Skills

a few days ago there was every chance that no one was coming in so this is good for a number of reasons! 

seriously cant believe people here aren't happy about this - we potentially have money to bring in more talent ffs

17 hours ago, omariqy said:

https://7500toholte.sbnation.com/2018/5/30/17407010/aston-villa-financial-fair-play-jack-grealish-james-chester-albert-adomah

A good article. 

In 2016/17 the figure is £3.5m loss as £11m of that £14m loss was to do with infrastructure and the academy.  The estimate for 2017/2018 is around £30m loss.

That puts us on a £33m running loss to 2018/19.  In 2018/19 we lose a big chunk in revenue because the drop in parachute payments. We stand to make a loss of £55m according to the estimates.  That means we have a 3 year running loss of £88m when we need to be at £39m. So a defecit of say £49m. Of that amount £13m to £15m went out the door in wages. Additionally Gil, Amavi and Gollini went permanently and on those deals we add £5m of profit to FFP. So the deficit is now £29m. 

These are all estimates but it could be anywhere between that £25m to £30m figure roughly. 

great article, thanks for that.

Anyone know what the 3 year window loss allowable was for the year ended 2017/18??   From his numbers and his forecast, our loss was 62.5m and theres been no noise that we were in breach so was it higher than the 39m we're allowed for the next 3 year window?

16 hours ago, blandy said:

I think this is another overly optimistic post and perhaps at least in part, innacurate. I also think Matt Scott is wrong about FFP not being a worry, or being a smokescreen.

We know that FFP works over a rolling 3 year period. We know that for the season just gone we narrowly avoided breaching the rules. We know that for the season approaching our overall rolling allowance for the 3 year window is 22 million smaller than previously .We know that our income from Prem league parachute payments is a further 18 million lower. We know that the EFL rules require the Club not only to comply with the rules, but to act in good faith. We know that this coming season and the 3 year FFP period are all post Lerner ownership. We also know from the accounts that player sales of 20 odd million quid helped with the previous seasons FFP, and we know that transfer fees due to us have been brought forward (and thus count for last season, not this next one, so that's a further gap to be filled).

We know that the release of Terry, Snoddy, Johnson et al happened because we could not, this season, afford their wages and loan fees. We know that we could not afford to buy Sam J for 6 million. So we know that this next season we have a 40million hole to fill. Sure, the wages for all those loan players, for Gabby and others are off the slate, and that's a significant help, but nowhere near the 40 million+ that we need to correct. ANd I agree that getting more players with high wages off the books is essential

We also know that while we may talk and " the league would listen to a sensible argument from the new owners about how they will make us sustainable" that there's nothing in the FFP rules that offers  any such talks as a get out of jail card. Quite the opposite. All clubs have to be treated equally, as far as possible and the integrity of the league has to be maintained - thus sanctioning of exceptionalism for Villa or anyone else is highly unlikely.

We know that there are specific clauses in EFL FFP to catch owners and/or related parties "cheating" round the rules by paying OTT for executive boxes, sponsoring things above market value and other such shenanigans.

We know that the other 23 Clubs will not want to cede an advantage to Villa and would make representations (see Villa and Leeds moaning about Wolves last season) if there was the hint of something devious. If you're Burton, with tiny gates, or embargoed Small Heath, or Leeds or Wednesday or Sheff Utd. you are absolutely not going to stand for Villa being given a helping hand to beat them over the season.

This club has got to be run in such a way as to be sustainable, not to be dependent on owner(s) throwing good money after bad. Get the wages under control, get the structure right, while also being ambitious and proactive in marketing and income generation.

Do we know the annual loss for the year that is dropping off the rolling 3 year window?  Its the year that we were relegated and could only assume its a very large number, if so this definitely helps the cause for the coming year but happy to be proven wrong.

Your comment highlighted above all happened prior to the new owners where we had a cashflow issue which was coming to a point of crisis. In my opinion, Xia made these decisions to aid cashflow and the fact he really doesn't have funds and not necessarily to offset FFP/losses

I actually don't buy we have a 40m ffp hole and think this number has been overinflated for a number of reasons. Im also not in the 'giddy' camp either where we'll buy who we want when we want, I just don't think we are in as bleak position as you have put it.   Proof will be in the pudding

I think im still scarred by previous manager appointments over the past 5 or so years that im on the fence...  I don't like the style that is played but I fear the next guy that comes in

if (and its a big if at this point) there is minimal player turnover I actually think under Bruce we have a decent chance in going up this season

how has Steer performed in preseason so far? 

On ‎21‎/‎07‎/‎2018 at 04:46, Zatman said:

Krul has played 28 games since start of 2015 season. 6 of them were in the Dutch 2nd division

unfortunately that there is a better cv than our current no. 1

On ‎22‎/‎07‎/‎2018 at 03:03, Fight Like Lions said:

Maybe but having watched the 90mins that’s my honest opinion. Burton couldn’t hit a barn door otherwise they would have had at least a couple of goals, possibly more. Pre season isn’t the be all and end all but there wasn’t much creativity on show today at all, with the exception of our 4th goal. Will be interesting to see how we do against a better team in midweek. 

thought the second goal was pretty creative by Lansbury with a good through ball to Adomah who made a nice run in behind the defenders...

third goal was a classy run

scored all 4 goals from open play and didn't concede... I didn't watch the game but it cant have been that bad??

ill join if there a few of us in

maybe if there was one for the championship

5 hours ago, flamingsombrero said:

I'll get slaughtered for this but I'm sorry I've just never seen it. Not at the insane level most put him up at anyway. I recon he'll be somewhere like Watford or Palace in a couple of years.

I reluctantly agree...  I don't think he's PL title challenging material - more of the next tier like Everton and dare I say it Leicester level.  I think its a strange move by Spurs

anyone know if he travelled with the group to Portugal?

8 hours ago, VillanousOne said:

This.

I don't recall any other manager bombing Ross out and he has had a fair few clubs.

He might be a clearing in the woods, he might not deserve another chance, but forcing him to train with the kids sends the wrong message i.e. 'desperate to get rid of at any cost, we'll take a massive loss' look at how many times our managers have done this and how many times they've failed to 'FORCE THAT PLAYER OUT.'

All that happens is a player on huge wages sits on their arse doing nothing and earning those wages, or going out on loan with wages heavily subsidised by the club.

I would get behind Bruce if he showed us what an amazing experienced manager he is by solving a problem like Ross McCormack, a problem all Ross's other managers didn't seem to have even if he does have a reputation of being a dick.
 

I agree with the above, however the only contra to this is if he isn't wanted nor trusted by the playing group.  For all we know, the leaders and other influential players do not want his poor attitude around the senior team

I don't believe the sole reason of him not being with the team in Portugal is on Bruce

5 hours ago, jim said:

Personally IF he has got his personal issues sorted then I would give him another chance. I am well aware of his issues and if the full details  were known there may be a little more sympathy here. However I’m not excusing all his actions. 

I might be wrong but does letting him go on a free hurt us in regard to ffp as it counts as more of a loss.

The squad could potentially be in dire straights come the start of the season and IF we had a fit and firing RM it could be a real asset. 

absolutely right that it goes against us in FFP -  there's really only 3 outcomes here, he either knuckles down and is included in the first team, or someone takes him on loan potentially with us paying a significant part of his wages or Micah has a friend in the magoos

FFP looks like the main concern from Bruce's interview, in saying that, I cant see us selling players like Kodj and Hogan as I doubt we could sell them for a fee that doesn't add to the FFP loss. If anything a loan would be better suited getting the wages off the book

Players that would help us with FFP are Grealish, Chester, Adomah, which I can see leaving and any other home grown talent.  Really hope we keep the likes of Green and Davis and build the team around them next season 

Man City are about to buy Daniel Arzani from feeder club Melb City and loan him out ala Aaron Mooy

Would be a good replacement for Snoddy and be a very cheap loan option for us...   could do worse

he's time is now, will be 26 in a couple of months.  Unfortunately it looks like we don't have any other choices. 

Playing in 3 League Cup games against Colchester, Wigan and boro is different to playing in 46 league games. Will be a massive test for him if we go down that path

Anyone think that Mark Delaney is ready to take the senior job?

saw bogdan going on loan to Hibs, would have been a relatively good option for us without really knowing the costs involved

On ‎10‎/‎06‎/‎2018 at 01:19, PussEKatt said:

I think FM 14 was the best one although I read on the net that a lot of players still play FM 12 and someone updated it to the squads of 2012 or similar. Apparently a lot of ppl also still play Ultimate soccer manager,I must check that game out ( its freeware now ) I remember playing it on my Amiga and it was quite good. 

do you have any forums or links to updates to FM12?  I noticed I still have it on the laptop

anyone know if we have a sell on fee for Ayew?   have read Fulham are willing to spend 8m on him

13 hours ago, Nabby said:

Agreed the solutions being offered as so short term in the end he will end up making things worse and get less back ...

I'm to take it that selling players is going to happen to cover short term funding , the long term issue is that most of sales will be at a loss so come March when we are assessed on FFP we will be sanctioned ..so as I see it we face a season of struggle then we could be hit with a points deduction over FFP. I think he is being stubborn and trying to hang in there to save face when it clear is tenure as been a disaster and it will end , go now and he may redeem him self ( at mo Wyness seems to be taking most of the heat ) but the fans will turn all there ire on him soon enough 

Selling Jack will offset most of the losses for FFP along with the significant amount of wages coming out

15 hours ago, omariqy said:

Xia wants £60m back. He will be lucky to get £10m. People do want to buy us though.  Xia needs to stop being stubborn and sell up.

where does it say he wants 60m?  all ive seen are reports saying he wants the money he paid for us back

16 hours ago, Rob182 said:

On his last showing, Richards is basically a League One defender. No-one is going to take on a player of his ability for the money he's on now (£40k p/w, at least) and he's not going to agree to just stop being paid by Villa.

McCormack could be sold, but because of FFP we're inexplicably better keeping him on the books and losing more money in wages than we would be to cut our losses and just sell him for a few million. FFP means that doing the latter would result in a bigger loss on our FFP accounts.

Catch 22, flogging McCormack off would immediately help the cashflow but bite us on FFP...   I understand why FFP was brought in, but in practice it doesn't translate to clubs making good business decisions

On ‎02‎/‎06‎/‎2018 at 20:07, omariqy said:

Right I have had a go at an FFP spreadsheet!!! 

Two tables - the first shows the wages saved on the players leaving after their loan spells or contracts expiring. The second shows players who I would hope would leave and who are already scheduled to leave. Figures are estimates and I may have completely missed the point around wages saved (I read that you can use the total amount saved in this years FFP figures).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

good post mate, being an accountant I love this sort of stuff!

only question is do we register the wages saved for the length of the contract in the 2019 year, or only the 2019 portion?  ie. you've got wages saved for Hogan of 5.5m however the cost of his wages for the FFP year of 2019 is 1.8m