trom_borg

2 hours ago, nick76 said:

The problem is that are we there yet? every year we say it cant get any bigger but it does.  Every year from what I can remember, we keep saying I cant see this keep going, it's going to burst but it keeps growing.  Yes by natural economics it has to hit a ceiling but we just dont know what that ceiling is.  Society changing after this may be it or maybe it wont.....I'm just not sure we are at that ceiling yet. 

What I was saying re the cash cows was they are going to continue to drain this cash cow so why change.  Yes constraints are there like the economy and things like the current environment but by god, they will be trying to get back to the status quo post this to continue the gravy train.  Therefore they will cash cow it within the constraints of the economy.

Again, it depends how you view the current global financial situation. In any case I agree there are unknowns so no outcome is given here. But I think that the global economy is entering a phase not seen in almost 100 years, parts of it likely never seen before. That will also affect football in a big way. 

While I understand your point, there is a problem with your statement in bold. You can not simply adapt to new economical constraints in the way your alluding to here, because your cost structure is based on previous income streams. Those income streams will change as a result of a severe global recession/depression, but adapting your costs is not so easy, many players are on long contracts, player instalments still having to be paid ect.   

43 minutes ago, nick76 said:

Yet year after year money is getting more and more.  We thought that Sky had a monopoly on games and we had no choice but to buy their subscription and thus should be spread across multiple providers yet now I feel I'm paying much more with Sky, BT Sport and Amazon for games.  Remember when we thought Shearer was expensive at 15m, then Mbappe and Neymar went to PSG for over ten times that.  An average top end player is still quoted at a 9 figure fee and salaries which they get daily more than the average person gets a year.  I agree it's dangerous and a slight interruption causes problems but do you seriously think the people running the game (including the high end players) are going to stop this beautiful cash cow they have. 

You are essentially describing here how the financial side of football is inflated. And some of it due to the expansion to new markets, but that also cant continue in the same pace. In the end its not up to the people running the show to decide to stop the cash cow they have, reality is that they too are constrained by the limits of real economy growth and tumults in the financial economy.     

4 minutes ago, nick76 said:

How will it burst? Football will still be as popular afterwards, tv money will still be there because we pay for the tv subscriptions.  It’s still the biggest sport in the world so advertisers will still flock to spend millions.  Not sure what you are expecting to change as unless a large portion of fans back away from the game then it won’t change and fans won’t, in material numbers, move away from the game.

Well, as mentioned it depends what you believe in general about the short to mid term global/European economic future. But I think we're heading towards a global depression with high unemployment, in which things like expensive tv subscriptions will be a unaffordable luxury for an increasing amount of people. Advertisers dont have endless budgets either.  The current model is increasingly squeezing the average fan economically because, as you say, interest is still there and people pay for it. But if theres not enough new influx of money the bubble will eventually burst, it can not live on interest alone.     

14 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

Has anyone heard a single word, even a hint, from anyone involved in the game - from the league, from the PFA, from FIFA, from UEFA, from owners, from players, from pundits, from the media, anywhere at all, even a whisper of them changing the way the game works so that it's not this vulnerable in future?

We hear that we might lose clubs, we might lose leagues, players must take massive pay cuts, there might be mass redundancies, there's a threat to thousands of jobs - all on the back of one missed TV payment - but we don't hear one word about changing things to make sure it doesn't happen again.

Now is absolutely the time to be discussing ideas like a league fund where each Premier league team puts in a million a year so there's money centrally for a rainy day. Now is the time to discuss scrapping FFP and putting in salary caps and limits on agents and transfer fees. Now is the time to talk about governing football clubs by their debt, not their top line. Now is the time to talk about making it possible for success to come at sensible budgets, to reduce the reliance on endlessly growing TV deals, to reduce the risk to footballing business's that by design at the highest levels within the game operate right on the edge of their existence. 

The unseemly scramble for money has exposed the rotten core of our league; its grubby reliance on cash, the way it uses and drains fans, players and anyone who comes into contact with it, the way it's governed to ensure that every club strains for finance and that those that draw in the biggest TV numbers are protected at all times.Coronavirus has given the world a peek behind the curtain of football and what we see is sordid, crooked and massively flawed. 

All this on the back of the continuing idea that Manchester United will spend £100m on Jaden Sancho as soon as the window opens, that big clubs will make big deals, that Jim White will cream himself over the yellow ticker on deadline day, that players will earn £500k a week. All this on the idea that as soon as things are back to normal, they'll carry on exactly as they are and we'll learn absolutely nothing, change absolutely nothing.

It's all very well restarting the machine, even in empty stadiums, but those aren't the only doors that seem to be closed - and no one is talking about opening the game up.

 

 

I could not agree more, and it really is mirroring many of the dynamics of the economy as a whole. The current growth trajectory of money in football is unsustainable even in the best of times, and with the whole world now facing a tougher economic immediate future (or even long term depending what you believe) it is clear that the economic football bubble will deflate/burst. If done in a conscious and attempted controlled way, with the integrity of the game and the best interest of the majority grass-root of fans in mind, it should lead to a better and more healthy football league for all involved parties in the long run, made for those who love the game. If it is instead left to the interest of money, which is the current trend, it will likely lead to a uncontrolled collapse of some sort, and the fundamental league and club structure might forever be changed.      

1 hour ago, Rob182 said:

So he’s not a Wolves reject that we got for a small sum? It doesn’t make me less of a fan for stating that.

I thank him for contributing to the win, but lately I find him so frustrating to watch. I find his tackling average and his passing atrocious, despite him having aerial prowess. I have very little confidence when the ball is at his feet at the back, which is not a good thing for a team that plays how we do.

The highlighted part is true, but it is not a relevant point when discussing who should start between him and Engels. Finding cheap rejects that can actually step up for us is a good thing for the club and can hardly be held against Hause.

Whether his performance justifies his continuous selection is a different discussion of course, and while I agree with to some extent about his passing I think you undervalue his contribution to our back 3. Also none of us have seen Engels on the left side of a back 3, so to claim he should start there because he cost a bit more money is a strange logic to me. 

While I dont really have a skin in the game as I dont live in the uk (though I live in europe and we will all be affected), I was following this election with great interest. And as counter intuitive as it might be, I think a conservative win might be best for the left in the longer run.

There are lots of global macro economic signs pointing towards a new recession. Since 2008 no fundamentals have really changed, and with already low interest rates we lack one of the key remedies from previous recessions. Exactly how it'll play out is anyone guess but I think Brexit might work as a catalyst  and there is potentially a real shit storm waiting to hit the fan. Having the likes of Boris and Trump in charge when it happens just might make enough people wake up and see that the right wing economic ideology can and is only really serving the few, while their financial policies are fueling an increasingly detrimental boom and bust cycle. 

23 minutes ago, Pimlico_Villa said:

I can understand the success of last season fuelling the optimism for this one, but we’re pretty much playing a different game this year. The PL punishes inconsistency and technical incompetence severely, this isn’t a league where you can get by on heart. 

This is why I don’t share the optimism. For all the talk of great support and getting behind the team, that counts for nothing. We lack quality, composure, fitness, pace and tactical nouse. Beneath our starting XI we have players that have no right being anywhere near the PL and Elmo coming on on Sunday epitomises this perfectly. 

All round, Smith and these players are just too green. He said on Sunday “...to close games out by going to get the next one”, in which he is referring to goals. That to me shows he doesn’t understand the PL. To close out games in this league you don’t need to score another 5, you have to be intelligent in possession and manage the game. It’s an honourable approach, but not for the PL.

For every positive development we make, this inexperience and lack of quality means we’ll get an Arsenal-like situation. 

Unless Smith gets up the curve quickly and we supplement the team with proper quality and pace in January, then I just don’t see the optimism. 

Couldn't disagree more. I think mentality and belief will play a huge part in where we end up this season. Not only for the team and manager, but the whole club. 

For periods this season we have looked like a a team getting relegated. For other periods we have looked like a team pushing for mid table. We don't know were the penny will drop yet but Smith and his team has earned our patience and belief that we'll tilt towards the latter. Statements like Smith doesn't understand the PL or some of our players have no right being anywhere near the PL is hyperbole and can only be derived from our worst spells of this young season. 

13 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

I must have watched a different game. I thought we had some really good chances.  We really need to keep optimistic.

Our "expected goals for" stat (https://understat.com/match/11654) was 1.66 to Bournemouths 1.63. If you remove the penalty they would have 0.86. Our score of 1.66 was only beaten by Brighton, Southampton, Man City and Sheffield Utd over the weekend. 

This stat ofc dosent tell the whole picture, far from. But it does show that we indeed did create enough to have gotten something from this game on a different day. Theres obviously plenty of improvements to be made and we really need to get those major errors out of our game. But we're only two games in and we've shown enough to still warrant believe and optimism imho. Agree the fans really need to stay behind the team rather than focusing on all the negatives so early into the season...

7 minutes ago, lapal_fan said:

Someone has to miss out.  We've got McGinn, Jack, Conor, Luiz & Marvelous to fit into 3 spots. 

Someone isn't going to be playing, and Luiz cost more than Marvelous and Conor, so I'd imagine using your thinking it probably won't be him. 

Rotation due to injuries, form and cup plus just regular substitutions should give all of them a chance to make an impact this season 

In a time with hundreds of millions spent and player wages soaring it is quite frankly ridiculous that this is even an topic in football. The discussion goes to free market economics and PR ect but should really be about ethics and long term sustainability for anyone involved with any club, from fans (ticket prices ect) to low level employees.   

While I understand the sentiment to do so,  basing the judgement on how well he's done purely on how everything pans out is wrong imo. The will be multiple reasons and explanations to why some player might do well or not, or how well we do as a team. Some of those reason might be down to things that should've been foreseen, other reasons might be very hard or impossible to predict.   

No matter how we'd approach this window there is a big element of risk involved. With my limited knowledge of players available and their value around the world I cant see how we could have done our business much better tbh. If it all comes crashing down and most of our signings turns out to be shit the management team will get some deserved criticism ofc. But even then it would be hard to argue against that we've had a sensible and  clear strategy and goal behind our business which is more than you can say about the last 10+ years. Even if the execution falls short I'll give them that.  

10 minutes ago, KenjiOgiwara said:

It's almost a certainty to me it's Abraham. We wanted to retain our loan signings, and we need another striker. The striker we sign must also be able to hold his own alone up top, and Abraham dings every requirement. Even if Lampard rates him, he got them playing 4-2-3-1 and Giroud must be ahead in the pecking order. 

You mean the same Abraham who started last night for Chelsea in their last pre-season game? As Chelsea cant even replace him theres no way he would come. Honestly dont think he would want either, he seems very happy having a go there this season under Lampard

3 hours ago, KenjiOgiwara said:

Ofc. it's not. Whether people have gotten around to it or not, we have to think as a PL team, and he does not look like a PL level talent. Not even remotely. We can hope for a loan move where he develops massively to the point he becomes a PL level footballer, but personally I think that's highly unlikely, cause he simply doesn't seem to have the ability. In fact I'd be surprised if a championship team ended up playing him regularly. Most likely league one is his level, even if he didn't look like a wiz kid during his loan at pompey. 

We'll have to agree to disagree here. But I do find it a odd thing to say that a 20year old with 2 PL games and 37 championship games under his belt has no talent what so ever. Dont think many people would say that about him 2-3 years ago. Now based on current form and skill as well as the trendline on his development I very much agree that it seems more and more unlikely that his talent will transcend into a Premier League quality player. But I'd not write him off yet and I hope the club wont either. 

3 hours ago, nick76 said:

but what is the alternative? it's not writing him off as a player generally but currently as a Villa player. 

With El Ghazi, Trez, Jota, RHM and even Kodja in that role then Green is well down the pecking order and that's no good to him.  He has talent but not what we need at the moment so we can send him out on loan and another year goes by or we can sell him. 

We could regret selling him like we did Cahill but there are ten's of players that we havent regretted selling.  We can only have a certain size squad and while we are splashing the cash at the moment, holding onto playing that is unlikely to play when we have a full compliment of players at the end of the transfer window it seems unfair to hold onto him.

We should sell with a buy back clause like what seems to be happening with Luiz.  Seems a good middle ground to me.

Sensible post and not what I was aiming at mate. Though I'd not put RHM ahead of him at the winger depth chart based on twp pre-season games against lower league opposition. Anyway it's a big season for both of them and ideally they'll both get a decent run out on loan at a lower level. 

4 hours ago, villalad21 said:

I really don't see any talent in there.

All i see is an average Championship footballer.

A clear contradiction on its own.

Whether Green will ever be a Premier League footballer is of course very much up for discussion, but at the end of the day none of us know yet. And football is full of evidence that you can never be certain about anything, there is so much affecting players development and performances at various stages during their career. Now its totally fine to speculate and share opinions of course, thats what forums like this is for. And I very much agree its looking less likely now than it did 2 years ago. But the need for many on here to completely write him off at the current stage is simply baffling to me. 

31 minutes ago, AvfcRigo82 said:

Taylor is not good enough for Premier League level sadly.

Lansbury has played about 5 games in 2 seasons off the top of my head, Premier League is far more demanding.

I am confident we will have a squad, just a better one than we currently have come August 31st. 

I agree, but as a newly promoted club we cant expect to have "premier league" quality throughout the squad. The squad will undergo a transition, with big changes obviously coming already this summer, but we cant do it all at once. Also, there is no guarantee that the replacements will be top quality either, Lansburys potential replacement f.ex cant be promised more than a back up role due to the competition and only a certain caliber of player would accept that. 

Your last sentence is obvious, but we need half a new team just to fill the squad at this point so I'd focus on filling all the gaping holes before we start thinking of replacing our back up players. Unless someone throws silly money at them ofc....  

9 hours ago, AvfcRigo82 said:

Same here.

Gardner, Bjarnasson, Lansbury, Tshibola, etc.

I'd also add Taylor to that list as he is not all that and I think he could struggle in the PL!?

Id keep Taylor and Lansbury around for another season, we need a squad.

1 hour ago, AvfcRigo82 said:

Was hoping to come across a ticket for this but highly unlikely.

Instead, toying with heading to Wembley now anyway and making a day of it down there and find a good pub showing the game and join in the atmosphere.

Get the early train which goes direct to London which only takes an hour.

Anyone else venturing down planning similar?

 

Yeah this is my plan exactly, I'll take the night bus from Amsterdam arriving Monday morning, heading back home on the same bus late in the evening. Chances of getting a ticket, at least for a ok price, seems less than slim but I'm going anyway as I really want to spend that day with the rest of the Villa faithful! So hoping there will be a big crowd watching in a pub somewhere near the ground.

Will the above mentioned Green man also show the match? I was there before the FA cup final a few years back to enjoy some pre-match atmosphere,  which was great, but I ended up watching the game alone somewhere closer to city center. Dont remember why, maybe I had some other reasons for heading there , but can't recall seeing any screens at the Green man that day.... 

Stepping in the line behind @Czechladand @GarethRDR Just booked a 22hour bus round trip to spend the 27th in London, really want to spend that day with fellow Villans!  Usually get to travel to UK for one game each year but I have yet to this season so chances of getting tickets is prob slim, though needless to say I'd be forever grateful if anyone with a reference could help me out. Regardless though I'm over the moon we'll have another go a Wembley and I can't wait to be there (or thereabouts )

I really enjoy MOMS but cant compare it to much except the holtecast, which I dont like much. Will check out the villa view!

5 hours ago, QldVilla said:

The main issue I have with FFP is that it is indescriminate.

Villa played in every season of the PL before being relegated. They operated financially at a far higher level to nearly every other club in England, to the point were Villa were one of the Top 20 clubs in Europe for turnover. Then to say you have to get your books in order within 3 years after 30 years at the top level is not reasonable.

Don't get me wrong, Villa have been run poorly for many years, but the financial implications of Villa being relegated are far greater than 95% of clubs in England, and something that FFP fails to recognise.

The amount of money we've wasted since relegation for a quick return to PL is criminal. FFP didn't fail to recognize it in my view, rather we failed to adapt to the situation and think long term. With that said I don't think FFP is working well either and it's not really helping creating a "level" playing field. 

Thought he was lively when he came on and made us more of a threat from both sides. Beat his man a couple of times with a neat first touch do get in good positions. Squared a ball for Grealish who should have done better. Needs to work a lot on his crossing and passing and he loses the ball to easy sometimes, but I genuinely dont understand so many fans are ready to write him and declare he's not good enough. AA is better at keeping the ball but thats also often cause he picks the easy option.   

Any news on the extent of his injury?

When Albrighton was the same age as Andre is now he had made 3 sub appearances for the first team. I know its in a different division but still. The jury is still out on Green and he needs to improve many aspects of his game but hes also been injured a lot and needs to build both confidence and consistency as mentioned above. Maybe he'll be a bust in the end but why some Villa fans are happy to write him off and want to sell for peanuts in the summer is beyond me....