almost carbon copy of the first, definitely warranted a change. That they were allowed to do the same trick 3 times in 10 minutes is a mistake, one that Unai alluded that he should have stopped. 
 
But at the same time, it wasn’t rocket science what Brentford were doing. And that same lack of vocal leadership that Ty had was ever missing there.

2 minutes ago, FLVillan said:

Playing him deeper reminds me of when Dean Smith used to play Hourihane in that role at home, then he would play Whelan away.  More ability to pick a pass from deep when we're on the front foot at home but a liability defensively when we're under pressure.  I think if we'd been away today it would have been McGinn or Tim alongside Luiz.  Not only are we missing the mobility and presence of Kamara, but also his instinctive tracking back into our own box to support the centre backs.... When the crosses came in for both Brentford's second and third goals it was 2v2, 1v1 with no tracking midfielders in sight.  Kamara would have been in there.  Tielemans simply doesn't have that mindset or instinct.  

The other part of our midfield that suffered today was no pressure on the ball in the wide areas, and I believe that's why Rogers was the first to be substituted.  Many don't see what Ramsey brings defensively, but so many times today in the second half horror-spell, Brentford players were picking passes at will to play in behind our defence.  

Yeah wholeheartedly agree. The remaining players need to step up but we had a stellar defensive record in the second half of last season. 
 
But we’re without Mings, Kamara, JJ, and Buendia - all key players during that run. All players who in some way, play with high intensity and defensive tenacity. 
 
Tielemans is not that. 

Slow to react to the Brentford onslaught once it got going. 
 
But he can’t play the match for these players. 

40 minutes ago, wishywashy said:

He's inherently a player that makes teams that are playing well even better (the ceiling): he's a huge threat in these situations and can unlock teams. But he can't really make the team play better (the floor) by himself, and he's definitely a liability when the team's on the backfoot. 

I think Emery made a mistake keeping him deep in the pivot with McGinn higher up the pitch once we went 2-0 up. It worked well enough in the first half against the low block, but that was never going to end well once Brentford started going for it and throwing everything at us. But that's just hindsight, really.

It was a masterstroke in the first half when Brentford were willing to sit back.

It was very clear as soon as the first goal from Brentford came in that he, Konsa, and Bailey were being targeted.

Continually - when asked to play a lot out of possession - we have been overrun with Tielemans in the middle.

4 hours ago, Villarocker said:

Who are we going to sell before we buy? 

Can't be Emi, Ollie, John, Pau. I think it'll be Dougie and or Jacob. 

Dougie makes the most logical sense unfortunately. 

1 minute ago, VillaChris said:

Most say Cash is rubbish in his thread even after he's had decent games.

Kons is a good one on one defender when players are attacking with pace but he's average in all the other aspects from the RB position and second half showed it.

Interesting to see what the plan is going forward with the Serb lad coming in as really next season we need Konsa playing centrally as much as possible.

Yeah the problem is that he’s a CB. 
 
And he plays like a CB even at RB. Tends to drift too narrow and doesn’t put an emphasis on blocking the cross. 

1 hour ago, duke313 said:

You should tell Pep and Arteta that.

Their “fullbacks” have a special set of skills that make them 50M+ transfers. 
 
Konsa can neither invert to CDM and is very so so on the overlap. 
 
As a purely defensive RB, he’s usually okay but his best position is CB. 

3 hours ago, M_Afro said:

What are the general thoughts on Youri? I’m torn to be honest. He is a great player to have in the squad. He’s experienced and he is a lovely footballer. The flip side is he lacks any physical stature in a team that is fairly weak and he is our highest paid player! 
I think if we could get a good price and replace him with a more physical midfielder then I would be tempted to sell in the summer. Best case scenario I’d obviously keeping him and buying a couple of additional centre mids but I doubt FFP will allow that sadly.

When we have the ball, he’s key to making those incisive passes. 
 
When we don’t have the ball, he’s consistently been a liability when he’s in the double pivot. 
 
If we can hide him when he’s up top with Ollie, it’s forgivable. When we ask him to cover a lot of ground in the middle, it ends up with results like today or Legia away or Newcastle at home. 

Play centerbacks at center back. 

Tielemans in the double pivot showed the weaknesses that I’ve been worried about. 
 
Once Brentford realized this, they continually sent three people to that side and Youri had nowhere near enough legs to cover ground. 

Ollie’s right and leads by example. No matter the score - down, equal, ahead - he puts in the same amount of effort when others switch off as soon as they go ahead. 

Just now, Delphinho123 said:

Strong team. Really interesting that he’s played Rogers ahead of Diaby.

Expect Diaby is being eased back in and will see the last half hour. 

Brentford will just sit back playing terror ball and be overly physical. Diaby has been good but with zero space in the middle, would be best if we take the lead and when the match opens up if Brentford start chasing

Lineup looks very normal. No surprises. 
 
Back a big win here.