CVByrne

I can see it happening and we doing a secret deal with Chelsea. They pay what would look a very big fee for Duran and we do the same for Gallagher. This way we both book profits now (which we need) and spread cost of the new signings over 5 years. 

We then sell JJ to Newcastle or Spurs

45 minutes ago, rubberman said:

Thanks, that's clear. My point was that the 10yr ranking still gives £10+m more to say Man utd if they qualify next season. 

It's all good money and great for us, but giving out extra money just because a club was good in the past stinks to me. All the prize money should be based on the current season only. I suppose the argument would be that the 'big' names are what attract the viewers and therefore the money, but it is not a level playing field we joining. 

Yes, but the old format was less favourable to new clubs from top Leagues like us. We qualified for CL at the right time, the new format. Germany and Italy also suffer from having an extra team in it as the total points they get is divided by 8 teams for the coefficient average and PL is by 7. 

48 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Its such a great feeling to be in the champions league. Lets face it the last 10 years have been very up and down but when lerner gave up on us we entered a slow and horrific decline that led to our relegation.  A few bad years in the championship then we returned to where we belong the Premier league. Each season since we have been back we have finished higher and got better. But to get to the champions league this soon, in unais 1st full season is incredible. Dont think many of us would have thought this years ago. 

Its going to be tough but lets enjoy the ride and get behind the guys even if we do not get past the group pahse. Lets be proud we got there 

UTV

It was the period at the start of 2010 when we dropped from from 4th to 7th and kept drawing games. City were the new big spenders, Spurs head leapfrogged us. Then losing to City 2nd last game. It's just been downhill since start of 2010 to 2019. That decade and then the recovery under NSWE, Deano and now Emery. 

I just want us to be competing in the top 7/8 and always in Europe. If we don't make the CL we can win the Europa etc.. 

47 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Probably worth keeping archer alone for that reason but I think we will move him on unfortunately 

We only have 10 games to play before we can register up to 3 new players if we made it further than the knock out phase. We only need 22 or 23 players. Plus a few U21s we keep around before sending on Loan in Jan.

52 minutes ago, rubberman said:

Thanks. Dear lord that's complicated (for the payment part). While we benefit from England being no1 which gives us a part ranking of 4th, that is then combined with our 10 Yr coefficient has us right near the bottom, so we'll end up being paid in the middle. 

It's still all heavily weighted to reward the same clubs every time as long as they can sneak in qualification. 

Not really, it's shifted to be weighted towards the best Leagues. So for example 75% of the media earnings is in European pillar - Premier League is top ranked. So we end up 4th ranked of the top pillar. We are then ranked 30th in the co-efficient pillar. So our average of the two is 17, we end up then ranked with the other teams and would probably end up around 14th lets say in the ranking. So being from the top League is a huge benefit in the new system financially. So in the example we would be 14th ranked we receive 23 shares and City would receive 36 shares. In the example where it's €960k per share we would get €22m, While we'd be among the bottom clubs in the 10 year coefficient so lets say get 2 shares of €320k.

We then get €18.6m for the League phase qualification. Then €2.1m per win and 0.7m per draw. Let's say we win 3 games and draw 2 that's another €7.7m, we then end mid table and get 18 shares in the league ranking (18 x €0.275m) = €4.95m and an added €1m for making it to the knockout stages. 

So in prize money alone we should be seeing around €55m or £47.3m. That's before the kicker in our sponsorship deals and the income from 5 home Champions League games. If we then qualify for round of 16 we get another €11m, then another €12.5m for QFs etc..

Now remember this is additional prize money, we will be paying players additional wages in terms of bonuses for qualifying for the CL so a large chunk of the new revenue is gone on higher salaries.

48 minutes ago, MaVilla said:

Where are we with our English player quota for the CL?

If i have read correctly:

• UEFA rules require us to register 25 players,
• 8 of which need to be homegrown.
• 4 of these homegrown players have to be 'club-trained' (up to a max requirement of 8 )
• The other 4 can have been trained by other English academies. A club homegrown (CHG) that has been in the club for 3 years between the ages of 15-21

 

4 x "club trained" homegrown - up to a max of 8

• Ramsey

 

4 x "other" English players (trained by other club between 15 and 21) - if cant fill above quota.

• Konsa
• Mings
• Martinez
• Rogers

 

I havent included club trained homegrown who arent part of the actual first team and play regularly, just to see where we are in terms of a competitive squad.

So im assuming, based on the above thats a 22 man squad, unless we add 3 x youth players in there, like Kellyman, KKH etc (assuming they class as club trained, not sure they do tbh).

 

Which of our current youth batch class as "club trained"?, or will class as it by the time the CL squad is announced? ie: 3 years at Villa between 15 and 21 yrs old.

 

Tim now qualifies along with Ramsey. Sinisalo and Archer too if we choose to keep either around. 

14 minutes ago, bobzy said:

That’s fine - but it’d be daft to get rid of a very decent left back purely for minimal savings and at the risk that his replacement doesn’t perform when we’re heading into a (hopefully) very competitive season.

It’d make more sense to get rid of Mings as he played 0 part of this season - but I don’t think we do that either. 

My expectation is we are signing Hermoso who can play LB, LCB and central of a back 3. Which gives us added cover in the full back positions. Moreno returning to full fitness and then we have Sousa as young cover. I think we will often go for RB as the attacking side in games also. I think with 5 CBs and 4 FBs (two being younger) we are covered. 

I think Watkins will start so he can try get to 20 goals and keep his top assists. 

I think we'll see KKH and Kellyman get mins off the bench. 

6 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

I think if we are street smart this summer, we can really continue the momentum.  Clearly we havw some FFP issues and a player or two may need to bbe sold. 

 

The high wages is i think the biggest issue so trying to get coutinho off the books would be a good start along with Dendoncker hause and chambers who wont really being in much. (Notice 3 of the 4 are gerrard signings)

Id probably be ok selling carlos and cash dont think either is really good enough tbh as 1st choice and cant see either wanting stick around as backup.

Digne id keep but if the wages are a big issue then i would reluctantly let him go.

Also olsen can go too just do not rate him at all.

Yes here is the total cost of the expensive players we will look to move on.

Dendonker = £8m per year

Coutinho = £11.25m per year

Digne = £12m per year

Carlos = £12m per year

If we can move those on and only book a loss on their remaining book values of  ~8-9m that would be a massive effort by Monchi. That would save ~£35m in cost in next seasons accounts. I think Loans with Obligations to buy will be used instead of straight sales 

15 minutes ago, macandally said:

I get the wages, but for the life of me cannot see why people are falling over themselves to sell Digne

It's down to the squad cost. ie what is the cost of Digne per year on our books and that is what is used in the UEFA squad cost calculation and PSR. Digne costs £12m per season while Watkins for example costs us £9m, Moreno £7m etc..

We need to view the squad based on how much they can perform on the pitch vs how much "space" they take up in our squad cost. We get their relative worth then. Carlos is another expensive player at £12m per year while Mings is just over half that cost at about £6.2m

On 16/05/2024 at 23:41, Awol said:

Thought all season that we needed our own version of Odegaard in midfield. Turns out this lad is better! 

You often see this type of skew when you have a top playing in a weaker side. Everything goes through them so they are on the ball more than they would be at a top club and as such get more chances to make key passes and assist. 

9 minutes ago, AVTuco said:

If we play Konsa, Pau, Digne and Ty and a high line in CL... good luck with that.

Digne will leave, Konsa and Mings are perfect for the high line. Pau is not quick and so it's who is the 4th player, Moreno or Cash and we're fine

3 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

I think as a priority we need an additional midfielder to provide the cover we didn't have when Kamara was injured, we could do with a CB to cover the loss of Lenglet, and possibly another one as insurance if Mings doesn't come back and because Carlos isn't getting any younger, and I think we need a right back depending on where the club see the Nedeljkovic in his development. If there's an opportunity we might take a left back due to the age of the two we have, again dependent on where the club see Sousa in his development, and I think we could do with an attacking midfielder who can open up a defence, both as cover or as a replacement for Buendia depending on how he comes back.

So for me, CB, CB, LB, RB, DM, AM would be the positions I'd like to see us looking at - although if one of January's youngsters is ahead of schedule we might already have one of those positions covered.

I would split this into 2 categories, 1) squad gap and 2) replacement of a player. I think CB and CDM are squad gaps as in we should sign players as we have and need to add to who we have in those positions. I'd say we are probably an attacking players short too the s/s / 10. IF we say Rogers/JJ - LM, Bailey/Diaby - RM, Watkins/Duran - CF and then Buendia/New as the AMC/10.

However I see replacing Carlos, Cash or Digne as one out and one in. I think with Nedeljkovic and Cash along with Konsa RB is stocked. Same if we have 5 CBs in relation to Carlos. Also LB with Digne/Moreno and Hermoso/Pau. 

2 minutes ago, AVTuco said:

We need pace at the back more than anything. We ship in far too many goals.

We also need to make sure Coutinho is off the books.

Then sign some bench warmers for injury insurance and we're set.

Mings is very very quick. So hopefully he hasn't lost that. McGinn and JJ said three quickest players at Villa were Leon, Ollie and Ty in a video a couple of years ago.

Moreno of last season was always with recovery runs back saving us too. 

4 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Barkley is as technical as Unai needs from a player, with a hunger to fulfil a career that promised so much, to come play in a team that suits him. And he’s free. Other than the injuries, I can see it. Will play more than Zaniolo I’d suspect. 

I don't think we are interested in Barkley, but my views are simple. If Emery and Monchi want a player I have complete faith in their decision making over opinions of myself and other football fans. I trust them completely. 

We cannot be going into Champions League without an experienced CDM so whatever way Emery and Monchi fill that gap (loan, short term contract to experienced player, signing a quality CDM to compete with Kamara) it needs to be filled.

2 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

So it looks like we'll start with some money making outs.

Here's hoping that someone out there was impressed with Archer's season at Sheffield Utd.

 

Yes, we have the UEFA squad cost rules to abide by which is 80% for this year. We officially have Dendonker, Coutinho coming back, both on big wages. We have Chambers and rpobably Digne to move on too. Archer is coming back and that's amortisation + higher wages than he was on. We'll likely get our free transfer in, hopefully it's Hermosso then look at outgoings then move for targets in July/August.

We don't have much gaps in the squad if we get our players back fit. It's really CM and CB where we need to sign 2 players. From there we are in good place now we added 3 players for first team in Jan, GK, LM and RB. 

It takes pennies to move the odds in those markets. 

One thing I will say about Ross is the position change to CDM has really worked for him and he's shown some great form this season. He deserves to stay in PL 

9 hours ago, Kingman said:

So how many games we play in this new group format?

We should be aiming for making the playoffs and playing 10 games. Basically we need to be better than 25% of the clubs to achieve that. I think we have the strongest squad out of the bottom two pots and better than a few in pot 2 also like Burgge and Shaktar. We also benefit from the fact we can't draw the English sides who are 3 of the toughest teams in Europe. 

Finally the new format makes it even better for Coefficient FC as anomalies like United and Newcastle exiting Europe before Christmas is less likely. Spurs, Chelsea and Newcastle will also be good teams to have in Europa and Conference, especially Newcastle who will want to win the Conference League

I don't think Luiz will leave because I don't think there is a market for him. Who is looking for the creative 6/8 who can afford to pay 80m+ and wouldn't be going for Guimaraes who is slightly the better player and at a club who needs to sell probably one top player.

The interesting thing with Luiz is if he signs a new contract or not. This summer / autumn is when we should be offering him one. 

I still think of we need a sale Ramsey is less key to us than Luiz. Take the Villa fan emotion out of it like Emery and Monchi will and that's the player. Cash is another who could bring in a decent fee too £20m+ 

14 minutes ago, Tom13 said:

Absolutely gutted for him missing the Euros. Was a monster in our win at Arsenal.

Yeah he was absolutely brilliant that game. 

51 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

The draw for the first knockout rounds are seeded though. 

Based on where you come in the group. Not based on any pre tournament seeding 

1 hour ago, villaglint said:

That is my understanding as well. But its left me wondering what the point of the seeding pots is? Do they have any bearing on anything?

Well yes you play two teams from each pot. That's what they're for. It's not seeding to draw your group.

You can still get a tough draw in those and play Madrid instead of Leipzig etc..

5 hours ago, Zatman said:

I think is a slight chance we could go to pot 3 as some of the teams above us have play offs

The pots are irrelevant really. All teams play 2 teams from each pot. Basically people just don't want to draw us as we're a tough team for pot 4

51 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

I think he's coming into the squad to challenge for the RB position from the get go. Not a chance he would've signed for us with other clubs sniffing about if we had intentions of sending him out on loan. It would make absolutely no sense whatsoever when your already playing in the CL and an international at such a young age. 

Yes like Duran, he's coming to compete for first team minutes

Barca would have to sell Torres for more than £25m to book a profit. We could probably get him for £35-40m and he's young (only turned 24 a couple of months ago) and versatile forward we need. Lots of CL experience too. Hopefully with CL football we could move for him and he'd be receptive