TartarugaJones

Mate, Soldado, Paulinho, Capua, keeping hold of Bale maybe... but Stephen Ireland... we're not at that level yet!!!

Just like Benteke was going to leave when he handed in a transfer request? I suspect Benteke will prove an exception. Can't see Rooney, Bale or Suarez being at their current clubs by the end of the month. Kudos to Spurs if they hang onto Bale! We'll sell him if Real stump up, and rightly so! I just can't see them doing it...

Just like Benteke was going to leave when he handed in a transfer request?

Nicolas Otamendi Btw if you play a lone striker and you've got 25+ goals from Bale, having Defoe and Adebayor as back-up to Soldado does not make for a weak strike-force! I'd say Benteke, Weismann, and Abonglohor (sp?) is pretty good, but it's not as good as what I just quoted!

Than Tottenham maybe... or Chigwell...

I know what you mean, but there's a few of us on a Spurs forum who've been arguing for the last year or so, that with the way AVB likes his teams to play it's a bit artificial to think as defense as totally distinct from attack. Basically AVB wants to play as much football in the opposition half as he can, he's also a strong focus on transitions - when possession changes hand - where they happen, and lightning counter attacks. Basically he think that the higher up the pitch you can win possession, and the more often you can win it back, the more goals you will score and the fewer you'll concede. This is why he's prepared to risk the odd goal conceded in return for the benefits of playing a high-line. I remember a match we played against you a couple of seasons back, a quite dreadful performance by your lot, in which you couldn't get the ball out of your half. Our CBs played the game on the half-way line, and the entire match was basically played in your half. That's the kind of thing AVB's aiming for. So with Paulinho, Sandro, Dembele, and Parker he has four CMs of various attributes, but who all share a high work-rate, mobility, and an eye for a tackle. He'll be hoping that with that midfield teams will have the life squeezed out of them, we'll be winning the ball up the pitch and with regularity and that with the power of Bale, the dynamic play of Chadli/Lennon, and the goal-scoring quality of Soldado we'll be primed to exploit that advantage. It's worth noting that in Bale and Soldado you've got the potential for 60 goals a season. Paulinho is also no slouch, a player in the Lampard mode, though much better of the ball. Problems with his missus, and an affection for his former club. It's worth noting that the transfer was amicable, he asked if he could go, Hamburg paid a price we were looking for, and we said yes. Certainly wasn't to do with CL or lack of ambition from Spurs, as he was transferring to a club which had finished just above the relegation zone and who were in big financial difficulties (in fact the owner had to step in the with the readies to buy VDV). He was a big miss for us last season though, and I'm not sure I'd have let him go. the feeling was that he maybe wasn't a AVB type player though.

Walker's got an amazing engine and a great heart, but he lacks a bit of intelligence, nouse, and attacking quality. The thing is though, he's only just turned 23, and now under a decent coach so there's time to develop those aspects of his game. Haven't seen or heard enough about Lowton to form an opinion on him. As I understand it Guzman was your best player, Vlaar also had a decent season, and Benteke was a beast. Weimann was also good. So that's almost half the team having very good seasons. Considering the team did very poorly last year over all, there must be at least some players who did shit?

I think we're a bit more than that...! Lloris (one of the top keepers in the world. Captain of France.) Walker (decent young RB would grace any team outside the top five) Vertonghen (Dutch and Ajax player of the year, Captain of Ajax, great first season for us) Kaboul (Our best CB. Injured for a long time though) Rose (Sunderland's outfield player of the season, promosing LB) Paulinho (Brazil international box to box CM, club record signing when we got him) Sandro (My favourite Spurs players, Brazil international DM, one of the best tacklers and interceptors in English football) Dembele (Belgian international CM. great dribbler, but can tackle also, needs to shoot more) Bale Soldado (Spanish international striker, just turned 28 so in his prime, Valencia Captain, last three season has scored 25, 27, and 30 goals) Chadli (Belgian international wing forward. Lots of potential.) Subs: Townsend, Parker, Defoe, Adebayor, Naughton, Dawson, BAE, Holtby, Siggurdsson, Huddlestone, Lennon, Livermore, Carroll

You're right nothing similar has happened to Villa this summer!

Remember when I said I hope the Benteke saga doesn't get nasty, that we or any other prospective buyer don't play games...? Well if you want to see game playing see the Bale saga Players, owners, management, agents all briefing friends in the media against Spurs in the cause of engineering a hostile move, a compliant, influential local rag such as doesn't exist in this country outside of Liverpool, and absolutely no offer. Not an official one. Not an unofficial one. Nothing...

Assuming Messi & Ronaldo have a tier all of their own, I'd have Bale in the next tier behind them. I think he's every bit the talent of anyone else and if someone has the edge on him, it's certainly not a different tier of talent. IMHO. Perhaps. The whole tier-age is always quite a difficult one. On his current form then he's worth as much as anyone else in the world, I just think that without the long range goals, he comes back into the realms of normality somewhat. Where as someone like Iniesta is just quality, through and through, no matter what he's up to. That said, it doesn't look like Bale's goal scoring is going to stop anytime soon. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-48EfGjpdk

What did we do wrong in the Benteke transfer? How much did you pay Genk for Benteke? Did they want to sell him? Did he make a transfer request and go on strike to get his move? How much did Chelsea pay SL to transfer a young striker out of the same league? I didn't mean to imply you did anything "wrong" regarding Benteke (I won't refer to it as a transfer because that's exactly what it isn't). Pathetic lowballing was more a commentary on how I perceive the first 80% of most of the actual transfers Spurs do make. Fair enough. Bit hung-over this morning and feeling grumpy

What did we do wrong in the Benteke transfer? How much did you pay Genk for Benteke? Did they want to sell him? Did he make a transfer request and go on strike to get his move? How much did Chelsea pay SL to transfer a young striker out of the same league?

Lloris Walker Kaboul Vertonghen Rose Sandro Paulinho Dembele Bale Soldado Chadli Subs: Adebayor, Defoe, Dempsey, Dawson, BAE, Parker, Holtby, Gylfi, Lennon, Townsend etc... Kaboul is our best CB, better than Vertonghen for instance, and far superior to Dawson, he was a massive miss for us last season. 4th, 5th, 4th, 5th. 70, 62, 69, 72

I don't think they've bid at all. We had exactly the same kind of reporting last year regards Modric and then when they finally did bid it was very public and for nothing like as much as the press had been saying!

I don't disagree with that!!

Seen a few Karma/boot on the other foot type comments, also stuff about press being against Villa and pro London clubs, about Levy being shown up as a bad negotiator and also world record offers been made. I thought I'd offer my tuppence worth. Since Carrick moved to Utd all those years ago we've had this kind of thing every summer just about, first Carrick, then Keane and Berbatov, then Modric for consecutive years, (VDV too), now Bale and AVB, next year it will be someone else... we've had a long time to get used to the pecking order, more attractive/rich/successful/big clubs will try to poach the best players of the up and coming teams. To do so they will of course first contact the agents, they will seek to establish whether the player wants to come and on what terms, they will then enquire whether the club wants to sell, and if the answer is no, or a ridiculous price, they will try and get that player to make a fuss. They will promise agents the world, and if they have contacts in the press they will call in favours or promise future scoops in return for favourable articles. Agents will of course also brief favoured journalists. This is the rule of the transfer, all clubs do it (yes even Villa), it's just that unless it's for a high profile player, from a well-funded club the fuss will not make headlines except in the local press. In the case of Madrid of course they take it to the absolute extreme, they almost own their local rag, they have players and management coming out talking about targeted players almost every day. In the case of us and Benteke I don't think we acted disgracefully, I didn't hear any on the record or off the record quotes from Spurs sources, I saw an agent playing your club very well to get his client either a pay-rise, or a move to another club where he could have that pay-rise. I saw a negotiation between us and Villa in which Villa named a price they were willing to sell at which was a price which we were unwilling to pay. Business like, fair and no problems if it doesn't happen from either side. In terms of Karma, there is no Karma, we're under pressure to sell from one of the World's biggest clubs and it's not pleasant, but it happens every year, and we're used to it by now, just as our world didn't fall apart when those other players left so it won't when Bale leaves (and he will, whether this year or next). On the Levy negotiator thing, before he took over we'd never finished in the top 6, in the last 8 years we've finished 5th, 5th, 8th, 11th, 4th, 5th, 4th, 5th, we've improved against our rivals, but we spend hundreds of millions less than them. Buying and selling is how the team improves. The team we have today is stronger than any team we've had during the PL era. Levy, imo, is our biggest asset. As far as the Real offer for Bale is concerned, I don't believe they've made an offer, and if/when they do I'm almost certain it will be around the £55m - £60m mark.

Sorry for the belated pedantry here, but in this conundrum you turn your chance of winning the Ferrari into a 66.67% chance by switching, not a 50% chance (obviously the probabilities have to add up to 1). You should also have stated that it is agreed in advance that the quiz master will open one of the other doors to reveal a goat after your initial choice, and then give you the chance to "stick or switch", otherwise the situation is not clear. It's a nice example though. Perhaps anyone who is going to make decisions on transfer dealings should be tested with this problem. You need someone who can at least answer it correctly if you're hoping to bring in the football equivalents of Ferraris rather than a bunch of goats. Yes you're right!

Other than the "Bale hasn't come out with any demands" (that we know of) it's exactly like the Benteke situation and I hope you get **** over. Creative journalists "He will strike" and "He won't turn up" Levy and Spurs used the papers. Made up quotes appeared. This spread from your original source. So I am laughing hard at Spurs now, funny how things can come round and bite so hard, isn't it? So yes, I hope you get screwed over big time. Bloody hell!!

What is this "Correct" price you speak of? The correct valuation is the estimation of a player's worth given all the variables. That's all. There's no "correct" price, but then a bit more on top of that... if you think the player's worth a bit more then that's the "Correct" price and the price which has him worth a bit less is the incorrect price. The point being made is that once calculated the correct price doesn't change just because the negotiations have got close to agreement, you don't just add on a couple of million because you've put a lot of work into it and it would be gutting to walk away. Most people are human and would find it very difficult to walk away from something they've worked hard for, and really want, and almost have, but if the price exceeds your estimated worth of the thing then you should not buy it. I'll add that although straightforward this stuff seems extraordinarily difficult for many to grasp because it goes against the way our brains are wired*. Master it and there's a good chance you'll be a winner, don't and you're relying on luck. * Similar to the old conundrum where the quiz master tells you of the three closed doors arranged in front of you behind one is a Ferrari and behind the other two a goat. He asks you to chose a door, you do so, and he promptly opens one of the other doors to reveal a goat. Now there are two doors left, and he asks if you want to stick with your decision or chose the other door. What should you do? Answer: Always switch, only by switching to you turn a 33.33% chance of winning the Ferrari into a 50% chance. Most people can't see the difference and think that whatever you do it's a 50% chance and so often they'll stick to their original choice! Firstly, the correct price is where supply meets demand, where both parties agree to a price they are willing to pay/sell for. I disagree, you seem to be putting an absolute valuation on a player, however that is not the case. One player can be worth a lot more to certain teams than others, for example Soldado going to City or Spurs, at City he would be a bit part players and maybe get 10 goals but at Spurs he would be the main striker and be expected to hit 20+. As BOF has alluded to Spurs inability to purchase a goal scoring striker in Janaury has more than likely cost them champions league football this year. You talk about walking away like it is some divine power that Levy possess, where the actual case is he can not afford to pay for Soldado, he has no choice, he can not make an offer that is acceptable to the selling club, Spurs are not in a position of power here, as I alluded to earlier they are in the market for highly valuable assets which people do not want to part with, they seem to be wasting valuable time pottering around with offers they know are not going to be accepted. How much is Christian Benteke worth? Supply didn't meet demand, but the player has a value. How much is Messi worth? He isn't valueless because nobody's ever bought or sold him. Of course players are worth different things to different clubs!! This is exactly the point I made. A selling club may hold their player in higher esteem than the buying club in which case the sale won't be made. You seem to be talking about an efficient market pricing something accurately, however this theory only applies when there are lots of sellers and buyers of the same thing being bought and sold all the time. You'd struggle to make the case that there's an efficient market in football players, therefore the price at which a player is bought or sold will likely say little about that players true value. Consider a bookmaker selling heads on a toss of the coin at 1.89, day in and day out punters will buy that bet because they don't know any better, you go into any bookmaker today and see the price on 50/50 Tennis match and it will be around 1.89 for A and 1.89 for B, that is that if the punter wins by backing A or B he will get back 89p for his £1 staked, so there's supply meeting demand but it says nothing about 'Value', 'Value' would have to be worked out at home using a theorem, and of course in this case it's very straightforward Even money equals the 'Correct' price, and anything above 2.0 'Value'. Levy's job then is to work out what the correct price is, and then try to buy his player for less than that, and certainly no more. If he gets his calculation wrong and over-pays, and he does this regularly, a million here and a million there, then just as with the mug punter in my example above, he'd gradually lose all his money.

Good stuff. I'm not sure there's a huge jump to become title contenders, but accept there might be. This season's certainly going to be very interesting with a number of the big spenders undergoing major transformation. I also don't think there's a huge fall for us to slide back into mid-table, nor, for example, for Villa to rise out of it. I'm a big believer in looking at a team entire rather than individuals and think it's the combination of skills and ability expertly marshalled by the coach, as well as a recruitment policy that understands what the team requires and can identify the players to meet those requirements. Borussia Dortmund is the model, and also Arsenal of the Wenger years. You can of course short-cut all of that by simply throwing masses of money at it, getting players you know are excellent and getting lots of them, as well as a top coach, and then letting him put them together into a winning team. Even with mediocre coaches like Mancini, or Grant you can get results like this. If you're a club of the size of Villa or Spurs though, then there's no short-cut, there's no pushing the boat out because you haven't got a boat to push to push out - we'll succeed or fail by our wits and judgement! Perhaps we'll fail, but if we do I think it will because the job was very difficult to pull off, rather than because someone else could have come in and run the club and done a better job. In my opinion our biggest asset is not Bale, and not AVB, but is Levy.

No disagreement there. It's what he does from here onwards that'll be interesting, assuming Spurs are not happy to sit 5th/6th forever. If you are happy with that then he might be fine for you. So far we've continued to make progress the trend has been clearly up. Last season was our best points haul ever etc. We haven't finished below 5th in five years, it's been 4th, 5th, 4th, 5th.

Well another way of putting it is this. Levy's inflexibility in such matters will become an issue to Spurs going forward. If you look at the basic model of price though you see Levy is going to have to pay more than what would be considered the correct price. Spurs are in a situation where they have huge demand for a striker, they currently have an aging Jermain Defoe & Adebayor who failed to perform anywhere near to the level he did the season before. Other than that they have youth players with (I'm guessing) no first team experience. The teams around them have numerous striking options (Lukaku, Ba, Torres, Aguero, Dzeko, Negredo, Jovetic, Van Persie, Rooney, Hernandes, Wellbeck, Podolski, Wallcott, Giroud, Sanogo). Therefore, on this analysis alone Spurs need at least one striker if not two. This of course in economics means that price will move up. Then of course, there is the other side of the coin, supply. With all the players Spurs have been linked to they have all been goal scorers, this alone, is a very rare commodity but the fact the want one of the top ones in the world makes it even rarer. The you have the whole idea that the selling club, Valencia or Villa for that matter, do not want to sell. This is obviously all going to push the price up. Tartuga talks about Spurs getting a fair price, but that is all well and good if Spurs are the selling club, but if they want something they don't own they have to pay what the club wants. What is this "Correct" price you speak of? The correct valuation is the estimation of a player's worth given all the variables. That's all. There's no "correct" price, but then a bit more on top of that... if you think the player's worth a bit more then that's the "Correct" price and the price which has him worth a bit less is the incorrect price. The point being made is that once calculated the correct price doesn't change just because the negotiations have got close to agreement, you don't just add on a couple of million because you've put a lot of work into it and it would be gutting to walk away. Most people are human and would find it very difficult to walk away from something they've worked hard for, and really want, and almost have, but if the price exceeds your estimated worth of the thing then you should not buy it. I'll add that although straightforward this stuff seems extraordinarily difficult for many to grasp because it goes against the way our brains are wired*. Master it and there's a good chance you'll be a winner, don't and you're relying on luck. * Similar to the old conundrum where the quiz master tells you of the three closed doors arranged in front of you behind one is a Ferrari and behind the other two a goat. He asks you to chose a door, you do so, and he promptly opens one of the other doors to reveal a goat. Now there are two doors left, and he asks if you want to stick with your decision or chose the other door. What should you do? Answer: Always switch, only by switching to you turn a 33.33% chance of winning the Ferrari into a 50% chance. Most people can't see the difference and think that whatever you do it's a 50% chance and so often they'll stick to their original choice!

Well another way of putting it is this. Levy's inflexibility in such matters will become an issue to Spurs going forward. If Levy's method for valuing a player is rubbish then that will be an issue going forward. What we can say is that since ENIC took over the club has made great strides in comparison to our peers, and it has done so spending considerably less than most of them and within the club's means. That he's done well in the past is no guarantee that he will in the future, but every single window for the past four or five years we get the same "Levy's missed a trick!", "Why does he **** around?", "Why doesn't he just pay what they want?", "We'll be back to mid-table next season thanks to him...", and yet over all it hasn't come to pass. Perhaps this will be the turning point and from here on it's downhill all the way, but given the track record and where we are now I think you'd have to be pretty skewed to think it. I don't think I've talked about a fair price in the context of this conversation btw?

What Tartaruga isn't taking into account is that if a player is likely to be the difference between getting something like CL football or not getting it, where your income will go up by a minimum of £20m or as much as £50m then it does make sense to maybe spend £2m or £3m more than you think that player is worth. Levy won't do that and that's why at some point when Spurs really try to make that big step I think he goes from being an asset to being a hindrance on them. Bent kept us up so he's a bad example. We'd still be paying the price if we hadn't bought him. If you'd said Hutton and Ireland then I'd agree That's part of the valuation process though, you try and factor in all these variables using whichever formula you use and you come out with a sum you think the player is worth. Then you negotiate to purchase him for no more than that figure and in fact for as little as possible. What you don't do is pay more than that, even if it's 'only' a couple of million more or whatever, simply because you're close and you feel like you've put in lots of work to get this close. The absolute skill is in trusting your valuation, sticking to it, and walking away if it's not met.