fruitvilla

This has been posted before ... it's worth a little bit of fun

The Political Compass

It gives a bit of an explanation of what it is about and a review of where it thinks politics is at in certain parts of the world.

I typically score -4, -4 or thereabouts. 

1 hour ago, Marka Ragnos said:

Jeez, I spelled it American-style on the poll.

I think both are correct in British English ... I tend to use center as in the center of a circle, but centre as in a shopping centre

6 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I voted Tory in every election till Boris took over. 

In my youth, I voted for Maggie, and promptly left the country the following January. The interesting thing when I left I was mildly conservative and when I landed in Johannesburg the next day I was a leftie.

These days I vote Liberal in a Canadian context. 

7 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Meh, spelling is just made up by the first guys that had pens and presses.

Actually, it is the uneducated that dictate spelling and grammar.

8 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

whether a U.S. centrist would be in the same place as a European centrist.

A European centrist would be a raving leftie in American politics.

Just now, Marka Ragnos said:

A friend of mine loved that book.

It's OK ... I'd give it three stars, but if you're interested in that kind of thing then I understand. The general takeaway was there's more to empathy than just thinking one can feel what another is feeling in a given situation. It's when people enjoy empathizing or get hooked on it, it gets dark, especially in negative situations.

I think this painting seems incredibly modern considering it was painted in the mid 1400s

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fouquet_Madonna.jpg 

This game exemplifies how a nil-nil draw in football can be entertaining. Chelsea might feel a bit aggrieved ... robbed by Martinez  ... such is life.

• 7/10 Cash I thought he had a really good game against a winger that obviously quicker than him
• 8/10 Konsa solid game
• 7/10 Lenglet
• 7/10 Moreno
• 7/10 Kamara I think Kamara and Luiz were off their game a little
• 7/10 Luiz
• 8/10 McGinn
• 6/10 Tielemans
• Diaby 5/10 Seemed to misread his team mates
• Watkins 6/10 Not as bad as made out. Despite the good individual play of the midfielders some howit did not gel and Ollie did not get the service.
• +9/10 Martinez

Just some thoughts.

Has anyone noticed how dysfunctional the matchday thread can be?

Just finished The Darker Sides of Empathy by Fritz Breithaupt. Apparently, empathy is not all it's cracked up to be. The book is a little technical, but I let parts wash over me.

1 hour ago, Zatman said:

you can in Europe

Dam Brexit.

9 hours ago, villa89 said:

wants a £30 ticket, a pie and a pint. 

Heaven

8 hours ago, villa89 said:

630K x 19 = £12m.

£150m / £12m = 12.5 years to pay off the new stand.

Even allowing for other revenue means you are still looking at minimum 8 - 10 years for the new stand to pay for itself and actually start making money for the club. 

Like I said, the numbers don't add up. 

The extra profit (not revenue) goes to paying off the interest first. Not the principal. If we could pay off the project in 8 to 10 years that would be a great achievement. So I agree with you it does not look like a great investment at this time ... unless a really cheap loan (2 %) could be secured over say twenty years. But no lender in their right minds would do this.

The question for me is how many of us would buy bonds say at 2.5% over twenty years to finance the new stand? It's in a good cause and for the benefit of Aston Villa.

5 hours ago, sidcow said:

5 hours ago, cheltenham_villa said:

the opportunity cost is also a good point. No club have built a stadium or stand and continued to invest in the team. Its one or the other. 

I mean, that is patently not true

I think the opportunity cost(s) comes to: does V Sports have other projects on the books with a better rate of return? 

5 hours ago, ThunderPower_14 said:

Then surely we apply Occam's Razor and deduce that the numbers don't add up as simply as you're saying.

My question would be where the data comes from, what the assumptions are, and the math behind it. I have to admit the replies so far have been far from convincing.

3 minutes ago, paul514 said:

There is no way a new stand wouldn't pay for itself if we borrowed the money to do it......

Can you go through your assumptions and math please?

4 minutes ago, paul514 said:

Yes I understand the rates but it wouldn’t be taken out today the base rate will be 3 by the end of the year.

I don't have any special insight here ... but according to The Times

Quote

.The Bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey, has repeatedly indicated rates will remain where they are for some time. December’s inflation rate increase, while small, could validate his concerns, and lead the committee to keep rates at their current level for longer.

The latest Monetary Policy report says rates are expected to remain around 5.25% until autumn 2024 and then decline gradually to 4.25% by the end of 2026.

Plus lenders/investors may have projects that have a higher payback than 5 %. NSWE would likely have to forkout some of the money themselves so are the returns higher than 5 % from their current investments? As yet I have not seen anyone do a ROI calculation either for the new stand or a pie in the sky new stadium.

So far women are head and shoulders better than Sunderland:

1. Faster
2. Stronger
3. More physical
4. More skillful
5. Tactically more astute
6. Better drilled

But apart from that not much in it.

13 hours ago, paul514 said:

5% would be an expensive loan on 1 billion, could probably get 3% in the coming couple of years.

Yes, it would be expensive. The current Bank of England rate is 5 % or thereabouts. Looks like it's heading lower. But lenders will tack on a percent or so. They will also look at the profitability of the project and the risks involved. So lenders (and V Sports) would have to assess (bet on) the coming British economy,  the sustained success of Villa on the pitch and general good financial management of V Sports.

1 hour ago, foreveryoung said:

The owners are billionaires, I'm sure they could secure the finance with a cheap loan.

How cheap, and why would anyone lend the owners any money below the market rate?

1 hour ago, Captain_Townsend said:

I don't honestly see what's controversial  about putting forward the argument that the best solution

I don't see any analyses that it is the best solution and even if it is a solution. If the project loses money how is it a solution?

54 minutes ago, thabucks said:

Interest payments alone would be £50+ mill per season before we even start paying down the actual £1 billion pounds plus it will cost for a new ground … Id love nothing better than a new ground but it’s not gunna happen. 

Yeah ... I agree with this line of reasoning. Initially, it will be +50 million but over the life of the loan it will average out to nearer 25 million a  year. And as I think you are suggesting plus we have to pay back the loan itself ... say 25 million a year over a twenty year life.

All this for an extra twenty-thousand capacity at a value of say at a value of 20 million a year?

The secret is to get a really cheap loan. Should the City of Birmingham tax payers (cf Everton) subsidize the Villa? Not that they are in a position to do so.

On 19/01/2024 at 08:36, nick76 said:

What does match day revenue include because just back of the envelope calcs means £16m is roughly £800k per home game at ~40k attendance is £20 per person.  Seems a low average considering tickets, corporate boxes, food, drink and programmes.  What am I missing? I may just be tired and not thinking straight.

This is exactly the way I approach this conundrum. Assuming with this season's price hikes, which did not go down well, we are at very optimistically at 25 million revenue. Adding 20% capacity will barely bring us to 30 million matchday revenue.

There's something else going on. 

Just now, Captain_Townsend said:

If they had stuck with plan A we would be half way there in 2026 instead of being nowhere there in 2026.

Do you have any financial numbers to back this up?

1 hour ago, OutByEaster? said:

I don't think we've stopped because we're 'more ambitious' in terms of the stadium, I think we've stopped because our ambitions are focused on other things

I suspect we stopped because it does not make financial sense at this time. A back of the envelope calculation comes to about 13 000 pounds a seat for increasing the capacity to 50 000. This assumes a100 million rebuild and 5% for the cost of capital. There are probably more efficient ways of increasing profitability.

Also a lot of people are focused on increasing 'revenue' which is laudable especially from an ffp point of view. But profitability of the project may well be the focus of the owners.

1 hour ago, imavillan said:

So, it seems that the wall was originally lined up ok to where the ball was first placed.

cheating or being smart?

if that was one of our players I’d say smart…….but!!!!!

 

Two point deduction, fines for the club and Toney ... not a problem.

11 minutes ago, Genie said:

It’s like being CEO of a big company, you have experts who have experts working for them. All you have to do rubber stamp the recommendation (still not ideal being 80 odd though).

Exactly ... who can assemble the most effective team around them and take the country in the direction you want it to be taken?

The problem is no one person or party will meet an individual's wants on a variety of issues.

55 minutes ago, Captain_Townsend said:

Most important since about 1989:

Sid (Club legend)

McGrath (World class. The GOAT of my time)

Platt (Massive player, funded a new team in 1991-92)

Yorke (Bargain, top player. What may have been had he stayed in 1998)

Barry (Mr Aston Villa for a long time, a decade basically)

Merson (The heartbeat of the team, 1998-2002. A wand of a boot)

Mellberg (Just shades Laursen for longevity and games played)

Benteke (Crucial goals in a bleak era)

Martinez (Absolutely crucial to us since day one. World class.

McGinn (Symbol of our resurgence from championship to top 4 contenders).

Honourable mentions for Staunton, Bosnich, Ehiogu, Townsend, Angel and Mings. 

 

I must admit your prowess when it comes to financial matters, I find, wanting; but your acuity to Villa's legends is spot on.