MrBlack

On 30/06/2020 at 22:33, WakefieldVillan said:

You're probably right mate. I think I automatically fear the worst when our rivals play (I'm sure others do too). So far they've all been pretty pathetic and aside from Brighton's last gasp winner against the gunners it's gone pretty well for us...

.. oh and apart from our results!

 

F*%$ing tempted fate there didn't I. West Ham 

The two posts above have explained why, using Sané as a benchmark, Grealish should in theory be worth more than that.  City don't need Sané either, having played all season without him due to his ACL injury,  that may mean he never performs at his previous level again, so their price is reflecting that too.

Also may mean he is more likely to go there than waste his potential at United

2 hours ago, WakefieldVillan said:

The predictors can definitely pass a bit of time but ultimately I don't think they mean a right lot.

I had another look earlier and had the following  bottom half final table;

Brighton                39

West Ham            38

Watford                38

Bournemouth      36 

Villa                      35

Norwich               25

Notable findings from that was;

Newcastle lost all 4 matches against the teams above us. That probably won't happen. 

I had Watford v West Ham as a draw and West Ham v Villa as a draw. Any changes with these results could have a massive effect.

I had Norwich drawing with Brighton but losing to West Ham and Watford - Again, if they managed to somehow get wins in those games it improves our chances.

I had us winning 2 drawing 2 and losing 2 - That would mean a four game unbeaten run at the end.

Worryingly we could be 7 points off safety by the time we play Palace on the 12th July (albeit with a game in hand) Psychologically that could kill us.

I stand by the 36-38 point margin to give us a fighting chance and I think we need Norwich and Newcastle (in particular) to pick up points against our rivals.

 

I feel you've been way too generous with all the teams predictions there.  That would have them all performing better now than they have done all season. Not that it really matters as you've been consistent, and come to roughly the same conclusion I did... our game against West ham is critical. Watford will not reach 38 points... i'd stake my reputation on it

13 minutes ago, useless said:

 

Solid, seems to have a decent cross on him. All the best Charlie!

29 minutes ago, omariqy said:

These are the games left for everyone and at the bottom is the points I expect each team to get. We need a minimum of 8 points I think. 

Aston Villa	Bournemouth	West Ham	Watford
	Newcastle	Chelsea
Liverpool	Man United	Newcastle	Chelsea
Man United	Spurs	Burnley	Norwich
Crystal Palace	Leicester City	Norwich City	Newcastle
Everton	Manchester City	Watford	West Ham
Arsenal	Southampton	Man United	Man City
West Ham	Everton	Aston Villa	Arsenal
5	6	9	7

 

Can't see Watford getting 9 points, certainly not after their last match. Newcastle and west ham I can see being draws,  would leave them with 5 instead of 9. But such are the small margins at this point who really knows.  

Just now, fightoffyour said:

Probably not, they could still be relegated above us in that case though.

That I won't discount, but only because I don't really know how good West ham are going to perform in their run in. 

6 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

I would be very surprised if they did!

I think some may have been too premature to count Brighton safe yet looking at their fixtures, though admittedly their existing 6 point (7 really with GD) lead over us already feels insurmountable.

We aren't getting the 3 wins we'd need to overhaul what Brighton will end up with. There's no way they lose every game  between now and end of the season.  They are very much out of it for me.

16 minutes ago, PussEKatt said:

I agree 100%.Smith does not know how to  motovate the players.How often have you seen our lot come out after half time all fired up.... not once.Its obvious that Smith can not get the best out of them and sticking with him till the end of the season is criminal. JT knows the setup and the players, give him a try,we cant be any worse off can we ?!

Except we're then going into yet another season with yet another new manager. Who presumably won't get appointed until late in the window. Whoever we appoint is going to struggle to start with, and unless they get given time we are going nowhere. 

By the thought process of most on here that want him gone, it feels like you expect whoever comes in to overachieve with what they have before being given the chance to stay as manager, and then even if they do that, they'll be sacked the second we don't push on the very next season with all sorts of limitations and hindering factors thrown in. We are going nowhere with that approach. 

Is promotion at the first time of asking with only half a season to do it, a league cup final and a tight relegation battle really under acheiving? 

On topic edit: I feel blame lies with both, but more heavily with the squad, such that Dean shouldn't be the fall guy for this, at this point in time. 

The thing about asking what Clough would make of things is, for me, totally irrelevant. The best people at their job,  of any era, are the best because they take what is currently done, and improve on it.

Put the superstars of yesteryear in todays climate and they'd have had the same relative background to anyone else currently as they did in their own time, but they'll do more with it.

The difference is probably that the gap between the top and the bottom of all walks of life is increasing,  so it makes it less likely that someone will break the mould from nothing,  but exceptional people are exceptional and would be so in any era.

14 minutes ago, Zatman said:

I said it when it resumed 10 points would keep us up, we have 2 and Wolves was a bit lf a sickener because draw was probably a fair result. 

If we don't get hammered in the next 2 and maybe sneak a point then its all to play for. Last games are all winnable 

I honestly think another 6 points may even be enough given how terrible everyone around us looks. 6 more probably enough, 7 should be, with 8 more i think we're laughing. I dont, however,  think we'll get 8 more, and whatever happens we are almost certainly going to need to beat west ham on the last day

Didn't realise his court date was so far away.

Is the potential punishment limited to licence points and fines? If so, he's probably fine given footballers live in a world where these things seemingly don't matter to them (loads of money for the fine, ability to afford a chauffeur/taxis everywhere they want to go, and a world of employers that couldn't give 2 sh*ts about whether you broke the law ).

We should have used the incident as an opportunity to instil Mings as captain. Behind the scenes we could sell him the story that its to ease the pressure on him and leave him free to do what he does best. I don't think being captain in our situation is doing him any favours.

1 hour ago, sne said:

I read they were going to vote on it, but not heard if they have decided what to do yet?

Massive text on it here:

https://www.cov.com/-/media/files/corporate/publications/2020/04/covington-alert-covid19-and-the-financial-regulation-of-english-football.pdf

More info in the link.

"protect the sporting integrity of competition" - the most significant thing that FFP achieves is the exact opposite of this. Total joke of a regulation.

The aging team we had last time we were relegated needed replacing in its entirety.  The team we have this time will need whoever we lose to be replaced, and maybe a decent winger or striker added to it assuming we lose our most creative player in grealish.

Financially we are sound and will have more to spend than last time, with less required and fewer FFP restrictions. 

They're completed different situations.

Mings, McGinn and the others that have only been with us a relatively short time will either sell for decent amounts or have to stay. They're not irreplaceable.

How have we gone from having a game in hand on everyone to having played a game more? Why is it fair that we've played 4 games in quick succession after a 3 month break, whilst other teams have played 2 allowing them to get up to speed more gradually.  Are the Premier league deliberately trying to screw us over?

23 minutes ago, VillaCas said:

- as I said Smith is not Klopp, Guardiola or Mourinho - had he insisted on total control he wouldn’t be in the job. Like the vast majority of PL managers including those you mention, he has to work within a structure

- show me where I ‘divided the £140m equally”? I didn’t!  I merely said £140m across 15 players does not buy you a PL squad

 - I guess a lot of your next point rest on what you mean by ‘very high reputations’ and ‘well rated’, personally I’d never heard of them and have not been at all impressed. For me these were not players who were going to hit the ground running in the PL

...but if we go with your ‘highly-rated’ line then how has DS been ‘stuffed up like a turkey’ if they are such great talents

By your reckoning he is either underachieving with good players or not been strong enough rejecting bad players....which is it - you can’t have both sides of the argument

- I would expect a serial winner (Klopp?, Guardiola? Mourinho?) to get more out of our players - those managers are with top clubs because they are at the top of the tree - those managers ain’t coming to Villa anytime soon

- finally, DS must bear some of the responsibility but in terms of recruitment the lions share sits with Suso

The biggest part of the problem is that we overachieved last season - we came up with Bruce’s ageing and unbalanced squad and needed to make far more changes than is optimum. I was delighted to get promoted but realised that in the long run it may have been better to come up a year later with a better prepared and more balanced squad.

As it is we will probably go down but I hope that lessons have been learned and we will build a much more balanced and competent squad for our next assault on the Premier League

 

 

These are my thoughts also, albeit put far more eloquently.  We probably over achieved last year, we may be under achieving this year. Dean can take major credit for the former as it wasn't his squad and he was the only difference between us being crap and not. 

He takes partial credit for the latter given the management structure we have in place with regards to signing players.  Had we been a success this season Dean would again have only been partially responsible.

The only evidence we have is to say that he got a poor team playing well last season. We can't be sure if the players we have this season are capable or not, but evidence suggests not,  and I'm not inclined to solely blame Smith for that. 

Just wish he wouldn't wait until 70 minutes to make changes when we're losing.

31 minutes ago, mykeyb said:

I don't think I could disagree more. if he was a fan of Blues or Albion then he should go but as he is one of us he somehow gets a free pass for what he has achieved or not this season?

Who a manger supports is irrelevant to be 

That's fair enough. It reassures me that he's a fan as he will be as desperate for us to win for himself,  for his dad, as well as for his job and career.

The free ride was as much for the fact we were a complete sh*t show before he became our manager and he turned it around, as for the fact he's a fan. It just gives him a bit more leeway for me. Not enough on its own, but all counts

4 hours ago, PussEKatt said:

1 - What sort of stability are you looking for ? we have lost 3/4 of our games.Thats NOT the sort of stability I want.

2 - If you think DS got us up,can you tell me what he was achieving while Jack was injured.It was Jack that got us up, not DS.

3 - What did he learn when he kept Wesley starting every game while he only scored every 2 months.

4 - That would give a new manage with new ideas a really good start.

5 - I dont understand what you mean.

6 - So you prefer a supporter rather than a manager ?

1 - Others have stated that many successful endings have started with poor runs. History is littered with examples, most notably Alex Ferguson at United.  Yes, the modern game has examples too but that isn't really the main point.  I'm not expecting the players that we assembled at haste following an unexpected promotion, with a core team that for the most part of last seasom struggled to compete in the championship, would be competing above the relegation spots. Our current form largely reflects the quality of the team we have, so the stability i'm after is giving someone more than a season to build a team. You can't fix what was wrong with our club in one season.

2 - Jacks performances improved under Smith's management, surely he takes some credit for that?

3 - I dont see what happens in training, we didn't have much in the way of other options, and not starting your very expensive striker when your only alternatives are youth strikers isn't exactly a stick to beat him with.  I'm pointing out that he has the opportunity to demonstrate what he's learned from going through that, and having made that mistake,  and maybe in future years he wont sit idly by when the owners feel it is OK to go into a season with only one (unproven) striker 

4 - or we run the risk that we repeat the exact same mistake we've made for the past 15+ years

5 - I said its a pretty weak reason, but effectively I don't see any benefit in swapping managers now. I think the same outcome is happening this season irrespectice of who is in charge. No short term bounce is happening that will help us in those games we're almost certainly going to lose, and I reckon Dean is as likely as anyone else to get us a win against crystal Palace and west ham. Its an opinion, I expect others will disagree

6 - I prefer not to sh!t on one of our own, especially when I only hold him partially responsible for the mess we're in. 

I am not saying there aren't counter arguments, but I'd just like us to have a manager for more than 1.5 seasons and Dean is worthy of having that opportunity.

40 minutes ago, lexicon said:

The defence certainly looks a lot better since the restart - in the four games before the break we had conceded 11 goals, whereas we've only conceded 4 in 4 since the restart against arguably better opposition. Luiz has been excellent. The midfield and attack look totally out of sorts, though. 

The defence part could be down to the opposition being rusty as anything else. I'd guess that match fitness is less of an issue for a defender than a midfielder/winger who generally covers much more ground at a much faster rate. Either way, agree that we haven't looked particularly threatened defensively but don't think anyone stands out as having played well there. Offensively we are definitelu letting ourselves down.  And yes, good point about Luiz, hopefully not just trying to put himself in the shop window.

Don't think it undermines my point about McGinn though, he is still capable of performing in the PL. 

Yes he's been poor since the restart, but who hasn't in our team.

I don't fully understand why his injury seems to be taking longer to recover from than expected (players all react and recover differently) but I can see that he was our second best player before he started playing through injury.  Who's have thought that doing that, followed by a covid-impacted rehab routine might hamper his recovery,  although I do think he should still be at the races by now and for some reason he isn't

Saying he won't cut it in the PL is premature,  he already had done to a degree before he got injured.

Need to keep him if we get relegated, and I'd back him to be good enough next season whether we do or not.

1 hour ago, Laughable Chimp said:

Noticed he's the 3rd highest xA/90 out of anyone in the PL so far who's at least played a thousand minutes.

1-Kevin de Bruyne

2-Riyad Mahrez

3-Conor Hourihane.

Its higher than the likes of Mane, Firmino, hell even Grealish.

I assume his stats were boosted because he's our primary free kick taker but still, that's damn impressive. Even Tifo football when they made a video about us recently adressed Hourihane's high expected assist rate as one of things we needed to rely on to help us survive relegation.

Quite a damning indicment on our strike force, although as its a per minute stat and he hasnt been that present this season probably not as much as you'd expect.

I suspect as grealish is one of the most fouled players in the league Conor gets more than the average number of opportunities to create a goal scoring opportunity when he's on the pitch. 

Doesn't make up for his seemingly nonchalant attitude to everything else on the pitch, and for me demonstrates why he should be used as an impact sub at opportune moments

8 hours ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

 

That meme doesn't work post lockdown, althoguh given its from a Man City fan that isn't a surprise. He's been one of the most disappointing players in these last few games. Guess you can partially blame Smith for playing him out wide, but even so, the meme doesn't work yet.

I don't buy that he doesn't want to keep us up.  Maybe subconsciously he's struggling with the fact he will have to leave if he wants to fulfil the current view of what a successful football career looks like.  Maybe his desire to stay and see Villa become a force again is fighting that or any other demon that is encouraging him to leave and his mindset is taking a hit. Confidence may be hit based on our results and his respectice performances. The court appearance may be playing on his mind. His fitness will no doubt be weak, given he was getting drunk at McCormacks during lockdown,  I doubt he was fully committed to the season restarting.

If he accepts that he's moving,  or decides he's staying, it should free his mind. the court decision will probably treat him kindly being the high profile person he is. His fitness will get better.  There's every chance he becomes our saviour, or fulfils that meme in the remaining games.  

2 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

That be ok arsenal may rsst players for the league as theh are going nowhere there

That could be a godsend.  Even if they don't rest them, their star players aren't going to be throwing their all in and risking injury pre final with nothing else to play for.

The way i have predicted things to go though would see a draw against them being as useful/useless as a loss,  so we'd still probably need to beat them to avoid a last day nail biter 

I have done a predictor being fairly negative with our scores, fairly optimistic with our oppositions and have it looking like this on the last day:

16		Watford FC	37	7	12	18	33:54	-21	33
17		West Ham United	37	8	8	21	38:60	-22	32
18		AFC Bournemouth	37	7	10	20	33:57	-24	31
19		Aston Villa	37	8	7	22	38:64	-26	31
20		Norwich City	37	5	6	26	25:63	-38	21

Brighton a few points out of danger zone. 

Would mean us needing to beat West ham and then Arsenal or Everton to do us a favour against Watford or Bournemouth respectively.

Don't think my heart could take it, but if that were offered to me now I'd probably take it.

14 minutes ago, villa4europe said:

The stats for the bottom 5 are mightily impressive

Played 13

Won 0

Drawn 3

Scored 4

Conceded 20

When you think we've scored 2 of the goals and got 2 of the draws and we've been absolutely **** awful... 

West ham have us and Watford to play so it can't stay like this but we've as good a chance as anyone 

Its coming down to us v west ham on the last day isnt it