zak Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Hoping the Colts, put a bit of money (too much) on Colts to win the superbowl at 120/1 on betfair with a view to lay it, now i am basically playing deal or no deal with what i should do with it, when and how much to lay etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packoman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Awful second half from the Eagles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted December 14, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted December 14, 2012 Hoping the Colts, put a bit of money (too much) on Colts to win the superbowl at 120/1 on betfair with a view to lay it, now i am basically playing deal or no deal with what i should do with it, when and how much to lay etc FootballOutsiders' simulations (before last night's game) gave the Colts about a 1 in a thousand shot of winning the Super Bowl (their stats really don't like the Colts, it should be noted). Considering that they'd likely have to beat the Ravens in Baltimore in the first round of the playoffs and then beat the Patriots or Broncos at some point to get to the Super Bowl, where they'd be pretty big underdogs, I'm not sure that 1 in a thousand is that inaccurate. Figure they'd be about a touchdown underdogs @ Ravens, which is about 25% chance of winning (by the usual conversion table): 1 in 4 10-point dog in divisional playoff (likely @ Texans): 1 in 5 14-point dog in AFCCG (likely @ Patriots or @ Broncos): 1 in 8 10-point dog in Super Bowl: 1 in 5 Which is a 1 in 800 accumulator. The Colts could win the AFC South (about a 1 in 20-ish chance, I'd say), which would give them a home game to the Texans (Colts would likely be the 4 seed and the Texans would be the 5 seed). 4-point dog in wildcard playoff (likely v Texans): 1 in 3 14-point dog in divisional playoff (likely @ Patriots or @ Broncos): 1 in 8 14-point dog in divisional playoff (likely @ Patriots or @ Broncos): 1 in 8 10-point dog in Super Bowl: 1 in 5 Combine those and you get a 1 in 440-ish shot predicated on the Colts making the playoffs. 1 in six or seven hundred seems eminently reasonable. So I'd consider really laying the Colts at their current 90. At minimum, I'd lay enough to get a no-risk bet on the Colts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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