Czarnikjak

I wouldn’t be surprised if we let Guilbert go now with Tuanzebe capable of covering RB position if Cash is out.

Smith never seemed to rate Fred.

1 hour ago, nepal_villan said:

What formation did we play after the 60th minute?  We were much better than with the 4-4-2 or 4-2-2-2 we played until then. Worry Watkins and Ings won't work

Looked like we switched to 4-3-3

I wouldn't read too much into it. Salernitana were done by that point and couldn't run anymore.

They looked really poor side tbh, average championship side at best.

2 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said:

Maybe I’m overstating us, but surely we should be pulling more revenue than Southampton and Palace? 

We should, but 10 years of criminal negligence and mismanagement under Lerner and Dr Tony left us behind. We are also still recovering our reputation after 3 years spent in the championship.

2 hours ago, Rugeley Villa said:

Keep scrolling down, there’s a few revenue tables regarding tickets sales and merchandise etc. We are surprisingly low and below clubs I thought we’d be above. 

This data is a bit misleading as number of clubs extended their accounting period that year to cover project restart.

We didn't, hence large chunk of our revenue was deferred to 20/21 set of accounts.

Still, we are very average in our ability to generate revenue, on par with teams like Southampton and Crystal Palace perhaps.

1 hour ago, ender4 said:

We are in a rush.  Need to make Europe this year and start increasing our global presence.  The big boys are working on fully closing up elite membership and there is not much time (1-5 years) to get in there before it happens.

More so, don't make Europe this season and we might see Watkins, Konsa or Martinez pushing for a move next summer.

I'm not saying getting to Europe this season will be easy or even very likely, but the pressure is starting to build on the management team.

1 hour ago, Kiwivillan said:

Sad reacts for AEG starting. The guy scored goal in promotion while fasting and scored some bangers last season and converted every penalty he took (I think). Is it too much to ask to pay him some god damn respect?!?

Full respect to AEG. But barring major injury crisis, he will see even less minutes this season than last.

He might decide himself it's time to go and look for 1st team football.

26 minutes ago, skarroki said:

Not really a team shape discussion point, more on personnel and didn't know where to put it. 

As it stands we only have 22 players to register for our 25 man squad. When you consider that 22 includes Wesley and Hourihane (half way out the door) and then Davis and Trezeguet (no point registering before January), we surely need to bring in a fair few players still? There's even still links to El Ghazi leaving and more of our best youngsters - who I assumed would make up for our small squad - are queuing up to leave on loan 

Well, you don't HAVE to register 25 players, that's the maximum.

We can register less senior players and complement it with few youngsters (chuck, jpb for example) who don't count towards the 25 limit anyway.

We need to be a lean and mean machine, no need to bloat the squad unnecessarily ( although couple more incomings are necessary, including CB cover).

FFP or no FFP you just can't compete with state owned clubs like psg and city.

Doesn't matter how wealthy our owners are, they will never be able to compete with a sovereign state.

Fundamental changes are required in football. No idea what the right solution is thought.

We just need to accumulate more than 55 points and the league position will take care of itself.

11 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

Why would COVID allow us to impair book value of players? Apologies if you’ve explained this already and I’ve missed it.

Expected deflation of transfer fees due to COVID making players less valuable.

For example, in their 19/20 accounts Everton took an intangible assets ( in other words players) impairment charge of £26m and attributed it to COVID.

I fully expect us to do the same in 20/21 accounts. It’s a free FFP hit.

24 minutes ago, blandy said:

I saw it a while ago, it was one of those things where it was tweeted by some so called ITK account, then repeated on the various newspaper tabloid websites. We won't know till Chelsea and Villa's accounts are issued next may time, and even then it may be hard to identify if there was a loan fee or how much it was or how much his wages were, or if we paid all or some of them. It's one of those things where we just make a semi educated guess.

You are correct, we might never find out exactly how much we paid for him, my logic was as follows: 

1. Highly unlikely Chelsea would let him go without a loan fee at all

2. £6m was the only reported figure

3. Chelseas  valuation to sell him was about £30m last year which equates to £6m a year amortisation if signed on 5 year contract. 

51 minutes ago, blandy said:

There's no amortisation on Barclay. He was never someone we bought. We paid his wages (and maybe a loan fee), but no wrote down of player value applies, surely. Equally Neil Taylor and Elmo I think we did pay fees for (even if a swap deal for Neil Taylor), so there will be amortisation for them, though only a relatively small amount.

Hello,

Loan fees PAID are classified as amortisation. £11m total cost for Barkley was widely reported, and looks very plausible to me.

Loan feed RECEIVED are classified as revenue (usually bundled  under commercial revenue label with other commercial income )

Taylor and Elmo amortisation would be negligible, so I ignored them.

2 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

Good work!

As you've noted, the above is based on having met the minimum requirement for passing FFP for 20/21. Any chance you've had a go at estimating the 20/21 position based on the published 19/20 accounts and how likely we are to have actually met FFP and what changes would have to occur from 19/20 to meet it?

As far as I can tell from the information available, we have met the FFP limit last season, but only just.

The main change that occurred was the continuation of COVID and the ability to write off player's residual value (thus reducing amortisation costs) in the books, while treating this impairment as a FFP excluded covid induced cost.

A lot has happened in the last few days, good time to look at where we are with FFP.

In this post I will give my assessment of the situation before Jack left, and what were our options if he had stayed. 

Reminder, I am making 2 assumptions here:

1. We didn't break FFP in 20/21

2. We have no intention on breaking it in 21/22

To the best of my knowledge and information publicly available, our situation as of May 2021 (looking back at last 3 FFP monitoring periods) was near or right at the limit:

Our transactions since then:

This is a deficit of about £4m. However, particularly bad 17/18 season will drop off from our FFP calculations now, releasing another £10m of FFP budget for wages and amortisation.

That gave us only about £6m left to play with if Jack decided to stay (which was probably already reserved for Sanson incoming and Jack wage increase that is not shown in my calculation).

So in my estimation, the bottom line is that Buendia and Bailey were bought regardless of Grealish staying or going (Ings is already coming for Grealish money though). However, any further purchases would need to be funded by player sales. Departures of the likes of Hourihane, would give us enough money to bring in a decent cover in CB position for example.

Once the dust settles on Grealish and Ings transfers, I will provide my assessment of the new scenario that unfolded now, and what we can do £100m kitty.

5 separate injuries last season 

12 minutes ago, a m ole said:

How can they spend what would be a quarter of a billion on transfers and wages in one window and get away with it?

Easily.

One word: amortisation 

If Jack signs 5 year contract, his accounting cost to City is only £20m per season plus wages. Not a biggie for a club with £500m yearly revenue.

Spurs fans not happy that they missed out on Ings...they apparently wanted him at the club.

Interesting development 

4 hours ago, villa4europe said:

They only predicted us to finish 11th but in their season preview the guardian gave a very good and knowledgeable write up about us that's worth a read 

Second that. Looks like very well informed article by Guardian, predicting bright future for us, with or without grealish.

25 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Assuming Bailey and Buendia were already factored into FFP by the club with Grealish staying, then we would have £200m more to spend.

Technically we could even spend more than £200m this summer(on top of what we already spent)  if grealish is sold and still be complaint from FFP standpoint this season.

The problem is we would be saddling ourselves with amortisation and wages we cannot sustain. That would force us to sell somebody for top dollar every year in the future just to keep complaint.

It really is a fine balance. Once the grealish saga is finished and Bailey is officially signed we can reassess our situation.

31 minutes ago, omariqy said:

Planning on doing an FFP special podcast episode - would you and/or @blandy be keen at all?

It stems from the rumours that we are after Tammy, Axel and JWP. I can't see how we can afford them without selling Grealish (doing the quick FFP maths in my head). I also think it would be great for fans to understand how FFP works with the new (relaxed but not relaxed) rules. Yes we could do a loan to buy but I can imagine most clubs want the income now rather than later. 

Don't posses the necessary radio voice and my non British accent could prove to be a bit too much for the listeners. But if you DM me i will be happy to provide you with some info and pointers before the podcast.

4 hours ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

If they were trying to buy Kane from someone they would offer 35 M

Lol, sound like you describing us bidding £25m on JWP

2 minutes ago, MaVilla said:

so am i reading this thread correct, in the sense that if no more sales were made, we had 72m to spend?

33m on Buendia, 30m(?) on Bailey.

So 9m left?

It's not that simple.

For example you can spend £0 on 5 free transfers but their wages will eat your whole FFP allowance.

Let's see the outcome of Grealish saga first and then reassess. But if everybody  stays, I wouldn't expect any more big incomings.

Another 2 months injury layoff...unfortunately constant injury issue mean he simply cannot be relied on in any shape or form. 

We just need to hope he will stay fit in one of the future transfer Windows and try to sell him sad for the lad

10 minutes ago, KMitch said:

I saw a chart which showed how much each club can spend this summer via FFP rules...  Villa had the 2nd lowest budget of any club at 40 million pounds.  Will have to sell El Ghazi/Hourihane to balance the FFP books now and will probably have one more CB in on loan this season. Next summer we'll probably only add 2-3 more as well, unless we're going to start flipping players for more money and reinvesting again.  

FFP is what's going to start holding us back now more than anything.  As much as I would hate to lose Jack, his transfer fee would be 100% profit and we'd be able to accelerate our progression by 2 years, if we invested properly.  

 

Link to the chart source would be appreciated