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leviramsey

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Blog Entries posted by leviramsey

  1. leviramsey

    Picks for 29 September

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 61-87, -149.72 units (-11.42%)

    Panaitolikos to win +265: 5 units
    Heerenveen to win -125: risk 7 units to win 5.60
    Heerenveen -1 +135: 6 units
    Udinese DNB -110: risk 5 units to win 4.54
    Torino +1 +100: 6 units
    Lazio DNB -225: risk 5 units to win 2.22
    Amkar Perm DNB +115: 9 units
  2. leviramsey
    For the past few years, I've endeavored to periodically post results of Monte Carlo simulations of the remainder of the season. The process is essentially analogous to repeatedly running the BBC predictor and seeing how often various events come up.
    I've decided that with the new site, it perhaps makes more sense to have this as a blog series rather than regular comments.
    5th0.1%6th0.1%7th0.2%8th0.3%9th0.6%10th0.8%11th1.3%12th2.2%13th3.4%14th5.2%15th7.4%^^^ upper quartile16th10.3%17th13.0%18th16.3% median19th18.1%vvv lower quartile20th20.7%By my reckoning, as things stand it's about 50/50 whether we finish between 19th and 16th, with above that range being about as likely as 20th.
    The table that came up most often in the simulation was:
    1. Man City2. Chelsea3. Leicester City4. Spurs5. Everton6. Man United7. Swansea8. Arsenal9. West Brom10. West Ham11. Southampton12. Watford13. Crystal Palace14. Stoke15. Norwich16. Bournemouth17. Liverpool18. Villa19. Newcastle20. SunderlandRelegation chances
    Sunderland 61.8%Newcastle 55.5%Villa 55.1%Liverpool 48.5%Bournemouth 33.6%Norwich 22.9%Stoke 11.1%Watford 3.0%Southampton, Crystal Palace 2.4%West Ham 1.3%Swansea 1.0%West Brom 0.6%Arsenal 0.4%Man Utd 0.3%Everton 0.1%
  3. leviramsey

    Picks for 10 November

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 75-109, -196.45 units (-11.58%)

    Panaitolikos to win -133: risk 7 units to win 5.26
    NAC Breda +1 -120: risk 7 units to win 5.83
    Roma to win -375: risk 9 units to win 2.40
    Roma -1.5 -115: risk 8 units to win 6.95
    Metalist Kharkiv to win -160: risk 5 units to win 3.12
    Metalist Kharkiv -1 +120: 6 units
  4. leviramsey

    Picks for 9 November

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 73-106, -189.96 units (-11.43%)

    Reims to win +319: 5 units
    Montpellier DNB +111: 6 units
    Borussia M'gladbach to win -158: risk 6 units to win 3.79
    Borussia M'gladbach -1 +112: 6 units
    Real Sociedad +2 -101: risk 6 units to win 5.94
  5. leviramsey
    YTD: 15-34, -127.44 units (-27.47%)

    Hull +2 +200: 10 units
    Norwich DNB +110: 8 units
    Evian DNB +110: 5 units
    Guingamp +2 -120: risk 8 units to win 6.66
    Hannover DNB +110: 5 units
    Hertha Berlin to win +280: 7 units

    Added picks for later will be in the comments...
  6. leviramsey
    YTD: 18-42, -160.64 units (-28.95%)

    Liverpool to win +140: 6 units
    Liverpool DNB -125: risk 11 units to win 8.80
    Roda +1 +130: 7 units
    Nacional to win +145: 6 units
    Nacional DNB -130: risk 9 units to win 6.92
    Rioa Ave DNB -180: risk 6 units to win 3.33
  7. leviramsey

    Picks for 14 September

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 26-52, -174.91 units (-25.06%)

    Arsenal to win -145: risk 8 units to win 5.51
    Arsenal -1 +127: 7 units
    Chelsea DNB -150: risk 7 units to win 4.66
    Hannover +2.5 +110: 8 units
    Real Sociedad DNB -150: risk 8 units to win 5.33
  8. leviramsey

    Picks for 21 September

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 44-65, -127.68 units (-12.98%)

    Liverpool to win -170: risk 6 units to win 3.52
    Liverpool -1 +110: 6 units
    Hannover to win +155: 7 units
    Hannover DNB -115: risk 11 units to win 9.56
    Bayern Munich to win -181: risk 5 units to win 2.76
    Bayern Munich -1 -110: risk 5 units to win 4.54
    Udinese DNB -105: risk 5 units to win 4.76
    Maritimo DNB -135: risk 7 units to win 5.18
    Barcelona -2 -115: risk 5 units to win 4.34
  9. leviramsey

    Picks for 28 September

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 58-81, -130.64 units (-10.43%)

    Marseille DNB -130: risk 5 units to win 3.84
    Man City to win -195: risk 7 units to win 3.58
    Man City -1 -110: risk 7 units to win 6.36
    Freiburg +2 -125: risk 7 units to win 5.60
    Napoli to win -130: risk 5 units to win 3.84
    PSV DNB -180: risk 6 units to win 3.33
    Maritimo DNB -175: risk 5 units to win 2.85
  10. leviramsey

    Picks for 26 October

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 64-97, -207.97 units (-14.49%)

    West Brom +1.5 -140: risk 10 units to win 7.14
    Reims +1 -120: risk 8 units to win 6.66
    Bayer Leverkusen to win -180: risk 12 units to win 6.66
    Bayer Leverkusen -1 -105: risk 13 units to win 12.38
    Twente -1 -135: risk 5 units to win 3.70
    Antalyaspor DNB +140: 11 units
  11. leviramsey
    A 2-0 loss at home and a pair of clubs near us in the table beating clubs at the other end of the table. Disaster?
    Our chances of staying up actually slightly improved.
    16th 0.1% unchanged17th 0.6% +0.1%18th 2.4% +0.9%19th 12.3% +4.1%20th 84.6% -5.1%Villa: 99.3% (-0.1%) Sunderland: 86.9% (+8.0%) Swansea: 43.4% (+7.4%) Bournemouth: 28.8% (-12.6%) Newcastle: 24.1% (+1.2%) Norwich: 15.2% (-3.2%) West Brom: 1.2% (-0.3%) Chelsea: 1.1% (-0.4%)
  12. leviramsey
    Since I didn't want the football betting thread I started in "Other Football" to turn into a clone of Mister_Master's Portuguese league thread (i.e. a logn string of posts by me), I figured I'd move these posts to my blog here.

    I do post these picks on Google+, also.

    The picks in the linked thread went 7-12, +3.67 units (+2.03% of risk)

    Being that I'm from North America, I generally use North American notation, most notably in the form of moneyline pricing. Conversion of positive moneylines to decimals is easy (divide by 100 and add 1 (or add 100 and divide by 100...)), but this converter may prove handy.

    My basic philosophy is value, which generally means that I pick underdogs, especially when I'm getting the benefit of a handicap.

    On with the picks for 25 August!

    Genoa -0.5 +440: 8 units
    Genoa +1 -150: risk 9 units to win 6.00
    Cagliari -0.5 +145: 8 units
    Cagliari DNB -140: risk 9 units to win 6.42
    Chievo/Parma Draw +235: 6 units
    Chievo +0.5 -105: risk 6 units to win 5.71
    Udinese -0.5 +310: 10 units
    Udinese +0.5 -110: risk 8 units to win 7.27
    Gil Vicente +2 -120: risk 7 units to win 5.83
    Vitoria Guimaraes -0.5 +250: 8 units
    Vitoria Guimaraes DNB +165: 9 units
    Sevilla -0.5 +115: 10 units
    Sevilla DNB -170: risk 10 units to win 5.88
    Shakhtar Donetsk -0.5 -133: risk 7 units to win 5.26
    Chornomorets -0.5 -117: risk 9 units to win 7.69
  19. leviramsey

    Picks for 15 September

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 33-53, -133.10 units (-17.34%)

    Kalloni to win +225: 6 units
    Hellas Verona to win +110: 6 units
    Hellas Verona DNB -180: risk 9 units to win 5.00
    Rubin Kazan DNB -195: risk 10 units to win 5.12
    Granada DNB -150: risk 10 units to win 6.66
  21. leviramsey
    YTD: 23-47, -158.96 units (-25.28%)

    Atromitos to win -175: risk 6 units to win 3.42
    Atromitos -1 +105: 6 units
    Platanias to win +215: 6 units
    Platanias DNB +130: 9 units
    Estoril to win -181: risk 5 units to win 2.76
    Estoril -1 +100: 5 units
  23. leviramsey
    YTD: 14-28, -97.44 units (-23.32%)

    PSV to win +425: 6 units
    PSV +1 -135: risk 7 units to win 5.18
    Shakhter Karagandy to win +1000: 6 units
    Shakhter Karagandy +2 -145: risk 7 units to win 4.82
    Lyon DNB +190: 7 units
  24. leviramsey
    YTD: 13-23, -57.98 units (-15.72%)

    Fenerbahce to win +650: 8 units
    Fenerbahce +1.5 -135: risk 10 units to win 7.40
    Ludogorets to win +470: 9 units
    Ludogorets +1 -110: risk 8 units to win 7.27
    Dinamo Zagreb DNB -110: risk 5 units to win 4.54
    PAOK DNB +175: 9 units

    Betting on a number of sides with control of the ties to not put in more than a cursory effort...
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