CVByrne

We really are close we can see this out ourselves. I just don't want it going to the final day as the stress would be too much. 

We've a 4 day gap to Liverpool and then a 6 day to Palace. We can recharge batteries. Need the home support on Monday night 

We are capable of big performances. We've seen plenty of them. 

20 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

If Spurs didn’t have Burnley and Sheff UTD, I’d be saying it’s ‘done’ too.

However, those sides regularly concede 4+ goals to even the poorer teams in the division. 

It would only take the following set of results for them to catch us.

Spurs 4-1 Burnley
Spurs 4-0 Sheff Utd
Spurs 1-1 Man City
Villa 0-2 Liverpool
Villa 0-1 Palace

That is not exactly bonkers and quite frankly, we’ll be lucky to only lose by two now Liverpool are playing without pressure but still for Klopp. Palace have hit form and look dangerous too.

It’s very likely Spurs will be 4 points behind us by the time we play Liverpool. 

They would win in goals scored so only need to beat them 3-0 each if we lose 1-0 and 2-0

If Liverpool won 4-0 it would mean even a draw for Spurs against City would have made it very hard for them to turn around the goal difference.

5 minutes ago, maqroll said:

Hate to have to agree with you. Europe was always going to present this problem. 

It's good practice for the team and the finances have helped us 

1 hour ago, MaVilla said:

i might do that, losing £60 for Villa to get CL is worth it .....

who is that with?

Betfair, lay Aston Villa for 4th at 1.06 

Look, go the emotional hedge route. You can risk £60 to win a £1000 that Villa don't get 4th. 

1 minute ago, juanpablosaliceband said:

It wouldn’t be that enormous. For it to come down to goal difference, we’d have to lose two games and spurs win two and draw one. If they put four or five past Sheffield United, they will probably beat our goal difference. Liverpool leaking those goals is annoying. 

Exactly I outlined above, let's say there's a 4 goal swing next weekend, we lose 2-0 and they win 2-0 or we lose 1-0 and they win 3-0.

Then we're down to a 5 goal lead and they play Sheffield who are done and gone and concede lots of goals. We lose 1-0 and Spurs win 4-0 and they have it on goals scored 

Those 2 extra goals today matter. 

Let's say we lose by a goal to Liverpool and Spurs beat Burnley 2-0 then they draw with City.

The final day means there are 5 goals in it and they win 4-0 against Sheffield United and we lose 1-0 to Palace. Then they get 4th on goals scored.

Those two goals sloppy given away by Liverpool could matter. Could.

Still if you had given us a 3 goal swing and being 7 ahead still at the beginning of the week we'd have taken it. 

Those 2 goals might mean a stressful final day though. At 11 goal lead it could have meant a Spurs draw with City wasn't enough 

Goa difference back in play. Very poor from Liverpool not good 

7 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Was anyone still worried about goal difference ?

If this Liverpool turn up at Villa Park we might concede a few. Hard to predict goal difference with Spurs playing Burnley and Sheffield United.

Spurs have a Burnley who have something to play for though next weekend. 

Let's hope Liverpool keep this at least s 4-0 

1 minute ago, OutByEaster? said:

Not for me - if Liverpool win then there's absolutely no need.

It's a shame the way the order of the games has come for Spurs, if they had City earlier then we might already be confident. 

Thursday is our chance to do something more this season and I think we prioritise it and hope we've done enough in the league - and if we haven't, it's the Palace game we really need to focus on.

We need Liverpool to produce the goods. We're still in driving seat for 4th 

Makes Thurs a difficult selection decision. Do we throw in towel for ECL and save the team for Monday?

Just now, LondonLax said:

It’s the injuries not the pressure. 

It's both. We fall over the line or we don't. Need Spurs to not find any form

We're literally done for the season. It's down to Liverpool and City to save us. 

Would break me forever if we threw this season away at the death.

Need a Liverpool performance later today 

Morgan Rogers injured now too?

I'm abroad so can't see the game. 1 shot and no possession looks bad though. Are we playing as bad as stats saying?

Could be key losing Emi for two games like this.

I'd take a draw if we can get one. Olsen is so so so so bad it's right to be in fear seeing his name on the starting lineup. 

The only thing Pau has in common with Mings is the preferred foot and they are defenders. Mings is a superb defender, physical and fast. Pau is a superb deep play maker and is excellent at slow build up from the back and calm control.

Pau Mings Konsa Frimpong this is the type of dream back 4

22 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

Can’t see Mings getting much of a look in next season if this one happens

He will play plenty as the central CB of back three. So Pau or Hermoso playing LB with Mings and Konsa. Then an attacking RB.

Think of how we play with Konsa at RB this season. Next season we can do that but switch sides depending on what tactical flexibility Emery wants 

49 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

Doesn’t strike me as the kind of player happy to come and sit on our bench.

LCB position is Torres’ so where will he play?

Saying that, Torres can’t seem to stay fit for more than 5 minutes so we’ll need a rotation option for that role.

What about Mings?

And what does it mean for Buendia? Will he finally be sold?

More questions than answers.

Pau will play LB some games. Hermoso can play LCB or Central. We can play 3 CBs and an attacking FB

We've been after him for some time. I'd been saying a LCB ball progression player for the left side of the back three is key as once Lenglet is gone we've nobody in squad who can do it to a high level like Pau.

Plus Hermoso brings lots of European Experience and is a La Liga winner. 

He is best suited to a more attacking 6/8 role and needs a player like Kamara beside him to be more of a 6. 

Tielemans seemed to be doing the 6 role well in recent games and I think he's best suited to starting there with Luiz when he comes back.

18 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

So from a PSR perspective, as a seller, a one year loan with a £1m fee banks you a million, but selling a player for £5m and buying him back for £4m a year later banks you £5m and you still have the player.

And as a buyer, buying a player for £5m over five years means you amortise him at £1m a year and take that PSR hit, then selling him a year later for £4m means you come out even on PSR (four years of one million) and have paid a million pounds for one year of that player?

 

This is why the rules make it better for you to turn over your squad more regularly by selling and buying players. This is what City do well on top of all their other advantages. Chelsea do this very well too. 

So expect to see more from us in this type of activity. Especially as Jacks 100m is rolling off next season. That big income chunk has fuelled a lot of our ability to spend.

We need to keep some net profit in the player transfer accounts. It's critical. Hence I see Tim Iroegbunam and KKH being sold this summer more likely. Maybe Sinisalo too. With buy backs 

On 03/05/2024 at 13:10, Czarnikjak said:

We are at risk, hence we asking for extra £30m. However, we can easily generate that £30m by selling a player if other clubs won't agree to the rules change. We won't get any points deducted, we have too many assets we can easily sell to generate that amount.

I certainly cannot see other 13 teams voting for it to help us out though, so we will be selling for profit.

The reason we have asked for the limit to be increased for end of next season is Jacks 100m rolls off our PSR calculations and we have more room to manoeuvre and other clubs would too like Everton, Forest, Chelsea, United and newly promoted clubs. 

In relation to this seasons PSR there is no way the club has budgeted for us to get 4th and make semi finals of ECL. So our over performance this season has yielded £15m+ I'm sure.

I've said it multiple times from the calculations we will be ok for PSR this season with boosted revenue and costs of firing Gerrard and team and paying release to hire Emery are off. Plus our sales of players 

21 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

So in terms of the regulations, what would we have booked as profit on him last summer - if we're able to book the 'agreed' figure rather than the delivered increment then it's a work of genius. Not sure that would be the case though.

In terms of contract, does anyone know how long he'll come back to us carrying? 

If he has a few years left, I guess a loan is more viable whereas if it's only one or two we might need to cash in earlier rather than later.

 

This years accounts will show profit of £18m on player trading so this is included with other income in PSR calculation and squad cost rule for UEFA (which takes player transfer average over pervious 3 years into account).

We resign Archer this summer for 14m on a 4 year deal with a £2m salary. So our annual cost is £5.5m per year 14 / 4 = 3.5m + 2m

So if we sold him for 14m we'd have zero profit or loss from his transfer. If we sold him for 10m + 4m add ons we'd book a 4m loss and if / when add ons are triggered they are income in the particular season they were triggered.

Obviously if we sell a player we don't pay them salary nor can they play for us. 

I would assume the club are open to selling him or loaning him with an obligation to buy or a buy option.

Sheffield United might be open to Loaning him next season knowing how well he performs in Championship and agree to a buy option if they are promoted.